Poll Watch: PPP (D) Michigan 2012 Republican Primary Survey

PPP (D) Michigan 2012 GOP Primary Poll

• Mitt Romney 39% (33%) {24%} [24%] 
• Rick Santorum 37% (37%) {39%} 
  
• Ron Paul 13% (15%) {12%} [6%]
• Newt Gingrich 9% (10%) {11%} [7%]
• Someone else/Not sure 2% (6%) {13%} [17%]

Have you already cast your ballot for President, or do you plan to vote on election day?

• Already voted 16%
• Plan to vote on election day 84%

Already Voted

• Mitt Romney 62%
• Rick Santorum 29%
• Newt Gingrich 9%
• Ron Paul 0%

Plan to Vote on Election Day

• Rick Santorum 39%
• Mitt Romney 34%
• Ron Paul 16%
• Newt Gingrich 9%
• Someone else/Not sure 3%

Very Conservative: 37% (31%) {38%}

• Rick Santorum 44% (54%) {51%} 
  
• Mitt Romney 34% (23%) {20%}
• Ron Paul 10% (7%) {9%}
• Newt Gingrich 9% (11%) {10%}
• Someone else/Not sure 3% (6%) {10%}

Somewhat Conservative: 37% (38%) {35%}

• Mitt Romney 45% (40%) {24%} 
• Rick Santorum 35% (34%) {41%} 
  
• Ron Paul 11% (10%) {8%}
• Newt Gingrich 8% (9%) {15%}
  
• Someone else/Not sure 1% (6%) {13%}

Among Men: 57% (53%) {45%}

• Rick Santorum 37% (40%) {35%}
• Mitt Romney 35% (28%) {23%}
• Ron Paul 16% (19%) {13%}
• Newt Gingrich 11% (9%) {13%}
• Someone else/Not sure 1% (4%) {15%}

Among Women: 43% (47%) {55%}

• Mitt Romney 43% (38%) {25%}
• Rick Santorum 37% (34%) {42%}
• Ron Paul 9% (10%) {12%}
• Newt Gingrich 6% (10%) {10%}
• Someone else/Not sure 4% (8%) {11%}

Would you say you are strongly committed to that candidate, or might you end up supporting someone else?

• Strongly committed to that candidate 77% (64%) {47%}
• Might end up supporting someone else 23% (36%) {53%}

Did you watch the debate in Arizona on Wednesday night?

• Yes 34%
• No 66%

Watched Debate

• Rick Santorum 34%
• Mitt Romney 33%
• Ron Paul 16%
• Newt Gingrich 14%
• Someone else/Not sure 3%

Did Not Watch Debate

• Mitt Romney 42%
• Rick Santorum 39%
• Ron Paul 12%
• Newt Gingrich 6%
• Someone else/Not sure 2%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Mitt Romney 57% (55%) {49%} [61%] (66%) {66%} / 37% (35%) {39%} [23%] (20%) {18%} {+20%}
• Rick Santorum 54% (67%) {67%} / 39% (23%) {23%} {+15%} 
• Ron Paul 45% (43%) {32%} / 46% (40%) {51%} {-1%} 
• Newt Gingrich 44% (39%) {38%} (55%) {52%} / 46% (50%) {47%} (24%) {26%} {-2%}

Watched Debate

• Newt Gingrich 56% / 39% {+17%}
• Rick Santorum 55% / 40% {+15%}  
• Mitt Romney 54% / 42% {+12%}
• Ron Paul 51% / 43% {+8%}

Did Not Watch Debate

• Mitt Romney 58% / 34% {+24%} 
• Rick Santorum 53% / 39% {+14%}  
• Ron Paul 42% / 48% {-6%}
• Newt Gingrich 38% / 50% {-12%}

Among Republicans

• Mitt Romney 62% / 32% {+30%}
• Rick Santorum 60% / 34% {+26%}
• Newt Gingrich 46% / 43% {+3%}
• Ron Paul 39% / 51% {-12%}

Among Independents

• Ron Paul 57% / 38% {+19%}
• Mitt Romney 47% / 47% {0%}
• Rick Santorum 44% / 49% {-5%}
• Newt Gingrich 38% / 52% {-14%}

Among Men

• Mitt Romney 56% / 41% {+15%}
• Rick Santorum 55% / 41% {+14%}
• Newt Gingrich 49% / 45% {+4%}
• Ron Paul 48% / 47% {+1%}

Among Women

• Mitt Romney 57% / 32% {+25%}
• Rick Santorum 53% / 36% {+17%}
• Ron Paul 40% / 46% {-6%} 
• Newt Gingrich 37% / 47% {-10%}

Do you consider yourself to be a member of the Tea Party?

• Yes 29% (25%) {27%}
• No 61% (60%) {58%}

Are you an Evangelical Christian, or not?

• Are an Evangelical 42% (41%) {48%}
• Are not 58% (59%) {52%}

Among Evangelical Christians

• Rick Santorum 42% (51%) {48%} 
  
• Mitt Romney 35% (24%) {20%}
• Newt Gingrich 14% (10%) {12%}
• Ron Paul 7% (8%) {8%}
• Someone else/Not sure 2% (6%) {13%}

Among Non-Evangelicals

• Mitt Romney 41% (38%) {29%}
• Rick Santorum 34% (27%) {31%} 
  
• Ron Paul 18% (19%) {17%}
• Newt Gingrich 4% (9%) {11%}
  
• Someone else/Not sure 3% (6%) {13%}

Generally speaking, would you prefer to vote for a candidate you agree with most on the issues or a candidate who you think is best able to beat Barack Obama?

• A candidate you agree with most on the issues 57%
• A candidate you think is best able to beat Obama 33%

Are you more concerned with a candidate’s position on economic issues like jobs,
spending, taxes, and bailouts, or a candidate’s position on social issues like abortion, birth control, gay marriage, and immigration?

• Economic issues 69%
• Social issues 17%

Are you or is anyone in your household a member of a labor union?

• Yes 26% (27%) {24%}
• No 74% (73%) {76%}

Survey of 421 likely Republican primary voters was conducted February 26, 2012.  The margin of error is +/- 4.8 percentage points.  Party ID: 67% (68%) {70%} Republican; 28% (27%) {26%} Independent; 5% (5%) {4%} Democrat.  Political ideology: 37% (38%) {35%} [43%] (38%) Somewhat conservative; 37% (31%) {38%} [34%] (40%) Very conservative; 19% (22%) {18%} [20%] (16%) Moderate; 4% (3%) {3%} [1%] (2%) Very liberal; 3% (6%) {6%} [2%] (3%) Somewhat liberal.  Results from the poll conducted February 17-19, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted February 10-12, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 21-24, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 18-20, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted December 3-6, 2010 are in curly brackets.