Poll Watch: American Research Group Michigan 2012 Republican Primary Survey

ARG Michigan 2012 GOP Primary Poll

• Rick Santorum 38% [37%] (33%) 
• Mitt Romney 34% [32%] (27%)
• Ron Paul 12% [15%] (12%)
• Newt Gingrich 7% [10%] (21%)
• Other 1% [1%] (1%)
• Undecided 8% [5%] (6%)

Among Definite Voters: 85% [80%]

• Rick Santorum 38% [38%] 
• Mitt Romney 34% [30%]
• Ron Paul 13% [15%]
  
• Newt Gingrich 6% [11%]
• Other 0% [0%]
• Undecided 9% [6%]

Among Republicans: 65% [63%]

• Rick Santorum 40% [35%] (42%) 
• Mitt Romney 36% [35%] (18%)
• Newt Gingrich 7% [13%] (24%)  
• Ron Paul 7% [15%] (11%)
• Other 0% [0%] (0%)
• Undecided 10% [2%] (5%)

Among Independents: 35% [37%]

• Rick Santorum 33% [40%] (11%)
• Mitt Romney 31% [27%] (48%)
• Ron Paul 21% [15%] (15%)
• Newt Gingrich 6% [5%] (13%) 
• Other 2% [2%] (3%)
• Undecided 7% [11%] (10%)

Among Tea Party Supporters: 39% [36%]

• Rick Santorum 49% [46%] (37%)
• Mitt Romney 31% [21%] (17%) 
• Ron Paul 8% [8%] (11%)
• Newt Gingrich 5% [21%] (29%) 
• Other 0% [0%] (0%)
• Undecided 7% [4%] (6%)

Among Non-Tea Party GOP Primary Voters: 61% (64%)

• Mitt Romney 36% [38%] (35%)
• Rick Santorum 30% [32%] (30%) 
• Ron Paul 14% [19%] (13%)
  
• Newt Gingrich 8% [4%] (14%)   
• Other 1% [1%] (2%)
• Undecided 11% [6%] (6%)

Among Men: 54% (53%)

• Rick Santorum 39% [39%] (33%) 
• Mitt Romney 30% [23%] (17%)
• Ron Paul 15% [20%] (16%)
• Newt Gingrich 7% [13%] (28%) 
  
• Other 1% [1%] (1%)
• Undecided 8% [4%] (5%)

Among Women: 46% (47%)

• Mitt Romney 39% [42%] (39%)
• Rick Santorum 36% [34%] (33%)   
  
• Ron Paul 8% [9%] (7%)
  
• Newt Gingrich 6% [7%] (12%) 
• Other 0% [0%] (1%)
• Undecided 11% [8%] (8%)

Survey of 600 likely Michigan GOP primary voters (392 Republicans, 160 independents, and 48 Democrats) was conducted February 21-22, 2012.  The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted February 15-16, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 11-12, 2012 are in parentheses.