Tuesday, September 27, 2011

Poll Watch: Gallup 2012 GOP Favorability Survey


Gallup 2012 GOP Favorability Survey

Among Republicans/GOP-Leaning Independents Who Recognize Candidate


Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}
  • Rudy Giuliani 79% {81%} (77%) [74%] {75%} (77%) [76%] {78%} (78%) [78%] {79%} / 16% {15%} (18%) [20%] {19%} (18%) [16%] {16%} (16%) [17%] {16%} {+63%}
  • Herman Cain 77% {76%} (73%) [73%] {74%} (74%) [74%] {77%} (76%) [77%] {72%} / 15% {15%} (13%) [14%] {13%} (14%) [13%] {13%} (13%) [12%] {16%} {+62%}
  • Rick Perry 71% {74%} (73%) [73%] {71%} (69%) [70%] {70%} (74%) [73%] {67%} / 17% {15%} (16%) [13%] {14%} (15%) [13%] {15%} (15%) [15%] {17%} {+54%}
  • Mitt Romney 72% {74%} (71%) [71%] {70%} (73%) [74%] {72%} (73%) [74%] {73%} / 20% {18%} (20%) [19%] {20%} (19%) [17%] {18%} (18%) [16%] {16%} {+52%}
  • Rick Santorum 65% {65%} (60%) [63%] {62%} (62%) [64%] {62%} (62%) [67%] {69%} / 19% {21%} (22%) [23%] {23%} (20%) [19%] {20%} (20%) [18%] {15%} {+46%}
  • Sarah Palin 66% {67%} (67%) [69%] {69%} (69%) [71%] {69%} (68%) [73%] {73%} / 31% {31%} (30%) [27%] {29%} (28%) [26%] {28%} (28%) [25%] {24%} {+35%}
  • Newt Gingrich 64% {61%} (61%) [61%] {60%} (57%) [53%] {56%} (57%) [56%] {55%} / 30% {31%} (33%) [31%] {34%} (35%) [36%] {34%} (34%) [36%] {36%} {+34%}
  • Michele Bachmann 62% {65%} (64%) [67%] {68%} (67%) [70%] {69%} (64%) [67%] {74%} / 29% {29%} (27%) [24%] {23%} (21%) [20%] {21%} (24%) [20%] {15%} {+33%}
  • Ron Paul 57% {57%} (59%) [61%] {60%} (61%) [63%] {65%} (65%) [61%] {62%} / 32% {34%} (30%) [27%] {28%} (27%) [25%] {24%} (24%) [25%] {25%} {+25%}
  • Jon Huntsman 51% {53%} (53%) [50%] {48%} (50%) [51%] {50%} (55%) [55%] {55%} / 32% {32%} (34%) [34%] {35%} (31%) [27%] {28%} (25%) [24%] {26%} {+19%}
Rudy Giuliani
  • Strongly Favorable 22% {23%} (21%) [19%] {21%} (23%) [22%] {22%} (21%) [22%] {22%}
  • Favorable 57% {58%} (56%) [55%] {54%} (54%) [54%] {56%} (57%) [56%] {57%}
  • Unfavorable 14% {13%} (15%) [16%] {15%} (14%) [13%] {14%} (14%) [14%] {14%}
  • Strongly Unfavorable 2% {2%} (3%) [4%] {4%} (4%) [3%] {2%} (2%) [3%] {2%}
Herman Cain
  • Strongly Favorable 27% {25%} (24%) [26%] {28%} (29%) [26%] {24%} (27%) [29%] {26%}
  • Favorable 50% {51%} (49%) [47%] {46%} (45%) [48%] {53%} (49%) [48%] {46%}
  • Unfavorable 14% {13%} (11%) [12%] {12%} (13%) [12%] {12%} (11%) [10%] {15%}
  • Strongly Unfavorable 1% {2%} (2%) [2%] {1%} (1%) [1%] {1%} (2%) [2%] {1%}
Rick Perry
  • Strongly Favorable 25% {27%} (27%) [29%] {27%} (25%) [25%] {24%} (26%) [26%] {23%}
  • Favorable 46% {47%} (46%) [44%] {44%} (44%) [45%] {46%} (48%) [47%] {44%}
  • Unfavorable 14% {12%} (12%) [10%] {12%} (13%) [11%] {14%} (13%) [12%] {14%}
  • Strongly Unfavorable 3% {3%} (4%) [3%] {2%} (2%) [2%] {1%} (2%) [3%] {3%}
Mitt Romney
  • Strongly Favorable 17% {19%} (19%) [15%] {15%} (18%) [17%] {17%} (18%) [21%] {19%}
  • Favorable 55% {55%} (52%) [56%] {55%} (55%) [57%] {55%} (55%) [53%] {54%}
  • Unfavorable 17% {15%} (17%) [16%] {16%} (15%) [14%] {15%} (15%) [13%] {14%}
  • Strongly Unfavorable 3% {3%} (3%) [3%] {4%} (4%) [3%] {3%} (3%) [3%] {2%}
Rick Santorum
  • Strongly Favorable 13% {12%} (11%) [13%] {13%} (9%) [9%] {9%} (11%) [13%] {13%}
  • Favorable 52% {53%} (49%) [50%] {49%} (53%) [55%] {53%} (51%) [54%] {56%}
  • Unfavorable 17% {19%} (19%) [20%] {20%} (18%) [17%] {16%} (16%) [16%] {14%}
  • Strongly Unfavorable 2% {2%} (3%) [3%] {3%} (2%) [2%] {4%} (4%) [2%] {1%}

Sarah Palin
  • Strongly Favorable 20% {21%} (20%) [21%] {25%} (24%) [24%] {26%} (25%) [26%] {26%}
  • Favorable 46% {46%} (47%) [48%] {44%} (45%) [47%] {43%} (43%) [47%] {47%}
  • Unfavorable 22% {21%} (20%) [19%] {20%} (18%) [17%] {20%} (19%) [17%] {16%}
  • Strongly Unfavorable 9% {10%} (10%) [8%] {9%} (10%) [9%] {8%} (9%) [8%] {8%}
Newt Gingrich
  • Strongly Favorable 16% {15%} (13%) [13%] {15%} (12%) [10%] {9%} (8%) [10%] {11%}
  • Favorable 48% {46%} (48%) [48%] {45%} (45%) [43%] {47%} (49%) [46%] {44%}
  • Unfavorable 24% {25%} (27%) [25%] {26%} (27%) [29%] {27%} (27%) [29%] {29%}
  • Strongly Unfavorable 6% {6%} (6%) [6%] {8%} (8%) [7%] {7%} (7%) [7%] {7%}
Michele Bachmann
  • Strongly Favorable 15% {17%} (17%) [17%] {19%} (21%) [24%] {22%} (20%) [23%] {24%}
  • Favorable 47% {48%} (47%) [50%] {49%} (46%) [46%] {47%} (44%) [44%] {50%}
  • Unfavorable 22% {23%} (21%) [18%] {17%} (16%) [16%] {17%} (18%) [15%] {12%}
  • Strongly Unfavorable 7% {6%} (6%) [6%] {6%} (5%) [4%] {4%} (6%) [5%] {3%}
Ron Paul
  • Strongly Favorable 12% {13%} (12%) [11%] {11%} (14%) [15%] {13%} (13%) [12%] {11%}
  • Favorable 45% {44%} (47%) [50%] {49%} (47%) [48%] {52%} (52%) [49%] {51%}
  • Unfavorable 26% {28%} (25%) [23%] {23%} (22%) [21%] {20%} (20%) [21%] {22%}
  • Strongly Unfavorable 6% {6%} (5%) [4%] {5%} (5%) [4%] {4%} (4%) [4%] {3%}
Jon Huntsman
  • Strongly Favorable 6% {6%} (5%) [5%] {6%} (6%) [7%] {8%} (8%) [6%] {7%}
  • Favorable 45% {47%} (48%) [45%] {42%} (44%) [44%] {42%} (47%) [49%] {48%}
  • Unfavorable 27% {28%} (28%) [28%] {30%} (27%) [24%] {26%} (22%) [20%] {21%}
  • Strongly Unfavorable 5% {4%} (6%) [6%] {5%} (4%) [3%] {2%} (3%) [4%] {5%}
    Positive Intensity Score (Strongly Favorable minus Strongly Unfavorable)
    • Herman Cain +26% {+24%} (+22%) [+24%] {+27%} (+28%) [+25%] {+22%} (+25%) [+27%] {+25%}
    • Rick Perry +22% {+24%} (+24%) [+25%] {+25%} (+22%) [+23%] {+23%} (+24%) [+23%] {+21%}
    • Rudy Giuliani +20% {+21%} (+18%) [+15%] {+17%} (+19%) [+19%] {+20%} (+19%) [+20%] {+20%}
    • Mitt Romney +14% {+15%} (+16%) [+12%] {+11%} (+14%) [+15%] {+14%} (+15%) [18%] {+17%}
    • Sarah Palin +12% {+11%} (+10%) [+13%] {+16%} (+14%) [+15%] {+18%} (+16%) [+18%] {+18%}
    • Rick Santorum +11% {+10%} (+8%) [+10%] {+10%} (+7%) [+6%] {+5%} (+7%) [+11%] {+12%}
    • Newt Gingrich +10% {+10%} (+7%) [+7%] {+7%} (+4%) [+3%] {+2%} (+1%) [+3%] {+4%}
    • Michele Bachmann +8% {+11%} (+10%) [+11%] {+13%} (+16%) [+20%] {+18%} (+14%) [+18%] {+21%}
    • Ron Paul +6% {+7%} (+7%) [+6%] {+6%} (+9%) [+11%] {+9%} (+8%) [+9%] {+8%}
    • Jon Huntsman +1% {+2%} (-1%) [-2%] {+1%} (+2%) [+4%] {+6%} (+5%) [+3%] {+2%}
      Name Recognition
      • Sarah Palin 95% {95%} (97%) [97%] {97%} (97%) [97%] {95%} (96%) [96%] {95%}
      • Rudy Giuliani 89% {90%} (89%) [90%] {91%} (91%) [91%] {90%} (89%) [87%] {86%}
      • Newt Gingrich 85% {86%} (86%) [86%] {85%} (85%) [86%] {85%} (84%) [85%] {85%}
      • Mitt Romney 84% {85%} (86%) [88%] {88%} (86%) [86%] {86%} (84%) [85%] {86%}
      • Michele Bachmann 83% {84%} (84%) [84%] {85%} (83%) [81%] {78%} (76%) [78%] {77%}
      • Ron Paul 80% {82%} (81%) [79%] {78%} (78%) [78%] {78%} (77%) [78%] {77%}
      • Rick Perry 79% {76%} (75%) [74%] {75%} (67%) [59%] {54%} (54%) [56%] {55%}
      • Rick Santorum 53% {53%} (54%) [52%] {52%} (51%) [51%] {51%} (50%) [50%] {49%}
      • Herman Cain 51% {50%} (48%) [48%] {50%} (47%) [45%] {45%} (46%) [47%] {44%}
      • Jon Huntsman 44% {45%} (46%) [46%] {43%} (40%) [38%] {39%} (40%) [40%] {41%}
      Survey Methods
      Results are based on telephone interviews conducted as part of Gallup Daily tracking September 12-25, 2011, with random samples of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia. Questions asking about the 10 potential candidates measured in this research were rotated among randomly selected samples of Republicans each night; over the 14-day period, each candidate was rated by approximately 1,400 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents.

      For the overall ratings of each potential candidate among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, including recognition scores, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.  
       
      Results from the poll conducted September 5-18, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 29 - September 11, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted August 22 - September 4, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 15-28, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 8-21, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted August 1-14, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 25 - August 7, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 18-31, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted July 11-24, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 4-17, 2011 are in curly brackets.

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