Poll Watch: Rasmussen Illinois Senatorial Survey

Rasmussen Illinois Senatorial Survey 

• Mark Kirk (R) 41% (40%) {40%} [39%] (37%) {40%} [40%] (41%) {39%} [42%] (46%) {41%} [41%] (46%) {39%} [41%] (41%)
• Alexi Giannoulias (D) 32% (40%) {40%} [36%] (34%) {42%} [40%] (43%) {40%} [39%] (38%) {37%} [44%] (40%) {42%} [41%] (38%)
• LeAlan Jones (G) 6% (7%) {7%} [6%] (12%)
• Other 7% (4%) {2%} [4%] (3%) {6%} [8%] (6%) [7%] (5%) {8%} [5%] (4%) {3%} [4%] (4%)
• Not sure 15% (9%) {11%} [15%] (14%) {12%} [12%] (10%) [12%] (12%) {13%} [10%] (10%) {15%} [13%] (17%)

With Leaners

• Mark Kirk (R) 44% (43%) {45%} [44%] (41%) {45%}
• Alexi Giannoulias (D) 40% (44%) {41%} [41%] (37%) {45%}
• LeAlan Jones (G) 4% (4%) {4%} [4%] (9%)
• Other 8% (7%) {5%} [4%] (5%) {3%}
• Not sure 5% (2%) {6%} [8%] (9%) {8%}

Among Voters Certain of Their Vote

• Mark Kirk (R) 56% (51%) {47%} [49%] (51%) {48%}
• Alexi Giannoulias (D) 40% (46%) {42%} [48%] (42%) {52%}
• LeAlan Jones (G) 4% (3%) {2%} [3%] (8%)
• Other 0% (0%) {5%} [0%]
• Not sure 0% (0%) {3%} [0%]

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Mark Kirk 50% (46%) {48%} [47%] (45%) {48%} [42%] (46%) {39%} [48%] (52%) {51%} [49%] (55%) {50%} / 42% (43%) {45%} [46%] (39%) {40%} [43%] (41%) {48%} [39%] (31%) {36%} [33%] (33%) {32%} {+8%}
• LeAlan Jones 34% (18%) {27%} [21%] (26%) / 28% (37%) {36%} [36%] (30%) {+6%}  
• Alexi Giannoulias 44% (39%) {42%} [43%] (42%) {41%} [39%] (37%) {43%} [39%] (42%) {42%} [44%] (46%) {48%} / 50% (50%) {50%} [49%] (44%) {47%} [47%] (48%) {46%} [46%] (47%) {44%} [43%] (39%) {36%} {-6%}

Would it be more accurate to describe Mark Kirk’s views as mainstream or extreme?

• Mainstream 50%
• Extreme 33%

Would it be more accurate to describe Alexi Giannoulias’ views as mainstream or extreme?

• Mainstream 40%
• Extreme 35%

How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President?

• Strongly approve 36% (34%) {36%} [34%] (38%) {35%} [35%] (37%) {29%} [39%] (37%) {38%}
• Somewhat approve 16% (18%) {16%} [18%] (15%) {18%} [19%] (18%) {25%} [17%] (24%) {20%}
• Somewhat disapprove 9% (7%) {8%} [10%] (8%) {7%} [9%] (7%) {9%} [7%] (7%) {6%}
• Strongly disapprove 39% (40%) {39%} [38%] (37%) {40%} [37%] (36%) {37%} [37%] (32%) {35%}

Survey of 750 likely voters was conducted October 18, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.  Party ID breakdown: 45% (46%) {46%} [46%] Democrat; 32% (32%) {32%} [30%] Republican; 23% (22%) {22%} [24%] Independent/Other.  Results from the poll conducted October 11, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted October 4, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 21, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 7, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted August 23, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 9, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 26, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted July 7, 2010 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted June 7, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 28, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted April 5, 2010 are in curly brackets.   Results from the poll conducted March 8, 2010 are in square brackets.   Results from the poll conducted February 3, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted December 9, 2009 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted October 14, 2009 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 11, 2009 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

Eighty-three percent (83%) of Illinois Republicans support Kirk, while just 68% of Democrats back Giannoulias. Kirk leads Giannoulias by 16 points among voters not affiliated with either major political party.