Poll Watch: CBS News 2012 Republican Nomination Survey

CBS News 2012 GOP Nomination Poll

• Mitt Romney 19% [20%] {15%} (21%) [17%] {16%} 
• Newt Gingrich 15% [20%] {15%} (10%) [8%] {7%} 
• Rick Santorum 14% [3%] {2%} (1%) [3%] {1%}
• Ron Paul 10% [10%] {5%} (8%) [7%] {5%}
• Rick Perry 6% [6%] {8%} (6%) [12%] {23%}
• Jon Huntsman 4% [1%] {1%} (1%) [2%] {1%}
• Someone else 19% [19%] {14%} (12%) [10%] {11%}
• Undecided/Don't know 13% [17%] {17%} (14%) [18%] {22%}

Regardless of how you intend to vote in 2012, which one of these candidates do you think has the best chance of beating Barack Obama in the general election in November 2012?

• Mitt Romney 49% [37%] {40%}
• Newt Gingrich 13% [31%] {6%}
• Rick Santorum 8% [2%] {2%}
• Rick Perry 5% [5%] {6%}
• Ron Paul 4% [8%] {2%}
• Jon Huntsman 1% [2%] {1%}

Survey of 440 Republican primary voters was conducted January 4-8, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 5 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted December 14-18, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 6-10, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted October 19-24, 2011 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted September 28 - October 2, 2011 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 10-15, 2011 are in curly brackets.

Inside the numbers:

Each of the candidates receives their support from different factions of the Republican Party. Romney's core backing comes primarily from moderates, women and non-Tea Party supporters, while Santorum's support comes from evangelicals and voters who are very conservative, the poll shows.

Gingrich seems to be losing some of his traction with Tea Party-supporters to Santorum - a social-values conservative from Pennsylvania.

While Santorum and Gingrich are now tied among Republican primary voters who support the Tea Party movement, Gingrich led this group by 16 points as recently as December. White evangelicals now seem to firmly back Santorum in this race.

However, while Santorum leads among Republican voters who identify themselves as very conservative, Gingrich is ahead among those who say they are only somewhat conservative.

Romney and Santorum bring different perceived strengths to the race as well. Romney is viewed as most electable (and most likely to be the eventual nominee), while Santorum is seen as the candidate who best represents these voters' values - up 17 points since November. Romney is right behind him on this measure.

After his narrow victory in Iowa, 55 percent of Republican primary voters now expect Romney to eventually become the Republican nominee for president - far ahead of any other candidate. Registered voters nationwide agree.

It is important to note, however, that nationally, the race for the Republican nomination remains extremely fluid. Most voters have not completely settled on their candidate.

Even among Republican voters who do pick a candidate, seven in 10 say it's still too early to say whether their mind is really made up.