Poll Watch: Rasmussen West Virginia Senatorial Special Election Survey

Rasmussen West Virginia Senatorial Special Election Survey

• John Raese (R) 48% [46%] (48%) {44%} [42%] (44%) {42%} [35%]
• Joe Manchin (D) 41% [44%] (41%) {43%} [47%] (48%) {48%} [51%]
• Other 3% [4%] (4%) {5%} [2%] (4%) {4%} [5%]
• Not sure 7% [7%] (8%) {8%} [8%] (5%) {7%} [9%]

With Leaners

• John Raese (R) 50% [49%] (50%) {48%} [43%] (45%)
• Joe Manchin (D) 43% [46%] (44%) {46%} [50%] (50%)
• Other 2% [2%] (2%) {2%} [1%] (2%)
• Not sure 5% [3%] (5%) {4%} [5%] (3%)

Among Voters Certain of Their Vote

• John Raese (R) 51% [50%] (52%) {49%} [44%] (48%)
• Joe Manchin (D) 48% [50%] (48%) {51%} [56%] (52%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Joe Manchin 65% [70%] (69%) {70%} [71%] (70%) {73%} [74%] (80%) / 33% [28%] (29%) {26%} [27%] (29%) {26%} [24%] (18%) {+32%}
• John Raese 55% [48%] (56%) {50%} [53%] (54%) {60%} [49%] / 43% [49%] (40%) {41%} [41%] (37%) {31%} [32%] {+12%}

Would it be more accurate to describe John Raese’s views as mainstream or extreme?

• Mainstream 40%
• Extreme 39%

Would it be more accurate to describe Joe Manchin’s views as mainstream or extreme?

• Mainstream 50%
• Extreme 26%

How would you rate the job Joe Manchin has been doing as Governor?

• Strongly approve 35% [39%] (33%) {32%} [36%] (35%) {36%} [38%] (40%)
• Somewhat approve 34% [33%] (36%) {37%} [33%] (32%) {34%} [33%] (37%)
• Somewhat disapprove 16% [17%] (19%) {16%} [18%] (19%) {18%} [20%] (14%)
• Strongly disapprove 15% [10%] (12%) {14%} [12%] (13%) {11%} [8%] (9%)

How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President?

• Strongly approve 16% [22%] (18%) {17%} [18%] (22%) {17%} [17%] (18%)
• Somewhat approve 14% [15%] (12%) {13%} [16%] (14%) {12%} [15%] (17%)
• Somewhat disapprove 10% [9%] (13%) {15%} [12%] (9%) {12%} [12%] (13%)
• Strongly disapprove 59% [52%] (56%) {53%} [52%] (53%) {58%} [55%] (51%)

Survey of 750 likely voters was conducted October 19, 2010.  The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.  Party ID breakdown: 48% [45%] (45%) {46%} [45%] Democrat; 35% [38%] (38%) {37%} [37%] Republican; 17% [17%] (17%) {17%} [17%] Independent/Other.  Results from the poll conducted October 12, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted October 5, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted September 27, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 19, 2010 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 8, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted August 29, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 22, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 8, 2010 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

Raese is backed by 76% of West Virginia Republicans, while Manchin is supported by just 62% of Democrats. Raese holds a 7-point lead among voters not affiliated with either major political party.