Poll Watch: Rasmussen Michigan 2012 Republican Primary Survey

Rasmussen Michigan 2012 GOP Primary Poll

• Mitt Romney 38%
• Newt Gingrich 23%
• Rick Santorum 17%
• Ron Paul 14% 
• Some other candidate 1%
• Undecided 6%

Are you certain you will vote for that candidate or is it possible that something come up that causes you to change your mind?

• Certain 52%
• Could change mind 41%
• No preference yet 6%

Note:  Voters already sure of their vote include 59% of those supporting both Romney and Gingrich, 56% of Paul’s voters and 46% of Santorum’s.

Suppose your favorite candidate does not win the nomination. When the general election is held, would you be most likely to vote for the Republican candidate, President Barack Obama, or a third party candidate?

• Republican candidate 76%
• President Barack Obama 9%
• Third party candidate 8%

Note: Paul supporters in Michigan are by far more likely to vote third party if he is not the Republican standard beater. 

Regardless of who you want to win, who do you think will win the Republican presidential nomination?

• Mitt Romney 76%
• Newt Gingrich 13%

Which Republican presidential candidate would be the strongest opponent against Barack Obama in the general election?

• Mitt Romney 51%
• Newt Gingrich 26%

Note: Paul is seen as the weakest potential GOP candidate by 52%.

Which Republican candidate would do the best job managing the economy?

• Mitt Romney 43%
• Newt Gingrich 21%

Which Republican candidate would do the best job on the issue of national security and defense?

• Newt Gingrich 41%
• Mitt Romney 24%

Which Republican candidate would do the best job on social issues?

• Mitt Romney 32%
• Rick Santorum 27%
• Newt Gingrich 16%
• Ron Paul 14%

Which Republican candidate has the best personal character?

• Rick Santorum 40%
• Mitt Romney 30%
• Ron Paul 12%
• Newt Gingrich 6%

Looking back, was it a good idea or a bad idea for the federal government to provide bailout funding for General Motors and Chrysler?

• Good idea 35%
• Bad idea 54%

Note: All the Republican candidates were opposed to the federal government bailout of General Motors and Chrysler, both headquartered in Michigan.

In terms of how you will vote in the next national election, are you primarily interested in National Security issues such as the War in Afghanistan and the War on Terror, Economic issues such as jobs and economic growth, Domestic Issues like Social Security and Health Care, Cultural issues such as same-sex marriage and abortion, or Fiscal issues such as taxes and government spending?

• Economic issues 50%
• Fiscal issues 23%
  

Survey of 750 likely primary voters was conducted February 1, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.

Inside the numbers:

While Romney leads Gingrich by nine among male voters, the former Massachusetts governor holds a two-to-one lead – 42% to 21% - among female Republicans in the state.

At this point, Gingrich, Romney and Santorum run nearly even among Tea Party Republicans and GOP voters who describe themselves as Very Conservative in Michigan. Romney has a slight lead over Gingrich among Evangelical Christians but holds double-digit leads among other Protestants, Catholics and GOP voters of other faiths.

Romney is viewed favorably by 73% of likely Michigan primary voters, Santorum by 65%, Gingrich by 55% and Paul by 44%.

Forty-three percent (43%) describe their finances as good or excellent, while just 16% say they are poor. But only 21% say those finances are getting better, while more than twice as many (46%) say their finances are getting worse.