Poll Watch: Rasmussen New Hampshire 2012 Republican Primary Survey

Rasmussen New Hampshire 2012 GOP Primary Poll

• Mitt Romney 37% [42%] (33%) {34%} [41%] (39%)
• Ron Paul 17% [18%] (18%) {14%} [11%] (13%)
• Jon Huntsman 15% [12%] (10%) {11%} [7%] (7%)
• Rick Santorum 13% [13%] (3%) {1%} [1%] (2%)
• Newt Gingrich 12% [8%] (22%) {24%} [8%] (4%)  
• Rick Perry 1% [1%] (3%) {2%} [4%] (18%) 
• Some other candidate 1% [1%]
• Undecided 3% [6%]

Survey of 722 likely Republican primary voters was conducted January 8, 2012. The margin of error is ± 4 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted January 5, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 12, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted November 28, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted October 25, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 21, 2011 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

A Romney win in New Hampshire still seems highly likely at this point even with 28% of primary voters saying they could change their minds. Sixty-nine percent (69%) are certain at this time whom they will vote for. Seventy-six percent (76%) of Romney supporters are sure how they’ll vote, as are 80% of Paul’s voters and 70% of those who back Gingrich. Roughly 60% of the supporters of the other candidates are certain of their vote.

There’s virtually a three-way tie at the top among Tea Party voters in New Hampshire, with Gingrich at 25%, Romney at 24% and Santorum at 22%. Among those who are not members of the grass roots movement, Romney has the support of a plurality (40%) of voters.

Fifty-one percent (51%) here think Romney would be the strongest foe for Obama. Gingrich is a distant second with 15% support. Paul is seen as the weakest GOP candidate to run against the president, a view shared by 33% of Granite State Republicans, while 22% think Perry would be the weakest opponent.

Regardless of whom they want to win the primary, 70% expect Romney to emerge victorious. Seventy-one percent (71%) think it’s at least somewhat likely the Republican nominee will win in November, with 46% who say it’s Very Likely.

The bad news for Republicans is that 17% of these likely primary voters say they will vote for Obama if their favorite candidate doesn’t win, and another eight percent (8%) will support a third party candidate. Seventy percent (70%) will support the Republican no matter who he is. Most of Ron Paul’s supporters say they will vote either for Obama or a third party if their candidate doesn’t win.

Romney remains the best-liked candidate among likely GOP primary voters in New Hampshire, with favorables of 66%. Huntsman and Santorum are the only other candidates with higher favorables than unfavorables, earning positives of 54% and 51% respectively. Fifty-two percent (52%) have unfavorable opinions of both Paul and Gingrich, while 66% say the same of Perry.

Just 19% of these primary voters at least somewhat approve of the job Obama is doing as president, with eight percent (8%) who Strongly Approve.