Poll Watch: Mitchell Research/Rosetta Stone Michigan 2012 Republican Primary Survey

Mitchell Research/Rosetta Stone Michigan 2012 GOP Primary Poll

• Rick Santorum 34% (15%) 
• Mitt Romney 25% (31%)
• Ron Paul 11% (15%)
• Newt Gingrich 5% (16%)
• Undecided 25%

Survey of 455 likely Michigan Republican primary voters was conducted February 14, 2012.  The margin of error is +/- 4.6 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted February 2, 2012 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

Santorum (39%) leads Romney (29%) by 11% among Republicans. Santorum (26%) also leads with independents with Paul (21%) coming in second and Romney third (19%).

Santorum (42%) leads Romney (19%) by more than 2:1 with men while Romney leads by just 1% (29%-28%) with women.

Among the 62% of the voters that say they are Tea Party supporters, Santorum has a big 16% lead over Romney (41%-25%). Among the 23% who said they oppose the Tea Party, Santorum leads by only 1% (23%-22%).

Santorum has a 31% lead with the 37% of the voters that say they are very conservative (50%-19%). However, Romney leads Santorum with the 48% of voters who identify themselves as somewhat conservative (29%-27%) and he leads Paul and Santorum with those that say they are liberals (22%-21%-19%).

Among the 55% of the voters that say they are Evangelical or Born-Again Christians, Santorum has a 16% lead (37%-21%). Among the 45% who are not, Santorum's lead is just 1.5% (30.6%-29%).

Ron Paul (33%) leads with 18-39 year olds followed by Santorum (27%) and Romney (13%). Among 40-59 year old voters, Santorum (35%) has a 2:1 lead over Romney (17%) with Paul (13%) and Gingrich (8%) trailing behind. Among 60+ voters, Santorum only has a four and a half point lead (34.5%-30%) over Romney.

Santorum leads Romney by 17% in the Grand Rapids media market (45%-28%), by 9% in all markets other than Detroit and Grand Rapids (33%-24%), and by 7% in the Detroit market (30%-23%).