Poll Watch: Rasmussen Michigan 2012 Republican Primary Survey

Rasmussen Michigan 2012 GOP Primary Poll

• Rick Santorum 38% [35%] (17%) 
• Mitt Romney 34% [32%] (38%)
• Ron Paul 10% [13%] (14%)
• Newt Gingrich 9% [11%] (23%) 
• Some other candidate 1% [1%] (1%)
• Undecided 8% [8%] (6%)

Are you certain you will vote for that candidate or is it possible that something come up that causes you to change your mind?

• Certain 57% [52%] (52%)
• Could change mind 35% [40%] (41%)
• No preference yet 8% [8%] (6%)

Note: Sixty-eight percent (68%) of Romney’s supporters are certain of their vote, as are 60% of Santorum backers, 60% of Paul's voters and 54% of Gingrich's.

Suppose the 2012 Republican Primary for president were held today and you only had a choice between Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum. For whom would you vote?

• Rick Santorum 47% [49%]
• Mitt Romney 40% [37%]

Regardless of who you want to win, who do you think will win the Republican presidential nomination?

• Mitt Romney 56% [61%] (76%)
• Rick Santorum 31% [16%]

Note: Just three percent (3%) think either Paul or Gingrich will come out on top.

Survey of 750 likely primary voters was conducted February 20, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted February 13, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 1, 2012 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

Seventy-six percent (76%) say it’s at least somewhat likely that Romney would beat Obama in November if he wins the nomination, compared to 65% who say that about Santorum. Most voters see a Gingrich or Paul win over Obama as unlikely.

Male primary voters prefer Santorum over Romney 40% to 31%, while female voters are almost evenly divided between the two.

Santorum is way ahead of Romney among Evangelical Christian primary voters in Michigan, but Romney holds much narrower leads among other Protestants, Catholics and primary voters of other faiths.

Santorum trounces Romney among Very Conservative primary voters in Michigan, while Romney holds a four-point edge among those who describe themselves as Somewhat Conservative.

Among Tea Party voters, it's Santorum 57%, Romney 23%. Primary voters who say they are not members of the grass roots movement prefer Romney 40% to 31%.

Both Santorum and Romney are viewed favorably by 71% of likely Michigan primary voters, but Santorum draws very favorable reviews from 33% compared to Romney’s 24%. Gingrich is viewed favorably by 47% of Michigan primary voters, while 41% share a favorable opinion of Paul.