Thursday, February 02, 2012

Poll Watch: Las Vegas Review-Journal/8NewsNow/UNLV Nevada 2012 Republican Caucus Survey

LVRJ/8NewsNow/UNLV Nevada 2012 GOP Caucus Poll
  • Mitt Romney 45% (33.1%)
  • Newt Gingrich 25% (29.2%)
  • Rick Santorum 11% (3.4%)
  • Ron Paul 9% (12.7%)
Survey of 426 Republicans who said they plan to participate in the caucuses was conducted January 27-31, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4.75 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted December 12-20, 2011 are in parentheses.
Inside the numbers:
At the core of Romney's strength in Nevada is support from fellow Mormons. The survey showed 85.5 percent of members of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints said they planned to caucus for Romney compared with single-digit LDS support for the other candidates. Mormons made up one-quarter of GOP caucus-goers in 2008, although they are about 7 percent of the state population.

Romney also had more support than his GOP competitors among every other religious group as well, including Christians, Protestants, Catholics and others, according to the survey.

Gingrich led Romney and the GOP field among those Republicans who said they "strongly support" the tea party movement with 37 percent backing compared with 27 percent for Romney, 20 percent for Santorum and 9 percent for Paul. But Romney won backing from more than half of those Republicans who said they "somewhat support" the tea party and from those who support it "only a little."

Only 5.4 percent of likely GOP caucus-goers described themselves as Hispanic. About 26 percent of Nevada's population is Hispanic, a group that leans heavily Democratic.

Older voters made up much of the GOP caucus-goer polling sample, with 47 percent over 55 years of age, 37 percent 35 to 54 and 16 percent under 35. More than seven out of 10 said they strongly and somewhat support the tea party.

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