Poll Watch: Rasmussen New Hampshire 2012 Republican Primary Survey

Rasmussen New Hampshire 2012 GOP Primary Poll

• Mitt Romney 42% (33%) {34%} [41%] (39%)
• Ron Paul 18% (18%) {14%} [11%] (13%)
• Rick Santorum 13% (3%) {1%} [1%] (2%)
• Jon Huntsman 12% (10%) {11%} [7%] (7%)
• Newt Gingrich 8% (22%) {24%} [8%] (4%)  
• Rick Perry 1% (3%) {2%} [4%] (18%) 
• Some other candidate 1%
• Undecided 6%

Survey of 750 likely Republican primary voters was conducted January 5, 2012. The margin of error is ± 4 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted December 12, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted November 28, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted October 25, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 21, 2011 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

Given his lead, Romney appears comfortably ahead since 61% of primary voters in the Granite State say they are already certain of their vote. But 33% say they still could change their minds. Those whose minds are made up include 71% of Romney voters and 70% of Paul supporters. Fifty-nine percent (59%) of Huntsman’s backers, 56% of Santorum supporters and 55% of Perry’s also say they are sure how they will vote on Tuesday. Just 49% of Gingrich’s voters say the same.

Romney is far and away the best-liked of the GOP presidential hopefuls as far as New Hampshire primary voters are concerned. Seventy-two percent (72%) have a favorable opinion of the former governor from neighboring Massachusetts. Fifty-three percent (53%) have favorable views of both Santorum and Huntsman. Most primary voters share a more unfavorable opinion than favorable one of the other candidates – Paul, Perry and Gingrich – in the race.

Most primary voters (52%) in New Hampshire believe Romney would be the strongest candidate against President Obama. Far behind are 13% and 11% respectively who feel Paul and Gingrich would be the strongest GOP candidates. But Paul is the leader at 30% when these same voters are asked who would be the weakest Obama challenger.

Regardless of whom they hope wins the Republican nomination, 71% think Romney will be the eventual winner. All the other candidates have just single-digit support on this question.

If their favorite doesn’t win the nomination, 72% of New Hampshire GOP primary voters still plan to vote for the GOP candidate, but 14% will opt for Obama instead. Only five percent (5%) like the idea of a third-party candidate.

Romney barely edges Santorum 27% to 25% among voters in the state who say they are part of the Tea Party movement. But Romney carries a plurality (45%) of those voters who are not members of the grass roots movement, far outdistancing all his other opponents.

Romney also holds double-digit leads over his nearest competitor among Evangelical Christians, other Protestants, Catholics and GOP voters of other faiths.

Eighty-four percent (84%) of likely primary voters in New Hampshire think it is at least somewhat likely that the eventual Republican nominee will defeat Obama in November. This includes 47% who feel it is Very Likely. Nineteen percent (19%) of these voters now at least somewhat approve of the job the president is doing, while 80% disapprove.