Thursday, October 18, 2012

Poll Watch: EPIC-MRA Michigan 2012 Presidential Survey

EPIC-MRA Michigan 2012 Presidential Poll
  • Barack Obama 52% [48%] (47%) {49%} [48%] (45%) {47%} [48%] (41%) {43%} [41%] (41%)
  • Mitt Romney 46% [45%] (37%) {46%} [42%] (46%) {43%} [40%] (46%) {45%} [46%] (46%) 
Survey of 800 likely voters was conducted October 17, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 3.5 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted October 4-6, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 8-11, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted August 28, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 24-31, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted June 2-5, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted March 31 - April 3, 2012 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted January 21-25, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 13-16, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted August 13-16, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 9-11, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 12-17, 2011 are in parentheses.
Inside the numbers: 
Almost half — 46% — thought Obama won the most recent debate, compared to 35% who thought Romney won. Eleven percent called the debate a tie and 8% were undecided.
Perhaps more importantly for Obama, he has continued to hold an edge among women voters, who supported him by a 55%-43% margin. Among men the race was statistically even with Obama leading 50%-49%.
Obama also led among every age group except those 35-49.
If the president showed a weakness anywhere, it was among independent voters – where he led 48%-46% with 6% undecided. A closer look indicated that while the margin for the president was greater among independent men — 7 percentage points — independent women favored Romney 48%-44% (though that was inside the margin of error for that subset).

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