Poll Watch: Braun Research/cn|2 Kentucky Senatorial Survey

Braun Research/cn|2 Kentucky Senatorial Survey

• Rand Paul (R) 43.4% (42.1%) {41.2%} [40.6%] (41%)
• Jack Conway (D) 39.5% (37.4%) {41.7%} [31.4%] (38%)
• Undecided 16.6% (19.5%) {16.4%} [27.0%] (19%)

Among Men

• Rand Paul (R) 50.2% (46.8%) {50.4%} [47.9%] (47%)
• Jack Conway (D) 38.2% (35.8%) {35.3%} [29.5%] (33%)
• Undecided 10.8% (16.0%) {14.2%} [22.1%] (19%)

Among Women

• Jack Conway (D) 40.5% (38.9%) {47.5%} [33.1%] (43%)
• Rand Paul (R) 37.4% (37.9%) {33.1%} [34.0%] (36%)
• Undecided 21.8% (22.6%) {18.3%} [31.5%] (19%)

First Congressional District: 15.3% (15.6%) {15.4%} [15.4%]

• Rand Paul (R) 41.0% (45.8%) {46.5%} [34.8%]
• Jack Conway (D) 36.4% (31.9%) {35.1%} [31.2%]
• Undecided 22.1% (21.7%) {17.0%} [32.2%]

Second Congressional District: 16.8% (17.1%) {17.1%} [17.1%]

• Rand Paul (R) 46.6% (44.6%) {47.7%} [51.1%]
• Jack Conway (D) 37.7% (40.0%) {38.4%} [25.5%]
• Undecided 15.3% (14.0%) {13.9%} [23.3%]

Third Congressional District: 18.4% (18.5%) {18.4%} [18.3%]

• Jack Conway (D) 54.8% (45.1%) {52.8%} [43.2%]
• Rand Paul (R) 33.1% (40.3%) {34.6%} [36.8%]
• Undecided 10.5% (12.7%) {12.2%} [19.1%]

Fourth Congressional District: 15.9% (15.5%) {15.2%} [15.3%]

• Rand Paul (R) 53.3% (48.0%) {43.4%} [43.1%]
• Jack Conway (D) 25.3% (27.3%) {35.0%} [29.0%]
• Undecided 21.4% (24.1%)  {21.6%} [26.6%]

Fifth Congressional District: 16.1% (16.1%) {16.1%} [15.9%]

• Jack Conway (D) 43.7% (44.0%) {38.3%} [23.9%]
• Rand Paul (R) 38.3% (29.8%) {41.6%} [38.0%]
• Undecided 17.6% (25.0%) [37.6%]

Sixth Congressional District: 17.6% (17.4%) {17.9%} [17.8%]

• Rand Paul (R) 49.0% (44.2%) {35.0%} [39.4%]
• Jack Conway (D) 36.6% (34.7%) {48.1%} [33.7%]
• Undecided 14.4% (21.1%) {16.8%} [25.2%]

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Jack Conway 50.6% (49.6%) {54.4%} [43.9%] (50%) / 28.6% (22.7%) {22.9%} [21.1%] (19%) {+22.0%}
• Rand Paul 47.1% (48.7%) {46.8%} [49.8%] (48%) / 36.5% (33.4%) {36.4%} [25.7%] (33%) {+10.6%}

What is your opinion of the job President Obama is doing?

• Strongly approve 13.6% (15.8%) {13.3%}
• Somewhat approve 23.8% (26.9%) {26.9%}
• Somewhat disapprove 18.8% (15.9%) {18.4%}
• Strongly disapprove 41.4% (38.3%) {39.2%}

Which party would you rather see in control of Congress after the November election, the Democrats or the Republicans?

• Republicans 47.0% (45.4%) {47.7%}
• Democrats 37.4% (36.5%) {36.0%}

Survey of 826 likely voters was conducted October 4-6, 2010.  The margin of error is +/- 3.46 percentage points.  Party registration breakdown: 53.9% (54.0%) {54.2%} [54.2%] (54%) Democrat; 38.1% (37.8%) {37.5%} [37.6%] (38%) Republican; 7.9% (8.0%) {8.2%} [8.1%] (8%) Independent.  Party ID breakdown: 46.8% Republican; 42.8% Democrat.  Political ideology: 47.7% (47.2%) {53.5%} [53.5%] (50%) Conservative; 30.5% (25.6%) {24.2%} [23.3%] (25%) Moderate; 18.1% (23.0%) {19.7%} [19.9%] (20%) Liberal.  Results from the poll conducted August 30 - September 1, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted August 16-18, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 2-4, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 19-21, 2010 are in parentheses.