Poll Watch: PPP (D) North Carolina 2012 Presidential Survey

PPP (D) North Carolina 2012 Presidential Poll

• Rick Santorum 46%
• Barack Obama 46%

• Barack Obama 46% [46%] (45%) {46%} [45%] (46%) {45%} [45%] (46%) {47%} [44%] (47%) {47%} [46%] (44%)
• Mitt Romney 45% [46%] (46%) {45%} [44%] (43%) {45%} [44%] (43%) {44%} [42%] (44%) {44%} [43%] (44%)

• Barack Obama 49% [49%] (50%) {49%} [48%] [50%] (50%) {49%} [47%] (48%) {50%} [48%] (46%)
• Newt Gingrich 43% [45%] (43%) {42%} [43%] [40%] (42%) {45%} [42%] (44%) {44%} [42%] (45%)

• Barack Obama 47% [47%] (48%) {46%}
• Ron Paul 41% [42%] (40%) {43%}

• Barack Obama 49% [50%] (50%) {48%} [46%] (48%)
• Rick Perry 41% [42%] (42%) {44%} [46%] (40%)

Note: In 2008, John McCain received 49% of the vote in North Carolina. In 2004, George W. Bush received 56% of the vote in NC.

Among Independents

• Rick Santorum 53%
• Barack Obama 33%

• Mitt Romney 51% [45%] (49%) {50%} [56%] (39%) {50%} [47%] (43%) {40%} [37%] (42%) {39%} [37%] (50%)
• Barack Obama 31% [40%] (34%) {34%} [29%] (38%) {33%} [36%] (42%) {43%} [40%] (41%) {44%} [44%] (37%)

• Ron Paul 47% [47%] (48%) {50%}
• Barack Obama 31% [39%] (38%) {36%}

• Rick Perry 50% [41%] (45%) {47%} [54%] (43%)
  
• Barack Obama 37% [45%] (44%) {45%} [31%] (42%)

• Newt Gingrich 47% [47%] (46%) {47%} [48%] [33%] (38%) {43%} [27%] (38%) {42%} [38%] (44%)
• Barack Obama 37% [43%] (44%) {42%} [38%] [45%] (50%) {47%} [45%] (45%) {49%} [41%](39%)

Note: In 2008, John McCain received 60% of the Independent vote in North Carolina (27% of the electorate). In 2004, George W. Bush received 56% of the Independent vote in NC (21% of the electorate).

Among Men

• Rick Santorum 53%
• Barack Obama 39%

• Mitt Romney 53% [54%] (54%) {53%} [51%] (49%) {48%} [48%] (47%) {43%} [44%] (49%) {45%} [49%] (52%)
• Barack Obama 39% [39%] (39%) {36%} [38%] (38%) {41%} [46%] (41%) {49%} [42%] (44%) {43%} [39%] (37%)

• Ron Paul 51% [50%] (45%) {51%}
• Barack Obama 40% [41%] (42%) {36%}

• Newt Gingrich 50% [53%] (49%) {51%} [51%] [41%] (46%) {45%} [45%] (49%) {47%} [45%] (55%)
• Barack Obama 43% [43%] (44%) {41%} [41%] [50%] (45%) {49%} [44%] (44%) {45%} [44%] (38%)

• Rick Perry 50% [52%] (46%) {52%} [53%] (49%)
• Barack Obama 43% [43%] (45%) {39%} [39%] (42%)

Note: In 2008, John McCain received 56% of the Male vote in North Carolina (46% of the electorate). In 2004, George W. Bush received 60% of the Male vote in NC (41% of the electorate).

Among Women

• Barack Obama 52%
• Rick Santorum 39%

• Barack Obama 51% [53%] (50%) {54%} [51%] (52%) {49%} [45%] (50%) {44%} [46%] (50%) {51%} [53%] (50%)
• Mitt Romney 38% [38%] (40%) {37%} [39%] (38%) {41%} [40%] (39%) {46%} [41%] (39%) {42%} [39%] (37%)

• Barack Obama 55% [55%] (55%) {57%} [54%] [51%] (55%) {49%} [50%] (51%) {53%} [52%] (53%)
• Newt Gingrich 37% [38%] (38%) {34%} [36%] [40%] (38%) {46%} [39%] (40%) {41%} [39%] (37%)

• Barack Obama 53% [53%] (53%) {55%}
• Ron Paul 32% [34%] (35%) {35%}

• Barack Obama 55% [56%] (54%) {56%} [52%] (54%)
• Rick Perry 34% [32%] (38%) {37%} [40%] (32%)

Note: In 2008, John McCain received 44% of the Female vote in North Carolina (54% of the electorate). In 2004, George W. Bush received 54% of the Female vote in NC (59% of the electorate).
 
If the candidates for President this year were Democrat Barack Obama, Republican Mitt Romney, and Libertarian Gary Johnson, who would you vote for?

• Barack Obama 45%
• Mitt Romney 41%
• Gary Johnson 8%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Rick Santorum 35% / 42% {-7%}
• Mitt Romney 34% [32%] (36%) {32%} [28%] (32%) {32%} [35%] (30%) {31%} [32%] (37%) {33%} [34%] (33%) / 48% [51%] (47%) {49%} [52%] (46%) {47%} [44%] (43%) {44%} [41%] (39%) {36%} [39%] (38%) {-14%}
• Newt Gingrich 28% [41%] (35%) {29%} [22%] [23%] (28%) {31%} [29%] (30%) {34%} [35%] (34%) / 57% [49%] (53%) {58%} [61%] [58%] (54%) {50%} [48%] (48%) {45%} [47%] (43%) {-29%}  
• Ron Paul 21% [26%] (22%) {24%} / 58% [54%] (54%) {52%} {-37%}
• Rick Perry 18% [19%] (23%) {24%} [34%] (22%) / 63% [65%] (57%) {56%} [43%] (36%) {-45%}

Among Independents

• Rick Santorum 39% / 41% {-2%}
• Mitt Romney 35% [33%] (33%) {37%} [35%] (27%) {30%} [35%] (36%) {34%} [30%] (45%) {35%} [30%] (46%) / 44% [50%] (48%) {46%} [50%] (48%) {49%} [45%] (45%) {43%} [44%] (36%) {43%} [39%] (32%) {-9%}
• Ron Paul 29% [34%] (44%) {31%} / 48% [44%] (33%) {42%} {-19%} 
  
• Newt Gingrich 29% [41%] (35%) {26%} [26%] [19%] (28%) {24%} [17%] (29%) {34%} [34%] (33%) / 60% [43%] (49%) {56%} [63%] [64%] (57%) {56%} [58%] (54%) {51%} [43%] (41%) {-31%}  
• Rick Perry 21% [14%] (19%) {17%} [44%] (23%) / 60% [67%] (54%) {60%} [34%] (38%) {-39%}

Among Men

• Rick Santorum 42% / 43% {-1%}
• Mitt Romney 38% [33%] (39%) {35%} [33%] (36%) {37%} [34%] (33%) {31%} [33%] (45%) {37%} [36%] (39%) / 48% [55%] (46%) {48%} [55%] (48%) {52%} [53%] (47%) {50%} [43%] (40%) {36%} [47%] (39%) {-10%} 
• Newt Gingrich 34% [50%] (44%) {34%} [28%] [19%] (30%) {33%} [36%] (37%) {38%} [40%] (43%) / 55% [45%] (49%) {57%} [60%] [67%] (56%) {55%} [43%] (50%) {46%} [50%] (41%) {-21%}
• Ron Paul 28% [29%] (28%) {29%} / 57% [56%] (56%) {50%} {-29%} 
• Rick Perry 25% [22%] (27%) {29%} [39%] (26%) / 64% [66%] (59%) {55%} [46%] (40%) {-39%}

Among Women

• Rick Santorum 28% / 42% {-14%}
• Mitt Romney 30% [32%] (33%) {28%} [23%] (29%) {28%} [36%] (28%) {31%} [31%] (29%) {31%} [32%] (29%) / 48% [48%] (47%) {50%} [49%] (44%) {42%} [36%] (40%) {38%} [40%] (38%) {36%} [32%] (38%) {-18%}
• Newt Gingrich 23% [32%] (27%) {25%} [17%] [27%] (25%) {29%} [23%] (24%) {31%} [31%] (26%) / 58% [52%] (56%) {59%} [62%] [51%] (53%) {45%} [52%] (46%) {44%} [45%] (45%) {-35%} 
• Ron Paul 15% [24%] (17%) {19%} / 58% [53%] (52%) {55%} {-43%} 
• Rick Perry 12% [16%] (19%) {20%} [30%] (18%) / 62% [63%] (55%) {56%} [40%] (32%) {-50%}

Do you approve or disapprove of President Barack Obama’s job performance?

• Approve 47% [47%] (45%) {44%} [43%] (46%) {45%} [49%] (50%) {49%} [48%] (47%) {49%} [46%] (45%)
• Disapprove 49% [50%] (50%) {53%} [53%] (50%) {51%} [47%] (46%) {48%} [46%] (48%) {47%} [49%] (51%)

Survey of 780 North Carolina voters was conducted January 5-8, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 3.5 percentage points. Party ID breakdown: 48% [47%] (46%) {48%} [46%] (48%) {46%} [47%] (48%) {46%} [45%] (45%) {47%} [46%] (49%) Democrat; 34% [35%] (35%) {36%} [34%] (35%) {33%} [36%] (36%) {36%} [38%] (37%) {36%} [34%] (35%) Republican; 18% [18%] (19%) {16%} [19%] (18%) {21%} [16%] (16%) {18%} [17%] (18%) {18%} [21%] (17%) Independent/Other.  Political ideology: 30% [30%] (31%) {28%} [28%] (28%) {30%} [31%] (31%) {32%} [28%] Moderate; 27% [24%] (27%) {25%} [22%] (30%) {25%} [27%] (26%) {22%} [23%] Somewhat conservative; 18% [19%] (17%) {22%} [22%] (19%) {20%} [17%] (18%) {22%} [24%] Very conservative; 16% [17%] (17%) {16%} [16%] (16%) {16%} [17%] (15%) {14%} [16%] Somewhat liberal; 10% [9%] (8%) {10%} [11%] (7%) {9%} [9%] (10%) {9%} [9%] Very liberal.  Results from the poll conducted December 1-4, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted October 27-31, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted September 30 - October 3, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 1-4, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 4-7, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted July 7-10, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted June 8-11, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 12-15, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted April 14-17, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 17-20, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 16-21, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted January 20-23, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 17-19, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 19-21, 2010 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Reuters/Ipsos 2012 Presidential Survey

Reuters/Ipsos 2012 Presidential Poll

• Barack Obama 48% (48%) {43%} [49%] (48%)
• Mitt Romney 43% (40%) {44%} [43%] (40%)

• Barack Obama 48%
• Ron Paul 41%

• Barack Obama 51%
• Rick Santorum 40%

• Barack Obama 53% (51%)
• Newt Gingrich 38% (38%)

Survey of 896 registered voters was conducted January 5-9, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 3.2 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted December 8-12, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted October 31 - November 3, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 8-12, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 5-9, 2011 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Reuters/Ipsos 2012 Republican Nomination Survey

Reuters/Ipsos 2012 GOP Nomination Poll

• Mitt Romney 29% {18%} [21%] (18%)
• Newt Gingrich 17% {25%} [7%] (4%) 
• Ron Paul 17% {12%} [12%] (8%)
• Rick Santorum 12% {4%} 
• Rick Perry 6% {12%} [9%] (5%)
• Jon Huntsman 4% {4%} [2%] (2%)
• None/Other 4% {6%} [9%] (11%)
• Don't know/Not sure 9% {10%} [13%] (18%)

Among Republicans Only

• Mitt Romney 30% {18%} [23%] (20%)
• Newt Gingrich 20% {28%} [7%] (6%) 
• Ron Paul 16% {12%} [13%] (7%)
• Rick Santorum 13% {4%} 
• Rick Perry 7% {12%} [10%] (6%) 
• Jon Huntsman 3% {5%} [2%] (2%)
• None/Other 2% {4%} [7%] (8%)
• Don't know/Not sure 7% {8%} [13%] (13%)

Regardless of your personal preference, if the Republican Presidential Primaries came down to these two candidates, for which one would you vote?

• Mitt Romney 54%
• Rick Santorum 35%

Among Republicans Only

• Mitt Romney 56%
• Rick Santorum 36%

Survey of 500 registered Republicans and GOP-leaning independent voters, was conducted January 5-9, 2012.  The margin of error is +/- 4.7 percentage points among Republicans.  Results from the poll conducted December 8-12, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted October 6-10, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted June 3-6, 2011 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Gallup 2012 Republican Nomination Daily Tracking Survey

Gallup 2012 GOP Nomination Daily Tracking Poll

• Mitt Romney 30% [30%] (31%) {29%} [27%] (27%) {26%} [24%] (26%) {27%} [25%] (24%) {23%} [22%] (21%) {23%} [23%] (24%) {24%} [24%] (24%) {23%} [22%] (23%) {23%} [23%] (23%) {25%} [23%] (22%)
• Newt Gingrich 18% [17%] (16%) {17%} [19%] (19%) {22%} [23%] (24%) {23%} [25%] (25%) {26%} [26%] (27%) {25%} [25%] (26%) {28%} [28%] (29%) {31%} [31%] (33%) {33%} [35%] (37%) {34%} [36%] (37%)
• Rick Santorum 17% [18%] (18%) {16%} [15%] (11%) {8%} [6%] (5%) {4%} [4%] (3%) {3%} [3%] (4%) {4%} [4%] (4%) {4%} [4%] (4%) {4%} [4%] (3%) {2%} [3%] (2%) {2%} [3%] (3%)   
• Ron Paul 12% [13%] (13%) {12%} [12%] (13%) {13%} [13%] (11%) {11%} [11%] (11%) {12%} [13%] (12%) {12%} [12%] (11%) {10%} [10%] (10%) {9%} [8%] (8%) {9%} [9%] (9%) {10%} [9%] (8%)
• Rick Perry 5% [6%] (6%) {6%} [6%] (6%) {6%} [7%] (7%) {8%} [8%] (8%) {8%} [8%] (7%) {8%} [8%] (7%) {6%} [6%] (5%) {6%} [7%] (6%) {6%} [6%] (6%) {5%} [6%] (7%)
• Jon Huntsman 1% [1%] (1%) {1%} [2%] (2%) {2%} [2%] (2%) {2%} [1%] (2%) {1%} [1%] (1%) {2%} [2%] (2%) {2%} [2%] (2%) {2%} [2%] (2%) {2%} [2%] (1%) {1%} [1%] (1%)

Survey of at least 1,000 registered Republicans and Republican-leaning independents was conducted January 5-9, 2012.  The margin of error is ± 3 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted January 4-8, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 3-7, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted January 2-6, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 29, 2011 - January 5, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 28, 2011 - January 4, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted December 27, 2011 - January 3, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 26, 2011 - January 2, 2012 are in Results from the poll conducted December 23-29, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted December 22-28, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 21-27, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 20-26, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted December 19-23, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 18-22, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 17-21, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted December 15-20, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 14-19, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 13-18, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted December 12-17, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 11-16, 2011 are in Results from the poll conducted December 10-14, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted December 9-13, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 8-12, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted December 7-11, 2011 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted December 6-10, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 5-9, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 4-8, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted December 3-7, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 2-6, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 1-5, 2011 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Rasmussen 2012 Presidential Survey

Rasmussen 2012 Presidential Poll

• Barack Obama 46% [49%] (47%) {48%} [49%] (45%) {43%} [46%] (50%) {44%} [49%] (48%) {49%} [47%]
• Newt Gingrich 38% [39%] (37%) {37%} [39%] (40%) {45%} [40%] (38%) {38%} [34%] (30%) {37%} [39%]

Survey of 1,000 likely voters was conducted January 7-8, 2012.  The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted January 2, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 26, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted December 18-19, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 12-13, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 6-7, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted November 28-29, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 19-20, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 11-12, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted November 3-4, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted October 12-13, 2011are in square brackets.  Results from the polls conducted June 24-25, 2011 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted March 18-19, 2011 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted January 15-16, 2011 are in square brackets.

Inside the numbers:

Male voters favor Obama by a slight 43% to 41% margin, while females give the president a wider 48% to 36% advantage.

Voters not affiliated with either major political party prefer Obama 43% to 32%.

Gingrich is heavily favored by Tea Party voters, while Obama leads among those not affiliated with the movement.

The president has the support of 52% of union members and also leads Gingrich 45% to 39% among those who are not in a union.

Newt Gingrich Discusses New Attack Ads

Newt Gingrich on Romney's Role at Bain, Primaries

Newt Gingrich 2012 Ad: "Taxman"

Gingrich, Santorum and Huntsman on Morning Joe

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

Poll Watch: Suffolk University/7NEWS New Hampshire 2012 Republican Primary Survey

Suffolk University/7NEWS New Hampshire 2012 GOP Primary Poll

• Mitt Romney 37% [33%] (35%) {39%} [40%] (41%) {41%} [38%] (41%) {41%} [36%] (35%)
• Ron Paul 18% [20%] (20%) {17%} [17%] (18%) {15%} [8%] (14%) {14%} [8%] (8%)
• Jon Huntsman 16% [13%] (11%) {9%} [8%] (7%) {9%} [13%] (9%) {10%} [4%] (0%)
• Rick Santorum 11% [10%] (8%) {9%} [11%] (8%) {3%} [2%] (3%) {1%} [1%] (2%) 
• Newt Gingrich 9% [11%] (9%) {10%} [9%] (7%) {11%} [20%] (14%) {4%} [2%] (3%)
• Buddy Roemer 1% [2%] (1%) {0%} [0%] (1%) {1%} [2%] (1%) {1%} [0%] (0%)   
• Rick Perry 1% [1%] (1%) {1%} [1%] (0%) {2%} [1%] (2%) {8%} [2%]
• Fred Karger 0% [0%] (0%) {0%} [0%] (0%) {0%} [0%] (1%) {0%} [0%] (0%)
• Undecided 7% [12%] (15%) {15%} [15%] (17%) {16%} [11%] (9%) {11%} [21%] (13%)

How likely are you to change your mind about your choice before the January Primary - would you say it's very likely you'll change your mind, somewhat likely you'll change your mind, or unlikely you'll change your mind?

• Very likely I'll change my mind 2% [2%] (5%) {4%} [2%] (3%) {7%} [7%] (9%)
• Somewhat likely I'll change my mind 16% [22%] (25%) {22%} [30%] (33%) {33%} [44%] (43%)
• Unlikely I'll change my mind 68% [69%] (68%) {72%} [67%] (63%) {50%} [45%] (42%)

Survey of 500 likely New Hampshire GOP primary voters was conducted January 8-9, 2012.  Party ID: 58% [62%] (58%) {56%} [55%] (51%) {58%} Republican; 38% [35%] (39%) {40%} [42%] (46%) {38%} Independent; 2% [1%] (1%) {1%} [2%] (2%) {1%} Other.  Ideology: 49% [48%] (46%) {50%} [53%] (49%) {49%} Conservative; 38% [38%] (38%) {34%} [33%] (39%) {34%} Moderate; Liberal 9% [10%] (10%) {9%} [7%] (6%) {14%}. Results from the poll conducted January 7-8, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 6-7, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted January 5-6, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 4-5, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 3-4, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted December 30-31, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 10-13, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 16-20, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted September 18-20, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted June 25-27, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 30 - May 2, 2011 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Rasmussen New Hampshire 2012 Republican Primary Survey

Rasmussen New Hampshire 2012 GOP Primary Poll

• Mitt Romney 37% [42%] (33%) {34%} [41%] (39%)
• Ron Paul 17% [18%] (18%) {14%} [11%] (13%)
• Jon Huntsman 15% [12%] (10%) {11%} [7%] (7%)
• Rick Santorum 13% [13%] (3%) {1%} [1%] (2%)
• Newt Gingrich 12% [8%] (22%) {24%} [8%] (4%)  
• Rick Perry 1% [1%] (3%) {2%} [4%] (18%) 
• Some other candidate 1% [1%]
• Undecided 3% [6%]

Survey of 722 likely Republican primary voters was conducted January 8, 2012. The margin of error is ± 4 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted January 5, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 12, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted November 28, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted October 25, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 21, 2011 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

A Romney win in New Hampshire still seems highly likely at this point even with 28% of primary voters saying they could change their minds. Sixty-nine percent (69%) are certain at this time whom they will vote for. Seventy-six percent (76%) of Romney supporters are sure how they’ll vote, as are 80% of Paul’s voters and 70% of those who back Gingrich. Roughly 60% of the supporters of the other candidates are certain of their vote.

There’s virtually a three-way tie at the top among Tea Party voters in New Hampshire, with Gingrich at 25%, Romney at 24% and Santorum at 22%. Among those who are not members of the grass roots movement, Romney has the support of a plurality (40%) of voters.

Fifty-one percent (51%) here think Romney would be the strongest foe for Obama. Gingrich is a distant second with 15% support. Paul is seen as the weakest GOP candidate to run against the president, a view shared by 33% of Granite State Republicans, while 22% think Perry would be the weakest opponent.

Regardless of whom they want to win the primary, 70% expect Romney to emerge victorious. Seventy-one percent (71%) think it’s at least somewhat likely the Republican nominee will win in November, with 46% who say it’s Very Likely.

The bad news for Republicans is that 17% of these likely primary voters say they will vote for Obama if their favorite candidate doesn’t win, and another eight percent (8%) will support a third party candidate. Seventy percent (70%) will support the Republican no matter who he is. Most of Ron Paul’s supporters say they will vote either for Obama or a third party if their candidate doesn’t win.

Romney remains the best-liked candidate among likely GOP primary voters in New Hampshire, with favorables of 66%. Huntsman and Santorum are the only other candidates with higher favorables than unfavorables, earning positives of 54% and 51% respectively. Fifty-two percent (52%) have unfavorable opinions of both Paul and Gingrich, while 66% say the same of Perry.

Just 19% of these primary voters at least somewhat approve of the job Obama is doing as president, with eight percent (8%) who Strongly Approve.

Poll Watch: CBS News 2012 Presidential Survey

CBS News 2012 Presidential Survey

• Mitt Romney 47%
• Barack Obama 45%

• Barack Obama 46%
• Ron Paul 45%

• Barack Obama 47%
• Rick Santorum 43%

• Barack Obama 49%
• Rick Perry 42%

• Barack Obama 48%
• Jon Huntsman 41%

• Barack Obama 49%
• Newt Gingrich 41%

Survey of 1,247 registered voters was conducted January 4-8, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points.

Poll Watch: SurveyUSA Florida 2012 Republican Primary Survey

SurveyUSA Florida 2012 GOP Primary Poll

• Mitt Romney 36% [23%] (27%)
• Newt Gingrich 25% [45%] (6%)
• Rick Santorum 17% [2%] (2%)
• Ron Paul 7% [4%] (5%)
• Other 5% [3%] (4%)
• Undecided 10% [9%] (12%)

Favorable / Unfavorable

• Mitt Romney 57% [51%] (55%) / 18% [21%] (19%) {+39%}
• Newt Gingrich 51% [65%] / 21% [11%] {+30%}
• Rick Santorum 47% / 18% {+29%}
• Ron Paul 18% [22%] / 46% [33%] {-28%}

Survey of 500 likely Republican primary voters was conducted January 8, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points. Political ideology: 46% [44%] (42%) Conservative; 28% [33%] (33%) Very conservative; 22% [21%] (20%) Moderate.  Results from the poll conducted December 5-6, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 24-27, 2011 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: ARG New Hampshire 2012 Republican Primary Survey

ARG New Hampshire 2012 GOP Primary Poll

• Mitt Romney 37% {40%} [35%] (33%) {30%} [29%] (32%)
• Jon Huntsman 18% {17%} [13%] (8%) {10%} [0%] (0%)
• Ron Paul 17% {16%} [21%] (12%) {12%} [4%] (8%)
• Rick Santorum 11% {12%} [1%] (1%) {2%} [2%] (0%)
• Newt Gingrich 10% {8%} [16%] (22%) {4%} [7%] (8%)
• Rick Perry 1% {1%} [2%] (2%) {13%} [2%]
• Other 2% {2%}
• Undecided 4% {4%} [8%] (9%) {12%} [18%] (8%)

Among Republicans

• Mitt Romney 46% {46%} [44%] (36%) {35%} [33%] (37%)
• Ron Paul 15% {14%} [15%] (8%) {10%} [6%] (5%)
• Jon Huntsman 13% {12%} [5%] (5%) {7%} [0%] (0%)
• Newt Gingrich 10% {10%} [20%] (25%) {6%} [7%] (10%)
• Rick Santorum 10% {10%} [2%] (1%) {2%} [3%] (0%)
• Rick Perry 1% {2%} [3%] (3%) {13%} [2%]
• Other 2% {2%}
• Undecided 3% {4%} [8%] (9%) {10%} [15%] (6%)

Among GOP-Leaning Independents

• Jon Huntsman 25% {24%} [25%] (14%) {17%} [0%] (0%) 
  
• Mitt Romney 25% {30%} [22%] (26%) {19%} [20%] (20%)
• Ron Paul 20% {20%} [30%] (19%) {15%} [10%] (15%)
• Rick Santorum 13% {15%} [0%] (0%) {3%} [0%] (0%)
• Newt Gingrich 10% {5%} [10%] (19%) {2%} [6%] (3%)
• Rick Perry 1% {0%} [0%] (1%) {14%} [2%] 
• Other 1% {1%}
• Undecided 5% {5%} [8%] (9%) {13%} [15%] (7%)

Survey of 600 likely Republican primary voters (334 Republicans and 266 independents) was conducted January 8-9, 2012. The margin of error is ± 4 percentage points. Party ID breakdown: 56% {60%} [60%] (65%) {67%} [70%] Republican; 44% {40%} [40%] (35%) {33%} [30%] Independent.  Results from the poll conducted January 6-7, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 11-14, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 16-20, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted September 16-21, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 9-13, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 16-21, 2011 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: FDU PublicMind New Jersey Survey on Governor Chris Christie

FDU PublicMind New Jersey Survey on Governor Chris Christie

Do you approve or disapprove of way Chris Christie is handling his job as governor?

• Approve 53% (51%) [54%] {44%} (51%) [51%] {53%}
• Disapprove 37% (36%) [36%] {44%} (41%) [39%] {36%}

Among Republicans

• Approve 90% (81%) [81%] {75%} (83%) [82%] {80%}
• Disapprove 7% (11%) [16%] {16%} (14%) [15%] {14%}

Among Independents

• Approve 52% (50%) [64%] {47%} (49%) [54%] {50%}
• Disapprove 36% (35%) [26%] {32%} (36%) [28%] {32%}

Among Democrats

• Approve 26% (27%) [31%] {20%} (27%) [27%] {33%}
• Disapprove 62% (60%) [54%] {69%} (63%) [61%] {56%}

Among Men

• Approve 63% (58%) [61%] {52%} (58%) [61%] {59%}
• Disapprove 30% (31%) [31%] {36%} (34%) [32%] {32%}

Among Women

• Approve 42% (45%) [46%] {36%} (45%) [41%] {47%}
• Disapprove 45% (41%) [42%] {53%} (47%) [47%] {40%}

Survey of 800 registered voters was conducted January 2-8, 2012.  The margin of error is +/- 3.5 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted October 17-23, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted September 19-25, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 16-22, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 29 - April 4, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted February 7-13, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 3-9, 2011 are in curly brackets.

Poll Watch: Pew Research 2012 Republican Nomination Survey

Pew Research 2012 GOP Nomination Poll

• Mitt Romney 27% [21%] (23%) {22%} [21%] (21%)
• Rick Santorum 16% [3%] (2%) {2%} [1%] (2%) 
• Newt Gingrich 16% [33%] (16%) {8%} [3%] (11%)
• Ron Paul 12% [8%] (8%) {12%} [9%] (8%)
• Rick Perry 6% [4%] (8%) {17%} [12%]
• Jon Huntsman 2% [3%] (1%) {1%} [2%]

Second Choice

• Mitt Romney 19% (19%) [14%]
• Newt Gingrich 15% (19%) [4%]
• Rick Santorum 14% (3%) [2%]
• Rick Perry 9% (8%) [7%]
• Ron Paul 7% (3%) [4%]
• Jon Huntsman 4% (2%) [3%]

Survey of 549 registered Republicans and Republican-leaning Independents was conducted January 4-8, 2012.  The margin of error is +/- 5.5 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted December 7-11, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 9-14, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted September 22 - October 4, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 20-24, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 8-14, 2011 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Gallup 2012 Republican Nomination Daily Tracking Survey

Gallup 2012 GOP Nomination Daily Tracking Poll

• Mitt Romney 30% (31%) {29%} [27%] (27%) {26%} [24%] (26%) {27%} [25%] (24%) {23%} [22%] (21%) {23%} [23%] (24%) {24%} [24%] (24%) {23%} [22%] (23%) {23%} [23%] (23%) {25%} [23%] (22%)
• Rick Santorum 18% (18%) {16%} [15%] (11%) {8%} [6%] (5%) {4%} [4%] (3%) {3%} [3%] (4%) {4%} [4%] (4%) {4%} [4%] (4%) {4%} [4%] (3%) {2%} [3%] (2%) {2%} [3%] (3%)   
• Newt Gingrich 17% (16%) {17%} [19%] (19%) {22%} [23%] (24%) {23%} [25%] (25%) {26%} [26%] (27%) {25%} [25%] (26%) {28%} [28%] (29%) {31%} [31%] (33%) {33%} [35%] (37%) {34%} [36%] (37%)
• Ron Paul 13% (13%) {12%} [12%] (13%) {13%} [13%] (11%) {11%} [11%] (11%) {12%} [13%] (12%) {12%} [12%] (11%) {10%} [10%] (10%) {9%} [8%] (8%) {9%} [9%] (9%) {10%} [9%] (8%)
• Rick Perry 6% (6%) {6%} [6%] (6%) {6%} [7%] (7%) {8%} [8%] (8%) {8%} [8%] (7%) {8%} [8%] (7%) {6%} [6%] (5%) {6%} [7%] (6%) {6%} [6%] (6%) {5%} [6%] (7%)
• Jon Huntsman 1% (1%) {1%} [2%] (2%) {2%} [2%] (2%) {2%} [1%] (2%) {1%} [1%] (1%) {2%} [2%] (2%) {2%} [2%] (2%) {2%} [2%] (2%) {2%} [2%] (1%) {1%} [1%] (1%)

Survey of at least 1,000 registered Republicans and Republican-leaning independents was conducted January 4-8, 2012.  The margin of error is ± 3 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted January 3-7, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted January 2-6, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 29, 2011 - January 5, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 28, 2011 - January 4, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted December 27, 2011 - January 3, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 26, 2011 - January 2, 2012 are in Results from the poll conducted December 23-29, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted December 22-28, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 21-27, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 20-26, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted December 19-23, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 18-22, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 17-21, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted December 15-20, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 14-19, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 13-18, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted December 12-17, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 11-16, 2011 are in Results from the poll conducted December 10-14, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted December 9-13, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 8-12, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted December 7-11, 2011 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted December 6-10, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 5-9, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 4-8, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted December 3-7, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 2-6, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 1-5, 2011 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Rasmussen 2012 Presidential Survey

Rasmussen 2012 Presidential Poll

• Barack Obama 46% (47%) {45%} [45%]
• Rick Santorum 39% (37%) {34%} [31%]

Survey of 1,000 likely voters was conducted January 5-6, 2012.  The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted December 16-17, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted October 2-3, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 10-11, 2011 are in square brackets.  

Inside the numbers:

Santorum leads Obama among male voters 46% to 40%, while the president holds a 50% to 32% advantage among female voters.

Voters under the age of 40 favor Obama, while Santorum earns his strongest support from older voters.

Among voters not affiliated with either political party, Obama leads Santorum 43% to 35%.

Eighty-five percent (85%) of Tea Party members favor Santorum, while union members support Obama by a modest 49% to 40% margin. Both non-Tea Partiers and non-union members prefer the incumbent.

Poll Watch: Rasmussen 2012 Presidential Survey

Rasmussen 2012 Presidential Poll

I’m now going to read you a list of Republican Presidential candidates. For each, if they were to win the nomination, please tell me how likely it is that candidate will beat Barack Obama in the general election this November?

Mitt Romney

• Very likely 26%
• Somewhat likely 27%
• Not too likely 27%
• Not at all likely 11%

Rick Santorum

• Very likely 14%
• Somewhat likely 27%
• Not too likely 27%
• Not at all likely 23%

Newt Gingrich

• Very likely 13%
• Somewhat likely 21%
• Not too likely 31%
• Not at all likely 29%

Ron Paul

• Very likely 8%
• Somewhat likely 19%
• Not too likely 34%
• Not at all likely 33%

Jon Huntsman

• Very likely 5%
• Somewhat likely 15%
• Not too likely 37%
• Not at all likely 34%

Survey of 1,000 likely voters was conducted January 5-6, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points.

Inside the numbers:

Perhaps not surprisingly, Republicans have more confidence in their field of candidates than Democrats and voters not affiliated with either of the major parties do. Most GOP voters think Romney (70%), Santorum (64%) and Gingrich (60%) are likely to defeat the president. But two-out-of-three Republicans say Huntsman and Paul are not likely to win.

Fifty percent (50%) of unaffiliated voters believe Romney is likely to win in November, but a plurality or majority of these voters feel the other GOP contenders are unlikely to do so.

Seventy-seven percent (77%) of Tea Party voters think a Romney victory is likely, and 72% and 67% say the same of Santorum and Gingrich respectively. A plurality (49%) of non-members see Romney as the likely winner, but the majority of these voters thinks victory by any of the other four Republican candidates is unlikely.

Poll Watch: Suffolk University/7NEWS New Hampshire 2012 Republican Primary Survey

Suffolk University/7NEWS New Hampshire 2012 GOP Primary Poll

• Mitt Romney 33% (35%) {39%} [40%] (41%) {41%} [38%] (41%) {41%} [36%] (35%)
• Ron Paul 20% (20%) {17%} [17%] (18%) {15%} [8%] (14%) {14%} [8%] (8%)
• Jon Huntsman 13% (11%) {9%} [8%] (7%) {9%} [13%] (9%) {10%} [4%] (0%)
• Newt Gingrich 11% (9%) {10%} [9%] (7%) {11%} [20%] (14%) {4%} [2%] (3%)
• Rick Santorum 10% (8%) {9%} [11%] (8%) {3%} [2%] (3%) {1%} [1%] (2%)  
• Buddy Roemer 2% (1%) {0%} [0%] (1%) {1%} [2%] (1%) {1%} [0%] (0%)   
• Rick Perry 1% (1%) {1%} [1%] (0%) {2%} [1%] (2%) {8%} [2%]
• Fred Karger 0% (0%) {0%} [0%] (0%) {0%} [0%] (1%) {0%} [0%] (0%)
• Undecided 12% (15%) {15%} [15%] (17%) {16%} [11%] (9%) {11%} [21%] (13%)

How likely are you to change your mind about your choice before the January Primary - would you say it's very likely you'll change your mind, somewhat likely you'll change your mind, or unlikely you'll change your mind?

• Very likely I'll change my mind 2% (5%) {4%} [2%] (3%) {7%} [7%] (9%)
• Somewhat likely I'll change my mind 22% (25%) {22%} [30%] (33%) {33%} [44%] (43%)
• Unlikely I'll change my mind 69% (68%) {72%} [67%] (63%) {50%} [45%] (42%)

Survey of 500 likely New Hampshire GOP primary voters was conducted January 7-8, 2012.  Party ID: 62% (58%) {56%} [55%] (51%) {58%} Republican; 35% (39%) {40%} [42%] (46%) {38%} Independent; 1% (1%) {1%} [2%] (2%) {1%} Other.  Ideology: (46%) {50%} [53%] (49%) {49%} Conservative; (38%) {34%} [33%] (39%) {34%} Moderate; Liberal (10%) {9%} [7%] (6%) {14%}. Results from the poll conducted January 6-7, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted January 5-6, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 4-5, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 3-4, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted December 30-31, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 10-13, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 16-20, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted September 18-20, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted June 25-27, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 30 - May 2, 2011 are in parentheses.

TODAY: Interview with Newt Gingrich

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

Poll Watch: Quinnipiac Florida 2012 Republican Primary Survey

Quinnipiac Florida 2012 GOP Primary Poll

• Mitt Romney 36% (22%) [21%] {22%} (24%) 
• Newt Gingrich 24% (35%) [17%] {8%} (5%) 
• Rick Santorum 16% (2%) [1%] {2%} (1%)
• Ron Paul 10% (8%) [3%] {6%} (10%)
• Rick Perry 5% (4%) [5%] {31%} (14%)
• Jon Huntsman 2% (2%) [1%] {2%} (1%)
• Don't know 7% (12%) [16%] {13%} (19%)

Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?

• Mind made up 44%
• Might change 54%

Among Newt Gingrich voters

• Mind made up 46%
• Might change 53%

Among Mitt Romney voters

• Mind made up 44%
• Might change 56%

Among Rick Santorum voters

• Mind made up 41%
• Might change 57%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Mitt Romney 73% / 14% {+59%}
• Rick Santorum 59% / 8% {+51%}
• Newt Gingrich 59% / 29% {+30%}
• Ron Paul 34% / 47% {-13%}

Survey of 560 likely Republican primary voters was conducted January 4-8, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4.1 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted November 28 - December 5, 2011 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted October 31 - November 7, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 14-19, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 27 - August 2, 2011 are in parentheses. General election results from the poll conducted August 1-2, 2011 are in parentheses.  General election results from the poll conducted July 27-31, 2011 are in square brackets.

Poll Watch: CBS News 2012 Republican Nomination Survey

CBS News 2012 GOP Nomination Poll

• Mitt Romney 19% [20%] {15%} (21%) [17%] {16%} 
• Newt Gingrich 15% [20%] {15%} (10%) [8%] {7%} 
• Rick Santorum 14% [3%] {2%} (1%) [3%] {1%}
• Ron Paul 10% [10%] {5%} (8%) [7%] {5%}
• Rick Perry 6% [6%] {8%} (6%) [12%] {23%}
• Jon Huntsman 4% [1%] {1%} (1%) [2%] {1%}
• Someone else 19% [19%] {14%} (12%) [10%] {11%}
• Undecided/Don't know 13% [17%] {17%} (14%) [18%] {22%}

Regardless of how you intend to vote in 2012, which one of these candidates do you think has the best chance of beating Barack Obama in the general election in November 2012?

• Mitt Romney 49% [37%] {40%}
• Newt Gingrich 13% [31%] {6%}
• Rick Santorum 8% [2%] {2%}
• Rick Perry 5% [5%] {6%}
• Ron Paul 4% [8%] {2%}
• Jon Huntsman 1% [2%] {1%}

Survey of 440 Republican primary voters was conducted January 4-8, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 5 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted December 14-18, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 6-10, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted October 19-24, 2011 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted September 28 - October 2, 2011 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 10-15, 2011 are in curly brackets.

Inside the numbers:

Each of the candidates receives their support from different factions of the Republican Party. Romney's core backing comes primarily from moderates, women and non-Tea Party supporters, while Santorum's support comes from evangelicals and voters who are very conservative, the poll shows.

Gingrich seems to be losing some of his traction with Tea Party-supporters to Santorum - a social-values conservative from Pennsylvania.

While Santorum and Gingrich are now tied among Republican primary voters who support the Tea Party movement, Gingrich led this group by 16 points as recently as December. White evangelicals now seem to firmly back Santorum in this race.

However, while Santorum leads among Republican voters who identify themselves as very conservative, Gingrich is ahead among those who say they are only somewhat conservative.

Romney and Santorum bring different perceived strengths to the race as well. Romney is viewed as most electable (and most likely to be the eventual nominee), while Santorum is seen as the candidate who best represents these voters' values - up 17 points since November. Romney is right behind him on this measure.

After his narrow victory in Iowa, 55 percent of Republican primary voters now expect Romney to eventually become the Republican nominee for president - far ahead of any other candidate. Registered voters nationwide agree.

It is important to note, however, that nationally, the race for the Republican nomination remains extremely fluid. Most voters have not completely settled on their candidate.

Even among Republican voters who do pick a candidate, seven in 10 say it's still too early to say whether their mind is really made up.

Poll Watch: UNH/WMUR New Hampshire 2012 Republican Primary Survey

UNH/WMUR New Hampshire 2012 GOP Primary Poll

• Mitt Romney 41% {44%} [39%] (42%) {37%} [35%] (41%) {33%} [36%] (40%)
• Ron Paul 17% {20%} [17%] (12%) {9%} [7%] (6%) {9%} [6%] (5%)
• Jon Huntsman 11% {7%} [11%] (8%) {8%} [2%] (3%) {4%} [0%]
• Rick Santorum 11% {8%} [3%] (1%) {2%} [1%] (3%) {2%} [0%] (1%)
• Newt Gingrich 8% {8%} [17%] (15%) {4%} [1%] (3%) {7%} [4%] (6%)
• Buddy Roemer 1% {1%} [0%] (1%) {0%} [0%] (0%) {0%}
• Rick Perry 1% {1%} [1%] (4%) {4%} [4%]

Survey of 461 likely Republican primary voters was conducted January 5-8, 2012.  The margin of error is +/- 4.6 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted January 2-5, 2012 are in Results from the poll conducted December 12-19, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 15-22, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted September 26 - October 6, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted June 21 - July 1, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted June 1-8, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted May 18-22, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 15- May 2, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 28 - February 7, 2011 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

Only 44 percent of New Hampshire voters polled said they had made up their minds, making a surprise finish a real possibility.

Twenty-seven percent said they were leaning toward a candidate and 29 percent said they are still trying to decide.

Seventy-eight percent of those surveyed believe Romney will win the primary, and 55 percent said he is the candidate with the best chance to beat President Barack Obama in the general election.

Poll Watch: PPP (D) New Hampshire 2012 Republican Primary Survey

PPP (D) New Hampshire 2012 GOP Primary Poll

• Mitt Romney 35% (36%) {35%} [28%] (40%)
• Ron Paul 18% (21%) {19%} [9%] (18%)
• Jon Huntsman 16% (12%) {13%} [7%] 
• Newt Gingrich 12% (13%) {17%} [4%] (17%)
• Rick Santorum 11% (3%) {3%}  
• Buddy Roemer 3% (3%)
• Rick Perry 1% (3%) {2%} [9%]
• Someone else/Undecided 4% (2%) {4%} [9%] (10%)

Among Republicans

• Mitt Romney 42% (42%) {41%}
• Newt Gingrich 14% (15%) {20%}
• Ron Paul 14% (19%) {14%}
• Rick Santorum 13% (4%) {3%}
• Jon Huntsman 11% (7%) {8%}
• Rick Perry 2% (3%) {2%}
• Buddy Roemer 1% (2%)

Among Independents

• Mitt Romney 26% (27%) {28%}
• Ron Paul 24% (25%) {26%}
• Jon Huntsman 23% (23%) {20%} 
• Rick Santorum 9% (2%) {2%}
• Newt Gingrich 8% (9%) {12%}
• Buddy Roemer 4% (5%)
• Rick Perry 0% (1%) {1%}
  

Would you say you are strongly committed to that candidate, or might you end up supporting someone else?

• Strongly committed to that candidate 76% (71%) {65%}
• Might end up supporting someone else 24% (29%) {35%}

Second Choice

• Rick Santorum 17% (8%) {5%}
• Mitt Romney 16% (18%) {16%}
• Newt Gingrich 15% (15%) {17%}
• Jon Huntsman 13% (13%) {10%} 
• Ron Paul 8% (8%) {13%}
• Rick Perry 5% (4%) {4%}
• Buddy Roemer 3% (2%)
• Someone else/Undecided 24% (25%) {22%}

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Mitt Romney 60% (63%) {63%} [60%] (68%) / 34% (32%) {30%} [29%] (19%) {+26%}
• Jon Huntsman 55% (55%) {47%} [25%] (8%) / 30% (27%) {34%} [26%] (13%) {+25%}
• Rick Santorum 49% (39%) {37%} [40%] (30%) / 42% (40%) {44%} [25%] (17%) {+7%} 
• Ron Paul 43% (47%) {53%} [53%] (53%) / 51% (46%) {38%} [30%] (21%) {-8%} 
• Newt Gingrich 38% (42%) {42%} [33%] (45%) / 54% (53%) {51%} [51%] (36%) {-16%}
• Rick Perry 24% (26%) {24%} [33%] / 65% (62%) {63%} [13%] {-41%}

What is more important to you when deciding who to vote for: a candidate’s ability to beat Barack Obama in the general election, or their positions on the issues?

• A candidate's ability to beat Obama 37% (36%) {35%}
• Their issue positions 55% (55%) {51%}

Who do you think has run the strongest campaign in New Hampshire?

• Mitt Romney 42% (40%) {35%}
• Jon Huntsman 16% (10%) {10%}
• Ron Paul 14% (15%) {12%}
• Newt Gingrich 5% (4%) {5%}
• Rick Santorum 4% (0%) {1%} 
• Buddy Roemer 2% (2%)
• Rick Perry 1% (1%) {0%}
• Someone else/Not sure 15% (26%) {34%}

Do you consider yourself to be a member of the Tea Party?

• Yes 20% (24%) {24%} [33%] (30%)
• No 71% (66%) {68%} [54%] (51%)

Are you an Evangelical Christian, or not?

• Are 21% (23%)
• Are not 79% (77%)

Do you think Mitt Romney is too liberal, too conservative, both, about right, or are you not sure?

• Too liberal 18%
• Too conservative 8%
• Both 18%
• About right 32%
• Not sure 24%

Survey of 1,771 likely New Hampshire Republican primary voters was conducted January 7-8, 2012.  The margin of error is +/- 2.3 percentage points.  Party ID breakdown: 59% (61%) {61%} [65%] (67%) Republican; 37% (34%) {34%} [33%] (32%) Independent/Other; 5% (4%) {5%} [2%] (2%) Democrat.  Political ideology: 37% (39%) {36%} [36%] (43%) Somewhat conservative; 27% (27%) {26%} [21%] (22%) Moderate; 26% (25%) {27%} [37%] (31%) Very conservative; 6% (4%) {7%} [4%] (3%) Somewhat liberal; 4% (5%) {4%} [2%] (1%) Very liberal.  Results from the poll conducted December 27-28, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted December 16-18, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted June 30 - July 5, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 31 - April 3, 2010 are in parentheses.

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