Poll Watch: McClatchy-Marist 2012 Presidential Survey

McClatchy-Marist 2012 Presidential Survey

• Rudy Giuliani 49% [43%] {41%}
• Barack Obama 42% [48%] {48%}

• Barack Obama 46% [46%] {46%} (46%) [51%] (44%)
• Mitt Romney 44% [41%] {42%} (45%) [38%] (46%)

• Barack Obama 49% [56%] {56%} (56%) [56%] (52%)
• Sarah Palin 44% [35%] {30%} (34%) [30%] (40%)

• Barack Obama 50% [52%] {48%}
• Rick Perry 41% [33%] {39%}

• Barack Obama 53% [52%] {49%}
• Michele Bachmann 40% [35%] {37%}

Among Democrats

• Barack Obama 79% [83%] {79%}
• Rudy Giuliani 16% [13%] {14%}

• Barack Obama 84% [86%] {86%} (87%) [89%] (85%)
• Sarah Palin 13% [11%] {10%} (6%) [6%] (11%)

• Barack Obama 84% [84%] {87%} (80%) [87%] (81%)
• Mitt Romney 11% [13%] {6%} (13%) [8%] (11%)

• Barack Obama 91% [84%] {89%}
• Michele Bachmann 8% [10%] {2%}

• Barack Obama 91% [84%] {88%}
• Rick Perry 6% [10%] {3%}

Among Republicans

• Mitt Romney 93% [87%] {86%} (83%) [81%] (87%)
• Barack Obama 2% [5%] {6%} (10%) [10%] (6%)

• Rick Perry 87% [74%] {82%}
• Barack Obama 5% [10%] {7%}

• Michele Bachmann 86% [73%] {73%}
• Barack Obama 7% [15%] {9%}

• Rudy Giuliani 84% [77%] {84%}
• Barack Obama 9% [10%] {12%}

• Sarah Palin 81% [60%] {66%} (69%) [66%] (78%)
• Barack Obama 15% [23%] {22%} (20%) [16%] (12%)

Among Independents

• Rudy Giuliani 51% [50%] {38%}
• Barack Obama 37% [41%] {43%}

• Sarah Palin 47% [42%] {28%} (35%) [29%] (35%)
• Barack Obama 43% [48%] {52%} (52%) [57%] (52%)

• Mitt Romney 44% [35%] {39%} (45%) [37%] (47%)
• Barack Obama 40% [41%] {43%} (42%) [47%] (39%)

• Barack Obama 43% [49%] {48%}
• Rick Perry 43% [30%] {35%}

• Barack Obama 48% [46%] {45%}
• Michele Bachmann 38% [34%] {39%}

Among Moderates

• Barack Obama 51% [51%] {60%} (54%) [57%] (53%)
• Mitt Romney 37% [30%] {26%} (35%) [30%] (38%)

• Barack Obama 58% [55%] {52%}
• Rudy Giuliani 35% [36%] {34%}

• Barack Obama 56% [62%] {62%}
• Rick Perry 33% [19%] {23%}

• Barack Obama 61% [63%] {61%}
• Michele Bachmann 30% [19%] {23%}

• Barack Obama 65% [63%] {63%} (67%) [69%] (68%)
• Sarah Palin 30% [26%] {19%} (23%) [17%] (26%)

Among Conservatives

• Rudy Giuliani 79% [68%] {61%}
• Barack Obama 13% [26%] {28%}

• Sarah Palin 74% [64%] {49%} (56%) [58%] (64%)
• Barack Obama 19% [29%] {36%} (31%) [28%] (26%)

• Mitt Romney 74% [67%] {75%} (67%) [65%] (67%)
• Barack Obama 21% [28%] {19%} (23%) [24%] (23%)

• Rick Perry 73% [62%] {70%} 
• Barack Obama 21% [30%] {22%}

• Michele Bachmann 72% [66%] {65%}
• Barack Obama 23% [28%] {22%}

Among Liberals

• Barack Obama 72% [77%] {88%}
• Rudy Giuliani 18% [14%] {11%}

• Barack Obama 78% [93%] {89%} (82%) [85%] (83%)
• Sarah Palin 17% [4%] {10%} (14%) [7%] (13%)

• Barack Obama 74% [78%] {78%} (77%) [85%] (78%)
• Mitt Romney 11% [18%] {19%} (19%) [8%] (13%)

• Barack Obama 87% [83%] {80%}
• Michele Bachmann 10% [13%] {14%}

• Barack Obama 86% [81%] {80%}
• Rick Perry 6% [14%] {13%}

Among Men

• Mitt Romney 51% [46%] {45%} (44%) [41%] (47%)
• Barack Obama 36% [37%] {40%} (50%) [47%] (44%)

• Rudy Giuliani 52% [57%] {41%}
• Barack Obama 40% [35%] {45%}

• Sarah Palin 48% [45%] {28%} (34%) [35%] (40%)
• Barack Obama 46% [46%] {54%} (57%) [52%] (53%)

• Rick Perry 47% [36%] {45%}
• Barack Obama 46% [48%] {41%}

• Barack Obama 51% [47%] {41%}
• Michele Bachmann 43% [38%] {40%}

Among Women

• Rudy Giuliani 46% [33%] {40%}
• Barack Obama 44% [58%] {50%}

• Barack Obama 52% [64%] {58%} (55%) [60%] (50%)
• Sarah Palin 41% [28%] {33%} (34%) [27%] (39%)

• Barack Obama 54% [55%] {52%} (42%) [54%] (44%)
• Mitt Romney 39% [36%] {40%} (45%) [36%] (44%)

• Barack Obama 55% [57%] {55%}
• Michele Bachmann 37% [32%] {35%}

• Barack Obama 54% [57%] {54%}
• Rick Perry 36% [31%] {35%}

Northeast

• Rudy Giuliani 54% [30%] {42%}
• Barack Obama 39% [56%] {52%}

• Barack Obama 45% [48%] {57%} (51%) [54%] (49%)
• Mitt Romney 42% [42%] {28%} (38%) [30%] (43%)

• Barack Obama 49% [67%] {56%} (61%) [59%] (58%)
• Sarah Palin 46% [20%] {32%} (26%) [22%] (36%)

• Barack Obama 50% [57%] {57%}
• Rick Perry 36% [23%] {25%}

• Barack Obama 56% [56%] {58%}
• Michele Bachmann 35% [29%] {22%}

Midwest

• Rudy Giuliani 53% [47%]{42%}
• Barack Obama 35% [43%] {44%}

• Sarah Palin 50% [34%] {28%} (41%) [27%] (39%)
• Barack Obama 41% [53%] {51%} (55%) [63%] (52%)

• Barack Obama 51% [48%] {43%} (47%) [54%] (47%)
• Mitt Romney 41% [39%] {45%} (48%) [38%] (43%)

• Barack Obama 52% [51%] {44%}
• Rick Perry 41% [37%] {42%}

• Barack Obama 57% [50%] {44%}
• Michele Bachmann 39% [36%] {41%}

South

• Mitt Romney 50% [43%] {48%} (49%) [40%] (53%)
• Barack Obama 37% [47%] {41%} (42%) [49%] (36%)

• Rick Perry 50% [39%] {46%}
• Barack Obama 42% [51%] {42%}

• Michele Bachmann 48% [41%] {45%}
• Barack Obama 41% [49%] {41%}

• Barack Obama 48% [46%] {44%}
• Rudy Giuliani 46% [47%] {37%}

• Barack Obama 53% [52%] {57%} (49%) [52%] (45%)
• Sarah Palin 42% [41%] {30%} (37%) [35%] (47%)

West

• Rudy Giuliani 44% [45%] {44%}
• Barack Obama 42% [48%] {54%}

• Barack Obama 52% [55%] {61%} (62%) [54%] (58%)
• Sarah Palin 40% [41%] {32%} (30%) [32%] (32%)

• Barack Obama 55% [42%] {48%} (49%) [48%] (50%)
• Mitt Romney 41% [38%] {44%} (41%) [42%] (38%)

• Barack Obama 62% [50%] {55%}
• Rick Perry 31% [30%] {38%}

• Barack Obama 66% [57%] {57%}
• Michele Bachmann 31% [29%] {33%}

College Graduate

• Rudy Giuliani 51% [44%] {38%}
• Barack Obama 40% [52%] {50%}

• Barack Obama 48% [50%] {50%} (52%)
• Mitt Romney 38% [39%] {42%} (40%) 

• Barack Obama 54% [62%] {57%} (61%)
• Sarah Palin 43% [30%] {27%} (28%)

• Barack Obama 50% [61%] {56%}
• Rick Perry 39% [26%] {35%}

• Barack Obama 56% [60%] {50%}
• Michele Bachmann 37% [29%] {35%}

Not a College Graduate

• Mitt Romney 49% [41%] {43%} (48%)
• Barack Obama 44% [45%] {43%} (42%)

• Rudy Giuliani 48% [44%] {43%}
• Barack Obama 44% [45%] {46%}

• Barack Obama 46% [52%] {55%} (52%)
• Sarah Palin 45% [38%] {34%} (39%)

• Barack Obama 50% [49%] {48%}
• Michele Bachmann 43% [39%] {40%}

• Barack Obama 51% [49%] {42%}
• Rick Perry 42% [38%] {43%}

Household Income $50K+

• Rudy Giuliani 52% [48%] {40%}
• Barack Obama 43% [45%] {52%}

• Mitt Romney 48% [38%] {45%}
• Barack Obama 42% [49%] {49%}

• Barack Obama 47% [57%] {53%}
• Rick Perry 45% [29%] {37%}

• Barack Obama 52% [52%] {59%}
• Sarah Palin 44% [39%] {28%}

• Barack Obama 52% [54%] {53%}
• Michele Bachmann 43% [32%] {35%}

Household Income Less Than $50K

• Barack Obama 46% [58%] {48%}
• Rudy Giuliani 43% [34%] {43%}

• Barack Obama 51% [64%] {56%}
• Sarah Palin 42% [27%] {33%}

• Barack Obama 50% [47%] {41%}
• Mitt Romney 40% [41%] {42%}

• Barack Obama 55% [51%] {41%}
• Rick Perry 35% [37%] {42%}

• Barack Obama 56% [53%] {44%}
• Michele Bachmann 35% [36%] {41%}

Among Whites

• Rudy Giuliani 58% [48%] {50%}
• Barack Obama 34% [42%] {43%}

• Sarah Palin 52% [49%] {37%}
• Barack Obama 42% [40%] {51%}

• Mitt Romney 50% [48%] {47%}
• Barack Obama 41% [40%] {44%}

• Rick Perry 50% [37%] {44%}
• Barack Obama 43% [48%] {44%}

• Michele Bachmann 47% [39%] {43%}
• Barack Obama 45% [48%] {46%}

Among Non-Whites

• Barack Obama 55% [66%] {53%}
• Mitt Romney 30% [21%] {29%}

• Barack Obama 61% [63%] {61%}
• Rudy Giuliani 29% [31%] {21%}

• Barack Obama 67% [71%] {69%}
• Sarah Palin 26% [24%] {16%}

• Barack Obama 71% [67%] {56%}
• Michele Bachmann 23% [22%] {20%}

• Barack Obama 68% [68%] {61%}
• Rick Perry 20% [22%] {23%}

Do you definitely plan to vote for Barack Obama for re-election as president, or do you definitely plan to vote against him?

• Definitely for Obama 36% [40%] {36%}
• Definitely against Obama 49% [40%] {43%}

Among Independents

• Definitely for Obama 28%
• Definitely against Obama 53%

Regardless of whom you support, who do you think will win the 2012 presidential election: President Obama or the Republican candidate?

• Republican candidate 52%
• Barack Obama 38%

Do you consider yourself to be a supporter of the Tea Party Movement?

• Strongly support Tea Party 8%
• Support Tea Party 19%
• Do not support Tea Party 64%

Survey of 825 registered voters, including a subsample of 317 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, was conducted September 13-14, 2011. The margin of error is ± 3.5 percentage points among all voters; ± 5.5 percentage points among Republicans and GOP-leaning independents. Party ID breakdown: 34% [37%] {34%} (35%) [35%] (37%) Democrat; 26% [25%] {27%} (27%) [28%] (28%) Republican; 39% [37%] {38%} (36%) [36%] (33%) Independent. Political ideology: 42% [43%] {36%} (39%) [34%] (34%) Moderate; 38% [37%] {43%} (40%) [42%] (46%) Conservative; 20% [20%] {21%} (21%) [23%] (19%) Liberal.  Results from the poll conducted August 2-4, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted June 15-23, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 10-14, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted January 6-10, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 2-8, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted November 15-18, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 14-16, 2010 are in curly brackets.