Tuesday, November 08, 2011

Poll Watch: Gallup 2012 GOP Favorability Survey

Gallup 2012 GOP Favorability Survey

Among Republicans/GOP-Leaning Independents Who Recognize Candidate


Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}
  • Herman Cain 76% {76%} (74%) [76%] {77%} (75%) [77%] {76%} (73%) [73%] {74%} (74%) [74%] {77%} (76%) [77%] {72%} / 18% {16%} (16%) [14%] {13%} (14%) [15%] {15%} (13%) [14%] {13%} (14%) [13%] {13%} (13%) [12%] {16%} {+58%}
  • Mitt Romney 68% {70%} (66%) [67%] {71%} (72%) [72%] {74%} (71%) [71%] {70%} (73%) [74%] {72%} (73%) [74%] {73%} / 24% {22%} (24%) [23%] {18%} (19%) [20%] {18%} (20%) [19%] {20%} (19%) [17%] {18%} (18%) [16%] {16%} {+44%}
  • Newt Gingrich 64% {64%} (65%) [67%] {66%} (63%) [64%] {61%} (61%) [61%] {60%} (57%) [53%] {56%} (57%) [56%] {55%} / 27% {28%} (27%) [27%] {27%} (30%) [30%] {31%} (33%) [31%] {34%} (35%) [36%] {34%} (34%) [36%] {36%} {+37%}
  • Rick Santorum 60% {58%} (58%) [62%] {62%} (61%) [65%] {65%} (60%) [63%] {62%} (62%) [64%] {62%} (62%) [67%] {69%} / 28% {27%} (25%) [23%] {24%} (23%) [19%] {21%} (22%) [23%] {23%} (20%) [19%] {20%} (20%) [18%] {15%} {+32%}
  • Rick Perry 58% {63%} (60%) [60%] {63%} (68%) [71%] {74%} (73%) [73%] {71%} (69%) [70%] {70%} (74%) [73%] {67%} / 33% {28%} (29%) [30%] {27%} (21%) [17%] {15%} (16%) [13%] {14%} (15%) [13%] {15%} (15%) [15%] {17%} {+25%}
  • Ron Paul 58% {57%} (55%) [53%] {53%} (56%) [57%] {57%} (59%) [61%] {60%} (61%) [63%] {65%} (65%) [61%] {62%} / 34% {34%} (34%) [36%] {35%} (33%) [32%] {34%} (30%) [27%] {28%} (27%) [25%] {24%} (24%) [25%] {25%} {+24%}
  • Michele Bachmann 55% {56%} (56%) [57%] {59%} (59%) [62%] {65%} (64%) [67%] {68%} (67%) [70%] {69%} (64%) [67%] {74%} / 37% {36%} (34%) [33%] {32%} (31%) [29%] {29%} (27%) [24%] {23%} (21%) [20%] {21%} (24%) [20%] {15%} {+18%}
  • Jon Huntsman 50% {47%} (46%) [52%] {54%} (50%) [51%] {53%} (53%) [50%] {48%} (50%) [51%] {50%} (55%) [55%] {55%} / 38% {36%} (36%) [34%] {31%} (31%) [32%] {32%} (34%) [34%] {35%} (31%) [27%] {28%} (25%) [24%] {26%} {+12%}
Herman Cain
  • Strongly Favorable 28% {32%} (33%) [35%] {35%} (31%) [27%] {25%} (24%) [26%] {28%} (29%) [26%] {24%} (27%) [29%] {26%}
  • Favorable 48% {44%} (41%) [41%] {42%} (44%) [50%] {51%} (49%) [47%] {46%} (45%) [48%] {53%} (49%) [48%] {46%}
  • Unfavorable 15% {13%} (13%) [12%] {12%} (13%) [14%] {13%} (11%) [12%] {12%} (13%) [12%] {12%} (11%) [10%] {15%}
  • Strongly Unfavorable 3% {3%} (3%) [2%] {1%} (1%) [1%] {2%} (2%) [2%] {1%} (1%) [1%] {1%} (2%) [2%] {1%}
Mitt Romney
  • Strongly Favorable 16% {16%} (16%) [19%] {18%} (17%) [17%] {19%} (19%) [15%] {15%} (18%) [17%] {17%} (18%) [21%] {19%}
  • Favorable 52% {54%} (50%) [48%] {53%} (55%) [55%] {55%} (52%) [56%] {55%} (55%) [57%] {55%} (55%) [53%] {54%}
  • Unfavorable 18% {18%} (20%) [19%] {14%} (16%) [17%] {15%} (17%) [16%] {16%} (15%) [14%] {15%} (15%) [13%] {14%}
  • Strongly Unfavorable 6% {4%} (4%) [4%] {4%} (3%) [3%] {3%} (3%) [3%] {4%} (4%) [3%] {3%} (3%) [3%] {2%}
Newt Gingrich
  • Strongly Favorable 19% {18%} (18%) [19%] {18%} (16%) [16%] {15%} (13%) [13%] {15%} (12%) [10%] {9%} (8%) [10%] {11%}
  • Favorable 45% {46%} (47%) [48%] {48%} (47%) [48%] {46%} (48%) [48%] {45%} (45%) [43%] {47%} (49%) [46%] {44%}
  • Unfavorable 22% {22%} (21%) [22%] {22%} (24%) [24%] {25%} (27%) [25%] {26%} (27%) [29%] {27%} (27%) [29%] {29%}
  • Strongly Unfavorable 5% {6%} (6%) [5%] {5%} (6%) [6%] {6%} (6%) [6%] {8%} (8%) [7%] {7%} (7%) [7%] {7%}
Rick Santorum
  • Strongly Favorable 10% {12%} (11%) [12%] {12%} (12%) [13%] {12%} (11%) [13%] {13%} (9%) [9%] {9%} (11%) [13%] {13%}
  • Favorable 50% {46%} (47%) [50%] {50%} (49%) [52%] {53%} (49%) [50%] {49%} (53%) [55%] {53%} (51%) [54%] {56%}
  • Unfavorable 24% {23%} (22%) [21%] {22%} (20%) [17%] {19%} (19%) [20%] {20%} (18%) [17%] {16%} (16%) [16%] {14%}
  • Strongly Unfavorable 4% {4%} (3%) [2%] {2%} (3%) [2%] {2%} (3%) [3%] {3%} (2%) [2%] {4%} (4%) [2%] {1%}
Rick Perry
  • Strongly Favorable 11% {13%} (11%) [11%] {13%} (19%) [25%] {27%} (27%) [29%] {27%} (25%) [25%] {24%} (26%) [26%] {23%}
  • Favorable 47% {50%} (49%) [49%] {50%} (49%) [46%] {47%} (46%) [44%] {44%} (44%) [45%] {46%} (48%) [47%] {44%}
  • Unfavorable 25% {21%} (22%) [23%] {21%} (17%) [14%] {12%} (12%) [10%] {12%} (13%) [11%] {14%} (13%) [12%] {14%}
  • Strongly Unfavorable 8% {7%} (7%) [7%] {6%} (4%) [3%] {3%} (4%) [3%] {2%} (2%) [2%] {1%} (2%) [3%] {3%}
Ron Paul
  • Strongly Favorable 12% {12%} (11%) [10%] {9%} (10%) [12%] {13%} (12%) [11%] {11%} (14%) [15%] {13%} (13%) [12%] {11%}
  • Favorable 46% {45%} (44%) [43%] {44%} (46%) [45%] {44%} (47%) [50%] {49%} (47%) [48%] {52%} (52%) [49%] {51%}
  • Unfavorable 28% {28%} (28%) [28%] {28%} (27%) [26%] {28%} (25%) [23%] {23%} (22%) [21%] {20%} (20%) [21%] {22%}
  • Strongly Unfavorable 6% {6%} (6%) [8%] {7%} (6%) [6%] {6%} (5%) [4%] {5%} (5%) [4%] {4%} (4%) [4%] {3%}
Michele Bachmann
  • Strongly Favorable 10% {11%} (11%) [12%] {11%} (12%) [15%] {17%} (17%) [17%] {19%} (21%) [24%] {22%} (20%) [23%] {24%}
  • Favorable 45% {45%} (45%) [45%] {48%} (47%) [47%] {48%} (47%) [50%] {49%} (46%) [46%] {47%} (44%) [44%] {50%}
  • Unfavorable 29% {28%} (26%) [24%] {25%} (24%) [22%] {23%} (21%) [18%] {17%} (16%) [16%] {17%} (18%) [15%] {12%}
  • Strongly Unfavorable 8% {8%} (8%) [9%] {7%} (7%) [7%] {6%} (6%) [6%] {6%} (5%) [4%] {4%} (6%) [5%] {3%}
Jon Huntsman
  • Strongly Favorable 4% {4%} (4%) [6%] {5%} (4%) [6%] {6%} (5%) [5%] {6%} (6%) [7%] {8%} (8%) [6%] {7%}
  • Favorable 46% {43%} (42%) [46%] {49%} (46%) [45%] {47%} (48%) [45%] {42%} (44%) [44%] {42%} (47%) [49%] {48%}
  • Unfavorable 31% {30%} (30%) [29%] {27%} (26%) [27%] {28%} (28%) [28%] {30%} (27%) [24%] {26%} (22%) [20%] {21%}
  • Strongly Unfavorable 7% {6%} (6%) [5%] {4%} (5%) [5%] {4%} (6%) [6%] {5%} (4%) [3%] {2%} (3%) [4%] {5%}
Positive Intensity Score (Strongly Favorable minus Strongly Unfavorable)
  • Herman Cain +25% {+29%} (+30%) [+34%] {+34%} (+30%) [+26%] {+24%} (+22%) [+24%] {+27%} (+28%) [+25%] {+22%} (+25%) [+27%] {+25%}
  • Newt Gingrich +14% {+12%} (+12%) [+13%] {+13%} (+11%) [+10%] {+10%} (+7%) [+7%] {+7%} (+4%) [+3%] {+2%} (+1%) [+3%] {+4%}
  • Mitt Romney +10% {+12%} (+13%) [+15%] {+14%} (+13%) [+14%] {+15%} (+16%) [+12%] {+11%} (+14%) [+15%] {+14%} (+15%) [18%] {+17%}
  • Rick Santorum +6% {+8%} (+8%) [+10%] {+10%} (+8%) [+11%] {+10%} (+8%) [+10%] {+10%} (+7%) [+6%] {+5%} (+7%) [+11%] {+12%}
  • Ron Paul +6% {+6%} (+5%) [+2%] {+2%} (+3%) [+6%] {+7%} (+7%) [+6%] {+6%} (+9%) [+11%] {+9%} (+8%) [+9%] {+8%}
  • Michele Bachmann +3% {+3%} (+3%) [+4%] {+4%} (+5%) [+8%] {+11%} (+10%) [+11%] {+13%} (+16%) [+20%] {+18%} (+14%) [+18%] {+21%}
  • Rick Perry +3% {+6%} (+5%) [+4%] {+7%} (+15%) [+22%] {+24%} (+24%) [+25%] {+25%} (+22%) [+23%] {+23%} (+24%) [+23%] {+21%}
  • Jon Huntsman -3% {-2%} (-2%) [+1%] {+1%} (-1%) [+1%] {+2%} (-1%) [-2%] {+1%} (+2%) [+4%] {+6%} (+5%) [+3%] {+2%}
Name Recognition
  • Mitt Romney 89% {88%} (88%) [88%] {85%} (83%) [84%] {85%} (86%) [88%] {88%} (86%) [86%] {86%} (84%) [85%] {86%}
  • Michele Bachmann 86% {84%} (83%) [85%] {84%} (84%) [83%] {84%} (84%) [84%] {85%} (83%) [81%] {78%} (76%) [78%] {77%}
  • Newt Gingrich 85% {86%} (87%) [86%] {85%} (84%) [85%] {86%} (86%) [86%] {85%} (85%) [86%] {85%} (84%) [85%] {85%}
  • Rick Perry 83% {86%} (85%) [82%] {80%} (80%) [79%] {76%} (75%) [74%] {75%} (67%) [59%] {54%} (54%) [56%] {55%}
  • Herman Cain 81% {80%} (78%) [69%] {61%} (55%) [51%] {50%} (48%) [48%] {50%} (47%) [45%] {45%} (46%) [47%] {44%}
  • Ron Paul 80% {81%} (80%) [80%] {78%} (79%) [80%] {82%} (81%) [79%] {78%} (78%) [78%] {78%} (77%) [78%] {77%}
  • Rick Santorum 55% {57%} (57%) [55%] {54%} (54%) [53%] {53%} (54%) [52%] {52%} (51%) [51%] {51%} (50%) [50%] {49%}
  • Jon Huntsman 50% {52%} (50%) [49%] {46%} (43%) [44%] {45%} (46%) [46%] {43%} (40%) [38%] {39%} (40%) [40%] {41%}
Survey Methods
Results are based on telephone interviews conducted as part of Gallup Daily tracking October 24 - November 6, 2011, with random samples of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia. Questions asking about the 10 potential candidates measured in this research were rotated among randomly selected samples of Republicans each night; over the 14-day period, each candidate was rated by approximately 1,500 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents.

For the overall ratings of each potential candidate among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, including recognition scores, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.  
 
Results from the poll conducted October 17-30, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted October 10-23, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted October 3-16, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 26 - October 9, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 19 - October 2, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted September 12-25, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 5-18, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 29 - September 11, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted August 22 - September 4, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 15-28, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 8-21, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted August 1-14, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 25 - August 7, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 18-31, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted July 11-24, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 4-17, 2011 are in curly brackets.

2 comments:

Casper said...

Is it telephone, cellphone or both?


"Results are based on telephone interviews conducted as part of Gallup Daily tracking October 24 - November 6, 2011, with random samples of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, aged 18 and older,"

Argo Journal said...

According to Gallup:

Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones and cellular phones, with interviews conducted in Spanish for respondents who are primarily Spanish-speaking. Each sample includes a minimum quota of 400 cell phone respondents and 600 landline respondents per 1,000 national adults, with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents by region. Landline telephone numbers are chosen at random among listed telephone numbers. Cell phone numbers are selected using random-digit-dial methods. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday.