Poll Watch: PPP (D) Michigan 2012 Republican Primary Survey

PPP (D) Michigan 2012 GOP Primary Poll

February 27

• Rick Santorum 39% [37%] (37%) {39%} 
• Mitt Romney 34% [39%] (33%) {24%} [24%] 
• Ron Paul 15% [13%] (15%) {12%} [6%]
• Newt Gingrich 10% [9%] (10%) {11%} [7%]

Have you already cast your ballot for President, or do you plan to vote on election day?

February 26-27

• Already voted 17% [16%]
• Plan to vote on election day 83% [84%]

Already Voted

February 26-27

• Mitt Romney 56% [62%]
• Rick Santorum 29% [29%]
• Newt Gingrich 9% [9%]
• Ron Paul 5% [0%]

Plan to Vote on Election Day

February 27

• Rick Santorum 41% [39%]
• Mitt Romney 31% [34%]
• Ron Paul 16% [16%]
• Newt Gingrich 9% [9%]

February 26-27

Very Conservative: 36% [37%] (31%) {38%}

• Rick Santorum 45% [44%] (54%) {51%}  
  
• Mitt Romney 34% [34%] (23%) {20%}
• Newt Gingrich 10% [9%] (11%) {10%}
• Ron Paul 8% [10%] (7%) {9%}
• Someone else/Not sure 2% [3%] (6%) {10%}

Somewhat Conservative: 35% [37%] (38%) {35%}

• Mitt Romney 44% [45%] (40%) {24%} 
• Rick Santorum 33% [35%] (34%) {41%}  
  
• Ron Paul 11% [11%] (10%) {8%}
• Newt Gingrich 9% [8%] (9%) {15%} 
• Someone else/Not sure 2% [1%] (6%) {13%}

Among Men: 54% [57%] (53%) {45%}

• Rick Santorum 39% [37%] (40%) {35%}
• Mitt Romney 35% [35%] (28%) {23%}
• Ron Paul 15% [16%] (19%) {13%}
• Newt Gingrich 10% [11%] (9%) {13%}
• Someone else/Not sure 1% [1%] (4%) {15%}

Among Women: 46% [43%] (47%) {55%}

• Mitt Romney 39% [43%] (38%) {25%}
• Rick Santorum 37% [37%] (34%) {42%}
• Ron Paul 12% [9%] (10%) {12%}
• Newt Gingrich 8% [6%] (10%) {10%}
• Someone else/Not sure 4% [4%] (8%) {11%}

Would you say you are strongly committed to that candidate, or might you end up supporting someone else?

• Strongly committed to that candidate 73% [77%] (64%) {47%}
• Might end up supporting someone else 27% [23%] (36%) {53%}

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}


February 27

• Rick Santorum 56% [54%] (67%) {67%} / 36% [39%] (23%) {23%} {+20%} 
• Mitt Romney 47% [57%] (55%) {49%} [61%] (66%) {66%} / 48% [37%] (35%) {39%} [23%] (20%) {18%} {-1%}

February 26-27

Do you consider yourself to be a member of the Tea Party?

• Yes 24% [29%] (25%) {27%}
• No 63% [61%] (60%) {58%}

Are you an Evangelical Christian, or not?

• Are an Evangelical 42% [42%] (41%) {48%}
• Are not 58% [58%] (59%) {52%}

Among Evangelical Christians

• Rick Santorum 45% [42%] (51%) {48%}  
  
• Mitt Romney 31% [35%] (24%) {20%}
• Newt Gingrich 12% [14%] (10%) {12%}
• Ron Paul 10% [7%] (8%) {8%}
• Someone else/Not sure 2% [2%] (6%) {13%}

Among Non-Evangelicals

• Mitt Romney 41% [41%] (38%) {29%}
• Rick Santorum 33% [34%] (27%) {31%}  
  
• Ron Paul 17% [18%] (19%) {17%}
• Newt Gingrich 7% [4%] (9%) {11%}
• Someone else/Not sure 3% [3%] (6%) {13%}

Generally speaking, would you prefer to vote for a candidate you agree with most on the issues or a candidate who you think is best able to beat Barack Obama?

• A candidate you agree with most on the issues 56% [57%]
• A candidate you think is best able to beat Obama 33% [33%]

Are you more concerned with a candidate’s position on economic issues like jobs,
spending, taxes, and bailouts, or a candidate’s position on social issues like abortion, birth control, gay marriage, and immigration?

• Economic issues 64% [69%]
• Social issues 19% [17%]

Are you or is anyone in your household a member of a labor union?

• Yes 23% [26%] (27%) {24%}
• No 77% [74%] (73%) {76%}

Survey of 922 likely Republican primary voters, including a subsample of 501 voters on February 27, was conducted February 26-27, 2012.  The margin of error is +/- 3.2 percentage points for the full two-day sample.  Party ID: [67%] (68%) {70%} Republican; [28%] (27%) {26%} Independent; [5%] (5%) {4%} Democrat.  Political ideology: [37%] (38%) {35%} [43%] (38%) Somewhat conservative; [37%] (31%) {38%} [34%] (40%) Very conservative; [19%] (22%) {18%} [20%] (16%) Moderate; [4%] (3%) {3%} [1%] (2%) Very liberal; [3%] (6%) {6%} [2%] (3%) Somewhat liberal.  Results from the poll conducted February 26, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 17-19, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted February 10-12, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 21-24, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 18-20, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted December 3-6, 2010 are in curly brackets.