Gallup 2012 Daily Presidential Tracking Poll
- Barack Obama 47%
- Mitt Romney 44%
It is important to note that Obama’s gains have come entirely from the Rising American Electorate (youth, unmarried women, African Americans and Latinos) – the broad coalition of voters who supported him enthusiastically in 2008. These voters are beginning to come back. Obama has moved his vote up from 60 to 63 percent with the Rising American Electorate and Romney has slipped a like amount. The gains have come with African Americans (Obama’s vote is up from 88 to 95 percent) and unmarried women (up from 60 to 63 percent). African American gains are driving up the youth vote, but Romney has fallen off with whites under 30 years old. This vote is still well short of 2008, but Obama has improved his vote margin with young people by 15 points since the beginning of this year.
Obama has moved slightly ahead among independents (46 to 44 percent) after trailing slightly in previous polls — and he has consolidated his bloc more than Romney — with only 1 percent vulnerable in our Obama Voter Choice Scale.
Flake earns the support of 82% of Republicans, while Cardon is favored by just 65% of the voters in his own party. Carmona picks up 77% Democratic support against Cardon but just 69% against Flake. Both GOP candidates lead Carmona among voters not affiliated with either political party.
Among all voters in Arizona, 19% have a Very Favorable impression of Flake, while 12% share a Very Unfavorable view of him.
Cardon is viewed Very Favorably by seven percent (7%) and Very Unfavorably by 16%.
Carmona is seen Very Favorably by 12% and Very Unfavorably by 12%.
Thirty-four percent (34%) of Arizona voters agree with the U.S. Supreme Court’s ruling earlier this week on the state’s controversial immigration law, but a plurality (42%) disagree with that decision. Twenty-three percent (23%) are undecided.
Among those voters in the state who agree with the ruling, Flake leads Carmona 41% to 35%, while Carmona is ahead 50% to 31% when pitted against Cardon. Both Republicans hold a sizable lead among those who disagree with the ruling.