Poll Watch: Rasmussen Arizona 2012 Republican Primary Survey

Rasmussen Arizona 2012 GOP Primary Poll

• Mitt Romney 39% (48%)
• Rick Santorum 31% (13%) 
• Newt Gingrich 15% (24%)
• Ron Paul 7% (6%)
• Some other candidate 3% (2%)
• Undecided 5% (6%)

Are you certain you will vote for that candidate or is it possible that something come up that causes you to change your mind?

• Certain 70% (53%)
• Could change mind 26% (42%)
• No preference yet 5% (6%)

Note:  Those certain of their vote include 78% of Romney supporters, 76% of Gingrich voters, 69% of Santorum’s backers and 60% of Paul’s.

If the 2012 Republican Primary for president were held today and you only had a choice between Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum. For whom would you vote?

• Mitt Romney 46%
• Rick Santorum 45%

Regardless of who you want to win, who do you think will win the Republican presidential nomination?

• Mitt Romney 67% (77%)
• Rick Santorum 20%

Which Republican presidential candidate would be the strongest opponent against Barack Obama in the general election?

• Mitt Romney 50% (59%)
• Rick Santorum 23%

Please tell me how likely it is that candidate will beat Barack Obama in the general election this November.

Mitt Romney

• Very likely 42%
• Somewhat likely 38%

Rick Santorum

• Very likely 24%
• Somewhat likely 41%

Survey of 750 likely primary voters was conducted February 16, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted February 1, 2012 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

Among Arizona GOP voters who say they are members of the Tea Party, Santorum posts a 38% to 32% lead over Romney, but the former governor earns the support of a plurality (45%) of non-Tea Party members. Voters who say they are Very Conservative prefer Santorum to Romney by a narrow 37% to 34%. Romney leads the former Pennsylvania senator 45% to 28% among Somewhat Conservative Republicans in the state.

Evangelical Christians and Catholics favor Santorum over Romney by small margins. Romney leads among other Protestants and Republicans of other faiths.

Seventy-eight percent (78%) of likely primary voters in Arizona view Santorum favorably, while 73% feel that way about Romney. Gingrich earns favorables from 53%, Paul from 37%.