Poll Watch: Rasmussen 2012 Republican Nomination Survey

Rasmussen 2012 GOP Nomination Poll

• Rick Santorum 39% [18%] (16%) {15%} [21%] (4%) {1%} [2%] (3%) {1%}   
• Mitt Romney 27% [34%] (28%) {30%} [29%] (17%) {23%} [29%] (24%) {18%} [22%] (33%) {17%} [24%] (20%)  
  
• Newt Gingrich 15% [27%] (35%) {27%} [16%] (38%) {14%} [10%] (9%) {5%} [6%] (9%) {9%} [11%] (13%)
• Ron Paul 10% [11%] (10%) {13%} [12%] (8%) {7%} [5%] (6%) {9%} [10%] (7%) {8%} [4%] (5%)

Very Conservative

• Rick Santorum 53% [28%] (21%) {18%} 
  
• Mitt Romney 17% [17%] (16%) {25%}
  
• Newt Gingrich 17% [41%] (49%) {35%}
• Ron Paul 5% [6%] (7%)

Somewhat Conservative

• Rick Santorum 37%
• Mitt Romney 34% [45%] (33%) {33%}
• Newt Gingrich 14% [24%] (32%) {23%}
• Ron Paul 8%
  

Among Tea Party Voters

• Rick Santorum 53% [25%] (20%) {20%}
• Mitt Romney 18% [25%] (16%) {21%}

Note: Nearly one-in-three Republican voters (32%) regard themselves as members of the Tea Party. Romney consistently has led the field among non-Tea Party Republicans, but now he and Santorum are tied among this group with 33% support each.

If the 2012 Republican Primary for president were held today and you only had a choice between Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum, for whom would you vote?

• Rick Santorum 55% [38%]
• Mitt Romney 34% [50%]

If the 2012 Republican Primary for president were held today and you only had a choice between Mitt Romney and Ron Paul, for whom would you vote?

• Mitt Romney 47% [58%]
• Ron Paul 42% [30%]

If the 2012 Republican Primary for president were held today and you only had a choice between Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich, for whom would you vote?

• Mitt Romney 47% [46%]
• Newt Gingrich 38% [40%]

Are you certain you will vote for that candidate or is it possible that something come up that causes you to change your mind?

• Certain 45%
• Could change mind 49%
• No preference yet 9%

Survey of 1,000 likely GOP primary voters was conducted February 14, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted February 6, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 23, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted January 17, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 4, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 30, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted November 2, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted October 12, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 19, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted August 15, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 28, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted June 14, 2011 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted April 26, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 18, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 1, 2010 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

Santorum leads Romney nearly four-to-one and Gingrich better than two-to-one among Evangelical Christian Republicans. Romney has generally led among GOP voters of other religious faiths in the past, but now Santorum edges him 35% to 30% among other Protestants and 45% to 33% among Catholics. Only among Republicans of all other faiths does Romney hold a 39% to 23% lead over the former Pennsylvania senator.

Seventy-five percent (75%) of likely Republican primary voters have a favorable opinion of Santorum. Romney is viewed favorably by 66%, Gingrich by 53% and Paul by 41%.

Sixty-four percent (64%) of likely primary voters nationwide still think Romney ultimately will win the Republican nomination, although that’s down from 75% a week ago. Just 18% see Santorum as the GOP nominee, but that’s up from three percent (3%) in the previous survey.