Poll Watch: Rasmussen South Carolina 2012 Republican Primary Survey

Rasmussen South Carolina 2012 GOP Primary Poll

• Mitt Romney 28% [27%] (23%)
• Newt Gingrich 21% [18%] (15%)
• Rick Santorum 16% [24%] (1%)
• Ron Paul 16% [11%] (5%)
• Rick Perry 6% [5%] (9%)
• Jon Huntsman 5% [2%] (1%)
• Some other candidate 1% [2%]
• Undecided 8% [11%]

Are you certain you will vote for that candidate or is it possible that something come up that causes you to change your mind?

• Certain 52%
• Could change mind 41%
• No preference yet 8%

Note: Those primary voters who’ve already made up their minds include 63% of Paul’s supporters, 61% of both Romney and Gingrich voters and 57% of Huntsman’s backers. Just 44% of Santorum’s voters and 33% of Perry’s have made their final decision.

Suppose your favorite candidate does not win the nomination. When the general election is held, would you be most likely to vote for the Republican candidate, President Barack Obama, or a third party candidate?

• Republican candidate 80%
• President Barack Obama 6%
• Third party candidate 7%

Note: As is found nationally and in other states, a sizable number (26%) of Paul supporters in South Carolina say they will vote third party if that’s the case. 

Survey of 750 likely Republican primary voters was conducted January 12, 2012.  The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted January 5, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 1, 2011 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

Among likely primary voters who describe themselves as Very Conservative, Gingrich and Santorum each earn 23% of the vote, while Romney runs third with 18%. However, among Somewhat Conservative voters in South Carolina, Romney leads by 16.

Among Tea Party voters, Gingrich runs first on the ballot with 26% support, followed by Santorum at 20%, Paul at 18% and Romney in fourth with 16%. But Romney outpolls Gingrich two-to-one – 35% to 17% - among those who say they are not part of the grass roots movement.

Romney also leads among all religious groups except Evangelical Christians. Among these voters, Gingrich picks up 25% support, Santorum 23% and Romney 20%.

Regardless of the candidate they support, 68% of likely GOP primary voters in the Palmetto State expect Romney to be the eventual nominee, with no one else even close. A plurality (43%) thinks Romney would be the strongest GOP candidate to oppose President Obama, followed by Gingrich who is seen as the strongest challenger by 23%. Paul is seen as the weakest challenger to Obama by South Carolina primary voters and GOP voters nationally.

Romney is viewed favorably by 68% of likely South Carolina Republican primary voters, followed by Santorum at 63%, Gingrich at 56%, Perry at 48%, Paul at 43% and Huntsman at 35%.

Only nine percent (9%) of primary voters in the state at least somewhat approve of the job Obama is doing as president, and 84% think it’s at least somewhat likely that the Republican nominee will win in November. The latter includes 51% who say it is Very Likely.