Poll Watch: Rasmussen Arizona 2012 Republican Primary Survey

Rasmussen Arizona 2012 GOP Primary Poll

• Mitt Romney 48%
• Newt Gingrich 24%
• Rick Santorum 13%
• Ron Paul 6% 
• Some other candidate 2%
• Undecided 6%

Are you certain you will vote for that candidate or is it possible that something come up that causes you to change your mind?

• Certain 53%
• Could change mind 42%
• No preference yet 6%

Note:  Voters already sure of their vote include 62% of those supporting both Romney and Paul, 48% of Gingrich’s voters and 46% of Santorum’s.

Regardless of who you want to win, who do you think will win the Republican presidential nomination?

• Mitt Romney 77%
• Newt Gingrich 12%

Which Republican presidential candidate would be the strongest opponent against Barack Obama in the general election?

• Mitt Romney 59%
• Newt Gingrich 24%

Note: Paul is seen as the weakest general election opponent by 63%.

Which Republican candidate would do the best job managing the economy?

• Mitt Romney 54%
• Newt Gingrich 22%

Which Republican candidate would do the best job on the issue of national security and defense?

• Newt Gingrich 37%
• Mitt Romney 37%

Which Republican candidate would do the best job on social issues?

• Mitt Romney 40%
• Rick Santorum 28%

Which Republican candidate has the best personal character?

• Mitt Romney 44%
• Rick Santorum 34%
• Ron Paul 8%
• Newt Gingrich 7%

In terms of how you will vote in the next national election, are you primarily interested in National Security issues such as the War in Afghanistan and the War on Terror, Economic issues such as jobs and economic growth, Domestic Issues like Social Security and Health Care, Cultural issues such as same-sex marriage and abortion, or Fiscal issues such as taxes and government spending?

• Economic issues 49%
• Fiscal issues 24%
  

Survey of 750 likely primary voters was conducted February 1, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.

Inside the numbers:

Male primary voters in Arizona favor Romney over Gingrich 46% to 30%, and the gap is even larger – 51% to 18% - among women.

Romney leads by double digits among primary voters who consider themselves Very Conservative and those who are Somewhat Conservative.

Tea Party voters in Arizona give the edge to Gingrich 39% to 33% over Romney.  Primary voters not affiliated with the movement heavily favor Romney.

In Arizona, 47% of GOP primary voters rate their personal finances as good or excellent, while 16% rate them as poor. While 20% say their finances are getting better, 51% say they are getting worse.

Eighty-two percent (82%) of Arizona primary voters say they will still vote for the Republican candidate in the general election even if their favorite doesn’t win the nomination.

Romney is viewed favorably by 78% of likely Arizona primary voters, Santorum by 63%, Gingrich by 55% and Paul by just 34%.