skip to main |
skip to sidebar
Gallup 2012 GOP Nomination Daily Tracking Poll
- Mitt Romney 31% {29%} [27%] (27%) {26%} [24%] (26%) {27%} [25%] (24%) {23%} [22%] (21%) {23%} [23%] (24%) {24%} [24%] (24%) {23%} [22%] (23%) {23%} [23%] (23%) {25%} [23%] (22%)
- Rick Santorum 18% {16%} [15%] (11%) {8%} [6%] (5%) {4%} [4%] (3%) {3%} [3%] (4%) {4%} [4%] (4%) {4%} [4%] (4%) {4%} [4%] (3%) {2%} [3%] (2%) {2%} [3%] (3%)
- Newt Gingrich 16% {17%} [19%] (19%) {22%} [23%] (24%) {23%} [25%] (25%) {26%} [26%] (27%) {25%} [25%] (26%) {28%} [28%] (29%) {31%} [31%] (33%) {33%} [35%] (37%) {34%} [36%] (37%)
- Ron Paul 13% {12%} [12%] (13%) {13%} [13%] (11%) {11%} [11%] (11%) {12%} [13%] (12%) {12%} [12%] (11%) {10%} [10%] (10%) {9%} [8%] (8%) {9%} [9%] (9%) {10%} [9%] (8%)
- Rick Perry 6% {6%} [6%] (6%) {6%} [7%] (7%) {8%} [8%] (8%) {8%} [8%] (7%) {8%} [8%] (7%) {6%} [6%] (5%) {6%} [7%] (6%) {6%} [6%] (6%) {5%} [6%] (7%)
- Jon Huntsman 1% {1%} [2%] (2%) {2%} [2%] (2%) {2%} [1%] (2%) {1%} [1%] (1%) {2%} [2%] (2%) {2%} [2%] (2%) {2%} [2%] (2%) {2%} [2%] (1%) {1%} [1%] (1%)
Survey of at least 1,000 registered Republicans and Republican-leaning independents was conducted January 3-7, 2012. The margin of error is ± 3 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted January 2-6, 2012 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted December 29, 2011 - January 5, 2011 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted December 28, 2011 - January 4, 2012 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted December 27, 2011 - January 3, 2012 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted December 26, 2011 - January 2, 2012 are in Results from the poll conducted December 23-29, 2011 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted December 22-28, 2011 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted December 21-27, 2011 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted December 20-26, 2011 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted December 19-23, 2011 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted December 18-22, 2011 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted December 17-21, 2011 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted December 15-20, 2011 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted December 14-19, 2011 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted December 13-18, 2011 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted December 12-17, 2011 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted December 11-16, 2011 are in Results from the poll conducted December 10-14, 2011 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted December 9-13, 2011 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted December 8-12, 2011 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted December 7-11, 2011 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted December 6-10, 2011 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted December 5-9, 2011 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted December 4-8, 2011 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted December 3-7, 2011 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted December 2-6, 2011 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted December 1-5, 2011 are in parentheses.
Suffolk University/7NEWS New Hampshire 2012 GOP Primary Poll
- Mitt Romney 35% {39%} [40%] (41%) {41%} [38%] (41%) {41%} [36%] (35%)
- Ron Paul 20% {17%} [17%] (18%) {15%} [8%] (14%) {14%} [8%] (8%)
- Jon Huntsman 11% {9%} [8%] (7%) {9%} [13%] (9%) {10%} [4%] (0%)
- Newt Gingrich 9% {10%} [9%] (7%) {11%} [20%] (14%) {4%} [2%] (3%)
- Rick Santorum 8% {9%} [11%] (8%) {3%} [2%] (3%) {1%} [1%] (2%)
- Buddy Roemer 1% {0%} [0%] (1%) {1%} [2%] (1%) {1%} [0%] (0%)
- Rick Perry 1% {1%} [1%] (0%) {2%} [1%] (2%) {8%} [2%]
- Fred Karger 0% {0%} [0%] (0%) {0%} [0%] (1%) {0%} [0%] (0%)
- Undecided 15% {15%} [15%] (17%) {16%} [11%] (9%) {11%} [21%] (13%)
How likely are you to change your mind about your choice before the January Primary - would you say it's very likely you'll change your mind, somewhat likely you'll change your mind, or unlikely you'll change your mind?
- Very likely I'll change my mind 5% {4%} [2%] (3%) {7%} [7%] (9%)
- Somewhat likely I'll change my mind 25% {22%} [30%] (33%) {33%} [44%] (43%)
- Unlikely I'll change my mind 68% {72%} [67%] (63%) {50%} [45%] (42%)
Survey of 500 likely New Hampshire GOP primary voters was conducted January 6-7, 2012. Party ID: 58% {56%} [55%] (51%) {58%} Republican; 39% {40%} [42%] (46%) {38%} Independent; 1% {1%} [2%] (2%) {1%} Other. Ideology: 46% {50%} [53%] (49%) {49%} Conservative; 38% {34%} [33%] (39%) {34%} Moderate; Liberal 10% {9%} [7%] (6%) {14%}. Results from the poll conducted January 5-6, 2012 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted January 4-5, 2012 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted January 3-4, 2012 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted December 30-31, 2011 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted December 10-13, 2011 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted November 16-20, 2011 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted September 18-20, 2011 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted June 25-27, 2011 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted April 30 - May 2, 2011 are in parentheses.
PPP (D) South Carolina 2012 GOP Primary Poll
- Mitt Romney 30% (16%) {30%}
- Newt Gingrich 23% (8%) {15%}
- Rick Santorum 19% (4%)
- Ron Paul 9% (5%) {10%}
- Rick Perry 5% (36%)
- Jon Huntsman 4% (2%) {2%}
- Buddy Roemer 1%
- Someone else/Not sure 9% (7%) {11%}
Would you say you are strongly committed to that candidate, or might you end up supporting someone else?
- Strongly committed to that candidate 59%
- Might end up supporting someone else 41%
Second Choice
- Rick Santorum 21%
- Mitt Romney 16%
- Newt Gingrich 14%
- Rick Perry 10%
- Ron Paul 7%
- Jon Huntsman 5%
- Buddy Roemer 1%
- Someone else/Not sure 26%
If the Republican candidates for President were just Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum, who would you vote for?
- Mitt Romney 45%
- Rick Santorum 40%
- Not sure 15%
If the Republican candidates for President were just Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?
- Mitt Romney 49%
- Newt Gingrich 35%
- Not sure 16%
If the Republican candidates for President were just Mitt Romney and Rick Perry, who would you vote for?
- Mitt Romney 57%
- Rick Perry 29%
- Not sure 15%
If the Republican candidates for President were just Mitt Romney and Ron Paul, who would you vote for?
- Mitt Romney 67%
- Ron Paul 23%
- Not sure 10%
Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}
- Rick Santorum 63% (34%) {31%} [25%] / 21% (19%) {16%} [7%] {+42%}
- Mitt Romney 60% (52%) {56%} [60%] / 29% (32%) {27%} [22%] {+31%}
- Newt Gingrich 49% (42%) {37%} [54%] / 39% (40%) {44%} [25%] {+10%}
- Rick Perry 42% (65%) {24%} / 43% (15%) {11%} {-1%}
- Jon Huntsman 28% (11%) {10%} [9%] / 41% (26%) {20%} [4%] {-13%}
- Ron Paul 33% (35%) {38%} [47%] / 54% (35%) {31%} [19%] {-21%}
- Comfortable 57%
- Not comfortable 18%
- Not sure 25%
Among Evangelicals
- Comfortable 48%
- Not comfortable 23%
- Not sure 29%
Non-Evangelicals
- Comfortable 69%
- Not comfortable 11%
- Not sure 20%
Are you more or less likely to vote for a candidate endorsed by John McCain, or does it not make a difference?
- More likely 11%
- Less likely 30%
- Doesn't make a difference 41%
- Not sure 17%
Are you more or less likely to vote for a candidate endorsed by Lindsey Graham, or does it not make a difference?
- More likely 15%
- Less likely 27%
- Doesn't make a difference 41%
- Not sure 17%
Are you more or less likely to vote for a candidate endorsed by Jim DeMint, or does it not make a difference?
- More likely 31%
- Less likely 18%
- Doesn't make a difference 34%
- Not sure 17%
Are you more or less likely to vote for a candidate endorsed by Nikki Haley, or does it not make a difference?
- More likely 14%
- Less likely 25%
- Doesn't make a difference 42%
- Not sure 18%
Are you more or less likely to vote for a candidate endorsed by Mark Sanford, or does it not make a difference?
- More likely 13%
- Less likely 24%
- Doesn't make a difference 44%
- Not sure 19%
Do you consider yourself to be a member of the Tea Party?
Are you an Evangelical Christian, or not?
Survey of 1,112 likely South Carolina Republican primary voters was conducted January 5-7, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 2.9 percentage points. Party ID breakdown: 82% (80%) {78%} [81%] Republican; 14% (18%) {19%} [18%] Independent/Other; 3% (1%) {3%} [0%] Democrat. Political ideology: 41% (40%) {41%} Very conservative; 38% (39%) {36%} Somewhat conservative; 15% (16%) {17%} Moderate; 4% (4%) {3%} Somewhat liberal; 3% (1%) {3%} Very liberal. Results from the poll conducted August 25-28, 2011 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted June 2-5, 2011 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted January 28-30, 2011 are in square brackets.
ARG New Hampshire 2012 GOP Primary Poll
- Mitt Romney 40% [35%] (33%) {30%} [29%] (32%)
- Jon Huntsman 17% [13%] (8%) {10%} [0%] (0%)
- Ron Paul 16% [21%] (12%) {12%} [4%] (8%)
- Rick Santorum 12% [1%] (1%) {2%} [2%] (0%)
- Newt Gingrich 8% [16%] (22%) {4%} [7%] (8%)
- Rick Perry 1% [2%] (2%) {13%} [2%]
- Other 2%
- Undecided 4% [8%] (9%) {12%} [18%] (8%)
Among Republicans
- Mitt Romney 46% [44%] (36%) {35%} [33%] (37%)
- Ron Paul 14% [15%] (8%) {10%} [6%] (5%)
- Jon Huntsman 12% [5%] (5%) {7%} [0%] (0%)
- Newt Gingrich 10% [20%] (25%) {6%} [7%] (10%)
- Rick Santorum 10% [2%] (1%) {2%} [3%] (0%)
- Rick Perry 2% [3%] (3%) {13%} [2%]
- Other 2%
- Undecided 4% [8%] (9%) {10%} [15%] (6%)
Among GOP-Leaning Independents
- Mitt Romney 30% [22%] (26%) {19%} [20%] (20%)
- Jon Huntsman 24% [25%] (14%) {17%} [0%] (0%)
- Ron Paul 20% [30%] (19%) {15%} [10%] (15%)
- Rick Santorum 15% [0%] (0%) {3%} [0%] (0%)
- Newt Gingrich 5% [10%] (19%) {2%} [6%] (3%)
- Rick Perry 0% [0%] (1%) {14%} [2%]
- Other 1%
- Undecided 5% [8%] (9%) {13%} [15%] (7%)
Survey of 600 likely Republican primary voters (359 Republicans and 241 independents) was conducted January 6-7, 2012. The margin of error is ± 4 percentage points. Party ID breakdown: 60% [60%] (65%) {67%} [70%] Republican; 40% [40%] (35%) {33%} [30%] Independent. Results from the poll conducted December 11-14, 2011 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted November 16-20, 2011 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted September 16-21, 2011 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted July 9-13, 2011 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted April 16-21, 2011 are in parentheses.
Gallup 2012 GOP Nomination Daily Tracking Poll
- Mitt Romney 29% [27%] (27%) {26%} [24%] (26%) {27%} [25%] (24%) {23%} [22%] (21%) {23%} [23%] (24%) {24%} [24%] (24%) {23%} [22%] (23%) {23%} [23%] (23%) {25%} [23%] (22%)
- Newt Gingrich 17% [19%] (19%) {22%} [23%] (24%) {23%} [25%] (25%) {26%} [26%] (27%) {25%} [25%] (26%) {28%} [28%] (29%) {31%} [31%] (33%) {33%} [35%] (37%) {34%} [36%] (37%)
- Rick Santorum 16% [15%] (11%) {8%} [6%] (5%) {4%} [4%] (3%) {3%} [3%] (4%) {4%} [4%] (4%) {4%} [4%] (4%) {4%} [4%] (3%) {2%} [3%] (2%) {2%} [3%] (3%)
- Ron Paul 12% [12%] (13%) {13%} [13%] (11%) {11%} [11%] (11%) {12%} [13%] (12%) {12%} [12%] (11%) {10%} [10%] (10%) {9%} [8%] (8%) {9%} [9%] (9%) {10%} [9%] (8%)
- Rick Perry 6% [6%] (6%) {6%} [7%] (7%) {8%} [8%] (8%) {8%} [8%] (7%) {8%} [8%] (7%) {6%} [6%] (5%) {6%} [7%] (6%) {6%} [6%] (6%) {5%} [6%] (7%)
- Jon Huntsman 1% [2%] (2%) {2%} [2%] (2%) {2%} [1%] (2%) {1%} [1%] (1%) {2%} [2%] (2%) {2%} [2%] (2%) {2%} [2%] (2%) {2%} [2%] (1%) {1%} [1%] (1%)
Rasmussen 2012 GOP Nomination Poll
Which Republican presidential candidate would be the strongest opponent against Barack Obama in the general election?
- Mitt Romney 44%
- Newt Gingrich 17%
- Rick Santorum 15%
- Ron Paul 6%
- Jon Huntsman 3%
- Rick Perry 2%
Which Republican presidential candidate would be the weakest opponent against Barack Obama in the general election?
- Ron Paul 36%
- Jon Huntsman 19%
- Newt Gingrich 12%
- Rick Perry 11%
- Mitt Romney 5%
- Rick Santorum 5%
National survey of 1,000 likely GOP primary voters was conducted January 4, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points.
Suffolk University/7NEWS New Hampshire 2012 GOP Primary Poll
- Mitt Romney 39% [40%] (41%) {41%} [38%] (41%) {41%} [36%] (35%)
- Ron Paul 17% [17%] (18%) {15%} [8%] (14%) {14%} [8%] (8%)
- Newt Gingrich 10% [9%] (7%) {11%} [20%] (14%) {4%} [2%] (3%)
- Jon Huntsman 9% [8%] (7%) {9%} [13%] (9%) {10%} [4%] (0%)
- Rick Santorum 9% [11%] (8%) {3%} [2%] (3%) {1%} [1%] (2%)
- Rick Perry 1% [1%] (0%) {2%} [1%] (2%) {8%} [2%]
- Buddy Roemer 0% [0%] (1%) {1%} [2%] (1%) {1%} [0%] (0%)
- Fred Karger 0% [0%] (0%) {0%} [0%] (1%) {0%} [0%] (0%)
- Undecided 15% [15%] (17%) {16%} [11%] (9%) {11%} [21%] (13%)
How likely are you to change your mind about your choice before the January Primary - would you say it's very likely you'll change your mind, somewhat likely you'll change your mind, or unlikely you'll change your mind?
- Very likely I'll change my mind 4% [2%] (3%) {7%} [7%] (9%)
- Somewhat likely I'll change my mind 22% [30%] (33%) {33%} [44%] (43%)
- Unlikely I'll change my mind 72% [67%] (63%) {50%} [45%] (42%)
Survey of 500 likely New Hampshire GOP primary voters was conducted January 5-6, 2012. Party ID: 56% [55%] (51%) {58%} Republican; 40% [42%] (46%) {38%} Independent; 1% [2%] (2%) {1%} Other. Ideology: 50% [53%] (49%) {49%} Conservative; 34% [33%] (39%) {34%} Moderate; Liberal 9% [7%] (6%) {14%}. Results from the poll conducted January 4-5, 2012 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted January 3-4, 2012 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted December 30-31, 2011 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted December 10-13, 2011 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted November 16-20, 2011 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted September 18-20, 2011 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted June 25-27, 2011 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted April 30 - May 2, 2011 are in parentheses.
ARG South Carolina 2012 GOP Primary Poll
- Mitt Romney 31% (22%) {25%} [25%] (18%)
- Newt Gingrich 24% (33%) {8%} [3%] (9%)
- Rick Santorum 24% (1%) {1%} [2%] (1%)
- Ron Paul 9% (8%) {7%} [2%] (1%)
- Jon Huntsman 2% (3%) {0%} [0%] (0%)
- Rick Perry 2% (8%) {15%} [6%]
- Undecided 7% (12%) {12%} [15%] (11%)
Among Definite GOP Primary Voters
- Mitt Romney 32%
- Rick Santorum 26%
- Newt Gingrich 24%
- Ron Paul 8%
- Rick Perry 2%
- Jon Huntsman 1%
- Undecided 7%
Among Republicans
- Mitt Romney 30%
- Newt Gingrich 25%
- Rick Santorum 25%
- Ron Paul 9%
- Rick Perry 2%
- Jon Huntsman 1%
- Undecided 7%
Among Tea Party Supporters
- Newt Gingrich 33%
- Mitt Romney 30%
- Rick Santorum 19%
- Ron Paul 9%
- Jon Huntsman 1%
- Rick Perry 0%
- Undecided 8%
Among Non-Tea Party GOP Primary Voters
- Mitt Romney 32%
- Rick Santorum 27%
- Newt Gingrich 17%
- Ron Paul 10%
- Rick Perry 4%
- Jon Huntsman 2%
- Undecided 6%
Survey of 600 likely Republican primary voters (503 Republicans, 93 independents, and 4 Democrats) was conducted January 4-5, 2012. The margin of error is ± 4 percentage points. Party ID breakdown: Republican: 84% (74%) {81%} [79%] (76%); Independent: 16% (26%) {19%} [21%] (24%). Tea Party supporter: 46% (46%) {47%} [51%] (52%); Not a Tea Party supporter/Undecided: 54% (54%) {53%} [49%] (48%). Preference by Likely to Vote: Definite (10): 90%; Probably (7-9): 10%. Results from the poll conducted November 25-28, 2011 are in Results from the poll conducted October 5-10, 2011 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted July 12-17, 2011 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted April 18-23, 2011 are in parentheses.
NBC News-Marist New Hampshire 2012 GOP Primary Poll
- Mitt Romney 42% [39%] (45%)
- Ron Paul 22% [16%] (13%)
- Rick Santorum 13% [1%] (1%)
- Newt Gingrich 9% [23%] (4%)
- Jon Huntsman 9% [9%] (5%)
- Rick Perry 1% [3%] (7%)
- Undecided 5% [4%] (8%)
Second Choice
- Mitt Romney 19% [24%]
- Rick Santorum 18% [4%]
- Newt Gingrich 16% [24%]
- Jon Huntsman 13% [8%]
- Ron Paul 11% [11%]
- Rick Perry 6% [7%]
- Undecided 16% [9%]
Whom do you like the least?
- Newt Gingrich 27%
- Ron Paul 23%
- Rick Perry 17%
- Mitt Romney 13%
- Jon Huntsman 7%
- Rick Santorum 6%
- Undecided 6%
Please tell me if you would find each of the following candidates acceptable, acceptable but with reservations, or not acceptable as the Republican nominee for president:
Mitt Romney
- Acceptable 60% [63%]
- Acceptable but with reservations 23% [23%]
- Not acceptable 16% [16%]
Rick Santorum
- Acceptable 42%
- Acceptable but with reservations 30%
- Not acceptable 25%
Jon Huntsman
- Acceptable 31%
- Acceptable but with reservations 30%
- Not acceptable 33%
Ron Paul
- Acceptable 35% [38%]
- Acceptable but with reservations 21% [29%]
- Not acceptable 43% [31%]
Newt Gingrich
- Acceptable 29% [54%]
- Acceptable but with reservations 27% [25%]
- Not acceptable 44% [19%]
Rick Perry
- Acceptable 17% [24%]
- Acceptable but with reservations 26% [30%]
- Not acceptable 54% [42%]
Which one of the following candidates do you consider to be the true conservative?
- Ron Paul 28%
- Rick Santorum 26%
- Mitt Romney 12%
- Newt Gingrich 12%
- Jon Huntsman 5%
- Rick Perry 5%
- None 3%
- Undecided 7%
Which one of the following candidates do you think has the best chance to beat President Obama?
- Mitt Romney 65%
- Ron Paul 10%
- Rick Santorum 7%
- Newt Gingrich 7%
- Jon Huntsman 4%
- Rick Perry 1%
- None 2%
- Undecided 5%
Which is more important to you:
- A Republican nominee for president who is a true conservative 33%
- A Republican nominee for president who has the best chance to beat President Obama 61%
Survey of 711 likely GOP primary voters was conducted January 4-5, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 3.7 percentage points. Political ideology: 15% [15%] Very conservative; 42% [43%] Conservative; 38% [35%] Moderate; 4% [6%] Liberal; 1% [1%] Very liberal. Results from the poll conducted November 28-30, 2011 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted October 3-5, 2011 are in parentheses.
UNH/WMUR New Hampshire 2012 GOP Primary Poll
- Mitt Romney 44% [39%] (42%) {37%} [35%] (41%) {33%} [36%] (40%)
- Ron Paul 20% [17%] (12%) {9%} [7%] (6%) {9%} [6%] (5%)
- Newt Gingrich 8% [17%] (15%) {4%} [1%] (3%) {7%} [4%] (6%)
- Rick Santorum 8% [3%] (1%) {2%} [1%] (3%) {2%} [0%] (1%)
- Jon Huntsman 7% [11%] (8%) {8%} [2%] (3%) {4%} [0%]
- Buddy Roemer 1% [0%] (1%) {0%} [0%] (0%) {0%}
- Rick Perry 1% [1%] (4%) {4%} [4%]
- Don't know 8% [8%] (11%) {10%} [19%] (13%) {17%} [14%] (10%)
Pre-Iowa Caucus (January 2-3, 2012) [N=313]
- Mitt Romney 46%
- Ron Paul 23%
- Jon Huntsman 8%
- Newt Gingrich 7%
- Rick Santorum 4%
- Rick Perry 1%
- Buddy Roemer 0%
- Don't know 10%
Post-Iowa Caucus (January 4-5, 2012) [N=318]
- Mitt Romney 43%
- Ron Paul 18%
- Rick Santorum 11%
- Newt Gingrich 9%
- Jon Huntsman 7%
- Rick Perry 2%
- Buddy Roemer 1%
- Don't know 7%
Have you definitely decided who you will vote for in the New Hampshire primary … are you leaning toward someone … or have you considered some candidates but are still trying to decide?
- Definitely decided 37% [26%] (16%) {11%} [8%] (8%) {4%}
- Leaning toward someone 26% [28%] (24%) {21%} [17%] (16%) {9%}
- Still trying to decide 37% [46%] (59%) {68%} [75%] (76%) {87%}
Second Choice
- Mitt Romney 17% [22%]
- Rick Santorum 15%
- Newt Gingrich 13% [21%]
- Ron Paul 13% [9%]
- Other 15% [15%]
- No second choice 21% [22%]
- Don't know 6% [5%]
Regardless of who you vote for, who do you think will win the primary?
- Mitt Romney 77% [67%] (75%) {65%}
- Ron Paul 6% [3%] (4%) {4%}
- Newt Gingrich 2% [15%] (4%) {0%}
- Rick Santorum 2% [1%] (0%) {0%}
- Jon Huntsman 1% [1%] (1%) {1%}
- Buddy Roemer 0% [0%] (0%) {0%}
- Rick Perry 0% [3%] (1%) {4%}
Who has the best chance of beating President Obama in November?
- Mitt Romney 59% [55%] (57%) {52%}
- Newt Gingrich 7% [18%] (10%) {1%}
- Ron Paul 6% [5%] (3%) {5%}
- Jon Huntsman 3% [4%] (3%) {2%}
- Rick Santorum 2% [0%] (0%) {0%}
- Rick Perry 0% [0%] (1%) {7%}
- Buddy Roemer 0% [0%] (0%) {0%}
Survey of 631 likely Republican primary voters was conducted January 2-5, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 3.9 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted December 12-19, 2011 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted November 15-22, 2011 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted September 26 - October 6, 2011 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted June 21 - July 1, 2011 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted June 1-8, 2011 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted May 18-22, 2011 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted April 15- May 2, 2011 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted January 28 - February 7, 2011 are in parentheses.
CNN/TIME/ORC South Carolina 2012 GOP Primary Poll
- Mitt Romney 37% [20%] (25%)
- Rick Santorum 19% [4%] (1%)
- Newt Gingrich 18% [43%] (8%)
- Ron Paul 12% [6%] (12%)
- Rick Perry 5% [8%] (11%)
- Jon Huntsman 1% [1%] (1%)
- No opinion 6% [11%] (10%)
Would you say you will definitely support that candidate in 2012, or is it possible you would change your mind?
- Definitely support 44% [34%] (30%)
- Might change mind 49% [55%] (56%)
Survey of 485 likely Republicans primary voters was conducted January 4-5, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted November 29 - December 6, 2011 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted October 20-25, 2011 are in parentheses.
Gallup 2012 GOP Nomination Daily Tracking Poll
- Mitt Romney 27% (27%) {26%} [24%] (26%) {27%} [25%] (24%) {23%} [22%] (21%) {23%} [23%] (24%) {24%} [24%] (24%) {23%} [22%] (23%) {23%} [23%] (23%) {25%} [23%] (22%)
- Newt Gingrich 19% (19%) {22%} [23%] (24%) {23%} [25%] (25%) {26%} [26%] (27%) {25%} [25%] (26%) {28%} [28%] (29%) {31%} [31%] (33%) {33%} [35%] (37%) {34%} [36%] (37%)
- Rick Santorum 15% (11%) {8%} [6%] (5%) {4%} [4%] (3%) {3%} [3%] (4%) {4%} [4%] (4%) {4%} [4%] (4%) {4%} [4%] (3%) {2%} [3%] (2%) {2%} [3%] (3%)
- Ron Paul 12% (13%) {13%} [13%] (11%) {11%} [11%] (11%) {12%} [13%] (12%) {12%} [12%] (11%) {10%} [10%] (10%) {9%} [8%] (8%) {9%} [9%] (9%) {10%} [9%] (8%)
- Rick Perry 6% (6%) {6%} [7%] (7%) {8%} [8%] (8%) {8%} [8%] (7%) {8%} [8%] (7%) {6%} [6%] (5%) {6%} [7%] (6%) {6%} [6%] (6%) {5%} [6%] (7%)
- Jon Huntsman 2% (2%) {2%} [2%] (2%) {2%} [1%] (2%) {1%} [1%] (1%) {2%} [2%] (2%) {2%} [2%] (2%) {2%} [2%] (2%) {2%} [2%] (1%) {1%} [1%] (1%)
Suffolk University/7NEWS New Hampshire 2012 GOP Primary Poll
- Mitt Romney 40% (41%) {41%} [38%] (41%) {41%} [36%] (35%)
- Ron Paul 17% (18%) {15%} [8%] (14%) {14%} [8%] (8%)
- Rick Santorum 11% (8%) {3%} [2%] (3%) {1%} [1%] (2%)
- Newt Gingrich 9% (7%) {11%} [20%] (14%) {4%} [2%] (3%)
- Jon Huntsman 8% (7%) {9%} [13%] (9%) {10%} [4%] (0%)
- Rick Perry 1% (0%) {2%} [1%] (2%) {8%} [2%]
- Fred Karger 0% (0%) {0%} [0%] (1%) {0%} [0%] (0%)
- Buddy Roemer 0% (1%) {1%} [2%] (1%) {1%} [0%] (0%)
- Undecided 15% (17%) {16%} [11%] (9%) {11%} [21%] (13%)
How likely are you to change your mind about your choice before the January Primary - would you say it's very likely you'll change your mind, somewhat likely you'll change your mind, or unlikely you'll change your mind?
- Very likely I'll change my mind 2% (3%) {7%} [7%] (9%)
- Somewhat likely I'll change my mind 30% (33%) {33%} [44%] (43%)
- Unlikely I'll change my mind 67% (63%) {50%} [45%] (42%)
Survey of 500 likely New Hampshire GOP primary voters was conducted January 4-5, 2012. Party ID: 55% (51%) {58%} Republican; 42% (46%) {38%} Independent; 2% (2%) {1%} Other. Ideology: 53% (49%) {49%} Conservative; 33% (39%) {34%} Moderate; Liberal 7% (6%) {14%}. Results from the poll conducted January 3-4, 2012 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted December 30-31, 2011 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted December 10-13, 2011 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted November 16-20, 2011 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted September 18-20, 2011 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted June 25-27, 2011 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted April 30 - May 2, 2011 are in parentheses.
Rasmussen New Hampshire 2012 GOP Primary Poll
- Mitt Romney 42% (33%) {34%} [41%] (39%)
- Ron Paul 18% (18%) {14%} [11%] (13%)
- Rick Santorum 13% (3%) {1%} [1%] (2%)
- Jon Huntsman 12% (10%) {11%} [7%] (7%)
- Newt Gingrich 8% (22%) {24%} [8%] (4%)
- Rick Perry 1% (3%) {2%} [4%] (18%)
- Some other candidate 1%
- Undecided 6%
Survey of 750 likely Republican primary voters was conducted January 5, 2012. The margin of error is ± 4 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted December 12, 2011 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted November 28, 2011 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted October 25, 2011 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 21, 2011 are in parentheses. Given his lead, Romney appears comfortably ahead since 61% of primary voters in the Granite State say they are already certain of their vote. But 33% say they still could change their minds. Those whose minds are made up include 71% of Romney voters and 70% of Paul supporters. Fifty-nine percent (59%) of Huntsman’s backers, 56% of Santorum supporters and 55% of Perry’s also say they are sure how they will vote on Tuesday. Just 49% of Gingrich’s voters say the same.
Romney is far and away the best-liked of the GOP presidential hopefuls as far as New Hampshire primary voters are concerned. Seventy-two percent (72%) have a favorable opinion of the former governor from neighboring Massachusetts. Fifty-three percent (53%) have favorable views of both Santorum and Huntsman. Most primary voters share a more unfavorable opinion than favorable one of the other candidates – Paul, Perry and Gingrich – in the race.
Most primary voters (52%) in New Hampshire believe Romney would be the strongest candidate against President Obama. Far behind are 13% and 11% respectively who feel Paul and Gingrich would be the strongest GOP candidates. But Paul is the leader at 30% when these same voters are asked who would be the weakest Obama challenger.
Regardless of whom they hope wins the Republican nomination, 71% think Romney will be the eventual winner. All the other candidates have just single-digit support on this question.
If their favorite doesn’t win the nomination, 72% of New Hampshire GOP primary voters still plan to vote for the GOP candidate, but 14% will opt for Obama instead. Only five percent (5%) like the idea of a third-party candidate.
Romney barely edges Santorum 27% to 25% among voters in the state who say they are part of the Tea Party movement. But Romney carries a plurality (45%) of those voters who are not members of the grass roots movement, far outdistancing all his other opponents.
Romney also holds double-digit leads over his nearest competitor among Evangelical Christians, other Protestants, Catholics and GOP voters of other faiths.
Eighty-four percent (84%) of likely primary voters in New Hampshire think it is at least somewhat likely that the eventual Republican nominee will defeat Obama in November. This includes 47% who feel it is Very Likely. Nineteen percent (19%) of these voters now at least somewhat approve of the job the president is doing, while 80% disapprove.
Rasmussen South Carolina 2012 GOP Primary Poll
- Mitt Romney 27% (23%)
- Rick Santorum 24% (1%)
- Newt Gingrich 18% (15%)
- Ron Paul 11% (5%)
- Rick Perry 5% (9%)
- Jon Huntsman 2% (1%)
- Some other candidate 2%
- Undecided 11%
Survey of 750 likely Republican primary voters was conducted January 5, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted November 1, 2011 are in parentheses. Things remain fluid in South Carolina, however, with nearly half the state’s primary voters (48%) saying they still could change their minds. Just 41% are certain already of how they will vote. Those certain of their vote include 62% of Paul’s supporters, 51% of Perry’s backers, 50% of Romney voters. Just 43% of Santorum voters and 36% of Gingrich supporters are locked in at this point.
It’s important to note, too, that 66% of all likely Republican primary voters in South Carolina, regardless of whom they want to win, think Romney will ultimately win the party’s presidential nomination. Just 11% predict that Santorum will be the GOP nominee, while nine percent (9%) expect Gingrich to triumph. Forty-five percent (45%) say Romney would be the strongest Republican against President Obama versus 18% who feel that way about Gingrich and 16% who say that of Santorum.
Santorum is the best liked of the candidates, with 72% favorables among likely primary voters in the state. Nearly as many (68%) share a favorable opinion of Romney, followed by Gingrich who is viewed favorably by 59%. Fifty percent (50%) like Perry, while 55% have an unfavorable opinion of Paul. Huntsman, too, is viewed more unfavorably than favorably, but 27% of primary voters don’t know enough about him to venture any kind of opinion.
Paul and Huntsman are seen as the two weakest potential GOP candidates against Obama.
Santorum outpolls both Romney and Gingrich two-to-one among Tea Party voters. Romney holds a similar lead over his top two rivals among those who are not part of the movement.
Evangelical Christian voters prefer Santorum over Romney 33% to 17%. But Romney leads among other Protestants, Catholics and voters of other faiths with roughly one-third of the votes from each group.
Even if their personal favorite comes up short in the primary process, just five percent (5%) of Republican primary voters in South Carolina are interested in a third party candidate. Eighty-four percent (84%) plan to stick with the Republican nominee even if their favorite loses the nomination, while six percent (6%) would vote for Obama.
Eighty-seven percent (87%) of South Carolina GOP primary voters think it’s at least somewhat likely that their party’s candidate will win the White House in November, with 48% who say it’s Very Likely.
Only nine percent (9%) of these voters even somewhat approve of the job Obama is doing as president.
Suffolk University/7NEWS New Hampshire 2012 GOP Primary Poll
- Mitt Romney 41% {41%} [38%] (41%) {41%} [36%] (35%)
- Ron Paul 18% {15%} [8%] (14%) {14%} [8%] (8%)
- Rick Santorum 8% {3%} [2%] (3%) {1%} [1%] (2%)
- Newt Gingrich 7% {11%} [20%] (14%) {4%} [2%] (3%)
- Jon Huntsman 7% {9%} [13%] (9%) {10%} [4%] (0%)
- Buddy Roemer 1% {1%} [2%] (1%) {1%} [0%] (0%)
- Fred Karger 0% {0%} [0%] (1%) {0%} [0%] (0%)
- Rick Perry 0% {2%} [1%] (2%) {8%} [2%]
- Undecided 17% {16%} [11%] (9%) {11%} [21%] (13%)
How likely are you to change your mind about your choice before the January Primary - would you say it's very likely you'll change your mind, somewhat likely you'll change your mind, or unlikely you'll change your mind?
- Very likely I'll change my mind 3% {7%} [7%] (9%)
- Somewhat likely I'll change my mind 33% {33%} [44%] (43%)
- Unlikely I'll change my mind 63% {50%} [45%] (42%)
Survey of 500 likely New Hampshire GOP primary voters was conducted January 3-4, 2012. Party ID: 51% {58%} Republican; 46% {38%} Independent; 2% {1%} Other. Ideology: 49% {49%} Conservative; 39% {34%} Moderate; Liberal 6% {14%}. Results from the poll conducted December 30-31, 2011 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted December 10-13, 2011 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted November 16-20, 2011 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted September 18-20, 2011 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted June 25-27, 2011 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted April 30 - May 2, 2011 are in parentheses.
Rasmussen 2012 Presidential Poll
- Barack Obama 42% {39%} [44%] (42%) {42%} [42%] (44%) {43%} [42%] (42%) {43%} [43%] (42%) {44%} [40%] (43%) {46%} [42%] {45%} [42%] (44%)
- Mitt Romney 42% {45%} [41%] (43%) {45%} [40%] (38%) {42%} [41%] (44%) {42%} [41%] (44%) {41%} [43%] (39%) {38%} [43%] {40%} [44%] (44%)
Survey of 1,000 likely voters was conducted January 3-4, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted December 27-28, 2011 are in Results from the poll conducted December 20-21, 2011 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted December 14-15, 2011 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted December 8-9, 2011 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted November 30 - December 1, 2011 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted November 21-22, 2011 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted November 9-10, 2011 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted November 1-2, 2011 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted October 24-25, 2011 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted October 16-17, 2011 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted October 8-9, 2011 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 28-29, 2011 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted September 18-19, 2011 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 10-11, 2011 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 25-26, 2011 are in parentheses. Results from the polls conducted August 17-22, 2011 are in curly brackets. Results from the polls conducted between July 14-15, 2011 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted March 6-9, 2011 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted January 3-4, 2011 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted November 24, 2009 are in parentheses. Romney holds a slight 45% to 41% lead over Obama among men. Among women, the president edges Romney 43% to 40%. Obama draws his strongest support from voters under the age of 40, while Romney leads among older voters.
Among voters not affiliated with either political party, Obama is ahead of Romney 39% to 33%. But 28% of these voters either favor some other candidate or are undecided.
Eighty percent (80%) of Tea Party members support Romney, but the president holds a 51% to 33% lead among voters who say they are not part of that movement. Obama captures 57% support from union members but is edged by Romney 44% to 40% among those who are not unionized.
Gallup 2012 GOP Nomination Daily Tracking Poll
- Mitt Romney 27% {26%} [24%] (26%) {27%} [25%] (24%) {23%} [22%] (21%) {23%} [23%] (24%) {24%} [24%] (24%) {23%} [22%] (23%) {23%} [23%] (23%) {25%} [23%] (22%)
- Newt Gingrich 19% {22%} [23%] (24%) {23%} [25%] (25%) {26%} [26%] (27%) {25%} [25%] (26%) {28%} [28%] (29%) {31%} [31%] (33%) {33%} [35%] (37%) {34%} [36%] (37%)
- Ron Paul 13% {13%} [13%] (11%) {11%} [11%] (11%) {12%} [13%] (12%) {12%} [12%] (11%) {10%} [10%] (10%) {9%} [8%] (8%) {9%} [9%] (9%) {10%} [9%] (8%)
- Rick Santorum 11% {8%} [6%] (5%) {4%} [4%] (3%) {3%} [3%] (4%) {4%} [4%] (4%) {4%} [4%] (4%) {4%} [4%] (3%) {2%} [3%] (2%) {2%} [3%] (3%)
- Rick Perry 6% {6%} [7%] (7%) {8%} [8%] (8%) {8%} [8%] (7%) {8%} [8%] (7%) {6%} [6%] (5%) {6%} [7%] (6%) {6%} [6%] (6%) {5%} [6%] (7%)
- Jon Huntsman 2% {2%} [2%] (2%) {2%} [1%] (2%) {1%} [1%] (1%) {2%} [2%] (2%) {2%} [2%] (2%) {2%} [2%] (2%) {2%} [2%] (1%) {1%} [1%] (1%)
Survey of at least 1,000 registered Republicans and Republican-leaning independents was conducted December 28, 2011 - January 4, 2012. The margin of error is ± 3 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted December 27, 2011 - January 3, 2012 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted December 26, 2011 - January 2, 2012 are in Results from the poll conducted December 23-29, 2011 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted December 22-28, 2011 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted December 21-27, 2011 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted December 20-26, 2011 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted December 19-23, 2011 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted December 18-22, 2011 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted December 17-21, 2011 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted December 15-20, 2011 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted December 14-19, 2011 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted December 13-18, 2011 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted December 12-17, 2011 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted December 11-16, 2011 are in Results from the poll conducted December 10-14, 2011 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted December 9-13, 2011 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted December 8-12, 2011 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted December 7-11, 2011 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted December 6-10, 2011 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted December 5-9, 2011 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted December 4-8, 2011 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted December 3-7, 2011 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted December 2-6, 2011 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted December 1-5, 2011 are in parentheses.
