Poll Watch: Washington Post/ABC News 2012 Presidential Survey

Washington Post/ABC News 2012 Presidential Survey

REPUBLICAN NOMINATION

• Mitt Romney 21% [16%]
• Sarah Palin 17% [5%]
• Rudy Giuliani 8%
• Ron Paul 6% [2%]
• Newt Gingrich 6% [2%]
• Herman Cain 4%
• Tim Pawlenty 4% [1%]
• Rick Perry 3%
• Michele Bachmann 3% [1%]
• Chris Christie 1% [1%]
• Rick Santorum 1% [0%]
• Jon Huntsman 1% [0%]
• Gary Johnson 0%
• Other 3% [5%]
• No one/None of them 5% [12%]
• Anyone/Any of them 0% [4%]
• No opinion 14% [33%]

Who would your second choice be?

• Mitt Romney 17%
• Sarah Palin 13%
• Rudy Giuliani 10%
• Newt Gingrich 9%
• Ron Paul 7%
• Michele Bachmann 6%
• Herman Cain 5%
• Tim Pawlenty 5%
• Jon Huntsman 2%
• Rick Perry 2%
• Chris Christie 1%
• Gary Johnson 1%
• Rick Santorum 1%
• Donald Trump 1%
• Other 2%
• No one/None of them 6%
• Anyone/Any of them 1%
• No opinion 3%

I’m going to name some people who are running or might run for the Republican nomination for president. For each, please tell me if you would strongly consider voting for that person in the Republican primary or caucus in your state, consider them but not strongly, or if you would definitely NOT vote for them for the Republican nomination for president. If you don’t know enough about them to say, just tell me that.

Among Republicans

Mitt Romney

• Strongly consider 24%
• Consider but not strongly 46%
• Definitely not 18%
• Don't know enough to say 13%

Rudy Giuliani

• Strongly consider 21%
• Consider but not strongly 40%
• Definitely not 27%
• Don't know enough to say 12%

Sarah Palin

• Strongly consider 24%
• Consider but not strongly 37%
• Definitely not 38%
• Don't know enough to say 1%

Michele Bachmann

• Strongly consider 15%
• Consider but not strongly 28%
• Definitely not 23%
• Don't know enough to say 35%

Newt Gingrich

• Strongly consider 14%
• Consider but not strongly 38%
• Definitely not 34%
• Don't know enough to say 15%

Ron Paul

• Strongly consider 14%
• Consider but not strongly 29%
• Definitely not 36%
• Don't know enough to say 21%

Tim Pawlenty

• Strongly consider 12%
• Consider but not strongly 22%
• Definitely not 20%
• Don't know enough to say 45%

Herman Cain

• Strongly consider 12%
• Consider but not strongly 19%
• Definitely not 19%
• Don't know enough to say 50%

Rick Perry

• Strongly consider 9%
• Consider but not strongly 21%
• Definitely not 19%
• Don't know enough to say 51%

Jon Huntsman

• Strongly consider 5%
• Consider but not strongly 17%
• Definitely not 19%
• Don't know enough to say 60%

Rick Santorum

• Strongly consider 4%
• Consider but not strongly 24%
• Definitely not 23%
• Don't know enough to say 48%

Gary Johnson

• Strongly consider 1%
• Consider but not strongly 10%
• Definitely not 20%
• Don't know enough to say 69%

GENERAL ELECTION

• Mitt Romney (R) 49% [45%]
• Barack Obama (D) 46% [49%]

• Barack Obama (D) 50% [54%]
• Newt Gingrich (R) 44% [39%]

• Barack Obama (D) 50% [52%]
• Tim Pawlenty (R) 41% [39%]

• Barack Obama 50%
• Jon Huntsman 40%

• Barack Obama (D) 51% [52%]
• Michele Bachmann (R) 40% [38%]

• Barack Obama (D) 55% [56%] (53%)
• Sarah Palin (R) 40% [37%] (40%)

If Sarah Palin runs for president in 2012, would you definitely vote for her, would you consider voting for her, or would you definitely not vote for her?

• Definitely would 7% (8%)
• Would consider 28% (31%)
• Definitely would not 64% (59%)

Among Republicans

• Definitely would 12% (13%)
• Would consider 46% (49%)
• Definitely would not 42% (36%)

Palin’s long odds

Regardless of whether or not you'd vote for her, do you think Palin is or is not qualified to serve as president?

• Is qualified 33%
• Is not qualified 63%

Given what you know about it, do your support or oppose the health care reform plan that Mitt Romney put into place in Massachusetts when he was governor there? Do you support/oppose it strongly or somewhat?

Among Republicans

• Strongly support 3%
• Somewhat support 18%
• Somewhat oppose 16%
• Strongly oppose 25%

Survey of registered voters was conducted June 2-5, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 3.5 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted April 14-17, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 9-12, 2010 are in parentheses.

Inside the Numbers:

Overall dissatisfaction with the GOP field remains high, with as many respondents saying they are unhappy with their choices as say they are satisfied. At this time four years ago, nearly seven in 10 Republicans said they were satisfied with their field of candidates. 

Romney owes his relatively good standing against the president to support from independents. He and Obama garner roughly equal percentages from those in their own parties. But independents split for Romney 50 percent to 43 percent. 

The president continues to receive positive marks as a strong leader, but the 55 percent rating marks a low point of his presidency. He gets mixed reviews on empathy and on sharing the same values as respondents.