Poll Watch: UNH/WMUR New Hampshire 2012 Republican Primary Survey

UNH/WMUR New Hampshire 2012 GOP Primary Poll

• Mitt Romney 44% [39%] (42%) {37%} [35%] (41%) {33%} [36%] (40%)
• Ron Paul 20% [17%] (12%) {9%} [7%] (6%) {9%} [6%] (5%)
• Newt Gingrich 8% [17%] (15%) {4%} [1%] (3%) {7%} [4%] (6%)
• Rick Santorum 8% [3%] (1%) {2%} [1%] (3%) {2%} [0%] (1%)
• Jon Huntsman 7% [11%] (8%) {8%} [2%] (3%) {4%} [0%]
• Buddy Roemer 1% [0%] (1%) {0%} [0%] (0%) {0%}
• Rick Perry 1% [1%] (4%) {4%} [4%]
• Don't know 8% [8%] (11%) {10%} [19%] (13%) {17%} [14%] (10%)

Pre-Iowa Caucus (January 2-3, 2012) [N=313]

• Mitt Romney 46%
• Ron Paul 23%
  
• Jon Huntsman 8%
• Newt Gingrich 7%
• Rick Santorum 4%
  
• Rick Perry 1%
• Buddy Roemer 0% 
• Don't know 10%

Post-Iowa Caucus (January 4-5, 2012) [N=318]

• Mitt Romney 43%
• Ron Paul 18%
  
• Rick Santorum 11%
• Newt Gingrich 9%
• Jon Huntsman 7%
• Rick Perry 2% 
• Buddy Roemer 1%
• Don't know 7%

Have you definitely decided who you will vote for in the New Hampshire primary … are you leaning toward someone … or have you considered some candidates but are still trying to decide? 

• Definitely decided 37% [26%] (16%) {11%} [8%] (8%) {4%}
• Leaning toward someone 26% [28%] (24%) {21%} [17%] (16%) {9%}
• Still trying to decide 37% [46%] (59%) {68%} [75%] (76%) {87%}

Second Choice

• Mitt Romney 17% [22%]
• Rick Santorum 15%
• Newt Gingrich 13% [21%]
• Ron Paul 13% [9%]
• Other 15% [15%]
• No second choice 21% [22%]
• Don't know 6% [5%]

Regardless of who you vote for, who do you think will win the primary?

• Mitt Romney 77% [67%] (75%) {65%}
• Ron Paul 6% [3%] (4%) {4%}
• Newt Gingrich 2% [15%] (4%) {0%}
• Rick Santorum 2% [1%] (0%) {0%}
• Jon Huntsman 1% [1%] (1%) {1%}
• Buddy Roemer 0% [0%] (0%) {0%}
• Rick Perry 0% [3%] (1%) {4%}

Who has the best chance of beating President Obama in November?

• Mitt Romney 59% [55%] (57%) {52%}
• Newt Gingrich 7% [18%] (10%) {1%}
• Ron Paul 6% [5%] (3%) {5%}
• Jon Huntsman 3% [4%] (3%) {2%}
• Rick Santorum 2% [0%] (0%) {0%}
• Rick Perry 0% [0%] (1%) {7%}
• Buddy Roemer 0% [0%] (0%) {0%}

Survey of 631 likely Republican primary voters was conducted January 2-5, 2012.  The margin of error is +/- 3.9 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted December 12-19, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 15-22, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted September 26 - October 6, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted June 21 - July 1, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted June 1-8, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted May 18-22, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 15- May 2, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 28 - February 7, 2011 are in parentheses.