Poll Watch: Rasmussen 2012 Presidential Survey

Rasmussen 2012 Presidential Poll

I’m now going to read you a list of Republican Presidential candidates. For each, if they were to win the nomination, please tell me how likely it is that candidate will beat Barack Obama in the general election this November?

Mitt Romney

• Very likely 26%
• Somewhat likely 27%
• Not too likely 27%
• Not at all likely 11%

Rick Santorum

• Very likely 14%
• Somewhat likely 27%
• Not too likely 27%
• Not at all likely 23%

Newt Gingrich

• Very likely 13%
• Somewhat likely 21%
• Not too likely 31%
• Not at all likely 29%

Ron Paul

• Very likely 8%
• Somewhat likely 19%
• Not too likely 34%
• Not at all likely 33%

Jon Huntsman

• Very likely 5%
• Somewhat likely 15%
• Not too likely 37%
• Not at all likely 34%

Survey of 1,000 likely voters was conducted January 5-6, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points.

Inside the numbers:

Perhaps not surprisingly, Republicans have more confidence in their field of candidates than Democrats and voters not affiliated with either of the major parties do. Most GOP voters think Romney (70%), Santorum (64%) and Gingrich (60%) are likely to defeat the president. But two-out-of-three Republicans say Huntsman and Paul are not likely to win.

Fifty percent (50%) of unaffiliated voters believe Romney is likely to win in November, but a plurality or majority of these voters feel the other GOP contenders are unlikely to do so.

Seventy-seven percent (77%) of Tea Party voters think a Romney victory is likely, and 72% and 67% say the same of Santorum and Gingrich respectively. A plurality (49%) of non-members see Romney as the likely winner, but the majority of these voters thinks victory by any of the other four Republican candidates is unlikely.