Poll Watch: Suffolk University/WSVN Florida Senatorial Survey

Suffolk University/WSVN Florida Senatorial Survey 

• Marco Rubio (R) 37%
• Charlie Crist (I) 30%
• Kendrick Meek (D) 20%
• Alexander Snitker (L) 2%
• Undecided 11%

With Leaners

• Marco Rubio (R) 39%
• Charlie Crist (I) 31%
• Kendrick Meek (D) 22%
• Alexander Snitker (L) 2%
• Undecided 6%

Among Democrats

• Charlie Crist (I) 43%
• Kendrick Meek (D) 40%
• Marco Rubio (R) 10%
• Alexander Snitker (L) 2%
• Undecided 5%

Among Republicans

• Marco Rubio (R) 72%
• Charlie Crist (I) 17%
• Kendrick Meek (D) 2%
• Alexander Snitker (L) 1%
• Undecided 7%

Among Independents

• Marco Rubio (R) 38%
• Charlie Crist (I) 30%
• Kendrick Meek (D) 19%
• Alexander Snitker (L) 3%
• Undecided 9%

Among Men

• Marco Rubio (R) 42%
• Charlie Crist (I) 32%
• Kendrick Meek (D) 17%
• Alexander Snitker (L) 2%
• Undecided 6%

Among Women

• Marco Rubio (R) 35%
• Charlie Crist (I) 29%
• Kendrick Meek (D) 26%
• Alexander Snitker (L) 2%
• Undecided 7%

If it was apparent your first choice could not win, would you vote for Republican Rubio, Democrat Meek, Libertarian Snitker, Constitution Party of Florida Candidate DeCastro, Independent Askeland, Independent Riggs, Independent Bean, Independent Tyler, Independent Crist, or Independent Armstrong?

• Charlie Crist (I) 22%
• Kendrick Meek (D) 19%
• Marco Rubio (R) 10%
• Alexander Snitker (L) 5%
• Someone else 6%
• Undecided 39%

If Kendrick Meek dropped out of the race, would you vote for Republican Rubio, Libertarian Snitker, Constitution Party of Florida Candidate DeCastro, Independent Askeland, Independent Riggs, Independent Bean, Independent Tyler, Independent Crist, or Independent Armstrong?

• Marco Rubio (R) 40%
• Charlie Crist (I) 35%
• Alexander Snitker (L) 3%
• Undecided 20%

Among Democrats

• Charlie Crist (I) 58%
• Marco Rubio (R) 14%
• Alexander Snitker (L) 2%
• Undecided 24%

Among Republicans

• Marco Rubio (R) 73%
• Charlie Crist (I) 10%
• Alexander Snitker (L) 2%
• Undecided 14%

Among Independents

• Marco Rubio (R) 35%
• Charlie Crist (I) 30%
• Alexander Snitker (L) 7%
• Undecided 23%

Among Men

• Marco Rubio (R) 44%
• Charlie Crist (I) 33%
• Alexander Snitker (L) 3%
• Undecided 17%

Among Women

• Marco Rubio (R) 36%
• Charlie Crist (I) 36%
• Alexander Snitker (L) 3%
• Undecided 22%

If Charlie Crist dropped out of the race, would you vote for Republican Rubio, Democrat Meek, Libertarian Snitker, Constitution Party of Florida Candidate DeCastro, Independent Askeland, Independent Riggs, Independent Bean, Independent Tyler, or Independent Armstrong?

• Marco Rubio (R) 44%
• Kendrick Meek (D) 34%
• Alexander Snitker (L) 3%
• Undecided 17%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Charlie Crist 43% / 43% {0%}
• Marco Rubio 41% / 42% {-1%}
• Kendrick Meek 33% / 38% {-5%}

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as president?

• Approve 43%
• Disapprove 52%  

Is your opinion of Barack Obama generally favorable or generally unfavorable?

• Favorable 48%
• Unfavorable 49%

A bill recently re-introduced in Congress called The DREAM act provides a path to citizenship for young people who came to the U.S. as children and are not legal citizens. Under the act, eligible students could apply for a conditional legal status provided they graduate from a two-year college, complete two years of a four-year university, or serve in the military for two years. Would you say that you strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose, or strongly oppose the DREAM act?

• Strongly support 33%
• Somewhat support 30%
• Somewhat oppose 10%
• Strongly oppose 17%

In 1997 the Florida Legislature adopted the Defense of Marriage Act, which specifically states that marriage is the "union between one man and one woman" and bars the state from recognizing same-sex marriages performed in other states. At this time, which of the following comes closest to how you feel about same-sex marriage in Florida?

• Recognition of legal marriage between people of the same sex 30%
• Recognizing civil unions between same-sex couples 22%
• Absolute prohibition of any legally-recognized unions for same-sex couples 39%

Recently several states have decriminalized the possession of small amounts of marijuana for personal use where the penalty for possession of one ounce or less is considered a minor offense, ranging from $100 to $500. At this time, which of the following describes how you feel about marijuana laws in Florida?

• It should be fully legal to have one ounce or less for personal use 23%
• It should be decriminalized to have one ounce or less for personal use 19%
• It should be legal only when prescribed by a doctor to have one ounce or less 35%
• Possession of one ounce or less should be illegal under any circumstances 18%

Survey of 500 likely voters was conducted October 14-17, 2010.  The margin of error is +/- 4.4 percentage points.  Party registration breakdown: 42% Democrat; 36% Republican; 22% Independent.  Click here to view crosstabs.

Inside the numbers:

Charlie Crist is the strongest second choice and could pounce if Meek supporters defect to make their vote count between the top two candidates. When Meek voters were asked who would be their second choice if it was apparent Meek could not win, 56 percent of Meek voters chose Crist while only 8 percent would vote for Rubio with 26 percent undecided. And if Meek dropped out of the race, Rubio’s lead would be cut to 5 percent with 20 percent undecided.