Poll Watch: Washington Post/ABC News 2012 Republican Nomination Survey

Washington Post/ABC News 2012 GOP Nomination Poll

• Mitt Romney 36% [30%] (25%) {25%} [25%] (30%)
• Newt Gingrich 16% [30%] (12%) {9%} [5%] (6%) 
• Ron Paul 16% [15%] (9%) {9%} [10%] (10%) 
• Rick Santorum 13% [4%] (2%) {2%} [3%] (3%)
• Rick Perry 9% [6%] (14%) {17%} [30%] (8%)
• Other 1% [0%] (0%) {2%} [2%] (1%) 
• No one/None of them 1% [1%] (2%) {4%} [4%] (2%) 
• Would not vote 1% [1%] (1%) {1%} [1%] (1%)
• No opinion 7% [4%] (8%) {7%} [5%] (9%)

(Among Romney voters) Will you definitely vote for Mitt Romney, or is there a chance you could change your mind and vote for someone else? (IF CHANCE CHANGE MIND) Is there a GOOD CHANCE you'll change your mind, or would you say it's PRETTY UNLIKELY?

• Definitely vote 43%
• Chance will change mind, but pretty unlikely 25%
• Good chance will change mind 28%

Second Choice

• Newt Gingrich 26% [21%] (14%)
• Mitt Romney 24% [22%] (21%)
• Rick Santorum 16% [7%] (3%)
• Ron Paul 14% [13%] (9%)
• Rick Perry 11% [10%] (11%)
• Other 3% [2%] (1%)
• No one/None of them 3% [6%] (4%)
• Would not vote 1% [1%] (1%)
• No opinion 3% [5%] (5%)

Just your best guess, who do you think will win the Republican nomination for president?

• Mitt Romney 72% [40%]
• Newt Gingrich 7% [35%]
• Rick Perry 5% [3%]
• Ron Paul 4% [6%]
• Rick Santorum 2% [0%]
• No opinion 9% [8%]

Regardless of who you may support, which of the Republican candidates do you think:

Has the best experience to be president

• Newt Gingrich 34% [43%] (16%)
  
• Mitt Romney 30% [23%] (27%)
• Ron Paul 11% [8%] (6%)
• Rick Perry 7% [5%] (8%)
• Rick Santorum 6% [1%] (2%)

Has the best chance to defeat Barack Obama in the general election

• Mitt Romney 57% [38%] (33%) [20%] (32%)
  
• Newt Gingrich 10% [28%] (5%) [5%] (6%)
• Ron Paul 7% [9%] (3%) [4%] (3%)
• Rick Perry 5% [3%] (11%) [30%] (6%)
• Rick Santorum 5% [0%] (0%) [1%] (1%)

Best reflects the core values of the Republican Party

• Mitt Romney 26% [23%] (20%) [18%] (19%)
• Newt Gingrich 25% [23%] (19%) [6%] (9%)
• Rick Santorum 13% [5%] (3%) [4%] (3%)
• Rick Perry 10% [7%] (10%) [19%] (7%)
• Ron Paul 9% [10%] (4%) [6%] (8%)

Is the most likely to stand up for what he or she believes in

• Mitt Romney 24% [20%]
• Newt Gingrich 19% [23%]
• Ron Paul 19% [16%]
• Rick Santorum 12% [4%]
• Rick Perry 11% [6%]

Regardless of who you may support, which of the Republican candidates do you trust most to handle:

The economy

• Mitt Romney 35% [31%] (22%) [22%]
• Newt Gingrich 17% [25%] (13%) [7%]
• Ron Paul 14% [13%] (7%) [8%]
• Rick Perry 8% [7%] (10%) [22%]
• Rick Santorum 8% [1%] (1%) [2%]

The federal budget deficit

• Mitt Romney 33% [25%]
• Newt Gingrich 20% [25%]
• Ron Paul 15% [15%]
• Rick Santorum 8% [2%]
• Rick Perry 7% [6%]

International affairs

• Newt Gingrich 31% 
• Mitt Romney 25%
• Ron Paul 10%
• Rick Santorum 7%
• Rick Perry 7%

Healthcare

• Mitt Romney 28% [25%]
• Newt Gingrich 18% [23%]
• Ron Paul 15% [14%]
• Rick Santorum 10% [3%]
• Rick Perry 6% [6%]

If elected, do you think Ron Paul would pursue policies that most people in this country would accept, or do you think he would pursue policies that most people would find unacceptable?

• Accept 38% [42%]
  
• Find unacceptable 50% [46%]

For each item I name, please tell me if it is a major reason to support that candidate, a major reason to oppose that candidate, or not a major factor?

Mitt Romney’s policies on health care when he was governor of Massachusetts

• Major reason to support 21% [28%]
• Major reason to oppose 27% [36%]
• Not a major factor 36% [27%]

Ron Paul’s opposition to U.S. military interventions overseas

• Major reason to support 25% [29%]
• Major reason to oppose 49% [45%]
• Not a major factor 19% [20%]

Survey of registered Republicans and GOP-leaning independents was conducted January 12-15, 2012.  The margin of error is +/- 5.5 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted December 15-18, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted October 31 - November 3, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conductedSeptember 29 - October 2, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 29 - September 1, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 14-17, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted June 2-5, 2011 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted April 14-17, 2011 are in square brackets.