Poll Watch: American Research Group Arizona 2012 Republican Primary Survey

ARG Arizona 2012 GOP Primary Poll

• Mitt Romney 39% [38%] (32%)
• Rick Santorum 35% [31%] (10%) 
• Newt Gingrich 11% [15%] (32%)
• Ron Paul 9% [11%] (12%)
• Undecided 5% [5%] (12%)

Have Already Voted (48%)

• Mitt Romney 50%
• Rick Santorum 29%
• Newt Gingrich 13%
• Ron Paul 8%

Will Definitely/Probably Vote (52%)

• Rick Santorum 41%
• Mitt Romney 29%
• Ron Paul 10%
• Newt Gingrich 9%
• Other 2%
• Undecided 9%

Among Men (54%)

• Rick Santorum 43% [37%] (9%) 
• Mitt Romney 32% [30%] (30%)
• Newt Gingrich 13% [17%] (35%)
• Ron Paul 10% [13%] (12%)
• Undecided 1% [3%] (13%)

Among Women (46%)

• Mitt Romney 47% [47%] (34%)
• Rick Santorum 26% [24%] (11%) 
• Newt Gingrich 9% [13%] (28%)
• Ron Paul 8% [9%] (12%)
• Undecided 9% [7%] (12%)

Among Tea Party Supporters (52%)

• Rick Santorum 44% [34%] (13%) 
• Mitt Romney 34% [41%] (23%)
• Newt Gingrich 18% [10%] (40%)
• Ron Paul 1% [7%] (11%)
• Undecided 3% [8%] (13%)

Among Non-Tea Party GOP Primary Voters (48%)

• Mitt Romney 44% [35%] (40%)
  
• Rick Santorum 25% [28%] (7%) 
• Ron Paul 18% [15%] (13%)
• Newt Gingrich 3% [20%] (25%)
• Undecided 8% [2%] (11%)

Survey of 600 likely Republican primary voters was conducted February 23-24, 2012.  The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted February 13-14, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 25-26, 2012 are in parentheses.