Sunday, November 04, 2012

Poll Watch: UNH/WMUR New Hampshire 2012 Presidential Survey

UNH/WMUR New Hampshire 2012 Presidential Poll
  • Barack Obama-Joe Biden 47% (49%) [47%] {52%} (45%) [49%] {49%} (51%) [50%] {44%} (42%) [43%] {43%} (41%)
  • Mitt Romney-Paul Ryan 47% (41%) [41%] {37%} (40%) [46%] {45%} (42%) [40%] {47%} (50%) [47%] {50%} (49%)
Including Leaners
  • Barack Obama-Joe Biden 48% (51%) [50%] {54%}
  • Mitt Romney-Paul Ryan 48% (42%) [44%] {39%}
Survey of 502 likely voters was conducted October 31 - November 2, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4.4 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted October 17-21, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted September 30 - October 6, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 27-30, 2012 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 4-10, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted August 1-12, 2012 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted July 5-15, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 9-20, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted January 25 - February 2, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 15-22, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 26 - October 6, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted June 21 - July 1, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 15- May 2, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 28 - February 7, 2011 are in parentheses.
Inside the numbers: 
Obama leads among women by 58% to 40% while Romney leads among men, 57% to 38%.
There is also a religious divide -- among regular church goers, Romney holds a 69% to 29% lead while Obama leads by 60% to 34% among people who never attend church services.
Obama currently has the support of 95% of New Hampshire Democrats, and Romney has the support of 95% of Republicans. Independents are breaking heavily to Romney -- 54% say they will vote forRomney while only 32% say they will vote for Obama. “The movement of Independents to Romney is the most significant factor in his making this race a dead heat,” said Andrew Smith, Director of the UNH Survey Center. “Two weeks ago, independents were divided in who they would support.”

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Romney has all McCain states + Indiana, North Carolina, Florida, and Colorado locked up. Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Michigan are tied. If he takes any of them, he wins. Wisconsin and Minnesota are also tied. If he wins either of those plus any of the remaining toss-up states, he wins. New Hampshire could deliver the winning votes for Romney. Personally though, I think it will merely pad his comfortable victory.