Saturday, November 27, 2010

"Sarah not ready to be the flippin' president of the United States." - American Thinker


"Gosh darn it, Sarah. You're just not ready to be the flippin' president of the United States."  - Scott Ruppert, American Thinker

With those words, the Conservative Political Sphere proves it is far from the monolithic thinking group, many Liberal pundits like to portray. Nowhere is this more evident, than in the ongoing heated debate over whether or not former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin, should seek the presidency in 2012. The American Thinker magazine posted an article, proclaiming with ardent fervor, the need for Palin to run. Ironically, there was another article, also at American Thinker, imploring, “Don’t Do It, Sarah.”

In the first article, Robert Eugene Simmons, Jr issues a very passionate rationale for urging Sarah Palin, not to merely run but to serve. Mr. Simmons Jr first lists the reasons why he believes Gov. Palin would not run. He goes into the details and painful sacrifices she would have to endure, should she be imbued with the inspiration, that she alone can save the Nation. Among the attributes cited are Palin’s love of country, from the heart speaking style, her belief in law before personal opinion and her uniquely singular ability to take on and dismantle the corrupt “Aristocracy” currently misbehaving in the nation’s capital. Whew! Not since George Washington has the nation had such a compelling, capable and yet humbly self-sacrificing leader offered to them.

Evidently, The American Thinker must be a very good place to work, since they allow for freedom of opinion and thought among their editorial staff. In the second posting, author Scott Ruppert lays out a compelling case for the Mama Grizzly not to run in 2012. He captures what many in the GOP and Conservative world have been feeling for some time now - basically Gov. Palin is too over exposed, in other words, Palin Fatigue:

I genuinely liked Palin when she broke on the scene. She proved she had stamina, energy, charisma, and a message that resonated with conservatives. But somewhere along the line, Gov. Palin unknowingly traded being a serious politician for being a celebrity. Much like Barack Obama in his early days in the White House, she has been overexposed. From Fox News pundit, Dancing with the Stars proud mother, and Alaskan travel guide to touring with the Tea Party Express from state to state during the midterms, Ms. Palin has been omnipresent. That new face and air of common sense that I felt two years ago has gotten stale. The message still resonates, but I want it to come from somebody with a voice of depth not cultivated from briefing sheets and talking points.”

In addition, Mr. Ruppert also points to a casual quality in Palin, resulting in a lack of Presidential demeanor, as one of her stumbling blocks to Oval Office success:

Maybe it's something as superficial as Sarah's whiny voice, the irritating momma grizzly shtick, or that "aw golly shucks" demeanor that makes her an improbable choice to be taken seriously behind the presidential seal while answering tough questions across the spectrum of global importance. Maybe it's the idea that I don't feel disrespectful at all calling her Sarah. This is tough to admit as someone who saw her as a breath of fresh air when John McCain initially brought her to the national spotlight in 2008.”

Now to be fair, both authors hold very positive feelings towards Gov. Palin, as I am sure the entire American Thinker staff does as well. But the valid questions and concerns that are currently held regarding a 2012 Sarah Palin presidential candidacy are based on more on political reality and strategy, rather than personal animus.

One of the many other concerns regarding Palin is her penchant for getting into public spats with the Media or the LSM – “lame stream media” as she likes to refer to them. While she has shown a deft use of her sharp sense of humor in the dispatching her detractors, such encounters do nothing to improve her image or burnish her credentials with Independent voters. Her reactions are one of the reasons she is viewed as the one of the most polarizing political figure in the nation. True, these encounters are very often driven by the LSM, they do raise eyebrows and questions even in conservative circles and question if they are of any real political value. They also highlight the tough time Palin would have as the GOP standard bearer in 2012 – she would be a distraction and on the defensive in all stories, allowing President Obama to articulate his “positive” case for re-election. Palin would have to “perfect” in order to have a shot a winning, as another American Thinker author points out.

Another sticking point with critics of the Mama Grizzly include her habitual use of GOP icon, Ronald Reagan, as her role model, inspiration and some would say, political shield. Her chronic use of Reagan as a political prop has lead Reagan admirers to be critical of Palin for not knowing facts about the former actor in defending her reality TV foray and citing his going to Eureka College in California, when it was actually in Illinois. By citing and incorporating Reagan, Palin can assure supporters of where she stands and how she’d govern, without getting into the troublesome tangle of spelling out actual policy positions. While Palin, to her credit, has taken on the issues of Inflation and Quantitative Easing 2, even that foray had a tepid response with some conservatives.

For the time being however, the Palin–Media Waltz will continue unabated for the next several weeks, while the Governor’s highly promoted book tour continues and her TLC reality show (yes, it is a reality show, one some conservatives didn’t care for) continues it’s run. While her book is anticipated to be a major success, complete with adoring fans braving the elements to obtain a signed copy, the TV show is another story. Week 2 of “Sarah Palin’s Alaska” saw its ratings gutted like a halibut on Episode 2, dropping 40% from the premiere week.

Perhaps, Americans are tiring of the 24/7 Palin inspired reality-dance-political-docu-drama being played out in their homes, every time the turn on the news, check the Internet or crack open a newspaper. If so, it may represent the biggest hurdle Palin will have to face in a quest for the White House, avoiding real or percieved gaffes and controversies, while getting people to take her seriously.

Then again, since Sarah Palin is no dummy, maybe she is content to be the most widely covered celebrity on the national scene.

Monday, November 22, 2010

Poll Watch: Quinnipiac 2012 Presidential Survey

Quinnipiac 2012 Presidential Survey
  • Mitt Romney 45%
  • Barack Obama 44%
  • Barack Obama 46%
  • Mike Huckabee 44%
  • Barack Obama 48%
  • Sarah Palin 40%
  • Barack Obama 45%
  • Mitch Daniels 36%
Among Independents
  • Mitt Romney 46%
  • Barack Obama 35%
  • Mike Huckabee 47%
  • Barack Obama 40%
  • Barack Obama 37%
  • Mitch Daniels 34%
  • Barack Obama 44%
  • Sarah Palin 37%
Among Moderates
  • Barack Obama 56%
  • Mitt Romney 32%
  • Barack Obama 59%
  • Mike Huckabee 29%
  • Barack Obama 60%
  • Mitch Daniels 20%
  • Barack Obama 63%
  • Sarah Palin 22% 
Among Men
  • Mitt Romney 51%
  • Barack Obama 40%
  • Mike Huckabee 49%
  • Barack Obama 42%
  • Barack Obama 44%
  • Sarah Palin 44%
  • Barack Obama 42%
  • Mitch Daniels 39%
Among Women
  • Barack Obama 48%
  • Mitt Romney 39%
  • Barack Obama 49%
  • Mike Huckabee 40%
  • Barack Obama 52%
  • Sarah Palin 36%
  • Barack Obama 49%
  • Mitch Daniels 32%
College Degree
  • Barack Obama 51%
  • Mitt Romney 42%
  • Barack Obama 52%
  • Mike Huckabee 40%
  • Barack Obama 51%
  • Mitch Daniels 32%
  • Barack Obama 56%
  • Sarah Palin 33% 
No College Degree
  • Mitt Romney 46%
  • Barack Obama 42%
  • Mike Huckabee 46%
  • Barack Obama 43%
  • Barack Obama 46%
  • Sarah Palin 42%
  • Barack Obama 43%
  • Mitch Daniels 37%
Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}
  • Mike Huckabee 41% / 25% {+16%}
  • Mitt Romney 38% / 26% {+12%}
  • Tim Pawlenty 13% / 10% {+3%}
  • Mitch Daniels 10% / 8% {+2%}
  • John Thune 7% / 5% {+2%}
  • Barack Obama 48% / 48% {0%}
  • Haley Barbour 12% / 12% {0%}
  • Tea Party movement 34% / 38% {-4%}
  • Republican Party 40% / 45% {-5%}
  • Democratic Party 38% / 50% {-12%}
  • Newt Gingrich 30% / 43% {-13%}
  • Sarah Palin 36% / 51% {-15%}
Among Republicans
  • Republican Party 85% / 8% {+77%}
  • Mike Huckabee 69% / 7% {+62%}
  • Sarah Palin 74% / 17% {+57%}
  • Mitt Romney 64% / 9% {+55%}
  • Tea Party movement 65% / 11% {+54%}
  • Newt Gingrich 60% / 18% {+42%}
  • Tim Pawlenty 25% / 3% {+22%}
  • Haley Barbour 22% / 4% {+18%}
  • Mitch Daniels 18% / 2% {+16%}
  • John Thune 12% / 2% {+10%}
  • Democratic Party 5% / 86% {-81%}
  • Barack Obama 6% / 91% {-85%}
Among Independents
  • Mike Huckabee 45% / 21% {+24%}
  • Mitt Romney 43% / 22% {+21%}
  • Tim Pawlenty 14% / 9% {+5%}
  • John Thune 8% / 3% {+5%}
  • Mitch Daniels 10% / 7% {+3%}
  • Haley Barbour 13% / 13% {0%}
  • Tea Party movement 35% / 37% {-2%}
  • Barack Obama 43% / 52% {-9%}
  • Republican Party 33% / 48% {-15%}
  • Newt Gingrich 26% / 45% {-19%}
  • Sarah Palin 33% / 54% {-21%}
  • Democratic Party 28% / 56% {-28%}
Looking ahead to the 2012 election for President, do you feel that Barack Obama deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?
  • Deserves reelection 43%
  • Does not 49%
Do you consider yourself part of the Tea party movement or not?
  • Yes 13%
  • No 83%
Among Republicans
  • Yes 25%
  • No 71%
Among Independents
  • Yes 14%
  • No 84%
Among Democrats
  • Yes 2%
  • No 94%
Republican Nomination
(Among Republicans and Republican Leaners)
  • Sarah Palin 19%
  • Mitt Romney 18%
  • Mike Huckabee 17%
  • Newt Gingrich 15%
  • Tim Pawlenty 6%
  • Mitch Daniels 2%
  • Haley Barbour 2%
  • John Thune 2%
  • Don't know 17%
Among Men
  • Mitt Romney 20%
  • Newt Gingrich 18%
  • Mike Huckabee 17%
  • Sarah Palin 14%
  • Tim Pawlenty 6%
  • Mitch Daniels 3%
  • Haley Barbour 3%
  • John Thune 2%
  • Don't know 15%
Among Women
  • Sarah Palin 25%
  • Mike Huckabee 18%
  • Mitt Romney 15%
  • Newt Gingrich 11%
  • Tim Pawlenty 5%
  • Mitch Daniels 2%
  • Haley Barbour 1%
  • John Thune 1%
  • Don't know 19%
College Degree
  • Mitt Romney 26%
  • Mike Huckabee 18%
  • Newt Gingrich 15%
  • Sarah Palin 10%
  • Tim Pawlenty 6%
  • Haley Barbour 4%
  • Mitch Daniels 3%
  • John Thune 3%
  • Don't know 13%
No College Degree
  • Sarah Palin 22%
  • Mike Huckabee 17%
  • Newt Gingrich 15%
  • Mitt Romney 14%
  • Tim Pawlenty 6%
  • Mitch Daniels 2%
  • Haley Barbour 1%
  • John Thune 1%
  • Don't know 19%
(Among Democrats and Democrat Leaners)
Would you like to see a candidate other than Barack Obama run for the Democratic nomination for President in 2012 or not?
  • Yes 27%
  • No 64%
Among Men
  • Yes 30%
  • No 62%
Among Women
  • Yes 25%
  • No 65%
College Degree
  • Yes 16%
  • No 76%
No College Degree
  • Yes 32%
  • No 58%
Among Whites
  • Yes 32%
  • No 59%
Among Blacks
  • Yes 13%
  • No 83%
Survey of 2,424 registered voters was conducted November 8-15, 2010.  The margin of error is +/- 2 percentage points.

Friday, November 19, 2010

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Virginia 2012 GOP Primary

PPP (D) Virginia 2012 GOP Primary
  • Mike Huckabee 21%
  • Newt Gingrich 20%
  • Sarah Palin 17%
  • Mitt Romney 15% 
  • Ron Paul 7%
  • Tim Pawlenty 5%
  • Mitch Daniels 3%
  • John Thune 2%
  • Someone else/Undecided 11%
Among Conservatives
  • Newt Gingrich 22%
  • Mike Huckabee 21%
  • Sarah Palin 17%
  • Mitt Romney 13% 
  • Ron Paul 6%
  • Tim Pawlenty 6%
  • Mitch Daniels 3%
  • John Thune 2%
  • Someone else/Undecided 11%
Among Moderates
  • Mike Huckabee 20%
  • Sarah Palin 20%
  • Mitt Romney 18% 
  • Newt Gingrich 14%
  • Ron Paul 9%
  • Tim Pawlenty 3%
  • Mitch Daniels 3%
  • John Thune 2%
  • Someone else/Undecided 12%
Among Men
  • Newt Gingrich 20%
  • Sarah Palin 19%
  • Mike Huckabee 17%
  • Mitt Romney 14% 
  • Ron Paul 10%
  • Tim Pawlenty 6%
  • John Thune 3%
  • Mitch Daniels 2%
  • Someone else/Undecided 8%
Among Women
  • Mike Huckabee 24%
  • Newt Gingrich 20%
  • Mitt Romney 16% 
  • Sarah Palin 15%
  • Tim Pawlenty 4%
  • Mitch Daniels 3%
  • Ron Paul 3%
  • John Thune 0%
  • Someone else/Undecided 14%
Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}
  • Mike Huckabee 72% / 18% {+54%}
  • Sarah Palin 70% / 24% {+46%}
  • Newt Gingrich 64% / 20% {+44%}
  • Mitt Romney 63% / 22% {+41%}
Among Conservatives
  • Sarah Palin 79% / 15% {+64%}
  • Mike Huckabee 76% / 14% {+62%}
  • Newt Gingrich 66% / 17% {+49%}
  • Mitt Romney 63% / 21% {+42%}
Among Moderates
  • Mike Huckabee 62% / 26% {+36%}
  • Mitt Romney 60% / 27% {+33%}
  • Newt Gingrich 56% / 27% {+29%}
  • Sarah Palin 45% / 49% {-4%}
Among Men
  • Mike Huckabee 73% / 20% {+53%}
  • Sarah Palin 72% / 21% {+51%}
  • Newt Gingrich 69% / 20% {+49%}
  • Mitt Romney 62% / 25% {+37%}
Among Women
  • Mike Huckabee 71% / 15% {+56%}
  • Mitt Romney 64% / 19% {+45%}
  • Sarah Palin 68% / 28% {+40%}
  • Newt Gingrich 59% / 20% {+39%}
Survey of 400 Republican primary voters was conducted November 10-13, 2010.  The margin of error is +/- 4.9 percentage points.  Political ideology: 72% Conservative; 26% Moderate; 2% Liberal.

Monday, November 15, 2010

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Kentucky Republican 2012 Survey

PPP (D) Kentucky Republican 2012 Survey
  • Mike Huckabee 26%
  • Sarah Palin 19%
  • Newt Gingrich 17%
  • Mitt Romney 13%
  • Mitch Daniels 4%
  • Mike Pence 2%
  • Tim Pawlenty 1%
  • John Thune 0%
  • Someone else/Undecided 16%
Survey of 320 Republican primary voters was conducted October 28-30, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 5.5 percentage points.

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Washington Republican 2012 Survey

PPP (D) Washington Republican 2012 Survey
  • Sarah Palin 19%
  • Mitt Romney 18%
  • Mike Huckabee 17%
  • Newt Gingrich 15%
  • Tim Pawlenty 4%
  • Mike Pence 2%
  • Mitch Daniels 1%
  • John Thune 0%
  • Someone else/Undecided 24%
Among Conservatives
  • Sarah Palin 20%
  • Mike Huckabee 18%
  • Newt Gingrich 16%
  • Mitt Romney 16%
  • Tim Pawlenty 5% 
  • Mike Pence 2%
  • Mitch Daniels 1%
  • John Thune 1%
  • Someone else/Undecided 22%
Among Moderates
  • Mitt Romney 25% 
  • Mike Huckabee 14%
  • Newt Gingrich 12%
  • Sarah Palin 12%
  • Tim Pawlenty 2%
  • Mitch Daniels 2%
  • Mike Pence 0%
  • John Thune 0%
  • Someone else/Undecided 32%
Among Men
  • Newt Gingrich 19%
  • Mitt Romney 19%
  • Sarah Palin 18%
  • Mike Huckabee 15%
  • Tim Pawlenty 5% 
  • Mitch Daniels 2%
  • Mike Pence 1%
  • John Thune 0%
  • Someone else/Undecided 21%
Among Women
  • Sarah Palin 19%
  • Mike Huckabee 18%
  • Mitt Romney 17%
  • Newt Gingrich 12%
  • Tim Pawlenty 4%
  • Mike Pence 2%
  • Mitch Daniels 1%
  • John Thune 1%
  • Someone else/Undecided 27%
Survey of 712 Republican primary voters was conducted October 29-31, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 3.7 percentage points.

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Nevada 2012 GOP Primary

PPP (D) Nevada 2012 GOP Primary
  • Mitt Romney 34% [34%]
  • Newt Gingrich 21% [28%]
  • Sarah Palin 16% [16%]
  • Mike Huckabee 11% [11%]
  • Tim Pawlenty 2%
  • Mike Pence 1%
  • Mitch Daniels 1%
  • John Thune 0%
  • Someone else/Undecided 13%
Survey of 272 Republican primary voters was conducted October 30-31, 2010.  The margin of error is +/- 5.9 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted July 16-18, 2010 are in square brackets.

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Ohio Republican 2012 Survey

PPP (D) Ohio Republican 2012 Survey
  • Sarah Palin 20%
  • Newt Gingrich 19%
  • Mike Huckabee 17%
  • Mitt Romney 14%
  • Tim Pawlenty 6%
  • Mitch Daniels 3%
  • Mike Pence 2%
  • John Thune 0%
  • Someone else/Undecided 18%
Among Conservatives
  • Newt Gingrich 21%
  • Sarah Palin 21%
  • Mike Huckabee 19%
  • Mitt Romney 13%
  • Tim Pawlenty 6% 
  • Mitch Daniels 2%
  • Mike Pence 2%
  • John Thune 0%
  • Someone else/Undecided 15%
Among Moderates
  • Mitt Romney 19% 
  • Sarah Palin 15%
  • Mike Huckabee 14%
  • Newt Gingrich 14%
  • Tim Pawlenty 8%
  • Mitch Daniels 5%
  • Mike Pence 0%
  • John Thune 0%
  • Someone else/Undecided 26%
Among Men
  • Newt Gingrich 22%
  • Sarah Palin 19%
  • Mike Huckabee 16%
  • Mitt Romney 16%
  • Tim Pawlenty 6% 
  • Mitch Daniels 5%
  • Mike Pence 2%
  • John Thune 1%
  • Someone else/Undecided 14%
Among Women
  • Sarah Palin 21%
  • Mike Huckabee 19%
  • Newt Gingrich 16%
  • Mitt Romney 13%
  • Tim Pawlenty 7%
  • Mike Pence 2%
  • Mitch Daniels 1%
  • John Thune 0%
  • Someone else/Undecided 21%
Survey of 500 Republican primary voters was conducted October 28-30, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 4.4 percentage points.

Poll Watch: PPP (D) North Carolina 2012 GOP Primary

PPP (D) North Carolina 2012 GOP Primary
  • Newt Gingrich 23%
  • Mike Huckabee 19% {30%} [30%] (33%)
  • Sarah Palin 19% {30%} [27%] (27%)
  • Mitt Romney 14% {27%} [25%] (25%)
  • Tim Pawlenty 4%
  • Mitch Daniels 2%
  • Mike Pence 2%
  • John Thune 0%
  • Someone else/Undecided 16%
Survey of 307 Republican primary voters was conducted October 30-31, 2010.  The margin of error is +/- 5.6 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted April 8-11, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 12-15, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 12-15, 2010 are in parentheses. 

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Alaska Republican 2012 Survey

PPP (D) Alaska Republican 2012 Survey
  • Mike Huckabee 17% [17%]
  • Newt Gingrich 16% [16%]
  • Mitt Romney 16% [20%]
  • Sarah Palin 15% [17%]
  • Tim Pawlenty 5%
  • Mitch Daniels 2%
  • Mike Pence 2%
  • John Thune 2%
  • Someone else/Undecided 25%
Among Conservatives
  • Newt Gingrich 19% [21%]
  • Mike Huckabee 19% [17%]
  • Sarah Palin 17% [20%]
  • Mitt Romney 15% [17%]
  • Tim Pawlenty 5% 
  • Mitch Daniels 2%
  • Mike Pence 2%
  • John Thune 2%
  • Someone else/Undecided 20%
Among Moderates
  • Mitt Romney 19% [25%]
  • Mike Huckabee 13% [18%]
  • Newt Gingrich 10% [7%]
  • Sarah Palin 10% [11%]
  • Tim Pawlenty 6%
  • Mitch Daniels 2%
  • Mike Pence 2%
  • John Thune 2%
  • Someone else/Undecided 37%
Among Men
  • Mitt Romney 18% [19%]
  • Sarah Palin 17% [18%]
  • Newt Gingrich 15% [18%]
  • Mike Huckabee 15% [16%]
  • Tim Pawlenty 7% 
  • Mitch Daniels 3%
  • Mike Pence 1%
  • John Thune 1%
  • Someone else/Undecided 23%
Among Women
  • Mike Huckabee 20% [19%]
  • Newt Gingrich 16% [14%]
  • Sarah Palin 14% [16%]
  • Mitt Romney 13% [21%]
  • Tim Pawlenty 4%
  • Mike Pence 3%
  • John Thune 2%
  • Mitch Daniels 1%
  • Someone else/Undecided 28%
Survey of 743 Republican primary voters was conducted October 30-31, 2010. The margin of error is +/-3.6 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted August 27-28, 2010 are in square brackets.

Friday, November 12, 2010

Gallup: At 52%, Palin's Unfavorable Score Hits a New High

Gallup: At 52%, Palin's Unfavorable Score Hits a New High



Now that the 2010 midterms are over, the big question swirling around Palin is whether she will run for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination. Given her high name recognition and broad popularity among Republicans, 80% of whom now view her favorably, she is clearly in a strong position to seek it. However, her negative image among the other party groups -- 81% of Democrats and 53% of independents view her unfavorably, while fewer than 4 in 10 view her favorably -- casts some doubt on her viability in the general election.


Nearly two-thirds of Republicans, 65%, call themselves supporters of the Tea Party movement in the latest poll, while 57% of Democrats are opponents of it. Independents are about evenly divided: 30% call themselves supporters and 25% say they are opponents.

Bottom Line

At the close of an eventful midterm election season that focused heavily on the Tea Party message and candidates, Americans remain broadly divided in their reactions to the Tea Party movement, while the majority now hold a negative image of Palin, one of the movement's most visible proponents. In the process, Palin maintained her already-positive image with Republicans while losing ground with independents and remaining widely unpopular with Democrats. The national Tea Party movement itself is also relatively polarizing, with about equal percentages of Americans calling themselves supporters and opponents.
Survey Methods

Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Nov. 4-7, 2010, with a random sample of 1,021 adults, aged 18 and older, living in the continental U.S., selected using random-digit-dial sampling. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points.

Jon Stewart Rips Media's 'Red State vs. Blue State' Rhetoric; Takes Partisan Hacks to Task

Thursday, November 11, 2010

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Florida 2012 GOP Primary

PPP (D) Florida 2012 GOP Primary
  • Mitt Romney 28% [31%] (52%)
  • Sarah Palin 22% [23%] (18%)
  • Newt Gingrich 15% [23%]
  • Mike Huckabee 15% [15%] (21%)
  • Tim Pawlenty 4%
  • Mike Pence 2%
  • Mitch Daniels 1%
  • John Thune 1%
  • Someone else/Undecided 12% 
Survey of 280 Republican primary voters was conducted October 30-31, 2010.  The margin of error is +/- 5.9 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted July 16-18, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 5-8, 2010 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: PPP (D) 2012 Wisconsin GOP Primary

PPP (D) 2012 Wisconsin GOP Primary
  • Sarah Palin 18%
  • Mike Huckabee 15%
  • Newt Gingrich 14%
  • Mitt Romney 12%
  • Tim Pawlenty 8%
  • Mike Pence 2%
  • Mitch Daniels 2%
  • John Thune 1%
  • Someone else/Undecided 28%
Among Conservatives
  • Sarah Palin 20%
  • Newt Gingrich 16%
  • Mike Huckabee 14%
  • Mitt Romney 12%
  • Tim Pawlenty 8%
  • Mike Pence 2%
  • Mitch Daniels 2%
  • John Thune 1%
  • Someone else/Undecided 26%
Among Moderates
  • Mike Huckabee 16%
  • Mitt Romney 15%
  • Sarah Palin 11%
  • Newt Gingrich 10%
  • Tim Pawlenty 9%
  • Mitch Daniels 3% 
  • Mike Pence 1% 
  • John Thune 0%
  • Someone else/Undecided 35% 
Among Men
  • Sarah Palin 21%
  • Newt Gingrich 17%
  • Mike Huckabee 16%
  • Tim Pawlenty 12%
  • Mitt Romney 11%
  • Mitch Daniels 2% 
  • Mike Pence 1%
  • John Thune 0%
  • Someone else/Undecided 19%
Among Women
  • Sarah Palin 14%
  • Mike Huckabee 13%
  • Mitt Romney 13%
  • Newt Gingrich 10%
  • Tim Pawlenty 5%
  • Mitch Daniels 3%
  • Mike Pence 2%
  • John Thune 1% 
  • Someone else/Undecided 39%
Survey of 579 Republican primary voters was conducted October 26-28, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 4.1 percentage points.

Poll Watch: PPP (D) 2012 Minnesota GOP Primary

PPP (D) 2012 Minnesota GOP Primary
  • Tim Pawlenty 19%
  • Sarah Palin 18%
  • Mike Huckabee 14%
  • Newt Gingrich 11%
  • Mitt Romney 11%
  • Mike Pence 3%
  • Mitch Daniels 3%
  • John Thune 2%
  • Someone else/Undecided 18%
Among Conservatives
  • Sarah Palin 20%
  • Tim Pawlenty 18%
  • Mike Huckabee 15%
  • Newt Gingrich 12%
  • Mitt Romney 11%
  • Mike Pence 4%
  • John Thune 3%
  • Mitch Daniels 2%
  • Someone else/Undecided 16%
Among Moderates
  • Tim Pawlenty 27%
  • Mitt Romney 13%
  • Mike Huckabee 13%
  • Sarah Palin 10%
  • Newt Gingrich 6%
  • Mitch Daniels 4% 
  • John Thune 1%
  • Mike Pence 1% 
  • Someone else/Undecided 24% 
Among Men
  • Tim Pawlenty 20%
  • Sarah Palin 17%
  • Mike Huckabee 15%
  • Newt Gingrich 11%
  • Mitt Romney 11%
  • John Thune 4%
  • Mike Pence 3%
  • Mitch Daniels 3% 
  • Someone else/Undecided 14%
Among Women
  • Sarah Palin 19%
  • Tim Pawlenty 18%
  • Mike Huckabee 13%
  • Mitt Romney 12%
  • Newt Gingrich 10%
  • Mike Pence 3%
  • Mitch Daniels 2%
  • John Thune 1% 
  • Someone else/Undecided 22%
Survey of 499 Republican primary voters was conducted October 27-29, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 4.4 percentage points.

Poll Watch: PPP (D) 2012 Maine GOP Primary

PPP (D) 2012 Maine GOP Primary
  • Sarah Palin 23%
  • Mitt Romney 18%
  • Mike Huckabee 16%
  • Newt Gingrich 14%
  • Tim Pawlenty 3%
  • Mike Pence 2%
  • Mitch Daniels 1%
  • John Thune 0%
  • Someone else/Undecided 23%
Among Conservatives
  • Sarah Palin 27%
  • Newt Gingrich 17%
  • Mitt Romney 16%
  • Mike Huckabee 16%
  • Tim Pawlenty 4%
  • Mike Pence 2%
  • John Thune 1%
  • Mitch Daniels 1%
  • Someone else/Undecided 16%
Among Moderates
  • Mitt Romney 21%
  • Sarah Palin 15%
  • Mike Huckabee 15%
  • Newt Gingrich 7%
  • Mitch Daniels 2%
  • Tim Pawlenty 2%
  • John Thune 0%
  • Mike Pence 2% 
  • Someone else/Undecided 36% 
Among Men
  • Sarah Palin 23%
  • Newt Gingrich 19%
  • Mitt Romney 17%
  • Mike Huckabee 13%
  • Tim Pawlenty 4%
  • Mike Pence 3%
  • Mitch Daniels 2% 
  • John Thune 0%
  • Someone else/Undecided 20%
Among Women
  • Sarah Palin 23%
  • Mitt Romney 19%
  • Mike Huckabee 18%
  • Newt Gingrich 8%
  • Tim Pawlenty 3%
  • Mike Pence 1%
  • Mitch Daniels 1%
  • John Thune 1% 
  • Someone else/Undecided 27%
Survey of 614 Republican primary voters was conducted October 26-28, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Texas 2012 GOP Primary

PPP (D) Texas 2012 GOP Primary
  • Sarah Palin 22% {19%} [17%] (23%)
  • Mike Huckabee 20% {19%} [22%] (29%)
  • Newt Gingrich 15% {23%} [25%]
  • Mitt Romney 15% {17%} [18%] (32%)
  • Mike Pence 3%
  • Tim Pawlenty 3%
  • Mitch Daniels 2%
  • John Thune 1%
  • Someone else/Undecided 20% 
Survey of 254 Republican primary voters was conducted October 26-28, 2010.  The margin of error is +/- 6.2 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted September 2-6, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted June 19-20, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 19-21, 2010 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: PPP (D) 2012 West Virginia GOP Primary

PPP (D) 2012 West Virginia GOP Primary
  • Sarah Palin 25% [24%]
  • Mike Huckabee 22% [27%]
  • Newt Gingrich 15% [16%]
  • Mitt Romney 15% [13%]
  • Mike Pence 2%
  • Tim Pawlenty 2%
  • Mitch Daniels 1%
  • John Thune 1%
  • Someone else/Undecided 17%
Among Conservatives
  • Mike Huckabee 26% [27%]
  • Sarah Palin 23% [24%]
  • Newt Gingrich 19% [19%]
  • Mitt Romney 13% [12%]
  • Mike Pence 3%
  • Tim Pawlenty 3%
  • John Thune 1%
  • Mitch Daniels 0%
  • Someone else/Undecided 13%
Among Moderates
  • Sarah Palin 30% [21%]
  • Mitt Romney 25% [18%]
  • Mike Huckabee 12% [29%]
  • Newt Gingrich 8% [10%]
  • Mitch Daniels 1%
  • Tim Pawlenty 1%
  • John Thune 0%
  • Mike Pence 0% 
  • Someone else/Undecided 24% 
Among Men
  • Sarah Palin 28% [22%]
  • Newt Gingrich 20% [20%]
  • Mike Huckabee 17% [25%]
  • Mitt Romney 15% [17%]
  • Mike Pence 3%
  • Tim Pawlenty 2%
  • John Thune 1%
  • Mitch Daniels 0% 
  • Someone else/Undecided 13%
Among Women
  • Mike Huckabee 27% [29%]
  • Sarah Palin 23% [25%]
  • Mitt Romney 16% [10%]
  • Newt Gingrich 11% [13%]
  • Tim Pawlenty 2%
  • Mike Pence 1%
  • Mitch Daniels 1%
  • John Thune 0% 
  • Someone else/Undecided 20%
Survey of 521 Republican primary voters was conducted October 30-31, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 4.3 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted September 18-19, 2010 are in square brackets.

Poll Watch: CBS News Political Survey

CBS News Political Survey

Should Republicans in Congress Stick To Positions Or Compromise?
  • Compromise 72%
  • Stick to positions 21%
Among Democrats
  • Compromise 86%
  • Stick to positions 9%
Among Independents
  • Compromise 69%
  • Stick to positions 25%
Among Republicans
  • Compromise 60%
  • Stick to positions 32%
Among Tea Partiers
  • Compromise 55%
  • Stick to positions 38%
Should President Obama Stick To Positions Or Compromise?
  • Compromise 78%
  • Stick to positions 16%
Among Democrats
  • Compromise 70%
  • Stick to positions 23%
Among Independents
  • Compromise 78%
  • Stick to positions 17%
Among Republicans
  • Compromise 88%
  • Stick to positions 5%
President Obama’s Overall Job Rating
  • Approve 45%
  • Disapprove 45%
President Obama’s Handling of Foreign Policy
  • Approve 46%
  • Disapprove 37%
Views of the Parties

Democratic Party
  • Favorable 46%
  • Unfavorable 46%
Republican Party
  • Favorable 42%
  • Unfavorable 48%
Survey of 1,137 adults was conducted November 7-10, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points.

Wednesday, November 10, 2010

Poll Watch: AP/GfK Political Survey (2012 Edition)

AP/GfK Political Survey

Overall, please tell me whether you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president.
  • Approve 47%
  • Disapprove 51%
Please tell me if you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling each of the following issues. How about…
The economy
  • Approve 41%
  • Disapprove 58%
Unemployment
  • Approve 43%
  • Disapprove 56%
Taxes
  • Approve 46%
  • Disapprove 53%
Federal budget deficit
  • Approve 36%
  • Disapprove 62%
Health care
  • Approve 48%
  • Disapprove 51%
Education
  • Approve 59%
  • Disapprove 38%
Immigration
  • Approve 43%
  • Disapprove 55%
Terrorism
  • Approve 57%
  • Disapprove 41%
The situation in Afghanistan
  • Approve 48%
  • Disapprove 50%
The situation in Iraq
  • Approve 54%
  • Disapprove 45%
Relationships with other countries
  • Approve 58%
  • Disapprove 41%
The environment
  • Approve 58%
  • Disapprove 39%
Energy
  • Approve 56%
  • Disapprove 40%
Gas prices
  • Approve 43%
  • Disapprove 52%
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of...

Barack Obama
  • Very favorable 33%
  • Somewhat favorable 22%
  • Somewhat unfavorable 14%
  • Very unfavorable 30%
Sarah Palin
  • Very favorable 18%
  • Somewhat favorable 28%
  • Somewhat unfavorable 15%
  • Very unfavorable 34%
Mitt Romney
  • Very favorable 12%
  • Somewhat favorable 34%
  • Somewhat unfavorable 20%
  • Very unfavorable 11%
Newt Gingrich
  • Very favorable 12%
  • Somewhat favorable 29%
  • Somewhat unfavorable 21%
  • Very unfavorable 20%
Tim Pawlenty
  • Very favorable 5%
  • Somewhat favorable 20%
  • Somewhat unfavorable 14%
  • Very unfavorable 5%
Haley Barbour
  • Very favorable 6%
  • Somewhat favorable 16%
  • Somewhat unfavorable 14%
  • Very unfavorable 6%
Mike Huckabee
  • Very favorable 16%
  • Somewhat favorable 34%
  • Somewhat unfavorable 16%
  • Very unfavorable 11%
John Thune
  • Very favorable 4%
  • Somewhat favorable 16%
  • Somewhat unfavorable 11%
  • Very unfavorable 5%
Mitch Daniels
  • Very favorable 3%
  • Somewhat favorable 18%
  • Somewhat unfavorable 13%
  • Very unfavorable 4%
Michelle Obama
  • Very favorable 35%
  • Somewhat favorable 33%
  • Somewhat unfavorable 15%
  • Very unfavorable 12%
Hillary Clinton
  • Very favorable 30%
  • Somewhat favorable 35%
  • Somewhat unfavorable 17%
  • Very unfavorable 16%
Bill Clinton
  • Very favorable 36%
  • Somewhat favorable 30%
  • Somewhat unfavorable 16%
  • Very unfavorable 17%
Joe Biden
  • Very favorable 18%
  • Somewhat favorable 29%
  • Somewhat unfavorable 21%
  • Very unfavorable 21%
George W. Bush
  • Very favorable 18%
  • Somewhat favorable 28%
  • Somewhat unfavorable 19%
  • Very unfavorable 34%
Mitch McConnell
  • Very favorable 7%
  • Somewhat favorable 27%
  • Somewhat unfavorable 15%
  • Very unfavorable 10%
John Boehner
  • Very favorable 9%
  • Somewhat favorable 25%
  • Somewhat unfavorable 15%
  • Very unfavorable 11%
The Democratic Party
  • Very favorable 20%
  • Somewhat favorable 29%
  • Somewhat unfavorable 23%
  • Very unfavorable 25%
The Republican Party
  • Very favorable 14%
  • Somewhat favorable 38%
  • Somewhat unfavorable 21%
  • Very unfavorable 23%
In general, do you support or oppose the health care reforms that were passed by Congress in March?
  • Strongly support 17%
  • Somewhat support 20%
  • Somewhat oppose 13%
  • Strongly oppose 33%
The tax cuts that were passed in 2001 will expire this year if they are not continued. Which of the following best describes what you think Congress should do about the tax cuts?
  • Allow the tax cuts to expire for everyone 12%
  • Allow the tax cuts for people earning more than $250,000 to expire, but continue them for other people 32%
  • Continue the tax cuts for everyone 53%
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the Tea Party movement?
  • Very favorable 14%
  • Somewhat favorable 18%
  • Somewhat unfavorable 14%
  • Very unfavorable 22%
From what you know about the Tea Party movement, would you say you generally agree or disagree on the Tea Party movement’s positions on political issues?
  • Strongly agree 16%
  • Somewhat agree 19%
  • Somewhat disagree 11%
  • Strongly disagree 19%
Do you consider yourself a supporter of the Tea Party movement, or are you not a supporter of the Tea Party movement?
  • Supporter 30%
  • Not a supporter 66%
(Among Democrats/Democrat-leaning Independents) Thinking ahead to 2012, would you like to see Barack Obama face a serious challenge in the 2012 presidential primaries from another Democratic candidate, or not?
  • Yes 38%
  • No 58%
Survey of 1,000 adults was conducted November 3-8, 2010.  The margin of error is +/- 4.1 percentage points.  Party ID breakdown: 39% Democrat; 38% Republican.  Political ideology: 33% Moderate; 24% Somewhat conservative; 22% Strongly conservative; 11% Somewhat liberal; 8% Strongly liberal.

Inside the numbers:
In terms of winning the 2012 nomination, the question is how Republican-leaning Americans view the contenders. Palin comes out on top. Among adults who identify themselves as Republicans or GOP-leaning independents, 79 percent view her favorably, and 17 percent unfavorably.
These findings worry many Republican officials. The poll suggests Palin might be able to win the nomination. But among independents — they could be the deciding factor in the general election — just 43 percent hold a favorable view of Palin, compared with 61 percent with a positive view of Obama.

Elsewhere among the poll's Republican respondents, 74 percent viewed Huckabee favorably, 10 percent unfavorably. Sixty-four percent viewed Romney favorably, 18 percent unfavorably. For former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, it was 68 percent favorable, 21 percent unfavorable.

Other possible candidates are largely unknown, even among self-identified Republican or GOP-leaning adults. The breakdown:

—Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, 28 percent favorable, 13 percent unfavorable, 59 percent no opinion.

—Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour, 27 percent favorable, 14 percent favorable, 58 percent no opinion.

—Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels, 24 percent favorable, 13 percent unfavorable, 63 percent no opinion.

—South Dakota Sen. John Thune, 20 percent favorable, 10 percent unfavorable and 70 percent no opinion.

Tuesday, November 09, 2010

Poll Watch: PPP (D) 2012 Illinois GOP Primary

PPP (D) 2012 Illinois GOP Primary
  • Mike Huckabee 18% {21%} [25%] (28%)
  • Newt Gingrich 17% {23%} [23%]
  • Sarah Palin 14% {18%} [18%] (24%)
  • Mitt Romney 12% {16%} [25%] (34%)
  • Tim Pawlenty 7%
  • Mitch Daniels 6%
  • John Thune 2%
  • Mike Pence 1%
  • Someone else/Undecided 23% 
Survey of 255 Republican primary voters was conducted October 30-31, 2010.  The margin of error is +/- 6.1 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted August 14-16, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted June 12-13, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 1-5, 2010 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Connecticut 2012 GOP Nomination

PPP (D) Connecticut 2012 GOP Nomination
  • Mitt Romney 28%
  • Mike Huckabee 15%
  • Newt Gingrich 14%
  • Sarah Palin 11%
  • Mike Pence 5%
  • Tim Pawlenty 5%
  • Mitch Daniels 4%
  • John Thune 2%
  • Someone else/Undecided 18%
Survey of 180 Republican primary voters was conducted October 27-29, 2010.  The margin of error is +/- 7.3 percentage points.

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Pennsylvania 2012 GOP Primary

PPP (D) Pennsylvania 2012 GOP Primary
  • Mike Huckabee 23% {19%} [20%] (27%)
  • Mitt Romney 16% {20%} [16%] (31%)
  • Sarah Palin 16% {19%} [24%] (27%)
  • Newt Gingrich 15% {19%} [23%]
  • Mitch Daniels 2%
  • Mike Pence 2%
  • Tim Pawlenty 2%
  • John Thune 1%
  • Someone else/Undecided 22%
Among Conservatives
  • Mike Huckabee 25% {20%} [22%] (28%)
  • Sarah Palin 17% {18%} [28%] (31%)
  • Newt Gingrich 15% {22%} [24%]
  • Mitt Romney 15% {21%} [14%] (28%)
  • Mitch Daniels 3%
  • Tim Pawlenty 3%
  • Mike Pence 2%
  • John Thune 0%
  • Someone else/Undecided 19%
Among Moderates
  • Mike Huckabee 17% {16%} [16%] (24%)
  • Newt Gingrich 17% {11%} [20%]
  • Mitt Romney 16% {20%} [22%] (39%)
  • Sarah Palin 15% {21%} [15%] (20%)
  • John Thune 3%
  • Tim Pawlenty 1%
  • Mike Pence 0%
  • Mitch Daniels 0%
  • Someone else/Undecided 31%
Among Men
  • Newt Gingrich 19% {27%} [23%]
  • Mike Huckabee 19% {15%} [17%] (24%)
  • Mitt Romney 18% {21%} [18%] (33%)
  • Sarah Palin 14% {17%} [26%] (30%)
  • Mitch Daniels 4%
  • Mike Pence 2%
  • Tim Pawlenty 2%
  • John Thune 1%
  • Someone else/Undecided 22% 
Among Women
  • Mike Huckabee 28% {23%} [23%] (30%)
  • Sarah Palin 20% {20%} [22%] (24%)
  • Mitt Romney 14% {20%} [14%] (28%)
  • Newt Gingrich 12% {11%} [22%]
  • Tim Pawlenty 3%
  • Mike Pence 1%
  • Mitch Daniels 1%
  • John Thune 0%
  • Someone else/Undecided 23%
Survey of 283 Republican primary voters was conducted October 30-31, 2010.  The margin of error is +/- 5.8 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted August 14-16, 2010 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted June 19-21, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 29 - April 1, 2010 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: PPP (D) New Hampshire 2012 GOP Nomination

PPP (D) New Hampshire 2012 GOP Nomination
  • Mitt Romney 40% {41%} [31%] (39%)
  • Mike Huckabee 13% {10%} [12%] (11%)
  • Newt Gingrich 10% {12%} [14%] (11%)
  • Sarah Palin 10% {12%} [9%] (13%)
  • Tim Pawlenty 4% {5%} [3%] (3%)
  • Mike Pence 3%
  • Mitch Daniels 1% {2%} [1%]
  • John Thune 1%
  • Someone else/Undecided 19%
Among Men
  • Mitt Romney 37% {38%} [33%] (37%)
  • Mike Huckabee 12% {8%} [10%] (10%)
  • Sarah Palin 12% {14%} [9%] (15%)
  • Newt Gingrich 11% {14%} [18%] (13%)
  • Tim Pawlenty 5% {5%} [4%] (3%)
  • Mike Pence 4%
  • Mitch Daniels 2% {3%} [2%]
  • John Thune 1%
  • Someone else/Undecided 15%
Among Women
  • Mitt Romney 43% {43%} [29%] (41%)
  • Mike Huckabee 14% {13%} [13%] (13%)
  • Newt Gingrich 8% {9%} [9%] (9%)
  • Sarah Palin 8% {9%} [9%] (10%)
  • Tim Pawlenty 3% {4%} [2%] (3%)
  • Mitch Daniels 1% {1%} [1%]
  • Mike Pence 1%
  • John Thune 0%
  • Someone else/Undecided 22%
Among Conservatives
  • Mitt Romney 37% {38%} [34%] (38%)
  • Mike Huckabee 13% {11%} [11%] (13%)
  • Sarah Palin 13% {13%} [13%] (15%)
  • Newt Gingrich 12% {15%} [13%] (12%)
  • Tim Pawlenty 4% {4%} [4%] (2%)
  • Mike Pence 3%
  • Mitch Daniels 2% {2%} [3%]
  • John Thune 1%
  • Someone else/Undecided 15%
Among Moderates
  • Mitt Romney 46% {47%} [32%] (39%)
  • Mike Huckabee 12% {8%} [12%] (9%)
  • Newt Gingrich 6% {5%} [13%] (9%)
  • Sarah Palin 6% {9%} [4%] (9%)
  • Tim Pawlenty 5% {6%} [2%] (4%)
  • Mike Pence 2%
  • Mitch Daniels 1% {3%} [0%]
  • John Thune 1%
  • Someone else/Undecided 22% 
Survey of 582 Republican primary voters was conducted October 27-29, 2010.  The margin of error is +/- 4.1 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted September 11-12, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 23-25, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 17-18, 2010 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Colorado 2012 GOP Primary

PPP (D) Colorado 2012 GOP Primary
  • Mitt Romney 22% [25%] (44%)
  • Newt Gingrich 17% [16%]
  • Sarah Palin 17% [29%] (25%)
  • Mike Huckabee 14% [18%] (17%)
  • Tim Pawlenty 6%
  • Mike Pence 3%
  • John Thune 2%
  • Mitch Daniels 1%
  • Someone else/Undecided 18%
Among Conservatives
  • Mitt Romney 20% [24%] (40%)
  • Newt Gingrich 20% [21%]
  • Sarah Palin 19% [27%] (32%)
  • Mike Huckabee 14% [14%] (16%)
  • Tim Pawlenty 7%
  • Mike Pence 3%
  • John Thune 2%
  • Mitch Daniels 1%
  • Someone else/Undecided 14%
Among Moderates
  • Mitt Romney 27% [27%] (52%)
  • Mike Huckabee 15% [28%] (24%)
  • Sarah Palin 9% [30%] (11%)
  • Newt Gingrich 6% [5%]
  • Tim Pawlenty 3%
  • John Thune 3%
  • Mitch Daniels 2%
  • Mike Pence 1%
  • Someone else/Undecided 34%
Among Men
  • Mitt Romney 20% [25%] (49%)
  • Newt Gingrich 19% [16%]
  • Sarah Palin 17% [32%] (25%)
  • Mike Huckabee 12% [15%] (15%)
  • Tim Pawlenty 4%
  • Mike Pence 4%
  • John Thune 3%
  • Mitch Daniels 2% 
  • Someone else/Undecided 19%
Among Women
  • Mitt Romney 24% [27%] (38%)
  • Mike Huckabee 16% [24%] (20%)
  • Sarah Palin 16% [23%] (26%)
  • Newt Gingrich 15% [16%]
  • Tim Pawlenty 8%
  • Mike Pence 2%
  • John Thune 2%
  • Mitch Daniels 0%
  • Someone else/Undecided 18%
Survey of 341 likely Republican primary voters was conducted October 30-31, 2010.  The margin of error is +/- 5.3 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted May 14-16, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 5-8, 2010 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: PPP (D) California 2012 GOP Primary

PPP (D) California 2012 GOP Primary
  • Mitt Romney 25% [24%] (25%)
  • Sarah Palin 18% [18%] (18%)
  • Newt Gingrich 15% [21%] (28%)
  • Mike Huckabee 15% [17%] (13%)
  • Mike Pence 3%
  • Tim Pawlenty 2%
  • Mitch Daniels 1%
  • John Thune 1%
  • Someone else/Undecided 19%
Among Conservatives
  • Mitt Romney 24% [20%] (26%)
  • Sarah Palin 24% [21%] (19%)
  • Mike Huckabee 16% [18%] (12%)
  • Newt Gingrich 14% [24%] (33%)
  • Tim Pawlenty 4%
  • Mike Pence 4%
  • Mitch Daniels 1%
  • John Thune 1%
  • Someone else/Undecided 13%
Among Moderates
  • Mitt Romney 30% [36%] (25%)
  • Newt Gingrich 18% [13%] (17%)
  • Mike Huckabee 15% [14%] (16%)
  • Sarah Palin 2% [9%] (14%)
  • Mike Pence 1%
  • Mitch Daniels 1%
  • John Thune 1%
  • Tim Pawlenty 0%
  • Someone else/Undecided 33%
Among Men
  • Sarah Palin 24% [16%] (21%)
  • Mitt Romney 22% [25%] (25%)
  • Newt Gingrich 15% [20%] (30%)
  • Mike Huckabee 12% [17%] (9%)
  • Tim Pawlenty 3%
  • Mitch Daniels 2%
  • Mike Pence 2%
  • John Thune 1%
  • Someone else/Undecided 19%
Among Women
  • Mitt Romney 29% [24%] (25%)
  • Mike Huckabee 19% [18%] (17%)
  • Newt Gingrich 14% [22%] (26%)
  • Sarah Palin 11% [19%] (15%)
  • Mike Pence 4%
  • Tim Pawlenty 2%
  • Mitch Daniels 1%
  • John Thune 1%
  • Someone else/Undecided 18%
Survey of 317 California Republican primary voters was conducted October 29-31, 2010.  The margin of error is +/- 5.5 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted September 14-16, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 21-23, 2010 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Quinnipiac New Jersey Political Survey (Chris Christie Edition)

Quinnipiac New Jersey Political Survey (Chris Christie Edition)

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Chris Christie is handling his job as Governor?
  • Approve 51% [51%] (44%)
  • Disapprove 38% [36%] (43%)
Among Republicans
  • Approve 79% [75%] (75%)
  • Disapprove 12% [13%] (14%)
Among Independents
  • Approve 56% [61%] (50%)
  • Disapprove 32% [29%] (40%)
Among Democrats
  • Approve 22% [24%] (18%)
  • Disapprove 68% [63%] (67%)
Among Men
  • Approve 58% [63%] (53%)
  • Disapprove 31% [27%] (36%)
Among Women
  • Approve 45% [40%] (36%)
  • Disapprove 45% [44%] (50%)
Among Whites
  • Approve 58% [58%] (54%)
  • Disapprove 33% [30%] (35%)
Among Blacks
  • Approve 14% [25%] (15%)
  • Disapprove 71% [64%] (77%)
Would you describe Governor Christie as being more of a bully or more of a leader?
  • Bully 42% [39%] (43%)
  • Leader 50% [51%] (44%)
Would you describe Governor Christie as being confrontational or honest and refreshing?
  • Confrontational 48% [46%] (52%)
  • Honest/Refreshing 43% [43%] (38%)
As Governor Christie closes out his first year as Governor, would you say it has been mainly a success or mainly a failure?
  • Success 52%
  • Failure 35%
What letter grade would you give him for the job he has been doing as governor; A, B, C, D, or F?
  • A: 17% [15%]
  • B: 31% [32%]
  • C: 20% [20%]
  • D: 16% [16%]
  • F: 15% [14%]
Among Republicans
  • A: 35% [28%]
  • B: 40% [43%]
  • C: 14% [14%]
  • D: 4% [6%]
  • F: 4% [6%]
Among Independents
  • A: 16% [15%]
  • B: 35% [39%]
  • C: 19% [21%]
  • D: 18% [14%]
  • F: 12% [9%]
Among Democrats
  • A: 2% [3%]
  • B: 19% [19%]
  • C: 25% [24%]
  • D: 24% [27%]
  • F: 28% [26%]
Among Men
  • A: 21% [21%]
  • B: 37% [39%]
  • C: 16% [18%]
  • D: 14% [12%]
  • F: 11% [9%]
Among Women
  • A: 14% [10%]
  • B: 26% [26%]
  • C: 23% [22%]
  • D: 17% [20%]
  • F: 18% [19%]
Among Whites
  • A: 20% [17%]
  • B: 35% [36%]
  • C: 17% [18%]
  • D: 14% [16%]
  • F: 13% [10%]
Among Blacks
  • A: 0% [2%]
  • B: 13% [21%]
  • C: 34% [24%]
  • D: 22% [24%]
  • F: 29% [30%]
Do you think Chris Christie would make a good President or not?
  • Yes 24%
  • No 61%
Among Republicans
  • Yes 45%
  • No 36%
Among Independents
  • Yes 24%
  • No 61%
Among Democrats
  • Yes 5%
  • No 87%
Do you think Chris Christie will run for President in 2012 or not?
  • Yes, will run 21%
  • No, will not run 60%
Do you think the Christie-for-President talk represents a serious political movement or just political gossip?
  • Serious political movement 25%
  • Political gossip 67%
As you may know, Chris Christie traveled to other states to campaign for Republican candidates in the 2010 elections. Does this make you think more favorably of Christie, less favorably of Christie, or doesn't it make a difference?
  • More favorably 16%
  • Less favorably 21%
  • Doesn't make a difference 62%
Among Republicans
  • More favorably 34%
  • Less favorably 6%
  • Doesn't make a difference 58%
Among Independents
  • More favorably 11%
  • Less favorably 20%
  • Doesn't make a difference 69%
Among Democrats
  • More favorably 3%
  • Less favorably 37%
  • Doesn't make a difference 60%
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Kim Guadagno is handling her job as Lieutenant Governor?
  • Approve 31%
  • Disapprove 18%
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Frank Lautenberg is handling his job as United States Senator?
  • Approve 43% (40%)
  • Disapprove 44% (47%)
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Robert Menendez is handling his job as United States Senator?
  • Approve 38% (38%)
  • Disapprove 41% (43%)
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?
  • Approve 46% [47%] (50%)
  • Disapprove 50% [47%] (46%)
Among Republicans
  • Approve 12% [14%] (12%)
  • Disapprove 84% [80%] (85%)
Among Independents
  • Approve 42% [41%] (45%)
  • Disapprove 55% [53%] (52%)
Among Democrats
  • Approve 85% [80%] (79%)
  • Disapprove 13% [16%] (15%)
Among Men
  • Approve 41% [40%] (44%)
  • Disapprove 56% [56%] (51%)
Among Women
  • Approve 51% [53%] (54%)
  • Disapprove 45% [40%] (41%)
Among Whites
  • Approve 36% [38%] (41%)
  • Disapprove 61% [57%] (56%)
Among Blacks
  • Approve 92% [86%] (80%)
  • Disapprove 3% [7%] (14%)
Survey of 1,362 New Jersey voters was conducted November 3-8, 2010.  The margin of error is +/- 2.7 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted August 9-17, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted June 10-15, 2010 are in parentheses.

Thursday, November 04, 2010

Kondracke Smacks Down DeMint & Palin; Calls Former AK Gov a 'Joke'

POLITICO reports:

At the Roll Call/CQ election analysis session at the Ronald Reagan Building this morning, Roll Call Executive Editor and Fox News contributor Mort Kondracke blamed Sarah Palin and Jim DeMint for Republicans' failure to capture the Senate.

“The people who got slapped the hardest in this election — besides Nancy Pelosi and Barack Obama — are Jim DeMint and Sarah Palin,” he said. “Jim DeMint and Sarah Palin are responsible for the fact that the Senate did not go Republican. They’re the ones who are responsible for Christine O’Donnell. They’re the ones who are responsible for Joe Miller in Alaska. They’re the ones who are responsible for Ken Buck in Colorado. They’re the ones who are responsible for Sharron Angle in Nevada.”

Then Kondracke discussed whether Palin could be the 2012 nominee: "She's a joke even within her own party," Kondracke said. "The idea that she would be the presidential nominee is unthinkable."

Thomas Mann, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, then said: "Think of Sarah Palin and Jim DeMint as the new faces of the Republican Party. It's a nightmare for the party, but I think the adults will have a hard time talking about them with anything but complete and utter respect."

C-SPAN’s got the video.

Poll Watch: Rasmussen 2012 Republican Nomination Survey

Rasmussen 2012 Republican Nomination Survey

If the 2012 Republican Primary for President were held today would you vote for Sarah Palin, Mike Huckabee Mitt Romney, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, Newt Gingrich or Mitch Daniels?
  • Mitt Romney 20%
  • Mike Huckabee 19%
  • Sarah Palin 19%
  • Newt Gingrich 13%
  • Tim Pawlenty 6%
  • Ron Paul 5%
  • Mitch Daniels 3%
  • Some other candidate 7%
  • Not sure 8%
Suppose some of the bigger names decided not to run for President in 2012 and you had a choice between Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, John Thune, Mitch Daniels, Mike Pence, Chris Christie, Jim DeMint and Haley Barbour…for whom would you vote?
  • Chris Christie 22%
  • Ron Paul 14%
  • Tim Pawlenty 9%
  • Haley Barbour 8%
  • Jim DeMint 7%
  • John Thune 3%
  • Mike Pence 3%
  • Mitch Daniels 2%
  • Some other candidate 13%
  • Not sure 19%
Suppose Mitt Romney won the Republican nomination for president of the United States. How likely is it that you would consider supporting a third party candidate for President rather than the Republican nominee?
  • Very Likely 12%
  • Somewhat Likely 16%
  • Not Very Likely 40%
  • Not At All Likely 24%
Suppose Sarah Palin won the Republican nomination for president of the United States. How likely is it that you would consider supporting a third party candidate for President rather than the Republican nominee?
  • Very Likely 17%
  • Somewhat Likely 14%
  • Not Very Likely 31%
  • Not At All Likely 32%
Suppose Mike Huckabee won the Republican nomination for president of the United States. How likely is it that you would consider supporting a third party candidate for President rather than the Republican nominee?
  • Very Likely 11%
  • Somewhat Likely 13%
  • Not Very Likely 36%
  • Not At All Likely 34%
Suppose Newt Gingrich won the Republican nomination for president of the United States. How likely is it that you would consider supporting a third party candidate for President rather than the Republican nominee?
  • Very Likely 13%
  • Somewhat Likely 14%
  • Not Very Likely 33%
  • Not At All Likely 34%
I’m going to read you a short list of people in the news. For each, please let me know if you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable impression.
Sarah Palin
  • Very favorable 50%
  • Somewhat favorable 32%
  • Somewhat unfavorable 9%
  • Very unfavorable 8%
Mitt Romney
  • Very favorable 37%
  • Somewhat favorable 42%
  • Somewhat unfavorable 13%
  • Very unfavorable 4%
Mike Huckabee
  • Very favorable 43%
  • Somewhat favorable 36%
  • Somewhat unfavorable 12%
  • Very unfavorable 5%
Newt Gingrich
  • Very favorable 37%
  • Somewhat favorable 35%
  • Somewhat unfavorable 16%
  • Very unfavorable 7%
Haley Barbour
  • Very favorable 17%
  • Somewhat favorable 31%
  • Somewhat unfavorable 19%
  • Very unfavorable 7%
Mitch Daniels
  • Very favorable 6%
  • Somewhat favorable 30%
  • Somewhat unfavorable 18%
  • Very unfavorable 7%
Jim DeMint
  • Very favorable 18%
  • Somewhat favorable 27%
  • Somewhat unfavorable 17%
  • Very unfavorable 9%
Scott Brown
  • Very favorable 10%
  • Somewhat favorable 27%
  • Somewhat unfavorable 27%
  • Very unfavorable 11%
Chris Christie
  • Very favorable 35%
  • Somewhat favorable 18%
  • Somewhat unfavorable 14%
  • Very unfavorable 10%
Michele Bachmann
  • Very favorable 26%
  • Somewhat favorable 21%
  • Somewhat unfavorable 17%
  • Very unfavorable 10%
Tim Pawlenty
  • Very favorable 14%
  • Somewhat favorable 30%
  • Somewhat unfavorable 17%
  • Very unfavorable 7%
Mike Pence
  • Very favorable 11%
  • Somewhat favorable 22%
  • Somewhat unfavorable 18%
  • Very unfavorable 7%
John Thune
  • Very favorable 6%
  • Somewhat favorable 20%
  • Somewhat unfavorable 20%
  • Very unfavorable 8%
Marco Rubio
  • Very favorable 29%
  • Somewhat favorable 23%
  • Somewhat unfavorable 14%
  • Very unfavorable 7%
Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the Tea Party movement?
  • Favorable 79%
  • Unfavorable 9%
How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President?
  • Strongly approve 3%
  • Somewhat approve 4%
  • Somewhat disapprove 9%
  • Strongly disapprove 84%
National survey of 1,000 likely GOP primary voters was conducted November 1, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points.

Poll Watch: CNN/Opinion Research 2012 Presidential Survey

CNN/Opinion Research 2012 Presidential Survey

Republican Nomination
  • Mike Huckabee 21% [14%] {24%} (17%)
  • Mitt Romney 20% [21%] {20%} (22%)
  • Sarah Palin 14% [18%] {15%} (18%)
  • Newt Gingrich 12% [15%] {14%} (8%)
  • Ron Paul 7% [10%] {8%} (8%)
  • Haley Barbour 3% [3%] {1%} (1%)
  • Tim Pawlenty 3% [3%] {2%} (5%)
  • Mike Pence 3% [3%] {2%} (4%)
  • Rick Santorum 2% [2%] {3%} (5%)
  • Someone else (vol.) 7% [6%] {5%} (8%)
  • None/No one (vol.) 4% [0%] {5%} (2%)
  • No opinion 6% [4%] {1%} (3%)
Among Republicans
  • Mitt Romney 21% [20%]
  • Mike Huckabee 21% [17%]
  • Sarah Palin 16% [21%]
  • Newt Gingrich 14% [15%]
  • Ron Paul 4% [7%]
  • Tim Pawlenty 3% [2%]
  • Rick Santorum 3% [3%]
  • Haley Barbour 3% [3%]
  • Mike Pence 2% [2%] 
  • Someone else (vol.) 5%
  • None/No one (vol.) 2%
  • No opinion 6%
Among Independents
  • Mike Huckabee 20% [9%]
  • Mitt Romney 19% [23%]
  • Ron Paul 11% [14%]
  • Sarah Palin 11% [12%]
  • Newt Gingrich 9% [14%]
  • Mike Pence 3% [6%]
  • Tim Pawlenty 3% [5%]
  • Haley Barbour 2% [2%]
  • Rick Santorum 1% [2%]
  • Someone else (vol.) 10%
  • None/No one (vol.) 7%
  • No opinion 5%
Among Men
  • Mitt Romney 23% [23%]
  • Mike Huckabee 21% [11%]
  • Newt Gingrich 13% [17%]
  • Sarah Palin 12% [16%]
  • Ron Paul 9% [13%]
  • Mike Pence 4% [4%]
  • Tim Pawlenty 4% [3%]
  • Haley Barbour 3% [4%]
  • Rick Santorum 2% [2%]
Among Women
  • Mike Huckabee 20% [18%]
  • Mitt Romney 17% [19%]
  • Sarah Palin 17% [20%]
  • Newt Gingrich 9% [13%]
  • Ron Paul 4% [6%]
  • Rick Santorum 3% [2%]
  • Haley Barbour 3% [1%]
  • Tim Pawlenty 2% [4%]
  • Mike Pence 1% [3%]
Attended College
  • Mitt Romney 25% [28%]
  • Mike Huckabee 18% [15%]
  • Newt Gingrich 14% [16%]
  • Sarah Palin 9% [13%]
  • Ron Paul 6% [9%]
  • Tim Pawlenty 4% [3%]
  • Rick Santorum 3% [2%]
  • Mike Pence 3% [2%]
  • Haley Barbour 2% [2%]
No College
  • Mike Huckabee 24% [13%]
  • Sarah Palin 20% [24%]
  • Mitt Romney 13% [12%]
  • Newt Gingrich 9% [14%]
  • Ron Paul 7% [10%]
  • Haley Barbour 4% [4%]
  • Mike Pence 2% [5%]
  • Rick Santorum 2% [2%]
  • Tim Pawlenty 1% [4%]
Income $50K+
  • Mitt Romney 31% [29%]
  • Mike Huckabee 17% [16%]
  • Newt Gingrich 13% [12%]
  • Sarah Palin 9% [12%]
  • Ron Paul 6% [7%]
  • Mike Pence 4% [2%]
  • Haley Barbour 3% [4%]
  • Tim Pawlenty 3% [4%]
  • Rick Santorum 2% [3%]
Income under $50K
  • Mike Huckabee 27% [11%]
  • Sarah Palin 18% [27%]
  • Newt Gingrich 9% [19%]
  • Ron Paul 8% [11%]
  • Mitt Romney 7% [12%]
  • Tim Pawlenty 4% [2%]
  • Haley Barbour 3% [2%]
  • Mike Pence 2% [6%]
  • Rick Santorum 2% [2%]
(IF DEMOCRAT) Do you think the Democratic party should renominate Barack Obama as the party's candidate for president in 2012, or do you think the Democratic party should nominate a different candidate for president in 2012?
  • Renominate Obama 73% [74%] (76%)
  • Different candidate 22% [23%] (20%)
Presidential Election
  • Mike Huckabee 52% {45%}
  • Barack Obama 44% {54%}
  • Mitt Romney 50% {45%}
  • Barack Obama 45% {53%}
  • Barack Obama 49% {55%}
  • Newt Gingrich 47% {43%}
  • Barack Obama 52% {55%}
  • Sarah Palin 44% {42%}
Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}
  • Mike Huckabee 42% {43%} {43%} / 26% {29%} {26%} {+16%}
  • Mitt Romney 36% {40%} {36%} / 29% {34%} {26%} {+7%}
  • Newt Gingrich 32% {38%} / 40% {38%} {-8%}
  • Sarah Palin 40% (38%) {39%} [43%] <46%> {42%} / 49% (52%) {55%} [46%] <46%> {51%} {-9%}
Survey of 1,006 adults, including 921 registered voters, was conducted October 27-30, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points; among the subsample of 500 Republicans and Republican-leaning Independents, +/- 4.5 percentage points; among the subsample of 453 Democrats and Democratic-leaning Independents, +/- 4.5 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted September 1-2, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted August 6-10, 2010 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted April 9-11, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 19-21, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted January 22-24, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 2-3, 2009 are in angle brackets.  Results from the poll conducted October 16-18, 2009 are in curly brackets.

Wednesday, November 03, 2010

Giuliani: GOP Should Tackle Jobs First

Swing State Blues Making Obama See red!

American voters in pivotal Battleground States redrew the electoral road map President Obama followed to victory in 2008, by electing Republicans in six Governorships in key swing states across the country yesterday. Wisconsin, Ohio, Iowa, Michigan, New Mexico and Pennsylvania are making Obama sing the blues, as all their Governor’s Mansions turned red, and marking dangerous ground the President must traverse in 2012. Losing control of these key states combined with negative voter opinion, point to a rocky road Obama needs to travel, if he wants to renew his lease at
1600 Pennsylvania Avenue
.

Results for Minnesota and Connecticut are still incomplete, and could provide the GOP with two more victories, once the final votes are counted and confirmed. Earlier today, the tight Florida Governor’s race ended, when Alex Sink conceded the race to Republican challenger, Rick Scott. Nevada, which Obama won in 2008, retained the Governorship for the Republicans, by electing Ryan Sandoval.



As outlined in an earlier article, Obama is seeing his path to an Electoral College victory become increasingly difficult. States which turned red yesterday account for 80 Electoral votes. Additional red states Obama won in 2008 but will likely flip back to the GOP are Florida, Indiana, North Carolina and Virginia, worth 66 EVs.

Exit polling data from yesterday indicate Obama has a serious problem with key voting groups he cobbled together in 2008 to win the White House. A week after he took office, Obama’s overall approval rating was 66% - a reflection of the good will from his historic victory as the nations first African-American President. Now however, his approval is 45% overall, with only 40% of Independent voters expressing approving, down from 62% in January 2009. The data also suggests voters are not merely just concerned with the economy, but generally disapprove of Obama’s policies.

The President does have the time and the ability to improve his fortunes, however. He still retains fairly high personal approval ratings. Should he move towards the center, working with the newly elected Republican House Majority in solving the nations problems, he could see his situation improve.

At this afternoon's press conference, he sounded reflective and signaled he was willing to work with the GOP. However, the issues he mostly focused on for compromise were centered around Energy policy. He gave no indication of going along with a major revision to his Health Care bill, suggesting he would merely consider modifications from the GOP. Obama also seemed willing to discuss ideas on how to get America's unemployed working, but offered no specifics, again indicating he was open to ideas.

Overall, he seemed pensive and bit contrite, but would not acknowledge Americans disagreed with him on policy, only that they were misinterpreting his intentions. There was no real indication of any movement towards the center. It may be too early to see a shift, but in light of yesterday's results, should he remain to the left of the American voter, his road to re-election will continue a difficult one.