Poll Watch: Rasmussen Oklahoma 2012 Republican Primary Survey

Rasmussen Oklahoma 2012 GOP Primary Poll

• Rick Santorum 43%
• Newt Gingrich 22%
• Mitt Romney 18%
• Ron Paul 7%
• Some other candidate 2%
• Undecided 7%

If the 2012 Republican primary for president were held today and you only had a choice between Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum. For whom would you vote?

• Rick Santorum 65%
• Mitt Romney 27%

Are you certain you will vote for that candidate or is it possible that something come up that causes you to change your mind?

• Certain 45%
• Could change mind 47%

Which Republican presidential candidate would be the strongest opponent against Barack Obama in the general election?

• Rick Santorum 35%
• Mitt Romney 30%
• Newt Gingrich 21%

Regardless of who you want to win, who do you think will win the Republican presidential nomination?

• Mitt Romney 48%
• Rick Santorum 34%

Survey of 750 likely Republican primary voters was conducted February 21, 2012. The margin of error is ± 4 percentage points.

Inside the numbers:

Santorum is well ahead of the GOP pack among very conservative primary voters in Oklahoma and leads both Romney and Gingrich by double digits among somewhat conservative voters.

Santorum also leads his closest opponent by double digits among Evangelical Christian and Catholic primary voters in the state and holds modest leads among Protestants and non-Christians.

Among Tea Party voters in Oklahoma, it's Santorum 50%, Gingrich 26%. Among primary voters who say they are not members of the grass roots movement, it’s Santorum 37%, Romney 22% and Gingrich 20%.

Santorum is viewed favorably by 84% of likely Oklahoma primary voters, Gingrich by 63% and Romney by 61%. Only 36% share a favorable opinion of Paul.

Seventy-seven percent (77%) of Oklahoma primary voters say it’s at least somewhat likely that Romney would beat Obama in November if he wins the nomination, while 73% say that about Santorum. Fifty-seven percent (57%) see a Gingrich win over Obama as likely, but most see a Paul victory as unlikely.