Monday, February 27, 2012

Poll Watch: American Research Group Michigan 2012 Republican Primary Survey

ARG Michigan 2012 GOP Primary Poll
  • Rick Santorum 36% {38%} [37%] (33%) 
  • Mitt Romney 35% {34%} [32%] (27%)
  • Ron Paul 15% {12%} [15%] (12%)
  • Newt Gingrich 8% {7%} [10%] (21%)
  • Undecided 6% {8%} [5%] (6%)
Among Definite Voters: 85% {85%} [80%]
  • Rick Santorum 36% {38%} [38%] 
  • Mitt Romney 35% {34%} [30%]
  • Ron Paul 16% {13%} [15%]
  • Newt Gingrich 7% {6%} [11%]
  • Undecided 6% {9%} [6%]
Among Republicans: 63% {65%} [63%]
  • Mitt Romney 38% {36%} [35%] (18%)
  • Rick Santorum 37% {40%} [35%] (42%
  • Newt Gingrich 11% {7%} [13%] (24%)  
  • Ron Paul 9% {7%} [15%] (11%)
  • Undecided 5% {10%} [2%] (5%)
Among Independents: 37% {35%} [37%]
  • Rick Santorum 34% {33%} [40%] (11%)
  • Mitt Romney 30% {31%} [27%] (48%)
  • Ron Paul 25% {21%} [15%] (15%)
  • Newt Gingrich 3% {6%} [5%] (13%) 
  • Undecided 7% {7%} [11%] (10%)
Among Tea Party Supporters: 36% {39%} [36%]
  • Rick Santorum 42% {49%} [46%] (37%)
  • Mitt Romney 27% {31%} [21%] (17%) 
  • Newt Gingrich 13% {5%} [21%] (29%)  
  • Ron Paul 11% {8%} [8%] (11%)
  • Undecided 7% {7%} [4%] (6%)
Among Non-Tea Party GOP Primary Voters: 64% {61%} (64%)
  • Mitt Romney 40% {36%} [38%] (35%)
  • Rick Santorum 32% {30%} [32%] (30%) 
  • Ron Paul 17% {14%} [19%] (13%)
  • Newt Gingrich 5% {8%} [4%] (14%)   
  • Undecided 5% {11%} [6%] (6%)
Among Men: 54% {54%} (53%)
  • Rick Santorum 38% {39%} [39%] (33%) 
  • Mitt Romney 31% {30%} [23%] (17%)
  • Ron Paul 18% {15%} [20%] (16%)
  • Newt Gingrich 9% {7%} [13%] (28%) 
  • Undecided 3% {8%} [4%] (5%)
Among Women: 46% {46%} (47%)
  • Mitt Romney 40% {39%} [42%] (39%)
  • Rick Santorum 33% {36%} [34%] (33%)   
  • Ron Paul 11% {8%} [9%] (7%)
  • Newt Gingrich 7% {6%} [7%] (12%) 
  • Undecided 9% {11%} [8%] (8%)
Survey of 600 likely Michigan GOP primary voters (377 Republicans, 163 independents, and 60 Democrats) was conducted February 25-26, 2012.  The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted February 21-22, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 15-16, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 11-12, 2012 are in parentheses.

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