Poll Watch: PPP (D) Connecticut Senatorial Survey

PPP (D) Connecticut Senatorial Survey

• Richard Blumenthal (D) 53%
• Linda McMahon (R) 41%
• Undecided 7%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Richard Blumenthal (D) 53% / 39% {+14%}
• Linda McMahon (R) 39% / 53% {-14%}

Do you think Richard Blumenthal is or is not fit to hold public office?

• Fit 63%
• Not fit 29%

Do you think Linda McMahon is or is not fit to hold public office?

• Fit 47%
• Not fit 44%

Do you approve or disapprove of Barack Obama’s job performance?

• Approve 45%
• Disapprove 47%

Survey of 810 likely Connecticut voters was conducted September 30 - October 2, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 3.4 percentage points. Party ID breakdown: 41% Democrat; 28% Republican; 31% Independent/Other. Political ideology: 49% Moderate; 32% Conservative; 19% Liberal.

Poll Watch: Suffolk University Illinois Political Survey

Suffolk University Illinois Political Survey

SENATORIAL ELECTION

• Mark Kirk (R) 42%
• Alexi Giannoulias (D) 41%
• LeAlan Jones (G) 4%
• Mike Labno (L) 3%
• Undecided 10%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Mark Kirk 27% / 31% {-4%}
• Alexi Giannoulias 28% / 35% { -7% }

GUBERNATORIAL ELECTION

• Pat Quinn (D) 43%
• Bill Brady (R) 37%
• Scott Lee Cohen (I) 7%
• Rich Whitney (G) 3%
• Lex Green (L) 1%
• Undecided 8%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Pat Quinn 38% / 41% {-3%}
• Bill Brady 28% / 32% {-4%}

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Pat Quinn is doing as Governor?

• Approve 40%
• Disapprove 46%

Governor Pat Quinn says that he supports civil unions for same-sex couples. His opponent Bill Brady opposes civil unions, and has said he favors an amendment to the Illinois constitution banning equal marriage rights for same-sex citizens. Which of the following do you personally favor?

• Recognition of legal marriage between people of the same sex 30%
• Recognizing civil unions between same-sex couples 24%
• Absolute prohibition of any legally-recognized unions for same-sex couples 37%

Recently several states have decriminalized the possession of small amounts of marijuana for personal use where the penalty for possession of one ounce or less is considered a minor offense, ranging from $100 to $500. At this time, which of the following describes how you feel about marijuana laws in Illinois. One, it should be fully legal to have one ounce or less for personal use; two, It should be decriminalized to have one ounce or less for personal use; three, It should be legal only when prescribed by a doctor to have one ounce or less or; four, possession of one ounce or less should be illegal under any circumstances.

• It should be fully legal to have one ounce or less for personal use 18%
• It should be decriminalized to have one ounce or less for personal use 19%
• It should be legal only when prescribed by a doctor to have one ounce or less 33%
• Possession of one ounce or less should be illegal under any circumstances 21%

A bill recently re-introduced in Congress called The DREAM act provides a path to citizenship for young people who came to the U.S. as children and are not legal citizens. Under the act, eligible students could apply for a conditional legal status provided they graduate from a two-year college, complete two years of a four-year university, or serve in the military for two years. Would you say that you strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose or strongly oppose the DREAM act?

• Strongly support 36%
• Somewhat support 26%
• Somewhat oppose 11%
• Strongly oppose 17%

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as President?

• Approve 49%
• Disapprove 40%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Hillary Clinton 61% / 32% {+29%}
• Barack Obama 52% / 41% {+11%}
• Roland Burris 20% / 52% {-32%}
• Rod Blagojevich 10% / 79% {-69%}

Survey of 500 likely voters was conducted September 30 - October 3, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 4.4 percentage points. Party ID breakdown: 35% Democrat; 25% Republican; 38% Independent. Click here to view crosstabs.

Poll Watch: Crantford & Associates South Carolina Political Survey

Crantford & Associates South Carolina Political Survey

Gubernatorial Election

• Nikki Haley (R) 45%
• Vincent Sheheen (D) 41%
• Undecided 13%

Senatorial Election

• Jim DeMint (R) 56%
• Alvin Greene (D) 23%
• Undecided 21%

Survey of 634 likely voters was conducted September 30, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 3.9 percentage points. Party ID breakdown: 43% Republican; 39% Democrat; 19% Independent.

Alaska's Joe Miller Favors Abolishing Federal Minimum Wage

Poll Watch: Rasmussen Arizona Senatorial Survey

Rasmussen Arizona Senatorial Survey

• John McCain (R) 54% [51%] (53%) {53%} [57%] (54%)
• Rodney Glassman (D) 33% [37%] (31%) {34%} [28%] (32%)
• Some other candidate 8% [7%] (10%) {11%} [9%] (8%)
• Not sure 6% [6%] (6%) {3%} [7%] (6%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• John McCain 51% [45%] (53%) {50%} [53%] (52%) / 48% [55%] (43%) {50%} [45%] (46%) {+3}
• Rodney Glassman 34% [33%] (33%) {37%} [28%] (32%) / 45% [41%] (37%) {39%} [41%] (34%) {-11%}

Survey of 500 likely voters was conducted October 3, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points.  Party ID breakdown: 42% Republican; 30% Democrat; 28% Independent/Other.  Results from the poll conducted September 7, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 25, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted July 29, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 17, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 13, 2010 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

McCain is favored by 82% of Republicans.  Just sixty-two percent (62%) of Democrats support Glassman.  Among voters not affiliated with either political party, McCain edges Glassman 45% to 42%.

Poll Watch: Rasmussen Colorado Gubernatorial Survey

Rasmussen Colorado Gubernatorial Survey

• John Hickenlooper (D) 43% (46%) [36%] {43%} (42%) [46%] {41%}
• Tom Tancredo (AC) 35% (25%) [14%] {18%} (24%)
• Dan Maes (R) 16% (21%) [24%] {31%} (27%) [43%] {41%}
• Some other candidate 1% (1%) [6%] {3%} (2%) [5%] {5%}
• Not sure 5% (6%) [20%] {5%} (5%) [7%] {13%}

Among Voters Certain of Their Vote

• John Hickenlooper (D) 43%
• Tom Tancredo (AC) 35%
• Dan Maes (R) 17%
• Other 1%
• Not sure 4% 

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• John Hickenlooper 52% (56%) [51%] {52%} (49%) [50%] {53%} (49%) [55%] {55%} (56%) [57%] / 45% (40%) [38%] {43%} (46%) [44%] {42%} (43%) [38%] {36%} (36%) [32%] {+7%}
• Tom Tancredo 45% (42%) [34%] {38%} (39%) / 47% (51%) [52%] {52%} (51%) {-2%}
• Dan Maes 29% (34%) [42%] {44%} (39%) [44%] {45%} / 61% (55%) [41%] {42%} (43%) [31%] {25%} {-32%}

Survey of 750 likely voters was conducted October 3, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.  Party ID breakdown: 38% Republican; 32% Democrat; 30% Independent/Other.  Results from the poll conducted September 12, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted August 29, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 11, 2010 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 2, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted July 15, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted June 14, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 11, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted April 14, 2010 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted March 4, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 4, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted January 6, 2010 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted December 8-10, 2009 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 15, 2009 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 9, 2009 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

Maes currently carries just 30% of the voters in his own party, while Tancredo, a former GOP congressman, picks up 53% Republican support.

Eighty-two percent (82%) of Colorado Democrats support Hickenlooper. Among voters not affiliated with either party, 44% favor Hickenlooper to Tancredo’s 38% and Maes’ 12%.

Rasmussen California Gubernatorial Survey

Rasmussen California Gubernatorial Survey

• Jerry Brown (D) 46% (46%) {42%} [40%] (43%) {46%} [45%] (45%) {44%} [40%] (43%) {43%} [41%] (44%)
• Meg Whitman (R) 40% (44%) {46%} [48%] (41%) {47%} [44%] (41%) {38%} [40%] (43%) {39%} [41%] (35%)

With Leaners

• Jerry Brown (D) 49% (47%) {45%} [43%]
• Meg Whitman (R) 44% (46%) {48%} [51%]

Among Voters Certain of Their Vote

• Jerry Brown (D) 53% (51%) {48%} [48%]
• Meg Whitman (R) 47% (49%) {52%} [52%]

Favorable / Unfavorable (Net)

• Jerry Brown 45% (48%) {45%} [46%] (47%) {47%} [48%] (53%) {51%} [46%] (53%) {49%} [48%] (53%) / 48% (49%) {51%} [51%] (50%) {48%} [47%] (42%) {42%} [44%] (41%) {40%} [41%] (37%) {-3%}
• Meg Whitman 44% (45%) {55%} [49%] (47%) {49%} [51%] (48%) {47%} [51%] (56%) {48%} [47%] (45%) / 50% (50%) {40%} [44%] (46%) {44%} [41%] (47%) {43%} [34%] (28%) {30%} [27%] (28%) {-6%}

How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President?

• Strongly approve 32% (39%) {36%} [36%] (34%) {34%} [43%] (36%) {37%}
• Somewhat approve 21% (18%) {19%} [19%] (22%) {23%} [16%] (19%) {23%}
• Somewhat disapprove 7% (7%) {6%} [7%] (7%) {7%} [6%] (7%) {7%}
• Strongly disapprove 37%(35%) {37%} [36%] (34%) {35%} [33%] (35%) {32%}

How would you rate the job Arnold Schwarzenegger has been doing as Governor?

• Strongly approve 9% (5%) {8%} [4%] (5%) {6%} [6%] (8%) {4%}
• Somewhat approve 24% (26%) {24%} [22%] (24%) {22%} [24%] (20%) {25%}
• Somewhat disapprove 31% (32%) {31%} [31%] (31%) {30%} [34%] (39%) {36%}
• Strongly disapprove 35% (34%) {35%} [38%] (38%) {41%} [33%] (31%) {34%}

Survey of 750 Likely Voters was conducted October 3, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.  Party ID breakdown: 40% (39%) Democrat; 36% (37%) Republican; 24% (24%) Independent/Other.  Results from the poll conducted September 20, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted September 6, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 24, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 3, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted July 12, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted June 9, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 24, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted April 19, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 15, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 15, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted January 19, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 17, 2009 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 24, 2009 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

Whitman is backed by 85% of Republican voters while Brown is supported by 84% of Democrats. Brown now holds a 50% to 33% lead among voters not affiliated with either major political party.

Poll Watch: Rasmussen Arkansas Senatorial Survey

Rasmussen Arkansas Senatorial Survey

• John Boozman (R) 55% [65%] (60%) {61%} [66%] (57%) {51%} [48%] (54%)
• Blanche Lincoln (D) 37% [27%] (35%) {32%] [28%] (29%) {36%} [39%] (35%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• John Boozman 56% [67%] (65%) {65%} [64%] (58%) {47%} [51%] (51%) / 36% [26%] (26%) {26%} [28%] (24%) {25%} [27%] (24%) {+20%}
• Blanche Lincoln 37% [34%] (37%) {32%} [28%] (31%) {37%} [41%] (36%) {38%} [43%] (45%) / 63% [63%] (62%) {65%} [71%] (63%) {61%} [52%] (59%) {56%} [52%] (52%) {-26%}

How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President?

• Strongly approve 19% [21%] (17%) {24%} [19%] (27%) {23%} [22%] (20%) {20%} [21%] (28%)
• Somewhat approve 15% [10%] (17%) {14%} [13%] (8%) {14%} [16%] (13%) {18%} [13%] (9%)
• Somewhat disapprove 10% [13%] (9%) {12%} [10%] (12%) {9%} [10%] (7%) {8%} [14%] (10%)
• Strongly disapprove 56% [56%] (56%) {49%} [57%] (51%) {52%} [50%] (59%) {53%} [51%] (52%)

How would you rate the job Mike Beebe has been doing as Governor?

• Strongly approve 32% [31%] (32%) {34%} [27%] (28%) {33%} [26%] (22%) {23%} [23%] (27%)
• Somewhat approve 35% [41%] (42%) {42%} [45%] (40%) {41%} [49%] (51%) {45%} [47%] (42%)
• Somewhat disapprove 20% [18%] (15%) {17%} [15%] (24%) {15%} [16%] (17%) {21%} [22%] (22%)
• Strongly disapprove 12% [8%] (8%) {4%} [13%] (6%) {10%} [6%] (7%) {8%} [6%] (8%)

Survey of 500 likely voters was conducted September 30, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points.  Party ID breakdown: 36% Democrat; 28% Republican; 36% Independent/Other.  Results from the poll conducted August 18, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 20, 2010 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted June 15, 2010 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted May 19, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 26, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted March 30, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 1, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 1, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted January 5, 2010 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted December 1, 2009 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 28, 2009 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

Ninety-five percent (95%) of Arkansas Republicans support Boozman, while Lincoln has the backing of just 72% of Democrats. Voters not affiliated with either of the major parties prefer the GOP candidate by 36-point margin.

Can Crist Convince Voters Only He Can Beat 'Radical Right' Rubio?

The St. Petersburg Times' Adam Smith asks:

Where's the Meek mo?

A month ago, Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Kendrick Meek predicted that if he beat billionaire Jeff Greene for the Democratic nomination, he'd ride a wave of momentum and national attention toward victory in November.

It hasn't happened. In poll after poll the Miami Democrat appears stuck in the low 20s and in some cases with less than 20 percent support. He and Republican Marco Rubio have succeeded in dragging down independent candidate Charlie Crist's support, but the only result has been to give Rubio a comfortable double-digit lead.

The election is a month away, Meek presumably has little money left, and he has yet to alleviate widespread doubts about his viability. Very soon, Democrats will have to ask themselves how badly they want to beat Rubio and who has a shot at doing that, former Republican Crist or lifelong Democrat Meek.

Poll Watch: Rasmussen Wyoming Gubernatorial Survey

Rasmussen Wyoming Gubernatorial Survey

• Matt Mead (R) 61% [58%] (49%) {44%}
• Leslie Petersen (D) 25% [24%] (22%) {25%}

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Matt Mead 67% [69%] (55%) {39%} / 19% [22%] (23%) {19%} {+48%}
• Leslie Petersen 42% [41%] (33%) / 25% [28%] (36%) {+17%}

How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President?

• Strongly approve 18% [19%] (19%) {22%}
• Somewhat approve 14% [13%] (11%) {9%}
• Somewhat disapprove 9% [9%] (13%) {5%}
• Strongly disapprove 58% [58%] (57%) {63%}

How would you rate the job Dave Freudenthal has been doing as Governor?

• Strongly approve 29% [42%] (32%) {27%}
• Somewhat approve 44% [40%] (40%) {48%}
• Somewhat disapprove 17% [13%] (18%) {18%}
• Strongly disapprove 5% [5%] (7%) {5%}

Survey of 500 likely voters was conducted September 30, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points.  Party ID breakdown: 49% Republican; 25% Democrat; 26% Independent/Other.  Results from the poll conducted August 18, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted June 22, 2010 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted March 25, 2010 are in curly brackets.

Inside the numbers:

Mead is favored by 84% of members in his own party.  Sixty-four percent (64%) of Democrats support Peterson.  Among voters not affiliated with either political party, Mead is ahead of Peterson by 37 points.

Poll Watch: Albuquerque Journal New Mexico Gubernatorial Survey

Albuquerque Journal New Mexico Gubernatorial Survey

• Susana Martinez (R) 47% (45%)
• Diane Denish (D) 41% (39%)

Survey of 941 likely voters was conducted September 27-30, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 3.5 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted August 23-27, 2010 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Washington Post Maryland Senatorial Survey

Washington Post Maryland Senatorial Survey

• Barbara Mikulski (D) 61%
• Eric Wargotz (R) 29%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Barbara Mikulski 52% / 25% {+27%}
• Eric Wargotz 10% / 9% {+1%}

Survey of 730 likely voters was conducted September 22-26, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.

Kentucky Senatorial Debate: Jack Conway vs. Rand Paul

Part 1


Part 2

Poll Watch: Denver Post/SurveyUSA Colorado Political Survey

Denver Post/SurveyUSA Colorado Political Survey

SENATORIAL ELECTION

• Ken Buck (R) 48% [43%] (46%)
• Michael Bennet (D) 43% [43%] (43%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Ken Buck 37% / 44% {-7%}
• Michael Bennet 30% / 44% {-14%}

GUBERNATORIAL ELECTION

• John Hickenlooper (D) 46% [46%] (44%)
• Tom Tancredo (AC) 34% [24%]
• Dan Maes (R) 15% [24%] (45%)

Survey of 647 likely voters was conducted September 28-30, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 3.9 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted July 27-29, 2010 are in square brackets.; Results from the poll conducted June 15-17, 2010 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Rasmussen Arkansas Gubernatorial Survey

Rasmussen Arkansas Gubernatorial Survey

• Mike Beebe (D) 51% {53%} (50%) [57%] {53%}
• Jim Keet (R) 41% {33%} (40%) [33%] {38%}

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Mike Beebe 63% {67%} (69%) [72%] {68%} / 33% {28%} (28%) [25%] {31%} {+30%}
• Jim Keet 39% {46%} (44%) [45%] {47%} / 39% {29%} (29%) [30%] {27%} {0%}

How would you rate the job Mike Beebe has been doing as Governor?

• Strongly approve 32%
• Somewhat approve 35%
• Somewhat disapprove 20%
• Strongly disapprove 12%

How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President?

• Strongly approve 19%
• Somewhat approve 15%
• Somewhat disapprove 10%
• Strongly disapprove 56%

Survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted September 30, 2010.  The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points.  Party ID breakdown: 36% Democrat; 28% Republican; 36% Independent/Other.  Results from the poll conducted August 18, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 20, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted June 15, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 19, 2010 are in curly brackets.

Inside the numbers:

Eighty-two percent (82%) of Democrats support Beebe, while Keet gets 73% of the vote from members of his party. Voters not affiliated with either major political party give a 4-point edge to the incumbent.

Rasmussen Florida Marco Rubio Favorability Ratings

Among Democrats

• Very favorable 10% [11%] (12%) {3%} [5%]
• Somewhat favorable 22% [19%] (13%) {19%} [12%]
• Somewhat unfavorable 23% [28%] (24%) {38%} [35%]
• Very unfavorable 37% [36%] (37%) {28%} [34%]

Among Republicans

• Very favorable 54% [59%] (52%) {46%} [39%]
• Somewhat favorable 27% [23%] (29%) {28%} [31%]
• Somewhat unfavorable 7% [10%] (11%) {11%} [8%]
• Very unfavorable 6% [5%] (4%) {4%} [8%]

Among Independents

• Very favorable 15% [15%] (23%) {26%} [14%]
• Somewhat favorable 23% [24%] (18%) {14%} [23%]
• Somewhat unfavorable 15% [15%] (23%) {27%} [26%]
• Very unfavorable 35% [40%] (29%) {15%} [20%]

Among Liberals

• Very favorable 7% [7%] (6%) {4%} [4%]
• Somewhat favorable 20% [15%] (12%) {18%} [13%]
• Somewhat unfavorable 17% [20%] (31%) {24%} [28%]
• Very unfavorable 53% [52%] (45%) {41%} [32%]

Among Moderates

• Very favorable 12% [16%] (17%) {9%} [9%]
• Somewhat favorable 21% [26%] (23%) {18%} [20%]
• Somewhat unfavorable 22% [22%] (15%) {39%} [29%]
• Very unfavorable 38% [25%] (28%) {20%} [26%]

Among Conservatives

• Very favorable 46% [54%] (51%) {44%} [37%]
• Somewhat favorable 29% [24%] (24%) {26%} [29%]
• Somewhat unfavorable 10% [9%] (11%) {14%} [15%]
• Very unfavorable 8% [9%] (6%) {4%} [11%]

Among Men

• Very favorable 31% [40%] (33%) {28%} [25%]
• Somewhat favorable 25% [20%] (17%) {22%} [22%]
• Somewhat unfavorable 16% [15%] (15%) {21%} [23%]
• Very unfavorable 25% [20%] (28%) {16%} [23%]

Among Women

• Very favorable 27% [25%] (27%) {22%} [17%]
• Somewhat favorable 24% [23%] (24%) {20%} [22%]
• Somewhat unfavorable 14% [19%] (23%) {29%} [22%]
• Very unfavorable 23% [28%] (17%) {16%} [18%]

Among Whites

• Very favorable 32% [39%] (33%) {30%} [23%]
• Somewhat favorable 27% [24%] (23%) {21%} [23%]
• Somewhat unfavorable 14% [15%] (17%) {19%} [19%]
• Very unfavorable 21% [17%] (19%) {19%} [24%]

Among Blacks

• Very favorable 12% [3%] (13%) {2%} [15%]
• Somewhat favorable 7% [10%] (14%) {13%} [4%]
• Somewhat unfavorable 31% [39%] (41%) {50%} [42%]
• Very unfavorable 31% [40%] (28%) {12%} [13%]

Among Hispanics/Other

• Very favorable 21% [7%] (19%) {11%} [10%]
• Somewhat favorable 23% [19%] (10%) {27%} [29%]
• Somewhat unfavorable 7% [15%] (12%) {45%} [29%]
• Very unfavorable 43% [58%] (45%) {2%} [5%]

Age 18-29

• Very favorable 23% [17%] (10%) {10%} [31%]
• Somewhat favorable 12% [5%] (27%) {28%} [0%]
• Somewhat unfavorable 4% [21%] (14%) {32%} [27%]
• Very unfavorable 49% [53%] (30%) {9%} [15%]

Age 30-39

• Very favorable 30% [19%] (24%) {36%} [8%]
• Somewhat favorable 22% [22%] (17%) {15%} [30%]
• Somewhat unfavorable 20% [27%] (31%) {22%} [29%]
• Very unfavorable 17% [28%] (21%) {16%} [12%]

Age 40-49

• Very favorable 20% [36%] (30%) {17%} [14%]
• Somewhat favorable 42% [18%] (18%) {26%} [20%]
• Somewhat unfavorable 10% [16%] (27%) {33%} [23%]
• Very unfavorable 24% [24%] (17%) {12%} [34%]

Age 50-64

• Very favorable 28% [35%] (34%) {30%} [25%]
• Somewhat favorable 24% [26%] (20%) {17%} [20%]
• Somewhat unfavorable 15% [13%] (14%) {23%} [19%]
• Very unfavorable 26% [20%] (28%) {17%} [26%]

Age 65+

• Very favorable 35% [38%] (36%) {22%} [22%]
• Somewhat favorable 26% [25%] (22%) {24%} [28%}
• Somewhat unfavorable 18% [16%] (20%) {23%} [22%]
• Very unfavorable 16% [15%] (12%) {18%} [16%]

Among Likely Voters Certain of How They're Going to Vote: 63% [62%] (54%)

• Very favorable 42% [45%] (46%)
• Somewhat favorable 17% [14%] (15%)
• Somewhat unfavorable 11% [14%] (17%)
• Very unfavorable 25% [24%] (15%)

Among Likely Voters Not Certain of How They're Going to Vote: 29% [32%] (37%)

• Very favorable 8% [9%] (11%)
• Somewhat favorable 39% [34%] (30%)
• Somewhat unfavorable 19% [23%] (19%)
• Very unfavorable 24% [27%] (33%)

Among Likely Voters Who Consider Themselves Part of the Tea Party Movement: 27%

• Very favorable 57%
• Somewhat favorable 26%
• Somewhat unfavorable 6%
• Very unfavorable 7%

Among Likely Voters Who Do NOT Consider Themselves Part of the Tea Party Movement: 60%

• Very favorable 18%
• Somewhat favorable 22%
• Somewhat unfavorable 17%
• Very unfavorable 37%

Among Charlie Crist Supporters

• Very favorable [1%] (1%)
• Somewhat favorable [19%] (18%)
• Somewhat unfavorable [27%] (33%)
• Very unfavorable [46%] (41%)

Among Kendrick Meek Supporters

• Very favorable [5%] (6%)
• Somewhat favorable [14%] (12%)
• Somewhat unfavorable [32%] (28%)
• Very unfavorable [41%] (38%)

Among Marco Rubio Supporters

• Very favorable [72%] (68%)
• Somewhat favorable [26%] (28%)
• Somewhat unfavorable [0%] (1%)
• Very unfavorable [0%] (0%)

Survey of 750 likely voters was conducted September 28, 2010. Results from the poll conducted September 14, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 25, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted August 9, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 21, 2010 are in square brackets.

Charlie Crist for Senate TV Ad: "$hameless"

Poll Watch: Fleming/WPRI Rhode Island Gubernatorial Survey

Fleming/WPRI Rhode Island Gubernatorial Survey

• Frank Caprio (D) 33%
• Lincoln Chafee (I) 30%
• John Robitaille (R) 19%
• Ken Block (M) 4%
• Undecided 15%

Survey of 500 likely voters was conducted September 22-26, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 4.38 percentage points.

Poll Watch: SurveyUSA Washington 2nd Congressional District

SurveyUSA Washington 2nd Congressional District

• Rick Larsen (D) 50% (46%)
• John Koster (R) 47% (50%)
• Undecided 3% (4%)

Among Men

• John Koster (R) 50% (54%)
• Rick Larsen (D) 47% (43%)
• Undecided 2% (3%)

Among Women

• Rick Larsen (D) 53% (50%)
• John Koster (R) 43% (46%)
• Undecided 4% (4%)

Is your opinion of the Tea Party movement favorable or unfavorable?

• Favorable 32% (37%)
• Unfavorable 40% (32%)

Survey of 576 likely voters was conducted September 26-28, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 4.2 percentage points.  Party ID breakdown: 36% (32%) Democrat; 27% (31%) Republican; 36% (34%) Independent.  Political ideology: 41% (39%) Moderate; 33% (38%) Conservative; 22% (18%) Liberal.  Abortion: 61% (53%) Pro-choice; 36% (44%) Pro-life.  Education: 51% (51%) College graduate; 49% (49%) Not a college graduate.  Results from the poll conducted August 31 - September 2, 2010 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: SurveyUSA Washington 8th Congressional District

SurveyUSA Washington 8th Congressional District

• Dave Reichert (R) 52% (54%)
• Suzan DelBene (D) 45% (41%)
• Undecided 4% (5%)

Among Men

• Dave Reichert (R) 57% (58%)
• Suzan DelBene (D) 40% (38%)
• Undecided 3% (5%)

Among Women

• Suzan DelBene (D) 49% (43%)
• Dave Reichert (R) 46% (51%)
• Undecided 4% (6%)

Is your opinion of the Tea Party movement favorable or unfavorable?

• Favorable 35% (31%)
• Unfavorable 39% (35%)

Survey of 579 likely voters was conducted September 27-29, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 4.2 percentage points.  Party ID breakdown: 34% Democrat; 30% Republican; 35% Independent.  Political ideology: 45% Moderate; 32% Conservative; 19% Liberal.  Abortion: 58% Pro-choice; 39% Pro-life.  Education: 67% College graduate; 33% Not a college graduate.  Results from the poll conducted August 31 - September 2, 2010 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

Reichert, first elected in 2004, leads 10:1 among Republicans. DelBene, a businesswoman and former Microsoft VP, leads 5:1 among Democrats, 17% of whom cross over to vote for the incumbent. Independents break 5:4 Republican.  In the 2008 presidential election, Barack Obama won WA-8 with 57% of the vote.

Rasmussen Florida Charlie Crist Favorability Ratings

Among Democrats

• Very favorable 27% [24%] (27%) {20%} [28%]
• Somewhat favorable 51% [45%] (45%) {43%} [37%]
• Somewhat unfavorable 12% [19%] (21%) {28%} [19%]
• Very unfavorable 6% [10%] (5%) {7%} [10%]

Among Republicans

• Very favorable 12% [15%] (12%) {14%} [20%]
• Somewhat favorable 18% [25%] (25%) {31%} [30%]
• Somewhat unfavorable 32% [29%] (33%) {25%} [26%]
• Very unfavorable 36% [29%] (28%) {28%} [21%]

Among Independents

• Very favorable 16% [26%] (23%) {12%} [24%]
• Somewhat favorable 56% [31%] (39%) {55%} [38%]
• Somewhat unfavorable 13% [19%] (16%) {17%} [19%]
• Very unfavorable 15% [22%] (19%) {6%} [15%]

Among Liberals

• Very favorable 32% [32%] (40%) {17%} [23%]
• Somewhat favorable 56% [33%] (39%) {42%} [53%]
• Somewhat unfavorable 8% [19%] (17%) {34%} [16%]
• Very unfavorable 2% [16%] (2%) {3%} [6%]

Among Moderates

• Very favorable 26% [27%] (24%) {25%} [36%]
• Somewhat favorable 49% [47%] (45%) {51%} [32%]
• Somewhat unfavorable 15% [19%] (15%) {13%} [18%]
• Very unfavorable 9% [5%] (14%) {7%} [11%]

Among Conservatives

• Very favorable 9% [11%] (8%) {10%} [18%]
• Somewhat favorable 25% [26%] (28%) {33%} [25%]
• Somewhat unfavorable 28% [28%] (33%) {28%} [26%]
• Very unfavorable 35% [32%] (29%) {25%} [24%]

Among Men

• Very favorable 16% [16%] (16%) {14%} [28%]
• Somewhat favorable 35% [29%] (36%) {35%} [28%]
• Somewhat unfavorable 21% [27%] (27%) {27%} [20%]
• Very unfavorable 26% [25%] (19%) {19%} [17%]

Among Women

• Very favorable 20% [24%] (24%) {17%} [20%]
• Somewhat favorable 42% [37%] (35%) {47%} [41%]
• Somewhat unfavorable 19% [21%] (21%) {22%} [22%]
• Very unfavorable 16% [17%] (16%) {10%} [14%]

Among Whites

• Very favorable 17% [16%] (19%) {15%} [22%]
• Somewhat favorable 35% [33%] (32%) {41%} [33%]
• Somewhat unfavorable 23% [26%] (25%) {23%} [25%]
• Very unfavorable 23% [22%] (21%) {16%} [18%]

Among Blacks

• Very favorable 40% [34%] (30%) {12%} [26%]
• Somewhat favorable 29% [47%] (53%) {60%} [28%]
• Somewhat unfavorable 12% [13%] (17%) {18%} [15%]
• Very unfavorable 10% [2%] (0%) {9%} [6%]

Among Hispanics/Other

• Very favorable 12% [37%] (23%) {20%} [35%]
• Somewhat favorable 73% [24%] (46%) {27%} [50%]
• Somewhat unfavorable 6% [12%] (21%) {38%} [5%]
• Very unfavorable 8% [26%] (7%) {12%} [8%]

Age 18-29

• Very favorable 34% [32%] (13%) {6%} [18%]
• Somewhat favorable 54% [50%] (34%) {39%} [48%]
• Somewhat unfavorable 9% [4%] (42%) {40%} [15%]
• Very unfavorable 0% [10%] (8%) {9%} [13%]

Age 30-39

• Very favorable 13% [27%] (22%) {11%} [23%]
• Somewhat favorable 46% [23%] (19%) {50%} [35%]
• Somewhat unfavorable 16% [12%] (35%) {18%} [16%]
• Very unfavorable 25% [38%] (18%) {16%} [14%]

Age 40-49

• Very favorable 22% [14%] (20%) {10%} [42%]
• Somewhat favorable 30% [36%] (29%) {47%} [19%]
• Somewhat unfavorable 11% [18%] (23%) {23%} [15%]
• Very unfavorable 36% [31%] (26%) {12%} [20%]

Age 50-64

• Very favorable 14% [18%] (24%) {17%} [21%]
• Somewhat favorable 38% [31%] (39%) {39%} [36%]
• Somewhat unfavorable 24% [33%] (15%) {23%} [24%]
• Very unfavorable 21% [17%] (20%) {18%} [17%]

Age 65+

• Very favorable 20% [18%] (17%) {23%} [24%]
• Somewhat favorable 33% [35%] (41%) {41%} [35%}
• Somewhat unfavorable 24% [26%] (25%) {21%} [25%]
• Very unfavorable 20% [18%] (15%) {12%} [13%]

Among Likely Voters Certain of How They're Going to Vote: 63% [62%] (54%)

• Very favorable 22% [21%] (24%)
• Somewhat favorable 26% [23%] (22%)
• Somewhat unfavorable 22% [24%] (24%)
• Very unfavorable 28% [30%] (28%)

Among Likely Voters Not Certain of How They're Going to Vote: 29% [32%] (37%)

• Very favorable 14% [23%] (20%)
• Somewhat favorable 64% [52%] (54%)
• Somewhat unfavorable 14% [17%] (23%)
• Very unfavorable 6% [5%] (2%)

Among Likely Voters Who Consider Themselves Part of the Tea Party Movement: 27%

• Very favorable 10%
• Somewhat favorable 20%
• Somewhat unfavorable 26%
• Very unfavorable 42%

Among Likely Voters Who Do NOT Consider Themselves Part of the Tea Party Movement: 60%

• Very favorable 23%
• Somewhat favorable 47%
• Somewhat unfavorable 17%
• Very unfavorable 12%

Among Charlie Crist Supporters

• Very favorable [54%] (50%)
• Somewhat favorable [43%] (42%)
• Somewhat unfavorable [2%] (8%)
• Very unfavorable [0%] (0%)

Among Kendrick Meek Supporters

• Very favorable [16%] (17%)
• Somewhat favorable [40%] (55%)
• Somewhat unfavorable [22%] (21%)
• Very unfavorable [20%] (6%)

Among Marco Rubio Supporters

• Very favorable [2%] (4%)
• Somewhat favorable [22%] (19%)
• Somewhat unfavorable [37%] (37%)
• Very unfavorable [38%] (38%)

Survey of 750 likely voters was conducted September 28, 2010. Results from the poll conducted September 14, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 25, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted August 9, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 21, 2010 are in square brackets.

Poll Watch: Marist/McClatchy Wisconsin Political Survey

Marist/McClatchy Wisconsin Political Survey

SENATORIAL ELECTION

• Ron Johnson (R) 52% 
• Russ Feingold (D) 45%
• Undecided 3%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Ron Johnson 57% / 28% {+29%}
• Russ Feingold 48% / 44% {+4%}

GUBERNATORIAL ELECTION

• Scott Walker (R) 51% 
• Tom Barrett (D) 43%
• Undecided 6%

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing in office as president?

• Approve 46%
• Disapprove 50%

Survey of 503 likely voters was conducted September 26-28, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points.

Poll Watch: Marist/McClatchy Pennsylvania Political Survey

Marist/McClatchy Pennsylvania Political Survey

SENATORIAL ELECTION

• Pat Toomey (R) 51%
• Joe Sestak (D) 42%
• Other 1%
• Undecided 6%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Pat Toomey 48% / 34% {+14%}
• Joe Sestak 46% / 39% {+7%}

GUBERNATORIAL ELECTION

• Tom Corbett (R) 53%
• Dan Onorato (D) 41%
• Other 1%
• Undecided 5%

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing in office as president?

• Approve 41%
• Disapprove 54%

Survey of 468 likely voters was conducted September 26-28, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points.

Poll Watch: Marist/McClatchy Colorado Political Survey

Marist/McClatchy Colorado Political Survey

SENATORIAL ELECTION

• Ken Buck (R) 50%
• Michael Bennet (D) 42% 
• Other 2%
• Undecided 6%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Ken Buck 47% / 40% {+7%}
• Michael Bennet 42% / 45% {-3%}

GUBERNATORIAL ELECTION

• John Hickenlooper (D) 48%
• Tom Tancredo (AC) 29%
• Dan Maes (R) 19%
• Undecided 4%

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing in office as president?

• Approve 39%
• Disapprove 56%

Survey of 537 likely voters was conducted September 26-28, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points.

Poll Watch: Rasmussen Pennsylvania Gubernatorial Survey

Rasmussen Pennsylvania Gubernatorial Survey

• Tom Corbett (R) 53% [49%] (50%) {48%} [50%] (48%) {49%} [49%] (49%) {45%} [46%] (52%)
• Dan Onorato (D) 41%  [39%] (37%) {38%} [39%] (38%) {39%} [33%] (36%) {36%} [29%] (26%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Tom Corbett 61% [59%] (60%) {59%} [54%] (56%) {61%} [59%] (57%) {56%} [59%] (67%) / 26% [28%] (29%) {27%} [31%] (26%) {24%} [25%] (26%) {29%} [33%] (15%) {+35%}
• Dan Onorato 50% [47%] (43%) {46%} [48%] (46%) {48%} [45%] (46%) {41%} [36%] (34%) / 37% [32%] (39%) {35%} [32%] (33%) {37%} [35%] (32%) {32%} [36%] (35%) {+13%}

Survey of 750 Likely Voters was conducted September 29, 2010.  The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted September 13, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 30, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 16, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 28, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 14, 2010 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted June 29, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted June 2, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 19, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted April 15, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 16, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 10, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted January 18, 2010 are in angle brackets. Results from the poll conducted December 8, 2009 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted October 13, 2009 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 11, 2009 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

Corbett earns support from 88% of Republicans while Onorato is backed by 72% of Democrats. Corbett holds a nearly two-to-one lead among voters not affiliated with either major political party.

Poll Watch: Rasmussen Florida Charlie Crist Job Approval - September 2010

Rasmussen Florida Charlie Crist Job Approval - September 2010

Among Democrats

• Strongly approve 27% (26%) [20%] {20%} (20%)
• Somewhat approve 44% (46%) [54%] {47%} (55%)
• Somewhat disapprove 14% (18%) [16%] {22%} (17%)
• Strongly disapprove 8% (8%) [9%] {9%} (7%)

Among Republicans

• Strongly approve 11% (10%) [7%] {13%} (12%)
• Somewhat approve 24% (21%) [23%] {28%} (26%)
• Somewhat disapprove 29% (34%) [34%] {30%} (31%)
• Strongly disapprove 31% (34%) [34%] {29%} (29%)

Among Independents

• Strongly approve 18% (15%) [20%] {26%} (27%)
• Somewhat approve 28% (54%) [24%] {30%} (37%)
• Somewhat disapprove 33%(13%) [23%] {21%} (21%)
• Strongly disapprove 20% (17%) [32%] {23%} (11%)

Among Liberals

• Strongly approve 40% (26%) [17%] {27%} (25%)
• Somewhat approve 32% (59%) [43%] {36%} (52%)
• Somewhat disapprove 17% (12%) [15%] {17%} (18%)
• Strongly disapprove 7% (3%) [23%] {18%} (4%)

Among Moderates

• Strongly approve 29% (18%) [24%] {25%} (24%)
• Somewhat approve 33% (53%) [47%] {48%} (51%)
• Somewhat disapprove 20% (16%) [19%] {20%} (17%)
• Strongly disapprove 16% (11%) [10%] {6%} (7%)

Among Conservatives

• Strongly approve 7% (10%) [9%] {9%} (12%)
• Somewhat approve 29% (23%) [23%] {27%} (26%)
• Somewhat disapprove 32% (33%) [32%] {31%} (31%)
• Strongly disapprove 26% (33%) [34%] {32%} (30%)

Among Men

• Strongly approve 19% (13%) [13%] {15%} (19%)
• Somewhat approve 26% (39%) [29%] {31%} (34%)
• Somewhat disapprove 26% (21%) [27%] {31%} (28%)
• Strongly disapprove 24% (26%) [30%] {21%} (18%)

Among Women

• Strongly approve 18% (21%) [19%] {21%}(18%)
• Somewhat approve 38% (38%) [41%] {38%} (43%)
• Somewhat disapprove 24% (25%) [21%] {20%} (20%)
• Strongly disapprove 16% (16%) [17%] {20%} (16%)

Among Whites

• Strongly approve 16% (14%) [13%] {14%} (17%)
• Somewhat approve 29% (35%) [33%] {34%} (36%)
• Somewhat disapprove 27% (27%) [29%] {29%} (25%)
• Strongly disapprove 25% (23%) [23%] {22%} (20%)

Among Blacks

• Strongly approve 29% (36%) [22%] {33%} (16%)
• Somewhat approve 35% (42%) [48%] {54%} (41%)
• Somewhat disapprove 17% (10%) [7%] {9%} (34%)
• Strongly disapprove 4% (12%) [22%] {4%} (8%)

Among Hispanics/Other

• Strongly approve 26% (25%) [28%] {37%} (35%)
• Somewhat approve 50% (57%) [36%] {21%} (54%)
• Somewhat disapprove 21% (11%) [7%] {13%} (7%)
• Strongly disapprove 3% (8%) [28%] {28%} (4%)

Age 18-29

• Strongly approve 24% (33%) [15%] {28%} (25%)
• Somewhat approve 12% (49%) [21%] {45%} (32%)
• Somewhat disapprove 25% (13%) [14%] {13%} (23%)
• Strongly disapprove 2% (1%) [45%] {10%} (6%)

Age 30-39

• Strongly approve 13% (7%) [16%] {27%} (9%)
• Somewhat approve 36% (44%) [48%] {27%} (51%)
• Somewhat disapprove 23% (28%) [18%] {8%} (23%)
• Strongly disapprove 19% (21%) [18%] {38%} (17%)

Age 40-49

• Strongly approve 20% (20%) [16%] {12%} (14%)
• Somewhat approve 43% (34%) [23%] {40%} (37%)
• Somewhat disapprove 18% (15%) [33%] {21%} (31%)
• Strongly disapprove 14% (31%) [29%] {27%} (18%)

Age 50-64

• Strongly approve 18% (15%) [13%] {15%} (21%)
• Somewhat approve 31% (37%) [37%] {34%} (35%)
• Somewhat disapprove 28% (25%) [26%] {33%} (23%)
• Strongly disapprove 23% (23%) [22%] {18%} (19%)

Age 65+

• Strongly approve 22% (17%) [19%] {17%} (19%)
• Somewhat approve 30% (34%) [34%] {35%} (40%)
• Somewhat disapprove 25% (26%) [26%] {28%} (22%)
• Strongly disapprove 21% (21%) [19%] {18%} (17%)

Among Voters Certain of How They're Going to Vote

• Strongly approve (17%) {19%}
• Somewhat approve (30%) {25%}
• Somewhat disapprove (25%) {25%}
• Strongly disapprove (26%) {29%}

Among Voters Not Certain of How They're Going to Vote

• Strongly approve (19%){20%}
• Somewhat approve (54%) {52%}
• Somewhat disapprove (17%) {21%}
• Strongly disapprove (9%) {6%}

Among Voters Who Consider Themselves Part of the Tea Party Movement

• Strongly approve 7% (15%) [5%]
• Somewhat approve 23% (15%) [20%]
• Somewhat disapprove 27% (29%) [27%]
• Strongly disapprove 43% (40%) [45%]

Among Voters Who Do NOT Consider Themselves Part of the Tea Party Movement

• Strongly approve 25% (18%) [22%]
• Somewhat approve 34% (49%) [40%]
• Somewhat disapprove 22% (20%) [22%]
• Strongly disapprove 13% (13%) [15%]

Survey of 750 likely voters was conducted September 30, 2010. Results from the poll conducted September 28, 2010 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted September 22, 2010 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 15, 2010 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 1, 2010 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Chicago Tribune/WGN-TV Illinois Senatorial Survey

Chicago Tribune/WGN-TV Illinois Senatorial Survey

• Mark Kirk (R) 44% [36%] (34%)
• Alexi Giannoulias (D) 41% [38%] (34%)
• LeAlan Jones (G) 5% [5%] (6%)
• Mike Labno (L) 4% [3%] (3%)
• Undecided 7% [17%] (22%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Mark Kirk 31% [23%] (25%) / 31% [32%] (19%) {0%}
• Alexi Giannoulias 27% [31%] (22%) / 40% [31%] (28%) {-13%}

Survey of 700 registered voters was conducted October 18-22, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 3.7 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted September 24-28, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 28 - September 1, 2010 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

In the Republican-leaning collar counties, Kirk now holds a 55 percent to 30 percent edge over Giannoulias. That's up from Kirk's 43 percent to 36 percent edge in late September.

Kirk's support among independents increased from 38 percent to 50 percent, the poll showed, while Giannoulias' backing among unaligned voters was relatively stagnant at about 28 percent. During that time period, the number of undecided independent voters dropped from 22 percent to 8 percent — with Kirk picking up virtually all of those deciding on a candidate.

Trust has been a central campaign theme on both sides, and voters' views on the two candidates have changed since the end of last month. Back then, 35 percent of voters considered Giannoulias more honest and trustworthy, compared with 30 percent for Kirk. The latest survey showed 36 percent of voters felt Kirk was more honest and trustworthy, compared with 31 percent for Giannoulias.

Independent voters have been viewing Giannoulias more dimly the last few weeks, and he is viewed unfavorably by 52 percent, up from 35 percent. At the same time, independents now view Kirk more favorably than unfavorably — 34 percent to 28 percent. Another 30 percent still don't know what to make of the five-term congressman.

Independents also view Kirk as more honest and trustworthy than Giannoulias, 38 percent to 24 percent. Still, reflecting the negativity that has engulfed the contest, more than 1 in 4 independents say neither candidate is more honest and trustworthy than the other.

Though Kirk's socially moderate positions in his North Shore district made some conservatives uncomfortable in the February primary, Republicans have moved strongly to support him. Kirk repudiated an early vote in support of carbon-based emissions trading that conservatives consider an energy tax, sought backing from unsuccessful 2008 vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin and has stressed support of fiscal conservatism.

Though Giannoulias and Democrats have sought to mock those positions, they have only engendered more support for Kirk in his own party. Republicans who said they're going to vote for Kirk jumped from 76 percent to 86 percent since the last poll.

The poll showed potential avenues where Giannoulias can grow support — if he can get Democrats motivated. Concerns of a post-2008 letdown have prompted Obama to make two visits back home to Chicago to help Giannoulias and other Democrats, with a third trip planned for Saturday.

Only two-thirds of voters in predominantly Democratic Chicago back Giannoulias' candidacy, a gain of less than 5 percentage points from late September, while 15 percent of city voters said they were undecided. At the same time, in increasingly Democratic suburban Cook County, Giannoulias carries a slim 49 percent to 43 percent advantage over Kirk.

Kirk holds a strong 15 percentage-point advantage among men, and Giannoulias has an 8 percentage-point edge among women across the state. But the two men each have the support of 43 percent of a key voting demographic: white suburban women who tend to be social moderates.

Poll Watch: UNH/WMUR New Hampshire Gubernatorial Survey

UNH/WMUR New Hampshire Gubernatorial Survey

• John Lynch (D) 51% {54%} [49%]
• John Stephen (R) 34% {29%} [32%]

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• John Lynch 61% {61%} [58%] / 24% {22%} [26%] {+37%}
• John Stephen 24% {18%} [16%] / 21% {16%} [18%] {+3%}

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Governor Lynch is handling his job as governor?

• Approve 58% {59%} [56%]
• Disapprove 28% {27%} [29%]

Survey of 472 likely voters was conducted September 23-29, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points. Party registration breakdown: 46% Independent; 30% Republican; 24% Democrat; Party ID breakdown: 42% Republican; 39% Democrat; 19% Independent. Political ideology: 47% Moderate; 34% Conservative; 19% Liberal. Results from the poll conducted July 19-27, 2010 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted April 18-28, 2010 are in square brackets.

Poll Watch: Rasmussen New Mexico Gubernatorial Survey

Rasmussen New Mexico Gubernatorial Survey

• Susana Martinez (R) 50% (48%) {44%} [42%] (32%)
• Diane Denish (D) 40% (43%) {42%} [43%] (51%)

With Leaners

• Susana Martinez (R) 51% (51%)
• Diane Denish (D) 41% (44%)

Among Voters Certain of Their Vote

• Susana Martinez (R) 55% (52%)
• Diane Denish (D) 45% (48%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Susana Martinez 60% (55%) {55%} [57%] (30%) / 38% (40%) {34%} [29%] (29%) {+22%}
• Diane Denish 48% (53%) {51%} [53%] (55%) / 49% (42%) {41%} [41%] (35%) {-1%}

How would you rate the job Bill Richardson has been doing as Governor?

• Strongly approve 12% (16%) {14%} [11%] (12%)
• Somewhat approve 22% (24%) {29%} [28%] (27%)
• Somewhat disapprove 20% (21%) {21%} [19%] (25%)
• Strongly disapprove 44% (36%) {36%} [38%] (33%)

How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President?

• Strongly approve 34% (34%) {35%} [30%] (37%)
• Somewhat approve 16% (23%) {17%} [19%] (17%)
• Somewhat disapprove 6% (6%) {9%} [9%] (8%)
• Strongly disapprove 43% (37%) {39%} [42%] (38%)

Survey of 750 likely voters was conducted September 29, 2010.  The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted August 24, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted June 3, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 25, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 24, 2010 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

Martinez is backed by 90% of Republicans in New Mexico, while Denish is supported by just 62% of Democrats. Martinez holds a 10-point lead among voters not affiliated with either major political party.

First in Flight: Crist Gets Boost From Space Coast Newspaper

Brevard County-based Florida Today became the first major newspaper in the Sunshine State to back a candidate in the hotly-contested three-way Senate race, issuing the following endorsement:

Our views: We recommend Charlie Crist for U.S. Senate
Crist can bring needed independent, moderate voice to Senate

Florida voters have a rare chance to start changing the bitter partisan climate in Congress this year, thanks to strange political times in the Sunshine State.

Gov. Charlie Crist’s decision to leave the Republican Party and run as an independent for the U.S. Senate has opened that door.

His record as a fiscal conservative, but one with progressive views on a job-creating energy policy and a moderate approach on social issues, reflects two things:

First, the nature of the policies that won him the governor’s mansion in 2006 with the bipartisan support of Florida voters.

Second, the kind of non-dogmatic voices needed in Congress to counter the ideological rigidity blocking progress on important issues such as reducing the nation’s deficit and debt.

For those reasons, Crist earns our recommendation.

Commendable service

His service as governor during the worst recession since the Great Depression has been commendable.

Declining state revenues made painful cutbacks in the state budget unavoidable, but Crist steered Florida clear of extreme tax-cutting measures backed by some GOP lawmakers that would have decimated core government functions such as public safety, the courts and education.

He rightly approved accepting federal stimulus funds that saved or created an estimated 80,000 Florida jobs, including 20,000 teacher positions, and put other state residents back to work on transportation and infrastructure projects.

Crist pushed the Legislature in 2009 to require Florida to produce 20 percent of its energy from renewable sources by 2020. Those are smart standards needed to create new alternative energy jobs, including on the Space Coast where thousands of highly skilled space industry workers now face layoffs.

However, Republicans in the House killed the initiative, worsening the state’s chances of capturing green energy jobs that other states are snapping up.

Crist acutely understands the importance of NASA’s future to Florida’s economy.

He was strongly behind the additional $31 million in funding the state Legislature gave state space initiatives this year and can be trusted to fight hard for NASA in the coming post-shuttle years.

And he stood up for schools in vetoing the deeply flawed Senate bill that would have forced an unfair merit pay system on Florida teachers.

Not a perfect candidate

That said, Crist has his problems.

He has too often tacked with the political winds in trying to gain the support of voters.

Prior to the Gulf oil spill, he was leaning toward approving drilling in Florida waters, but changed his tune after the disaster. He’s also waffled on federal health care reform — he’s been against it and for it — and offered differing views on gay rights.

Despite campaigning for governor on a strong pro-environment platform, Crist signed a 2009 law gutting decades of state growth management regulation that protected Florida’s natural resources from rampant development and sprawl.

His appointment of Jim Greer to head the Florida Republican Party was a disaster. Greer is now under indictment for corruption and leading Florida Republican lawmakers are under as many as 11 federal and state investigations for possible wrongdoing.

Which brings us to Republican Marco Rubio, a former speaker of the Florida House.

Rubio too far right

Rubio is a far-right candidate who would only contribute to the harsh polarization in Washington.

He is deeply involved in the GOP scandal, with credit-card statements from 2007-08 showing he charged nearly $100,000 on the party card, including thousands for personal expenses such as car repair, online purchases, movie tickets and a haircut.

Rubio says he has repaid any personal expenses, but he is reportedly under investigation by the IRS for tax evasion and refuses to release earlier credit card statements, raising suspicion there’s more to be uncovered.

Those and other financial missteps badly damage Rubio’s credibility as a fiscal watchdog.

He also opposed both the stimulus and Wall Street bank stabilization program, and would have done nothing to prevent the country from sliding into another Great Depression, instead of taking necessary but unpopular steps to stop the economic meltdown.

Democratic contender Kendrick Meek of Miami, a former state senator and representative, has served well in the U.S. House since 2002, but also adheres closely to his party’s line.

In all, Crist’s independence better positions him to help change the dysfunctional status quo on Capitol Hill for the better.

He should be Florida’s next senator.

Poll Watch: Fox News/Opinion Dynamics 2012 Presidential Survey

Fox News/Opinion Dynamics 2012 Presidential Survey

• Barack Obama (D) 41%
• Mitt Romney (R) 40%

• Barack Obama (D) 43%
• Mike Huckabee (R) 40%

• Barack Obama (D) 45%
• Jeb Bush (R) 37%

• Barack Obama (D) 42%
• Chris Christie (R) 30%
  
• Barack Obama (D) 48%
• Sarah Palin (R) 35%

• Barack Obama (D) 43%
• A candidate from the Tea Party movement 32%

• Barack Obama (D) 40%
• Sarah Palin (R) 28%
• Michael Bloomberg (I) 18%

• Barack Obama (D) 30%
• Sarah Palin (R) 29%
• Hillary Clinton (I) 27%

Among Democrats

• Barack Obama (D) 80%
• Mitt Romney (R) 7%

• Barack Obama (D) 80%
• Mike Huckabee (R) 11%

• Barack Obama (D) 84%
• Jeb Bush (R) 8%

• Barack Obama (D) 77%
• Chris Christie (R) 9%

• Barack Obama (D) 84%
• Sarah Palin (R) 7%

• Barack Obama (D) 79%
• A candidate from the Tea Party movement 6%

• Barack Obama (D) 77%
• Michael Bloomberg (I) 8%
• Sarah Palin (R) 6%

• Barack Obama (D) 54%
• Hillary Clinton (I) 34%
• Sarah Palin (R) 4%

Among Republicans

• Mitt Romney (R) 78%
• Barack Obama (D) 7%

• Mike Huckabee (R) 77%
• Barack Obama (D) 10%

• Jeb Bush (R) 75%
• Barack Obama (D) 9%

• Chris Christie (R) 57%
• Barack Obama (D) 10%

• Sarah Palin (R) 69%
• Barack Obama (D) 13%

• A candidate from the Tea Party movement 63%
• Barack Obama (D) 11%

• Sarah Palin (R) 57%
• Michael Bloomberg (I) 24%
• Barack Obama (D) 7%

• Sarah Palin (R) 61%
• Hillary Clinton (I) 17%
• Barack Obama (D) 9%

Among Independents

• Mitt Romney (R) 40%
• Barack Obama (D) 29%

• Mike Huckabee (R) 36%
• Barack Obama (D) 32%

• Barack Obama (D) 35%
• Jeb Bush (R) 35%

• Barack Obama (D) 31%
• Chris Christie (R) 28%

• Barack Obama (D) 38%
• Sarah Palin (R) 31%

• A candidate from the Tea Party movement 33%
• Barack Obama (D) 32%

• Michael Bloomberg (I) 26%
• Barack Obama (D) 26%
• Sarah Palin (R) 24%

• Hillary Clinton (I) 29%
• Sarah Palin (R) 28%
• Barack Obama (D) 23%

Who would you prefer to have as Barack Obama’s vice president -- Joe Biden or Hillary Clinton?

• Hillary Clinton 55%
• Joe Biden 25%

Among Democrats

• Hillary Clinton 67%
• Joe Biden 25%

Among Republicans

• Hillary Clinton 44%
• Joe Biden 28%

Among Independents

• Hillary Clinton 52%
• Joe Biden 25%

If the 2012 presidential election were held today, would you definitely vote to re-elect Barack Obama, probably vote to re-elect Obama, probably vote for someone else, or definitely vote for someone else?

• Definitely vote to re-elect Obama 19%
• Probably vote to re-elect Obama 20%
• Probably vote for someone else 14%
• Definitely vote for someone else 40%

Among Democrats

• Definitely vote to re-elect Obama 41%
• Probably vote to re-elect Obama 34%
• Probably vote for someone else 8%
• Definitely vote for someone else 9%

Among Republicans

• Definitely vote to re-elect Obama 2%
• Probably vote to re-elect Obama 5%
• Probably vote for someone else 17%
• Definitely vote for someone else 75%

Among Independents

• Definitely vote to re-elect Obama 10%
• Probably vote to re-elect Obama 22%
• Probably vote for someone else 19%
• Definitely vote for someone else 38%

Survey of 900 registered voters was conducted September 28-29, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points.  Party ID breakdown: 39% Democrat; 36% Republican; 19% Independent.

Poll Watch: Chicago Tribune/WGN-TV Illinois Gubernatorial Survey

Chicago Tribune/WGN-TV Illinois Gubernatorial Survey

• Pat Quinn (D) 39% (32%)
• Bill Brady (R) 38% (37%)
• Scott Lee Cohen (I) 4% (4%)
• Rich Whitney (G) 3% (2%)
• Lex Green (L) 2% (2%)
• Undecided 12% (19%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Bill Brady 30% (28%) / 29% (19%) {+1%}
• Pat Quinn 34% (26%) / 39% (42%) {-5%}

Survey of 600 likely voters was conducted September 24-28, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted August 28 - September 1, 2010 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Quinnipiac Florida Gubernatorial Survey

Quinnipiac Florida Gubernatorial Survey

• Rick Scott (R) 49% [29%] (29%) {35%}
• Alex Sink (D) 43% [33%] (27%) {26%}

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Rick Scott 41% [28%] (29%) {31%} / 40% [40%] (30%) {22%} {+1%}
• Alex Sink 39% [30%] (25%) {28%} [22%] (24%) {23%} [23%] (25%) / 39% [15%] (15%) {14%} [15%] (8%) {8%} [8%] (7%) {0%}

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?

• Approve 40%
• Disapprove 56%

Survey of 1,151 likely voters was conducted September 23-28, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 2.9 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted August 11-16, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 22-27, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted June 1-7, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 8-13, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 20 – 24, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted October 12-18, 2009 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 12-17, 2009 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted June 2-7, 2009 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Rasmussen Florida Gubernatorial Survey

Rasmussen Florida Gubernatorial Survey

• Rick Scott (R) 42% (46%) {45%} [41%] (35%) {45%} [41%]
• Alex Sink (D) 37% (41%) {44%} [36%] (31%) {40%} [40%]
• Some other candidate 10% (10%) {9%} [5%] (6%) {3%} [7%]
• Not sure 11% (3%) {2%} [9%] (12%) {12%} [12%]

With Leaners

• Rick Scott (R) 46% (50%) {47%} [45%]
• Alex Sink (D) 41% (44%) {48%} [42%]
• Some other candidate 5% (6%) {4%} [6%]
• Not sure 7% (0%) {1%} [3%]

Among Voters Certain of Their Vote

• Rick Scott (R) 54% (52%) {49%} [44%]
• Alex Sink (D) 46% (48%) {51%} [50%]

Among Democrats

• Alex Sink (D) 70% (80%) {79%} [69%]
• Rick Scott (R) 16% (14%) {18%} [22%]

Among Republicans

• Rick Scott (R) 78% (85%) {77%} [74%]
• Alex Sink (D) 14% (12%) {19%} [12%]

Among Independents

• Rick Scott (R) 45% (55%) {37%} [35%]
• Alex Sink (D) 41% (34%) {53%} [46%]

Among Liberals

• Alex Sink (D) 83% (78%) {88%} [67%]
• Rick Scott (R) 9% (17%) {10%} [21%]

Among Moderates

• Alex Sink (D) 63% (55%) {62%} [59%]
• Rick Scott (R) 26% (34%) {31%} [24%]

Among Conservatives

• Rick Scott (R) 71% (79%) {73%} [66%]
• Alex Sink (D) 20% (17%) {23%} [22%]

Among Men

• Rick Scott (R) 51% (58%) {51%} [46%]
• Alex Sink (D) 40% (36%) {44%} [40%]

Among Women

• Alex Sink (D) 43% (51%) {51%} [43%] 
• Rick Scott (R) 43% (42%) {43%} [43%]

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Rick Scott 50% (53%) {49%} [45%] (38%) {45%} [39%] / 42% (39%) {45%} [46%] (48%) {33%} [28%] {+8%}
• Alex Sink 48% (45%) {54%} [50%] (49%) {41%} [38%]  / 43% (46%) {35%} [38%] (29%) {34%} [32%] {+5%}

How would you rate the job Charlie Crist has been doing as Governor?

• Strongly approve 18% (16%) {19%} [20%]
• Somewhat approve 32% (35%) {39%} [32%]
• Somewhat disapprove 25% (24%) {24%} [25%]
• Strongly disapprove 20% (24%) {17%} [21%]

How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President?

• Strongly approve 28% (30%) {29%} [27%]
• Somewhat approve 15% (15%) {18%} [19%]
• Somewhat disapprove 8% (6%) {7%} [9%]
• Strongly disapprove 48% (47%) {47%} [46%]

Survey of 750 likely voters was conducted September 30, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points. Party ID breakdown: 36% (34%) Republican; 35% (37%) Democrat;  29% (28%) Independent/Other.  Results from the poll conducted September 22, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted September 1, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 25, 2010 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 2, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted June 7, 2010 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted May 16, 2010 are in square brackets.

Poll Watch: Rasmussen Wisconsin Gubernatorial Survey

Rasmussen Wisconsin Gubernatorial Survey

• Scott Walker (R) 46% (50%) {47%} [49%] (50%) {48%} [49%] (48%) {46%} [48%] (49%) {48%}
• Tom Barrett (D) 44% (43%) {44%} [41%] (43%) {44%} [41%] (41%) {44%} [42%] (40%) {38%}

With Leaners

• Scott Walker (R) 50% (51%)
• Tom Barrett (D) 44% (43%)

Among Voters Certain of Their Vote

• Scott Walker (R) 52% (55%)
• Tom Barrett (D) 48% (45%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Scott Walker 53% (58%) {55%} [49%] (55%) {55%} [51%] (52%) {48%} [55%] (55%) {56%} / 37% (36%) {36%} [38%] (36%) {32%} [35%] (30%) {33%} [28%] (29%) {27%} {+16%}
• Tom Barrett 46% (52%) {45%} [46%] (50%) {49%} [42%] (48%) {40%} [53%] (49%) {44%} / 44% (43%) {47%} [44%] (43%) {42%} [44%] (36%) {46%} [34%] (36%) {41%} {+2%}

Survey of 750 likely voters was conducted September 29, 2010.  The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted September 15, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted August 24, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 10, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 13, 2010 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted July 13, 2010 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted June 21, 2010 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted May 25, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted April 20, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 16, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 17, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted January 26, 2010 are in curly brackets.

Inside the numbers:

Ninety-three percent (93%) of Wisconsin Republicans now support Walker, while 84% of the state's Democrats favor Barrett. Voters not affiliated with either party prefer the Republican by 21 points.

Poll Watch: Rasmussen Pennsylvania Senatorial Survey

Rasmussen Pennsylvania Senatorial Survey

• Pat Toomey (R) 47% <47%> [45%] {46%} (45%) <45%> [45%] {45%} (42%) <42%> [47%] {42%} (43%) <43%> [44%] {37%} (43%)
• Joe Sestak (D) 38% <37%> [39%] {37%} (39%) <38%> [39%] {38%} (46%) <40%> [36%] {37%} (35%) <35%> [38%] {38%} (35%)

With Leaners

• Pat Toomey (R) 49% <49%> [48%] {48%}
• Joe Sestak (D) 40% <41%> [42%] {40%}

Among Voters Certain of Their Vote

• Pat Toomey (R) 57% <53%> [57%] {55%}
• Joe Sestak (D) 43% <47%> [43%] {45%}

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Pat Toomey 54% <57%> [56%] {56%} (57%) <56%> [53%] {55%} (56%) <51%> [54%] {53%} (57%) <57%> [51%] {52%} (54%) / 34% <33%> [34%] {30%} (30%) <29%> [31%] {30%} (25%) <36%> [29%] {33%} (28%) <27%> [29%] {27%} (26%) {+20%}
• Joe Sestak 45% <47%> [43%] {44%} (48%) <50%> [51%] {49%} (52%) <50%> [38%] {40%} (33%) <37%> [36%] {37%} / 44% <42%> [48%] {44%} (42%) <35%> [40%] {40%} (33%) <37%> [39%] {38%} (42%) <37%> [38%] {34%} {+1%}

How would you rate the job Ed Rendell has been doing as Governor?

• Strongly approve 14% <19%> [12%] {13%} (14%) <16%> [14%] {16%} <13%> [13%] {14%} (14%) <14%> [11%] {9%}
• Somewhat approve 28% <26%> [27%] {26%} (28%) <26%> [26%] {28%} <27%> [29%] {33%} (30%) <29%> [28%] {28%}
• Somewhat disapprove 19% <21%> [23%] {29%} (24%) <25%> [27%] {23%} <25%> [24%] {25%} (22%) <27%> [21%] {24%}
• Strongly disapprove 36% <32%> [37%] {31%} (35%) <32%> [33%] {32%} <33%> [32%] {27%} (32%) <29%> [38%] {37%}

How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President?

• Strongly favor 27% <26%> [25%] {26%} (26%) <25%> [26%] {28%} (27%) <26%> [29%] {32%} (28%) <28%> [27%] {32%} (29%)
• Somewhat favor 19% <21%> [17%] {17%} (20%) <20%> [21%] {20%} (20%) <24%> [17%] {16%} (16%) <18%> [23%] {19%} (22%)
• Somewhat oppose 7% <11%> [10%] {11%} (9%) <12%> [13%] {11%} (13%) <8%> [12%] {11%} (11%) <14%> [10%] {10%} (12%)
• Strongly oppose 46% <40%> [48%] {45%} (45%) <42%> [40%] {41%} (39%) <39%> [42%] {40%} (43%) <39%> [38%] {38%} (35%)

Survey of 750 likely voters was conducted September 29, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.  Party ID breakdown: 44% Democrat; 39% Republican; 17% Independent/Other.  Results from the poll conducted September 13, 2010 are in angle brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 30, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 16, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 28, 2010 are in angle brackets. Results from the poll conducted July 14, 2010 are in angle brackets.  Results from the poll conducted June 29, 2010 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted June 2, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 19, 2010 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted May 6, 2010 are in angle brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 12, 2010 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted March 15, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 8, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted January 18, 2010 are in angle brackets. Results from the poll conducted December 8, 2009 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted October 13, 2009 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 11, 2009 are in square brackets.

Inside the numbers:

Toomey has the support of 81% of Pennsylvania Republicans and leads among voters not affiliated with either party by 39 points. Seventy-three percent (72%) of the state’s Democrats support Sestak.

Poll Watch: Rutgers-Eagleton New Jersey 3rd Congressional District Survey

Rutgers-Eagleton New Jersey 3rd Congressional District Survey

• John Adler (D) 41%
• Jon Runyan (R) 39%
• Peter DeStefano (TP) 6%
• Don't know 14%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• John Adler 43% / 30% {+13%}
• Jon Runyan 29% / 30% {-1%}
• Peter DeStefano 6% / 8% {-2%}
• Nancy Pelosi 32% / 54% {-22%}

Survey of 335 likely voters was conducted September 23-26, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 5.4 percentage points.

Poll Watch: Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey 3rd Congressional District Survey

Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey 3rd Congressional District Survey

• John Adler (D) 42%
• Jon Runyan (R) 39%
• Peter DeStefano (TP) 4%
• Other 2% 
• Undecided 13%

Do you approve or disapprove of the job John Adler is doing as your congressman?

• Approve 49%
• Disapprove 34%

Is your general impression of John Adler favorable or unfavorable, or don’t you really have an opinion?

• Favorable 45%
• Unfavorable 26%

Is your general impression of Jon Runyan favorable or unfavorable, or don’t you really have an opinion?

• Favorable 35%
• Unfavorable 23%

Would you rather see the Democrats or Republicans in control of Congress next year, or doesn’t it make a difference?

• Republicans 42%
• Democrats 33%
• Doesn't make a difference 21%

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable view of the Democratic Party?

• Favorable 42%
• Unfavorable 50%

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable view of the Republican Party?

• Favorable 45% 
• Unfavorable 45%

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable view of the Tea Party movement?

• Favorable 37%
• Unfavorable 42%

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as president?

• Approve 44%
• Disapprove 48%

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Chris Christie is doing as governor of New Jersey?

• Approve 61%
• Disapprove 30%

Among Democrats

• Approve 32%
• Disapprove 55%

Among Republicans

• Approve 84%
• Disapprove 11%

Among Independents

• Approve 64%
• Disapprove 26%

Survey of 400 likely voters was conducted September 24-28, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 4.9 percentage points. Party ID breakdown: 31% Republican; 29% Democrat; 40% Independent.  Party registration breakdown: 39% Republican; 36% Democrat; 25% Independent.

Lisa Murkowsi for Senate TV Ad: "It's Alaska's Seat"

Poll Watch: Ivan Moore Research Alaska Political Survey

Ivan Moore Research Alaska Political Survey

Initial Question: If the 2010 General Election for U.S. Senate was held today and the candidates were... for whom would you vote for U.S. Senate?

(NOTE: No mention is made of Lisa Murkowski as a candidate in this question.)

• Joe Miller (R) 43%
• Scott McAdams (D) 28%
• Lisa Murkowski (R) (volunteered) 18%
• Frederick Haase (L) 2%

Follow-up Question: As you may know, Lisa Murkowski is running a write-in campaign for U.S. Senate. Knowing this, would your vote for U.S. Senate stay the same or would you write in Lisa Murkowski?

• Stay the same 55%
• Write in Lisa Murkowski 31%

COMPUTED RESULT – Initial vote question revised with prompted Lisa Murkowski votes

• Lisa Murkowski (R) (volunteered) 44%
• Joe Miller (R) 36%
• Scott McAdams (R) 14%
• Frederick Haase (L) 2%

Gubernatorial Election

• Sean Parnell (R) 53%
• Ethan Berkowitz (D) 35%

Congressional Election

• Don Young (R) 65%
• Harry Crawford (D) 32%

Survey of 573 likely voters was conducted September 23-27, 2010.  The margin of error is +/- 4.1 percentage points.