Poll Watch: Washington Post/ABC News 2012 Presidential Survey

Washington Post/ABC News 2012 Presidential Survey

REPUBLICAN NOMINATION

• Mitt Romney 26% {21%} [16%]
• Sarah Palin 16% {17%} [5%]
• Michele Bachmann 13% {3%} [1%]
• Rick Perry 8% {3%}
• Ron Paul 7% {6%} [2%]
• Herman Cain 7% {4%}
• Newt Gingrich 4% {6%} [2%]
• Jon Huntsman 3% {1%} [0%]
• Tim Pawlenty 2% {4%} [1%]
• Rick Santorum 2% {1%} [0%]
• Other 1% {3%} [5%]
• No one/None of them 1% {5%} [12%]
• No opinion 8% {14%} [33%]

If Sarah Palin doesn't run

• Mitt Romney 30%
• Michele Bachmann 17% 
• Ron Paul 10% 
• Rick Perry 8% 
• Herman Cain 7% 
• Newt Gingrich 6% 
• Jon Huntsman 3%
• Rick Santorum 3%
• Tim Pawlenty 3% 
• Other 1% 
• No one/None of them 2% 
• No opinion 9%

If Rick Perry doesn't run

• Mitt Romney 28%
• Sarah Palin 17%
• Michele Bachmann 14% 
• Ron Paul 8% 
• Herman Cain 7% 
• Newt Gingrich 4% 
• Jon Huntsman 3%
• Rick Santorum 3%
• Tim Pawlenty 2% 
• Other 1% 
• No one/None of them 2% 
• No opinion 8%

Regardless of who you may support, which of the Republican candidates do you think is the strongest leader?

• Mitt Romney 27%
• Sarah Palin 14%
• Newt Gingrich 11%
• Michele Bachmann 10%
• Rick Perry 9%
• Ron Paul 5%
• Herman Cain 4%
• Jon Huntsman 3%
• Rick Santorum 2%
• Tim Pawlenty 1%

Regardless of who you may support, which of the Republican candidates do you think has the best experience to be president?

• Mitt Romney 28%
• Newt Gingrich 14%
• Sarah Palin 9%
• Rick Perry 8%
• Michele Bachmann 7%
• Ron Paul 6%
• Herman Cain 4%
• Jon Huntsman 3%
• Rick Santorum 2%
• Tim Pawlenty 1%

Regardless of who you may support, which of the Republican candidates do you think best understands the problems of people like you?

• Sarah Palin 21%
• Mitt Romney 18%
• Michele Bachmann 12%
• Ron Paul 8%
• Rick Perry 5%
• Herman Cain 5%
• Newt Gingrich 3%
• Jon Huntsman 3%
• Rick Santorum 3%
• Tim Pawlenty 2%

Regardless of who you may support, which of the Republican candidates do you think is the closest to you on the issues?

• Mitt Romney 20%
• Sarah Palin 17%
• Michele Bachmann 12%
• Ron Paul 9%
• Herman Cain 6%
• Newt Gingrich 5%
• Rick Perry 5%
• Jon Huntsman 3%
• Rick Santorum 3%
• Tim Pawlenty 1%

Regardless of who you may support, which of the Republican candidates do you think best reflects the core values of the Republican Party?

• Sarah Palin 19%
• Mitt Romney 18%
• Michele Bachmann 13%
• Newt Gingrich 9%
• Ron Paul 7%
• Rick Perry 7%
• Herman Cain 4%
• Rick Santorum 3%
• Jon Huntsman 1%
• Tim Pawlenty 1%

Thinking ahead to November 2012: Which Republican presidential candidate do you think has the best chance to defeat Barack Obama in the general election?

• Mitt Romney 32%
• Sarah Palin 12%
• Michele Bachmann 8%
• Rick Perry 7%
• Newt Gingrich 5%
• Ron Paul 3%
• Jon Huntsman 3%
• Herman Cain 2%
• Tim Pawlenty 2%
• Rick Santorum 2%

GENERAL ELECTION

• Barack Obama 49% {46%} [49%]
• Mitt Romney 47% {49%} [45%]

• Barack Obama 52%
• Ron Paul 42%

• Barack Obama 53%
• Rick Perry 40%

• Barack Obama 55% {51%} [52%]
• Michele Bachmann 40% {40%} [38%]

What is your view of the Tea Party political movement – would you say you support it strongly, support it somewhat, oppose it somewhat or oppose it strongly?

• Strongly support 13% {13%} [16%]
• Somewhat support 31% {33%} [26%]
• Somewhat oppose 23% {21%} [21%]
• Strongly oppose 24% {24%} [27%]

Survey of registered voters was conducted July 14-17, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 3.5 percentage points among all registered voters; +/ 5.5 percentage points among Republican voters. Party ID breakdown: 32% {31%} [32%] Democrat; 26% {25%} [22%] Republican; 34% {39%} [41%] Independent. Political ideology: 40% {36%} [39%] Moderate; 35% {40%} [36%] Conservative; 23% {22%} [21%] Liberal. Results from the poll conducted June 2-5, 2011 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted April 14-17, 2011 are in square brackets.  

Inside the numbers:

While 29 percent of Romney’s supporters favor him “strongly,” Palin, Michele Bachman and Ron Paul – who follow Romney numerically – have 39 percent strong support combined. And while 54 percent of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents are now satisfied with their choice of candidates – up 7 points from last month – that’s still well below the level of satisfaction at this time in 2007, 65 percent. 

Palin is essentially tied with Romney among evangelical white Protestants, for example, while Bachmann runs evenly with him among very conservative Republicans and among strong supporters of the Tea Party movement. Further suggesting a motivated base, Bachmann also runs evenly with Romney among leaned Republicans who are following the presidential race very closely. 

Romney, for his part, continues to do particularly well among higher-income and more-educated leaned Republicans. 

On the horse race question, Palin scores 23 percent and Romney 22 percent among non-college Republicans, and Romney leads 32 to 9 percent among college graduates.

In Obama vs. Romney, the main change is among independents, the key swing voters in national elections. They divided by 44-48 percent Obama-Romney in June, vs. 52-42 percent now. Obama also is doing better now than a month ago among white Catholics (another swing voter group), women, moderates and middle- to upper-middle income earners. Notably, Romney’s lead among “angry” Americans has narrowed considerably – a 53-point margin vs. Obama last month, a 32-point margin now. 

Independents shy from Bachmann and Perry – they lose these swing voters by 18 and 15 points, respectively. Paul is another story; he trails Obama among independents by 52-44 percent, essentially the same as Romney’s result among independents. The difference is that with Paul as the nominee, 15 percent of Republicans defect to Obama; with Romney, it’s 7 percent.

Strong tea party supporters make up a little more than a quarter of all Republicans and GOP-leaning independents in this poll.