Poll Watch: Rasmussen South Carolina 2012 Republican Primary Survey

Rasmussen South Carolina 2012 GOP Primary Poll

• Mitt Romney 35% {28%} [27%] (23%)
• Newt Gingrich 21% {21%} [18%] (15%)
• Rick Santorum 16% {16%} [24%] (1%)
• Ron Paul 16% {16%} [11%] (5%)
• Rick Perry 5% {6%} [5%] (9%)
• Undecided 8% {8%} [11%]

Are you certain you will vote for that candidate or is it possible that something come up that causes you to change your mind?

• Certain 59% {52%}
• Could change mind 33% {41%}
• No preference yet 8% {8%}

Note: The 59% who are certain how they will vote in the primary includes 69% of Romney supporters, 65% of Gingrich backers, 63% of Santorum’s voters, 58% of Paul’s and 54% of Perry’s.

Survey of 750 likely Republican primary voters was conducted January 16, 2012.  The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted January 12, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 5, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 1, 2011 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

Romney has now moved into a tie with Gingrich among voters in the state who call themselves Very Conservative and continues to run well ahead among those who are Somewhat Conservative. Sixty-two percent (62%) of all GOP voters in the state view Romney’s business record as a reason to support him. 

Among primary voters in the Palmetto State, 39% think Romney would do a better job managing the economy, followed by Gingrich with 23% support and Paul at 19%. The rest of the field is in single digits. 

Regardless of which candidate they favor, 69% of likely South Carolina Primary voters continue to think Romney will win the GOP nomination. A plurality (49%) believes he would be the strongest challenger to Obama, while primary voters still see Paul as the weakest potential challenger. Eighty-seven percent (87%) say the GOP candidate is likely to win the election in November, with 54% who believe it’s Very Likely. 

Romney is the most popular of the Republican candidates in South Carolina, with favorables of 68%. He swaps places with Santorum who was the most popular last week and is now viewed favorably by 64%. Gingrich is regarded favorably by 55%, Perry by 51% and Paul by 45%. 

Santorum has now faded among Tea Party voters in the state, running third with 19% support after leading among this group in the prior survey. Gingrich is now first among Tea Party voters with 30% support, followed by Romney at 27%. Romney has a two-to-one lead or better over his rivals among voters who are not members of the grassroots movement. 

Romney now also leads among all religious demographic groups after running second to Santorum late last week among Evangelical Christians.