Poll Watch: Rasmussen Michigan 2012 Republican Primary Survey

Rasmussen Michigan 2012 GOP Primary Poll

• Rick Santorum 35% (17%) 
• Mitt Romney 32% (38%)
• Ron Paul 13% (14%)
• Newt Gingrich 11% (23%) 
• Some other candidate 1% (1%)
• Undecided 8% (6%)

Are you certain you will vote for that candidate or is it possible that something come up that causes you to change your mind?

• Certain 52% (52%)
• Could change mind 40% (41%)
• No preference yet 8% (6%)

Note:  Fifty-eight percent (58%) of Santorum’s supporters are certain of their vote, as are 57% of Romney backers, 61% of Paul supporters and 50% of Gingrich voters.

Suppose your favorite candidate does not win the nomination. When the general election is held, would you be most likely to vote for the Republican candidate, President Barack Obama, or a third party candidate?

• Republican candidate 76% (76%)
• President Barack Obama 10% (9%)
• Third party candidate 6% (8%)

Note: As is the case nationally and in other states, Paul supporters are much more likely to vote third party if their candidate is not the nominee.

Regardless of who you want to win, who do you think will win the Republican presidential nomination?

• Mitt Romney 61% (76%)
• Rick Santorum 16%

Which Republican presidential candidate would be the strongest opponent against Barack Obama in the general election?

• Mitt Romney 42% (51%)
• Rick Santorum 25% (9%)

Note: Paul is seen as the weakest potential GOP candidate by 57% of Michigan primary voters.

Survey of 750 likely primary voters was conducted February 13, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted February 1, 2012 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

Santorum holds a 35% to 29% edge over Romney among men in Michigan, while women are more evenly divided between the two candidates.

Michigan holds an open primary which means voters other than registered Republicans can vote. Among Republicans likely to participate in the Michigan primary, Santorum holds a modest 38% to 34% edge over Romney. Among all other primary participants, it’s Romney 29%, Santorum 29%.

Nearly half of Tea Party voters in the state support Santorum, while Romney holds a double-digit lead among those not affiliated with the movement.

Santorum is the only candidate who leads the national GOP front-runner when the race is down to a two-man face-off in Michigan. Santorum bests Romney 49% to 37% in a one-on-one matchup, while Romney leads Gingrich 51% to 32% and Paul 63% to 25%.

Santorum is viewed favorably by 76% of likely Michigan primary voters, up from 65% in the previous poll. Romney is viewed favorably by 69%, down from 73%. Gingrich and Paul draw favorable marks from 51% and 44% respectively.