Thursday, December 26, 2013

Poll Watch: Fox News 2016 Democratic Nomination Survey

Fox News 2016 Democratic Nomination Poll
  • Hillary Clinton 68%
  • Joe Biden 12% 
  • Elizabeth Warren 7%
  • Andrew Cuomo 4%
  • Martin O'Malley 1%
  • Deval Patrick 1%
National survey of 412 registered Democrats was conducted December 14-16, 2013. The margin of error is +/- 5 percentage points.

Poll Watch: Fox News 2016 Republican Nomination Survey

Fox News 2016 GOP Nomination Poll
  • Chris Christie 16%
  • Ted Cruz 12% 
  • Paul Ryan 12%
  • Jeb Bush 12%
  • Rand Paul 11%
  • Marco Rubio 8%
  • Scott Walker 6%
  • Rick Santorum 3%
  • Rick Perry 3%
National survey of 376 registered Republicans was conducted December 14-16, 2013. The margin of error is +/- 5 percentage points.

Poll Watch: CNN/ORC 2016 National Presidential Survey

CNN/ORC 2016 National Presidential Poll
  • Chris Christie (R) 48%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 46%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 52%
  • Paul Ryan (R) 44%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 54%
  • Rand Paul (R) 41%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 55%
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 40%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 56%
  • Rick Perry (R) 39%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 57%
  • Ted Cruz (R) 39%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 57%
  • Rick Santorum (R) 38%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 56%
  • Marco Rubio (R) 37%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 58%
  • Jeb Bush (R) 37%
Among Independents
  • Chris Christie (R) 59%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 33%
 
National survey of 950 registered voters was conducted December 16-19, 2013. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points.

Inside the numbers:
So what's the secret of Christie's strength against Clinton?
"He performs particularly well among independents, winning nearly six in 10 in that key group," CNN Polling Director Keating Holland said. "He also wins a majority of suburbanites and older voters, something that no other GOP hopeful [that was] tested was able to do against Clinton."
"Christie doesn't win in the Northeast, although he does hold Clinton to a bare majority there, but he has a solid edge in the Midwest while playing Clinton to a draw in the South and West," Holland said.
Not surprisingly, the survey indicates a gender gap: Christie has a 14-point lead among men but loses women to Clinton by 10 points.

Thursday, December 19, 2013

Poll Watch: Harper Polling/Conservative Intel (R) Mississippi 2016 Republican Primary Survey

Harper Polling/Conservative Intel (R) Mississippi 2016 GOP Primary Poll
  • Chris Christie 15.72%
  • Ted Cruz 15.58%
  • Rand Paul 14.45%
  • Paul Ryan 11.61%
  • Marco Rubio 10.34%
  • Bobby Jindal 9.49%
  • Rick Santorum 3.97%
  • Scott Walker 1.70%
  • Not sure 17.14%
Among Men
  • Ted Cruz 19.31%
  • Chris Christie 14.70%
  • Rand Paul 14.12%
  • Marco Rubio 10.66%
  • Bobby Jindal 9.80%
  • Paul Ryan 9.22%
  • Rick Santorum 4.90%
  • Scott Walker 2.59%
  • Not sure 14.70%
Among Women
  • Chris Christie 16.71%
  • Rand Paul 14.76%
  • Paul Ryan 13.93%
  • Ted Cruz 11.98%
  • Marco Rubio 10.03%
  • Bobby Jindal 9.19%
  • Rick Santorum 3.06%  
  • Scott Walker 0.84%
  • Not sure 19.50%
Very Conservative
  • Ted Cruz 22.08%
  • Rand Paul 16.24%
  • Chris Christie 12.44%
  • Paul Ryan 10.91%
  • Marco Rubio 10.91%
  • Bobby Jindal 5.84%
  • Rick Santorum 4.82%
  • Scott Walker 1.78%
  • Not sure 14.97%
Somewhat Conservative
  • Chris Christie 17.17%
  • Paul Ryan 14.59% 
  • Bobby Jindal 13.73%
  • Rand Paul 12.02%
  • Marco Rubio 9.87%
  • Ted Cruz 8.58%
  • Rick Santorum 3.43%  
  • Scott Walker 2.15%
  • Not sure 18.45%
Survey of 710 likely Republican primary voters was conducted December 17-18, 2013. The margin of error is +/- 3.68 percentage points.  Party ID: 77.68% Republican; 22.32% Independent/Other.  Political ideology: 55.92% Very conservative; 32.96% Somewhat conservative; 9.01% Moderate; 0.99% Liberal. Click here to view crosstabs.

Poll Watch: Quinnipiac Pennsylvania 2016 Presidential Survey

Quinnipiac Pennsylvania 2016 Presidential Poll
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 44% (47%)
  • Chris Christie (R) 43% (42%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 52% [52%]
  • Rand Paul (R) 40% [37%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 51% [53%]
  • Rick Santorum (R) 38% [36%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 52%
  • Jeb Bush (R) 36%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 54%
  • Ted Cruz (R) 36%
Among Independents
  • Chris Christie (R) 47% (45%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 31% (37%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 45% [46%]
  • Rand Paul (R) 43% [39%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 46% [51%]
  • Rick Santorum (R) 33% [28%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 48%
  • Jeb Bush (R) 33%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 50%
  • Ted Cruz (R) 34%
Among Moderates
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 48%
  • Chris Christie (R) 40%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 63%
  • Rand Paul (R) 27%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 62%
  • Rick Santorum (R) 24%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 62%
  • Jeb Bush (R) 27%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 66%
  • Ted Cruz (R) 21%
Among Men
  • Chris Christie (R) 51% (48%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 36% (39%)
  • Rand Paul (R) 48% [46%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 44% [43%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 44% [46%]
  • Rick Santorum (R) 43% [41%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 43%
  • Jeb Bush (R) 42%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 46%
  • Ted Cruz (R) 42%
Among Women
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 51% (55%)
  • Chris Christie (R) 36% (37%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 60% [60%]
  • Rand Paul (R) 34% [28%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 57% [59%]
  • Rick Santorum (R) 33% [30%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 60%
  • Jeb Bush (R) 30%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 60%
  • Ted Cruz (R) 29%
Do you think Chris Christie would make a good President or not?
  • Yes 55%
  • No 29% 
Do you think Hillary Clinton would make a good President or not?
  • Yes 57%
  • No 39%
Do you think Rand Paul would make a good President or not?
  • Yes 34%
  • No 48%
Do you think Rick Santorum would make a good President or not?
  • Yes 33%
  • No 54%
Do you think Jeb Bush would make a good President or not?
  • Yes 32%
  • No 53%
Do you think Ted Cruz would make a good President or not?
  • Yes 26%
  • No 47%
Do you think Joe Biden would make a good President or not?
  • Yes 29%
  • No 61%
Survey of 1,061 registered voters was conducted December 11-16, 2013. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points.  Party ID: 36% [39%] (37%) Democrat; 30% [33%] (34%) Republican; 27% [21%] (24%) Independent; 7% [7%] (5%) Other/Don't know.  Results from the poll conducted May 30 - June 4, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 6-11, 2013 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Fairleigh Dickinson 2016 Democratic Nomination Survey

FDU PublicMind 2016 Democratic Nomination Poll
  • Hillary Clinton 63% (63%)
  • Elizabeth Warren 9%
  • Joe Biden 5% (12%)
  • Andrew Cuomo 1% (3%)
  • Someone else 11% (12%)
  • Don't know 11% (10%)
National survey of 412 Democratic and Democratic-leaning adults was conducted December 9-15, 2013. Results from the poll conducted April 22-28, 2013 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Fairleigh Dickinson 2016 Republican Nomination Survey

FDU PublicMind 2016 GOP Nomination Poll
  • Chris Christie 18% (14%)
  • Rand Paul 15%
  • Ted Cruz 14%
  • Marco Rubio 11% (18%)
  • Scott Walker 4%
  • Someone else 16% (21%)
  • Don't know 21% (21%)
Among Men
  • Chris Christie 17% (16%)
  • Ted Cruz 16%
  • Rand Paul 15%
  • Marco Rubio 11% (21%)
  • Scott Walker 5%
  • Someone else 15% (27%)
  • Don't know 21% (16%)
Among Women
  • Chris Christie 20% (12%) 
  • Rand Paul 14%
  • Ted Cruz 13%
  • Marco Rubio 11% (14%)
  • Scott Walker 3%
  • Someone else 16% (15%)
  • Don't know 22% (27%)
National survey of 343 Republican and GOP-leaning adults was conducted December 9-15, 2013.  Results from the poll conducted April 22-28, 2013 are in parentheses.

Wednesday, December 18, 2013

Poll Watch: PPP (D) 2016 National Presidential Survey

PPP (D) 2016 National Presidential Poll
  • Chris Christie (R) 45% (39%) {42%} [44%] (42%) {41%} [42%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 42% (44%) {43%} [47%] (46%) {46%} [44%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 48% (48%) {44%} {49%} [51%]
  • Jeb Bush (R) 43% (39%) {41%} {43%} [37%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 48% (49%) {47%} [51%] (49%)
  • Rand Paul (R) 43% (37%) {39%} [41%] (43%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 48%
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 42%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 49% (50%)
  • Ted Cruz (R) 41% (33%)

  • Chris Christie (R) 46%
  • John Kerry (D) 35%
  • Chris Christie (R) 49% (45%) {45%} [49%] (49%) {44%}
  • Joe Biden (D) 35% (38%) {39%} [40%] (40%) {44%}
  • Chris Christie (R) 49%
  • Elizabeth Warren (D) 33%
  • Chris Christie (R) 51%
  • Howard Dean (D) 29%
Among Independents
  • Chris Christie (R) 49% (39%) {41%} [42%] (40%) {43%} [47%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 26% (35%) {29%} [39%] (37%) {35%} [29%]
  • Jeb Bush (R) 42% (33%) {37%} {43%} [35%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 36% (43%) {32%} {40%} [38%]
  • Rand Paul (R) 47% (34%) {34%} [43%] (42%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 37% (48%) {37%} [45%] (43%) 
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 43%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 39%
  • Ted Cruz (R) 43% (29%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 40% (48%)

  • Chris Christie (R) 57%
  • John Kerry (D) 19%
  • Chris Christie (R) 59% (51%) {43%} [51%] (50%) {49%}
  • Joe Biden (D) 18% (24%) {25%} [29%] (30%) {32%}
  • Chris Christie (R) 59%
  • Elizabeth Warren (D) 19%
  • Chris Christie (R) 61%
  • Howard Dean (D) 15%
Among Moderates
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 45% (51%) {52%} [60%] (54%) {54%} [49%]
  • Chris Christie (R) 44% (32%) {28%} [27%] (30%) {28%} [29%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 55% (59%) {53%} {63%} [62%]
  • Jeb Bush (R) 35% (28%) {28%} {27%} [24%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 56% (61%) {61%} [67%] (61%)
  • Rand Paul (R) 32% (24%) {22%} [23%] (26%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 58%
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 30%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 60% (63%)
  • Ted Cruz (R) 28% (21%)

  • Chris Christie (R) 46%
  • John Kerry (D) 34%
  • Chris Christie (R) 50% (39%) {35%} [38%] (41%) {31%}
  • Joe Biden (D) 30% (44%) {43%} [48%] (42%) {51%}
  • Chris Christie (R) 49%
  • Elizabeth Warren (D) 31%
  • Chris Christie (R) 53%
  • Howard Dean (D) 25%
Among Men
  • Chris Christie (R) 56% (45%) {46%} [47%] (46%) {46%} [44%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 32% (39%) {36%} [43%] (41%) {38%} [37%]
  • Jeb Bush (R) 50% (45%) {46%} {46%} [39%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 39% (43%) {38%} {44%} [47%]
  • Rand Paul (R) 52% (43%) {44%} [46%] (48%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 40% (44%) {41%} [47%] (45%)
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 51%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 40%
  • Ted Cruz (R) 50% (37%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 41% (47%)

  • Chris Christie (R) 55%
  • John Kerry (D) 29%
  • Chris Christie (R) 56% (52%) {47%} [53%] (54%) {49%}
  • Joe Biden (D) 29% (32%) {36%} [37%] (36%) {39%}
  • Chris Christie (R) 57%
  • Elizabeth Warren (D) 27%
  • Chris Christie (R) 57%
  • Howard Dean (D) 25%
Among Women
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 51% (49%) {50%} [50%] (51%) {53%} [52%]
  • Chris Christie (R) 36% (34%) {37%} [41%] (37%) {37%} [39%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 56% (52%) {51%} {54%} [54%]
  • Jeb Bush (R) 37% (33%) {36%} {39%} [36%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 55% (55%) {52%} [55%] (54%)
  • Rand Paul (R) 34% (32%) {34%} [37%] (37%)
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 56%
  • Mike Huckabee (R) 35%
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 56% (54%)
  • Ted Cruz (R) 32% (29%)

  • John Kerry (D) 41%
  • Chris Christie (R) 39%
  • Chris Christie (R) 43% (39%) {43%} [45%] (43%) {40%}
  • Joe Biden (D) 40% (44%) {41%} [43%] (44%) {50%}
  • Chris Christie (R) 41%
  • Elizabeth Warren (D) 38%
  • Chris Christie (R) 44%
  • Howard Dean (D) 33%
Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}
  • Chris Christie 43% [42%] (39%) {44%} [51%] (48%) / 31% [28%] (28%) {22%} [23%] (26%) {+12%}
  • Mike Huckabee 38% {42%} [34%] (38%) / 35% {38%} [46%] (39%) {+3%}
  • Hillary Clinton 47% [51%] (50%) {49%} [54%] (57%) / 45% [43%] (42%) {42%} [39%] (36%) {+2%}
  • Elizabeth Warren 23% [24%] (23%) {28%} [30%] (25%) / 27% [24%] (22%) {20%} [22%] (27%) {-4%}
  • Rand Paul 34% [33%] (36%) {35%} [32%] (32%) / 39% [39%] (37%) {39%} [44%] (38%) {-5%
  • John Kerry 36% / 44% {-8%}
  • Jeb Bush 31% [33%] (30%) {35%} [33%] (38%) / 41% [41%] (37%) {33%} [40%] (38%) {-10%
  • Joe Biden 38% [41%] (40%) {48%} [48%] (46%) / 49% [48%] (47%) {44%} [43%] (44%) {-11%}
  • Ted Cruz 26% [15%] / 40% [27%] {-14%
  • Howard Dean 18% / 41% {-23%}
Among Independents
  • Chris Christie 46% [45%] (37%) {41%} [52%] (46%) / 28% [25%] (31%) {26%} [18%] (29%) {+18%}
  • Mike Huckabee 39% {40%} [37%] (41%) / 30% {38%} [42%] (36%) {+9%}
  • Rand Paul 40% [36%] (41%) {46%} [37%] (40%) / 33% [37%] (38%) {38%} [35%] (33%) {+7%}
  • Ted Cruz 29% [17%] / 38% [27%] {-9%}
  • Jeb Bush 26% [31%] (26%) {31%} [29%] (42%) / 38% [36%] (36%) {27%} [32%] (28%) {-12%}
  • Elizabeth Warren 19% [26%] (25%) {28%} [24%] (20%) / 32% [27%] (21%) {24%} [27%] (35%) {-13%}
  • John Kerry 27% / 47% {-20%
  • Hillary Clinton 34% [49%] (42%) {39%} [48%] (52%) / 55% [42%] (47%) {47%} [41%] (42%) {-21%
  • Joe Biden 29% [37%] (33%) {42%} [43%] (31%) / 57% [50%] (49%) {48%} [42%] (56%) {-28%}
  • Howard Dean 15% / 46% {-31%}
Among Moderates
  • Hillary Clinton 58% [68%] (61%) {56%} [69%] (76%) / 33% [24%] (28%) {27%} [22%] (20%) {+25%}
  • Chris Christie 50% [50%] (43%) {43%} [57%] (48%) / 25% [24%] (24%) {22%} [18%] (23%) {+25%}
  • John Kerry 42% / 34% {+8%}
  • Elizabeth Warren 27% [32%] (30%) {37%} [36%] (33%) / 26% [16%] (16%) {14%} [15%] (22%) {+1%}
  • Joe Biden 42% [53%] (48%) {64%} [64%] (60%) / 44% [32%] (31%) {25%} [25%] (29%) {-2%}
  • Jeb Bush 31% [24%] (25%) {20%} [28%] (24%) / 40% [46%] (39%) {40%} [41%] (46%) {-9%}
  • Mike Huckabee 27% {26%} [22%] (27%) / 43% {49%} [53%] (47%) {-16%
  • Howard Dean 18% / 39% {-21%}
  • Rand Paul 25% [22%] (22%) {22%} [20%] (25%) / 49% [49%] (49%) {49%} [56%] (43%) {-24%}
  • Ted Cruz 17% [5%] / 50% [35%] {-33%}
Among Men
  • Mike Huckabee 44% {48%} [35%] (43%) / 34% {37%} [46%] (39%) {+10%}
  • Chris Christie 42% [41%] (39%) {43%} [52%] (52%) / 36% [32%] (31%) {26%} [22%] (28%) {+6%}
  • Rand Paul 40% [38%] (40%) {43%} [33%] (36%) / 37% [39%] (38%) {39%} [43%] (39%) {+3%}
  • Jeb Bush 34% [36%] (32%) {39%} [34%] (43%) / 39% [40%] (38%) {29%} [38%] (35%) {-5%}
  • Ted Cruz 33% [19%] / 43% [36%] {-10%}
  • Elizabeth Warren 21% [28%] (20%) {27%} [27%] (21%) / 33% [28%] (29%) {22%} [20%] (30%) {-12%}
  • John Kerry 34% / 51% {-17%
  • Hillary Clinton 38% [47%] (45%) {43%} [48%] (50%) / 55% [48%] (50%) {49%} [47%] (43%) {-17%
  • Joe Biden 32% [41%] (36%) {44%} [47%] (43%) / 59% [49%] (55%) {50%} [43%] (47%) {-27%}
  • Howard Dean 16% / 50% {-34%}
Among Women
  • Hillary Clinton 55% [55%] (55%) {56%} [60%] (64%) / 36% [39%] (34%) {35%} [32%] (29%) {+19%}
  • Chris Christie 45% [43%] (40%) {45%} [49%] (44%) / 26% [25%] (24%) {19%} [23%] (25%) {+19%}
  • Joe Biden 43% [41%] (45%) {52%} [50%] (50%) / 40% [46%] (38%) {38%} [42%] (40%) {+3%}
  • Elizabeth Warren 26% [21%] (26%) {28%} [32%] (30%) / 23% [21%] (13%) {18%} [23%] (23%) {+3%}
  • John Kerry 37% / 37% {0%}
  • Mike Huckabee 33% {36%} [32%] (33%) / 35% {39%} [46%] (38%) {-2%
  • Rand Paul 28% [28%] (32%) {27%} [31%] (28%) / 41% [39%] (37%) {40%} [45%] (36%) {-13%}
  • Howard Dean 19% / 32% {-13%}
  • Jeb Bush 27% [31%] (29%) {31%} [32%] (33%) / 44% [43%] (37%) {36%} [43%] (41%) {-17%}
  • Ted Cruz 20% [12%] / 37% [17%] {-17%}
National survey of 1,316 registered voters was conducted December 12-15, 2013. The margin of error is +/- 2.7 percentage points. Party ID: 40% (38%) {41%} [41%] (38%) {42%} [43%] (44%) Democrat; 34% (34%) {32%} [33%] (34%) {33%} [34%] (32%) Republican; 26% (28%) {26%} [26%] (28%) {25%} [23%] (24%) Independent/Other.  Political ideology: 30% (35%) {27%} [31%] (31%) {28%} [29%] (32%) Moderate; 24% (26%) {26%} [24%] (23%) {25%} [24%] (24%) Somewhat conservative; 20% (16%) {21%} [17%] (16%) {19%} [17%] (18%) Somewhat liberal; 16% (15%) {17%} [19%] (19%) {18%} [16%] (15%) Very conservative; 9% (8%) {9%} [10%] (11%) {11%} [13%] (11%) Very liberal.  Results from the poll conducted October 29-31, 2013 are in parentheses.   Results from the poll conducted July 19-21, 2013 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 6-9, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 27-30, 2013 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted January 31 - February 3, 2013 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 3-6, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 30 - December 2, 2012 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: PPP (D) 2016 Democratic Nomination Survey

Given the choices of Joe Biden, Cory Booker, Hillary Clinton, Andrew Cuomo, Howard Dean, John Kerry, Martin O’Malley, Brian Schweitzer, and Elizabeth Warren, who would you most like to see as the Democratic candidate for President in 2016?
  • Hillary Clinton 66% [67%] (52%) {63%} [64%] (58%) {57%} [61%] (57%)
  • Joe Biden 10% [12%] (12%) {13%} [18%] (19%) {16%} [12%] (14%)
  • Elizabeth Warren 6% [4%] (6%) {3%} [5%] (8%) {4%} [4%] (6%)
  • Andrew Cuomo 2% [2%] (2%) {4%} [3%] (3%) {4%} [5%] (5%) 
  • Martin O'Malley 2% [2%] (1%) {2%} [1%] (1%) {3%} [2%] (1%) 
  • Cory Booker 2% [1%] (3%) 
  • Howard Dean 2%
  • John Kerry 2%
  • Brian Schweitzer 1% [0%] (2%) {1%} [1%] (0%) {1%} [1%] (1%)
  • Someone else/Not sure 7% [12%] (17%) {10%} [6%] (9%) {10%} [12%] (12%)
If Hillary Clinton was not a candidate for President, who would you support, given the choices of Joe Biden, Cory Booker, Andrew Cuomo, Howard Dean, John Kerry, Martin O’Malley, Brian Schweitzer, and Elizabeth Warren?
  • Joe Biden 35% [27%] (34%) {38%} [49%] (57%) (32%)
  • John Kerry 13%
  • Elizabeth Warren 13% [19%] (13%) {13%} [11%] (13%) (8%)
  • Cory Booker 7% [6%] (4%)
  • Andrew Cuomo 7% [6%] (10%) {10%} [10%] (5%) (18%)
  • Howard Dean 4%
  • Martin O'Malley 4% [3%] (3%) {3%} [1%] (1%) (2%)
  • Brian Schweitzer 1% [1%] (2%) {1%} [2%] (0%) (1%) 
  • Someone else/Not sure 16% [33%] (29%) {26%} [15%] (14%) (32%)
If neither Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, Howard Dean, nor John Kerry ran for President in 2016, who would you most like to see as the Democratic nominee?
  • Elizabeth Warren 24% [23%] (20%) {17%} [18%] (21%) {16%} [16%] (9%)
  • Andrew Cuomo 14% [13%] (11%) {25%} [22%] (25%) {19%} [21%] (27%)
  • Cory Booker 13% [14%] (8%)
  • Martin O'Malley 7% [4%] (2%) {5%} [8%] (5%) {7%} [5%] (4%)
  • Brian Schweitzer 2% [1%] (4%) {1%} [1%] (2%) {2%} [2%] (2%) 
  • Someone else/Not sure 40% [39%] (47%) {38%} [36%] (36%) {40%} [45%] (46%)
Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}
  • Hillary Clinton 85% {85%} [84%] (81%) {79%} [86%] (86%) / 11% {12%} [11%] (12%) {15%} [10%] (10%) {+74%} 
  • Joe Biden 72% {73%} [73%] (80%) {73%} [80%] (70%) / 15% {16%} [15%] (13%) {22%} [14%] (21%) {+57%} 
  • John Kerry 66% / 17% {+49%}
  • Elizabeth Warren 46% {42%} [43%] (48%) {47%} [45%] (28%) / 15% {13%} [13%] (8%) {13%} [12%] (17%) {+31%}
  • Howard Dean 33% / 25% {+8%}
Survey of 453 Democratic primary voters was conducted December 13-15, 2013.  Political ideology: 35% [38%] (34%) {37%} [39%] (36%) {37%} [32%] (36%) Moderate; 35% [34%] (35%) {31%} [30%] (32%) {24%} [32%] (30%) Somewhat liberal; 18% [15%] (17%) {14%} [17%] (20%) {23%} [20%] (16%) Very liberal; 10% [8%] (9%) {12%} [9%] (9%) {13%} [12%] (13%) Somewhat conservative; 2% [5%] (4%) {6%} [5%] (3%) {2%} [4%] (5%) Very conservative. Results from the poll conducted October 29-31, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 19-21, 2013 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted May 6-9, 2013 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted March 27-30, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 31 - February 3, 2013 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted January 3-6, 2013 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 30 - December 2, 2012 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted April 12-15, 2012 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: PPP (D) 2016 Republican Nomination Survey

PPP (D) 2016 GOP Nomination Poll 
 
Given the choices of Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, Ted Cruz, Bobby Jindal, Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, Paul Ryan, and Scott Walker, who would you most like to see as the GOP candidate for President in 2016?
  • Chris Christie 23% {16%} [14%] (13%) {15%} [15%]
  • Ted Cruz 15% {15%} [20%] (12%) {7%}
  • Jeb Bush 12% {14%} [11%] (13%) {15%} [12%]
  • Rand Paul 12% {16%} [17%] (16%) {14%} [17%] 
  • Paul Ryan 11% {11%} [10%] (13%) {9%} [12%]
  • Marco Rubio 8% {10%} [10%] (10%) {16%} [21%]  
  • Scott Walker 6% [3%]
  • Bobby Jindal 4% {6%} [4%] (4%) {3%} [4%] 
  • Someone else/Not sure 10% {8%} [9%] (13%) {15%} [10%]
Among Men
  • Chris Christie 25% {16%} [11%] (13%) {15%}
  • Ted Cruz 18% {15%} [24%] (14%) {9%}
  • Rand Paul 13% {17%} [18%] (15%) {15%}
  • Jeb Bush 11% {15%} [13%] (16%) {15%}
  • Paul Ryan 8% {12%} [9%] (14%) {8%}
  • Marco Rubio 8% {10%} [9%] (8%) {16%}
  • Scott Walker 7% [4%] 
  • Bobby Jindal 4% {7%} [4%] (4%) {4%}
  • Someone else/Not sure 6% {6%} [7%] (13%) {11%}
Among Women
  • Chris Christie 20% {16%} [16%] (13%) {14%}
  • Paul Ryan 15% {10%} [10%] (13%) {10%}
  • Jeb Bush 12% {14%} [10%] (10%) {15%}
  • Rand Paul 12% {14%} [16%] (17%) {12%}
  • Ted Cruz 10% {15%} [16%] (11%) {4%}
  • Marco Rubio 8% {9%} [10%] (12%) {15%}
  • Scott Walker 5% [2%]
  • Bobby Jindal 3% {5%} [5%] (3%) {3%}
  • Someone else/Not sure 14% {10%} [11%] (14%) {19%}
Very Conservative
  • Ted Cruz 26% {26%} [34%] (20%) {8%}
  • Rand Paul 18% {18%} [17%] (18%) {18%}
  • Paul Ryan 12% {13%} [12%] (17%) {9%}
  • Chris Christie 11% {3%} [4%] (7%) {7%}
  • Marco Rubio 9% {6%} [9%] (8%) {17%}
  • Scott Walker 8% [2%]
  • Jeb Bush 7% {15%} [7%] (12%) {14%}
  • Bobby Jindal 4% {7%} [5%] (4%) {3%}
  • Someone else/Not sure 6% {3%} [7%] (9%) {13%}
Somewhat Conservative
  • Chris Christie 24% {16%} [12%] (13%) {14%}
  • Jeb Bush 17% {11%} [14%] (13%) {16%}
  • Paul Ryan 13% {12%} [11%] (13%) {11%} 
  • Rand Paul 9% {17%} [20%] (16%) {13%}
  • Ted Cruz 9% {12%} [13%] (7%) {6%}
  • Marco Rubio 8% {13%} [11%] (14%) {18%}
  • Scott Walker 4% [2%]
  • Bobby Jindal 4% {5%} [3%] (3%) {3%}
  • Someone else/Not sure 12% {9%} [11%] (15%) {15%}
Moderate
  • Chris Christie 34% {36%} [34%] (24%) {25%}
  • Jeb Bush 11% {18%} [12%] (12%) {17%} 
  • Paul Ryan 10% {8%} [6%] (11%) {7%}
  • Rand Paul 10% {10%} [9%] (12%) {9%}
  • Marco Rubio 8% {8%} [10%] (6%) {14%}
  • Scott Walker 6% [6%] 
  • Ted Cruz 5% {5%} [4%] (8%) {5%}
  • Bobby Jindal 3% {3%} [7%] (4%) {2%}
  • Someone else/Not sure 14% {10%} [9%] (16%) {17%}
Given the choices of Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, Ted Cruz, Mike Huckabee, Bobby Jindal, Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, Paul Ryan, and Scott Walker, who would you most like to see as the GOP candidate for President in 2016?
  • Chris Christie 19% (13%) {14%} [14%] (21%)
  • Ted Cruz 14%
  • Mike Huckabee 13% (11%) {15%} [11%] (17%) 
  • Rand Paul 11% (10%) {5%} [7%] (4%)
  • Jeb Bush 10% (13%) {14%} [12%] (17%)
  • Paul Ryan 10% (15%) {16%} [12%] (7%)
  • Marco Rubio 7% (22%) {21%} [18%] (10%)
  • Scott Walker 4%
  • Bobby Jindal 3% (4%) {3%} (3%)
  • Someone else/Not sure 10% (8%) {7%} [7%] (10%)
Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}
  • Mike Huckabee 65% (71%) {70%} [73%] (69%) / 14% (12%) {15%} [15%] (15%) {+51%}
  • Rand Paul 58% {58%} [60%] (61%) {55%} [53%] (42%) / 15% {16%} [16%] (13%) {20%} [22%] (20%) {+43%} 
  • Jeb Bush 49% {56%} [51%] (59%) {59%} [63%] (71%) / 22% {17%} [16%] (12%) {15%} [14%] (13%) {+27%}
  • Ted Cruz 43% {27%} / 21% {13%} {+22%}
  • Chris Christie 47% {42%} [41%] (42%) {44%} [49%] (62%) / 29% {29%} [29%] (27%) {29%} [28%] (12%) {+18%}
Survey of 600 Republican primary voters was conducted December 13-15, 2013.  Political ideology: 39% {42%} [37%] (40%) {38%} [35%] (41%) {39%} [38%] (41%) Somewhat conservative; 34% {34%} [39%] (35%) {36%} [39%] (41%) {37%} [39%] (36%) Very conservative; 21% {20%} [18%] (17%) {19%} [19%] (14%) {16%} [16%] (16%) Moderate; 4% {3%} [4%] (5%) {5%} [5%] (2%) {5%} [6%] (4%) Somewhat liberal; 2% {2%} [1%] (3%) {2%} [1%] (1%) {2%} [1%] (3%) Very liberalResults from the poll conducted October 29-31, 2013 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 25-26, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 19-21, 2013 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted May 6-9, 2013 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 27-30, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 31 - February 3, 2013 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted January 3-6, 2013 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 30 - December 2, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 12-15, 2012 are in parentheses.

Tuesday, December 17, 2013

Poll Watch: PPP (D) Kentucky 2014 Senatorial Survey

PPP (D) Kentucky 2014 Senate Poll
  • Mitch McConnell (R) 43% (43%) {44%} [45%] (45%)
  • Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) 42% (45%) {45%} [45%] (41%)
  • Matt Bevin (R) 39%
  • Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) 38%
Among Men
  • Mitch McConnell (R) 47% (49%) [49%] (49%)
  • Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) 42% (39%) [44%] (38%)
  • Matt Bevin (R) 43%
  • Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) 37%
Among Women
  • Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) 41% (51%) [46%] (44%)
  • Mitch McConnell (R) 40% (38%) [41%] (41%)
  • Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) 38%
  • Matt Bevin (R) 35%
Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}
  • Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) 31% [34%] (28%) / 37% [24%] (22%) {-6%}
  • Matt Bevin 13% / 23% {-10%}
Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Mitch McConnell’s job performance?
  • Approve 31% {40%} [44%] (36%)
  • Disapprove 61% {51%} [47%] (54%)
Survey of 1,509 Kentucky voters was conducted December 12-15, 2013.  Party ID: 52% (53%) [50%] (51%) Democrat; 39% (37%) [35%] (39%) Republican; 9% (11%) [15%] (10%) Independent/Other.  Ideology: 31% Moderate; 27% Somewhat conservative; 19% Very conservative; 14% Somewhat liberal; 9% Very liberal. Results from the poll conducted October 14-15, 2013 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted July 19-21, 2013 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 23-24, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 5-7, 2013 are in parentheses.

Poll Watch: Quinnipiac Iowa 2016 Presidential Survey

  • Chris Christie (R) 45% [41%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 40% [41%]
  • Hillary Clinton (D) 45% (46%)
  • Rand Paul (R) 44% (42%)
    • Hillary Clinton (D) 48%
    • Ted Cruz (R) 41%
    • Hillary Clinton (D) 47%
    • Jeb Bush (R) 40%
    Among Independents
    • Chris Christie (R) 44% [37%]
    • Hillary Clinton (D) 35% [36%]
    • Hillary Clinton (D) 43% (38%)
    • Rand Paul (R) 40% (44%)
    • Hillary Clinton (D) 47%
    • Ted Cruz (R) 33%
    • Hillary Clinton (D) 43%
    • Jeb Bush (R) 37%
    Among Moderates
    • Hillary Clinton (D) 49%
    • Chris Christie (R) 40%
    • Hillary Clinton (D) 59%
    • Rand Paul (R) 29%
    • Hillary Clinton (D) 62%
    • Ted Cruz (R) 25%
    • Hillary Clinton (D) 59%
    • Jeb Bush (R) 28%
    Among Men
    • Chris Christie (R) 51% [45%]
    • Hillary Clinton (D) 30% [35%]
    • Rand Paul (R) 53% (49%)
    • Hillary Clinton (D) 34% (39%)
    • Ted Cruz (R) 48%
    • Hillary Clinton (D) 38%
    • Jeb Bush (R) 49%
    • Hillary Clinton (D) 35%
    Among Women
    • Hillary Clinton (D) 49% [47%]
    • Chris Christie (R) 39% [37%]
    • Hillary Clinton (D) 56% (53%)
    • Rand Paul (R) 35% (34%)
      • Hillary Clinton (D) 57%
      • Ted Cruz (R) 34%
      • Hillary Clinton (D) 57%
      • Jeb Bush (R) 33%
      Do you think Chris Christie would make a good President or not?
      • Yes 46%
      • No 30%
      Do you think Hillary Clinton would make a good President or not?
      • Yes 53%
      • No 42% 
      Do you think Rand Paul would make a good President or not?
      • Yes 38%
      • No 42%
      Do you think Jeb Bush would make a good President or not?
      • Yes 36%
      • No 47%
      Do you think Ted Cruz would make a good President or not?
      • Yes 28%
      • No 42%
      Do you think Joe Biden would make a good President or not?
      • Yes 29%
      • No 62%
      Survey of 1,617 registered voters was conducted December 10-15, 2013. The margin of error is +/- 2.4 percentage points.  Party ID: 28% [27%] Republican; 27% [29%] Democrat; 40% [40%] Independent; 4% [4%] Other/Don't know. Ideology: 41% Moderate; 39% Conservative; 16% Liberal.  Gender: 52% [51%] Female; 48% [49%] Male.  Race: 92% [93%] White; 2% [3%] Black; 2% [1%] Hispanic; 3% [4%] Other/Don't know.  Results from the poll conducted July 15-17, 2013 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted May 15-21, 2013 are in parentheses.

      Monday, December 16, 2013

      Poll Watch: PPP (D) Arkansas 2014 Senatorial Survey

      PPP (D) Arkansas 2014 Senate Poll
      • Tom Cotton (R) 44% (41%)
      • Mark Pryor (D) 44% (44%)
      Among Men
      • Tom Cotton (R) 53% (50%)
      • Mark Pryor (D) 39% (38%)
      Among Women
      • Mark Pryor (D) 49% (50%)
      • Tom Cotton (R) 37% (33%)
      Survey of 1,004 Arkansas voters was conducted December 13-15, 2013 on behalf of Americans United for Change. The margin of error is +/- 3.1 percentage points. Party ID: 37% (37%) Democrat; 27% (27%) Republican; 37% (36%) Independent/Other. Results from the poll conducted October 14-15, 2013 are in parentheses.

      Sunday, December 15, 2013

      Poll Watch: Des Moines Register/Selzer & Co. Iowa 2016 Presidential Survey

      Des Moines Register/Selzer & Co. Iowa 2016 Presidential Poll 

      Favorable / Unfavorable {Net} 
      • Chris Christie 44% / 29% {+15%}
      • Paul Ryan 40% / 32% {+8%}
      • Hillary Clinton 50% / 45% {+5%}
      • Mike Huckabee 39% / 35% {+4%}
      • Scott Walker 26% / 26% {0%}
      • Marco Rubio 26% / 30% {-4%}
      • Rick Santorum 31% / 36% {-5%}
      • Rand Paul 31% / 38% {-7%}
      • Ted Cruz 24% / 32% {-8%}
      • Brian Schweitzer 12% / 20% {-8%
      • Rick Perry 31% / 40% {-9%}
      • Jeb Bush 29% / 44% {-15%}  
      • Martin O'Malley 8% / 24% {-16%}
      • Joe Biden 36% / 57% {-21%}
      Survey of 650 adults was conducted December 8-11, 2013. The margin of error is +/- 3.8 percentage points.

      Saturday, December 14, 2013

      Poll Watch: Des Moines Register/Selzer & Co. Iowa 2016 Democratic Caucus Survey

      Des Moines Register/Selzer & Co. Iowa 2016 Democratic Caucus Poll 

      Favorable / Unfavorable {Net} 
      • Hillary Clinton 89% / 7% {+82%}
      • Joe Biden 71% / 18% {+53%}
      • Martin O'Malley 18% / 13% {+5%}
      • Brian Schweitzer 16% / 14% {+2%}
      Survey of 151 Democratic adults was conducted December 8-11, 2013. The margin of error is +/- 8 percentage points.

      Poll Watch: Des Moines Register/Selzer & Co. Iowa 2016 Republican Caucus Survey

      Des Moines Register/Selzer & Co. Iowa 2016 GOP Caucus Poll 

      Favorable / Unfavorable {Net} 
      • Paul Ryan 73% / 10% {+63%}
      • Mike Huckabee 66% / 17% {+49%}
      • Rick Santorum 58% / 21% {+37%}
      • Rick Perry 55% / 19% {+36%}
      • Scott Walker 46% / 11% {+35%}
      • Marco Rubio 46% / 15% {+31%}
      • Ted Cruz 46% / 17% {+29%}
      • Rand Paul 51% / 23% {+28%}
      • Jeb Bush 51% / 26% {+25%}
      • Chris Christie 51% / 30% {+21%}
      Survey of 182 Republican adults was conducted December 8-11, 2013. The margin of error is +/- 7.3 percentage points.

      Thursday, December 12, 2013

      Poll Watch: PPP (D) North Carolina 2016 Presidential Survey

      PPP (D) North Carolina 2016 Presidential Poll
      • Chris Christie (R) 45% [46%]
      • Hillary Clinton (D) 42% [43%]
      • Hillary Clinton (D) 46% [47%]
      • Jeb Bush (R) 45% [43%]
      • Hillary Clinton (D) 48% [50%] (52%)
      • Rand Paul (R) 44% [41%] (40%)
      • Hillary Clinton (D) 49% [51%]
      • Ted Cruz (R) 41% [39%]
      Among Independents
      • Chris Christie (R) 50% [46%]
      • Hillary Clinton (D) 31% [31%]
      • Jeb Bush (R) 44% [41%]
      • Hillary Clinton (D) 37% [40%]
      • Rand Paul (R) 48% [45%] (42%)
      • Hillary Clinton (D) 42% [42%] (48%)
      • Hillary Clinton (D) 43% [43%]
      • Ted Cruz (R) 41% [40%]
      Among Moderates
      • Hillary Clinton (D) 51% [54%]
      • Chris Christie (R) 32% [36%]
      • Hillary Clinton (D) 59% [61%]
      • Jeb Bush (R) 30% [26%]
      • Hillary Clinton (D) 62% [63%] (65%)
      • Rand Paul (R) 25% [26%] (25%)
      • Hillary Clinton (D) 65% [65%]
      • Ted Cruz (R) 23% [24%]
      Among Men
      • Chris Christie (R) 51% [51%]
      • Hillary Clinton (D) 35% [37%]
      • Jeb Bush (R) 51% [46%] 
      • Hillary Clinton (D) 38% [42%]
      • Rand Paul (R) 49% [46%] (47%)
      • Hillary Clinton (D) 43% [46%] (46%)
      • Ted Cruz (R) 47% [44%]
      • Hillary Clinton (D) 44% [47%]
      Among Women
      • Hillary Clinton (D) 49% [47%]
      • Chris Christie (R) 40% [42%]
      • Hillary Clinton (D) 53% [52%]
      • Jeb Bush (R) 39% [40%]
      • Hillary Clinton (D) 53% [54%] (57%)
      • Rand Paul (R) 38% [38%] (35%)
      • Hillary Clinton (D) 54% [55%]
      • Ted Cruz (R) 37% [34%]
      Survey of 1,281 North Carolina voters was conducted December 5-8, 2013. The margin of error is +/- 2.7 percentage points. Party ID: 43% [45%] (43%) Democrat; 34% [33%] (34%) Republican; 23% [21%] (24%) Independent/Other. Political ideology: 29% [34%] (29%) Moderate; 24% [24%] (25%) Somewhat conservative; 19% [19%] (17%) Very conservative; 16% [11%] (17%) Somewhat liberal; 12% [13%] (12%) Very liberalResults from the poll conducted November 8-11, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 11-14, 2013 are in parentheses.

      Poll Watch: PPP (D) North Carolina 2016 Republican Primary Survey

      PPP (D) North Carolina 2016 GOP Primary Poll
      • Chris Christie 19% [20%] (10%)
      • Jeb Bush 15% [16%] (9%)
      • Rand Paul 13% [12%] (6%)
      • Ted Cruz 12% [12%]
      • Marco Rubio 10% [10%] (21%
      • Paul Ryan 7% [7%] (12%) 
      • Scott Walker 5% [1%] 
      • Rick Santorum 5% [2%] (5%)
      • Bobby Jindal 3% [6%] 
      • Someone else/Not sure 11% [13%] (8%)
      Among Men
      • Chris Christie 18% [19%] (10%)
      • Ted Cruz 15% [16%]
      • Rand Paul 15% [16%] (9%)
      • Jeb Bush 14% [14%] (11%)
      • Marco Rubio 10% [9%] (22%)
      • Rick Santorum 6% [4%] (5%)
      • Scott Walker 6% [1%] 
      • Paul Ryan 5% [6%] (12%)
      • Bobby Jindal 3% [5%] 
      • Someone else/Not sure 7% [10%] (7%)
      Among Women
      • Chris Christie 19% [20%] (10%)
      • Jeb Bush 16% [18%] (8%)
      • Rand Paul 11% [8%] (4%)
      • Marco Rubio 10% [10%] (19%)
      • Ted Cruz 10% [9%]
      • Paul Ryan 8% [9%] (12%) 
      • Scott Walker 4% [0%]
      • Rick Santorum 4% [1%] (4%)
      • Bobby Jindal 3% [7%] 
      • Someone else/Not sure 15% [17%] (10%)
      Survey of 529 Republican primary voters was conducted December 5-8, 2013. The margin of error is +/- 4.3 percentage points. Political ideology: 39% [36%] (35%) Somewhat conservative; 37% [36%] (44%) Very conservative; 16% [21%] (13%) Moderate; 7% [4%] (6%) Somewhat liberal; 1% [3%] (1%) Very liberal.  Results from the poll conducted November 8-11, 2012 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted December 6-9, 2012 are in parentheses.

      Poll Watch: Quinnipiac 2016 Democratic Nomination Survey

      • Hillary Clinton 66% [61%] (65%)
      • Joe Biden 8% [11%] (13%)
      • Elizabeth Warren 7% [7%]
      • Andrew Cuomo 3% [2%] (4%)
      • Howard Dean 1%
      • Brian Schweitzer 1%
      • Martin O'Malley 0% [0%] (1%)
      • Don't know 12% [15%] (14%)
      National survey of registered Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters was conducted December 3-9, 2013. Results from the poll conducted September 23-29, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 25-29, 2013 are in parentheses.

      Wednesday, December 11, 2013

      Poll Watch: Quinnipiac 2016 Republican Nomination Survey

      Quinnipiac 2016 GOP Nomination Poll
      • Chris Christie 17% [13%] (14%) 
      • Rand Paul 14% [17%] (15%) 
      • Ted Cruz 13% [10%] 
      • Jeb Bush 11% [11%] (10%)
      • Paul Ryan 9% [10%] (17%)
      • Marco Rubio 7% [12%] (19%)
      • Scott Walker 5% [4%] (2%)
      • Bobby Jindal 3% [3%] (3%)
      • John Kasich 2%
      • Don't know 17% [19%] (18%)
      Among Men
      • Rand Paul 18% [18%] (18%) 
      • Chris Christie 14% [11%] (17%)
      • Ted Cruz 14% [13%]
      • Jeb Bush 11% [13%] (9%)
      • Paul Ryan 9% [10%] (16%)
      • Marco Rubio 8% [10%] (19%)
      • Scott Walker 6% [5%] (2%)
      • Bobby Jindal 3% [3%] (3%)
      • John Kasich 2%
      • Don't know 14% [15%] (14%)
      Among Women
      • Chris Christie 21% [15%] (11%) 
      • Ted Cruz 12% [7%]
      • Jeb Bush 11% [9%] (12%)
      • Paul Ryan 9% [10%] (17%)
      • Rand Paul 9% [17%] (11%) 
      • Marco Rubio 6% [13%] (19%)
      • Scott Walker 4% [2%] (2%)
      • Bobby Jindal 2% [3%] (3%)
      • John Kasich 1%
      • Don't know 21% [22%] (23%)
      Survey of registered Republican and GOP-leaning voters was conducted December 3-9, 2013.  Results from the poll conducted September 23-29, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 26 - April 1, 2013 are in parentheses.

      Poll Watch: Quinnipiac 2016 Presidential Survey

      • Chris Christie (R) 42% {43%} [36%] (40%) [37%]
      • Hillary Clinton (D) 41% {42%} [49%] (46%) [45%] 
      • Hillary Clinton (D) 48% {49%} [53%] (50%) {49%}
      • Rand Paul (R) 41% {40%} [36%] (38%) {41%}
      • Hillary Clinton (D) 48% {48%}
      • Jeb Bush (R) 39% {40%}
      • Hillary Clinton (D) 50% {51%} [54%]
      • Ted Cruz (R) 37% {36%} [31%]
      Among Independents
      • Chris Christie (R) 47% {48%} [38%] (41%) [36%]
      • Hillary Clinton (D) 32% {32%} [40%] (39%) [36%
      • Hillary Clinton (D) 43% {43%} [43%] (42%) {41%}
      • Rand Paul (R) 43% {41%} [39%] (41%) {45%}
      • Hillary Clinton (D) 44% {42%}
      • Jeb Bush (R) 39% {43%}
      • Hillary Clinton (D) 46% {47%} [48%]
      • Ted Cruz (R) 37% {35%} [29%]
      Among Moderates
      • Hillary Clinton (D) 48% {45%} [53%]
      • Chris Christie (R) 38% {40%} [33%] 
      • Hillary Clinton (D) 60% {60%} [60%] 
      • Rand Paul (R) 28% {28%} [25%]
      • Hillary Clinton (D) 60%
      • Jeb Bush (R) 28%
      • Hillary Clinton (D) 63% {65%} [61%]
      • Ted Cruz (R) 22% {21%} [20%]
      Among Men
      • Chris Christie (R) 49% {47%} [39%] (43%) [41%
      • Hillary Clinton (D) 33% {35%} [45%] (38%) [38%] 
      • Rand Paul (R) 51% {46%} [42%] (45%) {49%}
      • Hillary Clinton (D) 40% {43%} [47%] (42%) {40%}
      • Jeb Bush (R) 47% {45%}
      • Hillary Clinton (D) 40% {40%}
      • Ted Cruz (R) 45% {41%} [36%]
      • Hillary Clinton (D) 43% {45%} [49%]
      Among Women
      • Hillary Clinton (D) 50% {48%} [52%] (53%) [51%]
      • Chris Christie (R) 36% {39%} [33%] (36%) [32%]
      • Hillary Clinton (D) 57% {54%} [58%] (58%) {57%}
      • Rand Paul (R) 32% {34%} [30%] (32%) {33%}
      • Hillary Clinton (D) 57% {55%}
      • Jeb Bush (R) 31% {35%}
      • Hillary Clinton (D) 58% {57%} [58%]
      • Ted Cruz (R) 29% {31%} [27%]
      Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}
      • Chris Christie 47% [40%] (45%) / 23% [22%] (18%) {+24%}
      • Hillary Clinton 53% [56%] (55%) {52%} (61%) / 42% [36%] (38%) {40%} (34%) {+11%}
      • Paul Ryan 38% [34%] / 31% [36%] {+7%}
      • Bobby Jindal 21% / 15% {+6%}
      • Scott Walker 21% / 16% {+5%}
      • Rand Paul 34% [30%] (31%) {32%} / 31% [33%] (28%) {24%} {+3%}
      • John Kasich 12% / 9% {+3%}
      • Marco Rubio 26% [27%] / 25% [15%] {+1%}
      • Ted Cruz 27% [16%] / 27% [25%] {0%}
      • Elizabeth Warren 17% / 19% {-2%}
      • Andrew Cuomo 19% / 23% {-4%}
      • Brian Schweitzer 3% / 7% {-4%}
      • Martin O'Malley 3% / 9% {-6%}
      • Jeb Bush 31% {29%} (25%) / 38% {29%} (29%) {-7%
      • Joe Biden 37% (38%) {37%} (46%) / 48% (44%) {44%} (41%) {-11%}
      • Howard Dean 15% / 30% {-15%}
      Survey of 2,692 registered voters was conducted December 3-9, 2013. The margin of error is +/- 1.9 percentage points.  Party ID: 31% {32%} [35%] (32%) {33%} [34%] Democrat; 26% {26%} [24%] (23%) {27%} [25%] Republican; 34% {35%} [31%] (35%) {33%} [34%] Independent; 9% {7%} [9%] (9%) {7%} [7%] Other/Don't know. Race: 74% {72%} [72%] White; 12% {12%} [12%] Black; 7% {7%} [8%] Hispanic; 6% {8%} [8%] Other.  Results from the poll conducted November 6-11, 2013 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 23-29, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted June 28 - July 8, 2013 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted May 22-28, 2013 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted February 27 - March 4, 2013 are in square brackets.

      Poll Watch: PPP (D) Michigan 2016 Presidential Survey

      • Hillary Clinton (D) 43% [44%]
      • Chris Christie (R) 40% [38%]
      • Hillary Clinton (D) 46% [51%]
      • Jeb Bush (R) 42% [37%]
      • Hillary Clinton (D) 48% [55%]
      • Rand Paul (R) 39% [35%]
      • Hillary Clinton (D) 49%
      • Ted Cruz (R) 38%
      Among Independents
      • Chris Christie (R) 42% [43%]
      • Hillary Clinton (D) 29% [28%]
      • Jeb Bush (R) 45% [40%]
      • Hillary Clinton (D) 34% [39%]
      • Rand Paul (R) 45% [43%]
      • Hillary Clinton (D) 36% [43%]
      • Ted Cruz (R) 43%
      • Hillary Clinton (D) 38%
      Among Moderates
      • Hillary Clinton (D) 47% [52%]
      • Chris Christie (R) 32% [29%]
      • Hillary Clinton (D) 59% [59%]
      • Jeb Bush (R) 29% [28%]
      • Hillary Clinton (D) 61% [71%]
      • Rand Paul (R) 23% [20%]
      • Hillary Clinton (D) 61%
      • Ted Cruz (R) 22%
      Among Men
      • Chris Christie (R) 48% [43%]
      • Hillary Clinton (D) 34% [40%]
      • Jeb Bush (R) 52% [43%]
      • Hillary Clinton (D) 35% [45%]
      • Rand Paul (R) 49% [42%]
      • Hillary Clinton (D) 38% [49%]
      • Ted Cruz (R) 46%
      • Hillary Clinton (D) 40%
      Among Women 
      • Hillary Clinton (D) 50% [49%]
      • Chris Christie (R) 32% [34%]
      • Hillary Clinton (D) 56% [57%]
      • Jeb Bush (R) 34% [31%]
      • Hillary Clinton (D) 56% [62%]
      • Rand Paul (R) 31% [27%]
      • Hillary Clinton (D) 57%
      • Ted Cruz (R) 31%
      Survey of 1,034 Michigan voters was conducted December 5-8, 2013.  The margin of error is +/- 3.0 percentage points. Party ID: 35% [36%] (33%) Democrat; 30% [29%] (29%) Republican; 35% [35%] (38%) Independent/Other.  Political ideology: 31% [33%] (34%) Moderate; 25% [25%] (23%) Somewhat conservative; 17% [18%] (18%) Somewhat liberal; 14% [13%] (14%) Very conservative; 12% [11%] (11%) Very liberal. Results from the poll conducted May 30 - June 2, 2013 are in square brackets.

      Poll Watch: PPP (D) Michigan 2016 Republican Primary Survey

      PPP (D) Michigan 2016 GOP Primary Poll
      • Rand Paul 18% (18%)
      • Chris Christie 16% (15%)
      • Ted Cruz 15% (7%)
      • Jeb Bush 10% (16%)
      • Marco Rubio 8% (11%)
      • Paul Ryan 7% (12%)
      • Scott Walker 5%
      • Bobby Jindal 4% (4%)
      • Rick Santorum 2% (6%)
      • Someone else/Not sure 14% (10%)
      Among Men
      • Rand Paul 21% (17%)
      • Chris Christie 20% (14%)
      • Ted Cruz 14% (7%)
      • Jeb Bush 10% (16%)
      • Marco Rubio 9% (9%)
      • Paul Ryan 7% (14%)
      • Scott Walker 6%
      • Bobby Jindal 4% (3%)
      • Rick Santorum 2% (7%)
      • Someone else/Not sure 7% (12%)
      Among Women
      • Ted Cruz 16% (7%)
      • Rand Paul 14% (18%)
      • Chris Christie 13% (16%)
      • Jeb Bush 10% (17%)
      • Marco Rubio 8% (13%)
      • Paul Ryan 7% (10%)
      • Scott Walker 5%
      • Bobby Jindal 3% (5%)
      • Rick Santorum 3% (6%)
      • Someone else/Not sure 22% (9%)
      Survey of 450 GOP primary voters was conducted December 5-8, 2013.  The margin of error is +/- 4.6 percentage points. Political ideology: 39% (40%) Somewhat conservative; 33% (29%) Very conservative; 20% (25%) Moderate; 5% (4%) Somewhat liberal; 3% (1%) Very liberal.  Results from the poll conducted May 30 - June 2, 2013 are in parentheses.

      Poll Watch: Monmouth University/Asbury Park Press New Jersey New Jersey 2016 Presidential Survey

      Monmouth University/Asbury Park Press New Jersey 2016 Presidential Poll
      • Chris Christie (R) 46%
      • Hillary Clinton (D) 43%
      • Chris Christie (R) 52%
      • Andrew Cuomo (D) 33%
      Among Democrats
      • Hillary Clinton (D) 74%
      • Chris Christie (R) 19%
      • Andrew Cuomo (D) 62%
      • Chris Christie (R) 27%
      Among Republicans
      • Chris Christie (R) 83%
      • Hillary Clinton (D) 11%
      • Chris Christie (R) 85%
      • Andrew Cuomo (D) 7%
      Among Independents
      • Chris Christie (R) 51%
      • Hillary Clinton (D) 33%
      • Chris Christie (R) 58%
      • Andrew Cuomo (D) 21%
      Among Men 
      • Chris Christie (R) 50%
      • Hillary Clinton (D) 37%
      • Chris Christie (R) 56%
      • Andrew Cuomo (D) 29%
      Among Women
      • Hillary Clinton (D) 48%
      • Chris Christie (R) 42%
      • Chris Christie (R) 48%
      • Andrew Cuomo (D) 36%
      Survey of 698 registered voters was conducted December 4-8, 2013.  The margin of error is +/- 3.7 percentage points.  Party ID: 37% Democrat; 24% Republican; 39% Independent.

      Tuesday, December 10, 2013

      Poll Watch: McClatchy-Marist 2016 Democratic Nomination Survey

      McClatchy-Marist 2016 Democratic Nomination Poll
      • Hillary Clinton 65% (63%)
      • Joe Biden 12% (13%)
      • Elizabeth Warren 9%
      • Andrew Cuomo 3% (6%)
      • Martin O'Malley 1% (1%)
      • Undecided 9% (18%)
      If Hillary Clinton does not run:
      • Joe Biden 45%
      • Elizabeth Warren 25%
      • Andrew Cuomo 11%
      • Martin O'Malley 4%
      Survey of 466 registered Democrats and Democratic-leaning Independents was conducted December 3-5, 2013.  The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted July 15-18, 2013 are in parentheses.

      Poll Watch: McClatchy-Marist 2016 Republican Nomination Survey

      McClatchy-Marist 2016 GOP Nomination Poll
      • Chris Christie 18% (15%)
      • Rand Paul 12% (9%)
      • Paul Ryan 11% (13%)
      • Ted Cruz 10% (7%) 
      • Jeb Bush 10% (10%)
      • Sarah Palin 8%
      • Marco Rubio 7% (12%)
      • Scott Walker 4% (2%)
      • Rick Santorum 4% (2%)
      • Rick Perry 3% (4%)
      • Undecided 13% (25%)
      Among Men
      • Chris Christie 20% (17%)
      • Rand Paul 15% (9%)
      • Ted Cruz 12% (7%)
      • Paul Ryan 9% (12%)
      • Jeb Bush 10% (14%)
      • Sarah Palin 8%
      • Marco Rubio 6% (16%)
      • Scott Walker 4% (2%)
      • Rick Perry 4% (6%)
      • Rick Santorum 1% (1%)
      • Undecided 11% (15%)
      Among Women
      • Chris Christie 16% (13%)
      • Paul Ryan 13% (14%)
      • Jeb Bush 10% (6%)
      • Ted Cruz 9% (6%)
      • Rand Paul 9% (8%)
      • Marco Rubio 8% (8%)
      • Sarah Palin 8% 
      • Rick Santorum 6% (4%)
      • Scott Walker 4% (2%)
      • Rick Perry 1% (2%)
      • Undecided 15% (34%)
      Survey of 419 registered Republicans and GOP-leaning Independents was conducted December 3-5, 2013.  The margin of error is +/- 4.8 percentage points.  Party ID: 62% (65%) Republican; 38% (35%) Independent.  Ideology: 46% (45%) Conservative; 29% (33%) Moderate; 22% (17%) Very conservative; 4% (4%) Liberal; 0% (1%) Very liberal.  Results from the poll conducted July 15-18, 2013 are in parentheses.

      Poll Watch: McClatchy-Marist 2016 National Presidential Survey

      McClatchy-Marist 2016 National Presidential Poll
      • Hillary Clinton (D) 48% [47%] (46%)
      • Chris Christie (R) 45% [41%] (43%)
      • Hillary Clinton (D) 52% [50%] (52%)
      • Marco Rubio (R) 42% [38%] (40%)
      • Hillary Clinton (D) 53% [48%] (54%)
      • Jeb Bush (R) 41% [40%] (38%)
      • Hillary Clinton (D) 55% [50%] (52%)
      • Rand Paul (R) 40% [38%] (41%)
      • Hillary Clinton (D) 56% [53%]
      • Paul Ryan (R) 40% [37%]
      • Hillary Clinton (D) 58% [52%]
      • Rick Perry (R) 37% [36%]
      • Hillary Clinton (D) 57%
      • Ted Cruz (R) 35%
      • Hillary Clinton (D) 59%
      • Sarah Palin (R) 36%
      Among Independents
      • Hillary Clinton (D) 52% [46%] (43%)
      • Chris Christie (R) 40% [42%] (40%)
      • Hillary Clinton (D) 58% [47%] (49%)
      • Marco Rubio (R) 36% [38%] (37%)
      • Hillary Clinton (D) 61% [44%] (52%)
      • Jeb Bush (R) 31% [42%] (35%)
      • Rand Paul (R) 48% [42%] (45%)
      • Hillary Clinton (D) 46% [41%] (47%)
      • Hillary Clinton (D) 51% [48%]
      • Paul Ryan (R) 41% [37%]
      • Hillary Clinton (D) 53% [46%]
      • Rick Perry (R) 41% [39%]
      • Hillary Clinton (D) 54%
      • Ted Cruz (R) 36%
      • Hillary Clinton (D) 67%
      • Sarah Palin (R) 29%
      Among Moderates
      • Hillary Clinton (D) 52% [46%] (54%)
      • Chris Christie (R) 44% [40%] (35%)
      • Hillary Clinton (D) 61% [53%] (61%)
      • Marco Rubio (R) 33% [32%] (30%)
      • Hillary Clinton (D) 61% [50%] (66%)
      • Jeb Bush (R) 35% [37%] (26%)
      • Hillary Clinton (D) 67% [49%] (61%)
      • Rand Paul (R) 27% [36%] (32%)
      • Hillary Clinton (D) 70% [60%]
      • Paul Ryan (R) 25% [29%]
      • Hillary Clinton (D) 73% [57%]
      • Rick Perry (R) 21% [27%]
      • Hillary Clinton (D) 72%
      • Ted Cruz (R) 19%
      • Hillary Clinton (D) 71%
      • Sarah Palin (R) 24%
      Among Men
      • Chris Christie (R) 52% [41%] (46%)
      • Hillary Clinton (D) 43% [49%] (45%)
      • Hillary Clinton (D) 51% [49%] (46%)
      • Marco Rubio (R) 44% [39%] (46%)
      • Hillary Clinton (D) 51% [51%] (52%)
      • Jeb Bush (R) 45% [39%] (39%)
      • Rand Paul (R) 48% [48%] (47%)
      • Hillary Clinton (D) 47% [38%] (44%)
      • Hillary Clinton (D) 50% [43%]
      • Paul Ryan (R) 48% [45%]
      • Hillary Clinton (D) 50% [41%]
      • Rick Perry (R) 46% [45%]
      • Hillary Clinton (D) 51%
      • Ted Cruz (R) 41%
      • Hillary Clinton (D) 57%
      • Sarah Palin (R) 41%
      Among Women
      • Hillary Clinton (D) 53% [46%] (47%)
      • Chris Christie (R) 39% [41%] (40%)
      • Hillary Clinton (D) 53% [50%] (57%)
      • Marco Rubio (R) 41% [38%] (35%)
      • Hillary Clinton (D) 54% [45%] (56%)
      • Jeb Bush (R) 38% [41%] (37%)
      • Hillary Clinton (D) 62% [62%] (59%)
      • Rand Paul (R) 33% [29%] (36%)
      • Hillary Clinton (D) 62% [63%]
      • Paul Ryan (R) 32% [30%]
      • Hillary Clinton (D) 66% [62%]
      • Rick Perry (R) 28% [28%]
      • Hillary Clinton (D) 63%
      • Ted Cruz (R) 30%
      • Hillary Clinton (D) 62%
      • Sarah Palin (R) 32%
      National survey of 497 registered voters was conducted December 3-5, 2013. The margin of error is +/- 4.4 percentage points. Party ID: 31% [34%] (35%) Democrat; 27% [25%] (28%) Republican; 41% [37%] (35%) Independent.  Results from the poll conducted July 15-18, 2013 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 25-27, 2013 are in parentheses.