Poll Watch: UNH/WMUR New Hampshire 2014 Senatorial Survey

UNH/WMUR New Hampshire 2014 Senate Poll

• Jeanne Shaheen (D) 49% {50%} [47%] (46%) {52%} [45%] (47%) 
• Scott Brown (R) 48% {42%} [41%] (44%) {40%} [39%] (37%)

Survey of 757 likely voters was conducted October 29 - November 2, 2014.  The margin of error is +/- 3.6 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted October 22-26, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 29 - October 5, 2014 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 7-17, 2014 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted June 19 - July 1, 2014 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted April 1-9, 2014 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 21-26, 2014 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

If the election were held today, 46% of likely voters say they would vote for Shaheen, 43% would vote for Brown, 2% say they will vote for some other candidate and 10% are undecided. When undecided voters are asked which candidate they lean toward, the race becomes even closer – 47% say they will vote for Shaheen, 45% for Brown, 3% for some other candidate, and 6% remain undecided. When undecided voters are allocated to the candidate they are most likely to support, the final UNH prediction for the NH Senate race is 49% for Shaheen and 48% for Brown.

Almost all likely voters (90%) are firm in their choice while 10% say they could change their minds. Among voters who are firm in their choice, 53% say they will vote for Shaheen and 46% say they will vote for Brown. Among voters who say they might change their minds, 56% say they plan to vote for Brown and 30% say they will vote for Shaheen.