Poll Watch: ARG New Hampshire 2012 Republican Primary Survey

ARG New Hampshire 2012 GOP Primary Survey

• Mitt Romney 30% [29%] (32%)
• Rick Perry 13% [2%]
• Ron Paul 12% [4%] (8%)
• Jon Huntsman 10% [0%] (0%)
• Michele Bachmann 7% [12%] (1%)
• Herman Cain 4% [4%] (2%)
• Newt Gingrich 4% [7%] (8%)
• Sarah Palin 4% [8%] (2%)
• Rick Santorum 2% [2%] (0%)
• Buddy Roemer 1% [0%] (0%)
• Gary Johnson 0% [0%] (1%)
• Undecided 12% [18%] (8%)

Among Republicans

• Mitt Romney 35% [33%] (37%)
• Rick Perry 13% [2%]
• Ron Paul 10% [6%] (5%)
• Michele Bachmann 9% [8%] (2%)
• Jon Huntsman 7% [0%] (0%)
• Newt Gingrich 6% [7%] (10%)
• Herman Cain 5% [5%] (1%)
• Rick Santorum 2% [3%] (0%)
• Sarah Palin 1% [7%] (1%)
• Gary Johnson 0% [0%] (2%)
• Buddy Roemer 0% [0%] (0%)
• Undecided 10% [15%] (6%)

Among GOP-Leaning Independents

• Mitt Romney 19% [20%] (20%)
• Jon Huntsman 17% [0%] (0%)
• Ron Paul 15% [10%] (15%)
• Rick Perry 14% [2%]
• Sarah Palin 9% [11%] (7%)
• Buddy Roemer 4% [0%] (0%)
• Herman Cain 3% [2%] (3%)
• Rick Santorum 3% [0%] (0%)
• Newt Gingrich 2% [6%] (3%)
• Michele Bachmann 2% [21%] (0%)
• Gary Johnson 0% [1%] (0%)
• Undecided 13% [15%] (7%)

Among Tea Party Supporters (49%)

• Rick Perry 23% [4%]
• Mitt Romney 21% [21%] (30%)
• Michele Bachmann 13% [24%] (2%)
• Ron Paul 10% [5%] (9%)
• Newt Gingrich 7% [9%] (11%)
• Herman Cain 7% [5%] (2%)
• Rick Santorum 4% [2%] (0%)
• Sarah Palin 3% [9%] (2%)
• Jon Huntsman 1% [0%] (0%)
• Buddy Roemer 1% [0%] (0%)
• Gary Johnson 0% [0%] (2%)
• Undecided 10% [15%] (9%)

Among Non-Tea Party Republican Primary Voters (51%)

• Mitt Romney 38% [36%] (33%)
• Jon Huntsman 19% [0%] (0%)
• Ron Paul 13% [4%] (7%)
• Rick Perry 4% [0%]
• Sarah Palin 4% [8%] (2%)
• Herman Cain 2% [3%] (1%)
• Newt Gingrich 2% [5%] (5%)
• Buddy Roemer 2% [0%] (0%)
• Michele Bachmann 1% [2%] (1%)
• Rick Santorum 1% [2%] (0%)
• Gary Johnson 0% [1%] (1%)
• Undecided 11% [14%] (5%)

Survey of 600 likely Republican primary voters (401 Republicans and 199 independents) was conducted September 16-21, 2011. The margin of error is ± 4 percentage points. Party ID breakdown: 67% [70%] Republican; 33% [30%] Independent.  Results from the poll conducted July 9-13, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 16-21, 2011 are in parentheses.