Wednesday, September 21, 2011

Poll Watch: McClatchy-Marist 2012 Presidential Survey

McClatchy-Marist 2012 Presidential Survey
  • Rudy Giuliani 49% [43%] {41%}
  • Barack Obama 42% [48%] {48%}
  • Barack Obama 46% [46%] {46%} (46%) [51%] (44%)
  • Mitt Romney 44% [41%] {42%} (45%) [38%] (46%)
  • Barack Obama 49% [56%] {56%} (56%) [56%] (52%)
  • Sarah Palin 44% [35%] {30%} (34%) [30%] (40%)
  • Barack Obama 50% [52%] {48%}
  • Rick Perry 41% [33%] {39%}
  • Barack Obama 53% [52%] {49%}
  • Michele Bachmann 40% [35%] {37%}
Among Democrats
  • Barack Obama 79% [83%] {79%}
  • Rudy Giuliani 16% [13%] {14%}
  • Barack Obama 84% [86%] {86%} (87%) [89%] (85%)
  • Sarah Palin 13% [11%] {10%} (6%) [6%] (11%)
  • Barack Obama 84% [84%] {87%} (80%) [87%] (81%)
  • Mitt Romney 11% [13%] {6%} (13%) [8%] (11%)
  • Barack Obama 91% [84%] {89%}
  • Michele Bachmann 8% [10%] {2%}
  • Barack Obama 91% [84%] {88%}
  • Rick Perry 6% [10%] {3%}
Among Republicans
  • Mitt Romney 93% [87%] {86%} (83%) [81%] (87%)
  • Barack Obama 2% [5%] {6%} (10%) [10%] (6%)
  • Rick Perry 87% [74%] {82%}
  • Barack Obama 5% [10%] {7%}
  • Michele Bachmann 86% [73%] {73%}
  • Barack Obama 7% [15%] {9%}
  • Rudy Giuliani 84% [77%] {84%}
  • Barack Obama 9% [10%] {12%}
  • Sarah Palin 81% [60%] {66%} (69%) [66%] (78%)
  • Barack Obama 15% [23%] {22%} (20%) [16%] (12%)
Among Independents
  • Rudy Giuliani 51% [50%] {38%}
  • Barack Obama 37% [41%] {43%}
  • Sarah Palin 47% [42%] {28%} (35%) [29%] (35%)
  • Barack Obama 43% [48%] {52%} (52%) [57%] (52%)
  • Mitt Romney 44% [35%] {39%} (45%) [37%] (47%)
  • Barack Obama 40% [41%] {43%(42%) [47%] (39%)
  • Barack Obama 43% [49%] {48%}
  • Rick Perry 43% [30%] {35%}
  • Barack Obama 48% [46%] {45%}
  • Michele Bachmann 38% [34%] {39%}
Among Moderates
  • Barack Obama 51% [51%] {60%} (54%) [57%] (53%)
  • Mitt Romney 37% [30%] {26%} (35%) [30%] (38%)
  • Barack Obama 58% [55%] {52%}
  • Rudy Giuliani 35% [36%] {34%}
  • Barack Obama 56% [62%] {62%}
  • Rick Perry 33% [19%] {23%}
  • Barack Obama 61% [63%] {61%}
  • Michele Bachmann 30% [19%] {23%}
  • Barack Obama 65% [63%] {63%} (67%) [69%] (68%)
  • Sarah Palin 30% [26%] {19%} (23%) [17%] (26%)
Among Conservatives
  • Rudy Giuliani 79% [68%] {61%}
  • Barack Obama 13% [26%] {28%}
  • Sarah Palin 74% [64%] {49%} (56%) [58%] (64%)
  • Barack Obama 19% [29%] {36%} (31%) [28%] (26%)
  • Mitt Romney 74% [67%] {75%} (67%) [65%] (67%)
  • Barack Obama 21% [28%] {19%} (23%) [24%] (23%)
  • Rick Perry 73% [62%] {70%} 
  • Barack Obama 21% [30%] {22%}
  • Michele Bachmann 72% [66%] {65%}
  • Barack Obama 23% [28%] {22%}
Among Liberals
  • Barack Obama 72% [77%] {88%}
  • Rudy Giuliani 18% [14%] {11%}
  • Barack Obama 78% [93%] {89%} (82%) [85%] (83%)
  • Sarah Palin 17% [4%] {10%} (14%) [7%] (13%)
  • Barack Obama 74% [78%] {78%} (77%) [85%] (78%)
  • Mitt Romney 11% [18%] {19%} (19%) [8%] (13%)
  • Barack Obama 87% [83%] {80%}
  • Michele Bachmann 10% [13%] {14%}
  • Barack Obama 86% [81%] {80%}
  • Rick Perry 6% [14%] {13%}
Among Men
  • Mitt Romney 51% [46%] {45%} (44%) [41%] (47%)
  • Barack Obama 36% [37%] {40%} (50%) [47%] (44%)
  • Rudy Giuliani 52% [57%] {41%}
  • Barack Obama 40% [35%] {45%}
  • Sarah Palin 48% [45%] {28%} (34%) [35%] (40%)
  • Barack Obama 46% [46%] {54%} (57%) [52%] (53%)
  • Rick Perry 47% [36%] {45%}
  • Barack Obama 46% [48%] {41%}
  • Barack Obama 51% [47%] {41%}
  • Michele Bachmann 43% [38%] {40%}
Among Women
  • Rudy Giuliani 46% [33%] {40%}
  • Barack Obama 44% [58%] {50%}
  • Barack Obama 52% [64%] {58%} (55%) [60%] (50%)
  • Sarah Palin 41% [28%] {33%} (34%) [27%] (39%)
  • Barack Obama 54% [55%] {52%} (42%) [54%] (44%)
  • Mitt Romney 39% [36%] {40%} (45%) [36%] (44%)
  • Barack Obama 55% [57%] {55%}
  • Michele Bachmann 37% [32%] {35%}
  • Barack Obama 54% [57%] {54%}
  • Rick Perry 36% [31%] {35%}
Northeast
  • Rudy Giuliani 54% [30%] {42%}
  • Barack Obama 39% [56%] {52%}
  • Barack Obama 45% [48%] {57%} (51%) [54%] (49%)
  • Mitt Romney 42% [42%] {28%} (38%) [30%] (43%)
  • Barack Obama 49% [67%] {56%} (61%) [59%] (58%)
  • Sarah Palin 46% [20%] {32%} (26%) [22%] (36%)
  • Barack Obama 50% [57%] {57%}
  • Rick Perry 36% [23%] {25%}
  • Barack Obama 56% [56%] {58%}
  • Michele Bachmann 35% [29%] {22%}
Midwest
  • Rudy Giuliani 53% [47%]{42%}
  • Barack Obama 35% [43%] {44%}
  • Sarah Palin 50% [34%] {28%} (41%) [27%] (39%)
  • Barack Obama 41% [53%] {51%} (55%) [63%] (52%)
  • Barack Obama 51% [48%] {43%} (47%) [54%] (47%)
  • Mitt Romney 41% [39%] {45%} (48%) [38%] (43%)
  • Barack Obama 52% [51%] {44%}
  • Rick Perry 41% [37%] {42%}
  • Barack Obama 57% [50%] {44%}
  • Michele Bachmann 39% [36%] {41%}
South
  • Mitt Romney 50% [43%] {48%} (49%) [40%] (53%)
  • Barack Obama 37% [47%] {41%} (42%) [49%] (36%)
  • Rick Perry 50% [39%] {46%}
  • Barack Obama 42% [51%] {42%}
  • Michele Bachmann 48% [41%] {45%}
  • Barack Obama 41% [49%] {41%}
  • Barack Obama 48% [46%] {44%}
  • Rudy Giuliani 46% [47%] {37%}
  • Barack Obama 53% [52%] {57%} (49%) [52%] (45%)
  • Sarah Palin 42% [41%] {30%} (37%) [35%] (47%)
West
  • Rudy Giuliani 44% [45%] {44%}
  • Barack Obama 42% [48%] {54%}
  • Barack Obama 52% [55%] {61%} (62%) [54%] (58%)
  • Sarah Palin 40% [41%] {32%} (30%) [32%] (32%)
  • Barack Obama 55% [42%] {48%} (49%) [48%] (50%)
  • Mitt Romney 41% [38%] {44%} (41%) [42%] (38%)
  • Barack Obama 62% [50%] {55%}
  • Rick Perry 31% [30%] {38%}
  • Barack Obama 66% [57%] {57%}
  • Michele Bachmann 31% [29%] {33%}
College Graduate
  • Rudy Giuliani 51% [44%] {38%}
  • Barack Obama 40% [52%] {50%}
  • Barack Obama 48% [50%] {50%} (52%)
  • Mitt Romney 38% [39%] {42%} (40%) 
  • Barack Obama 54% [62%] {57%} (61%)
  • Sarah Palin 43% [30%] {27%} (28%)
  • Barack Obama 50% [61%] {56%}
  • Rick Perry 39% [26%] {35%}
  • Barack Obama 56% [60%] {50%}
  • Michele Bachmann 37% [29%] {35%}
Not a College Graduate
  • Mitt Romney 49% [41%] {43%} (48%)
  • Barack Obama 44% [45%] {43%} (42%)
  • Rudy Giuliani 48% [44%] {43%}
  • Barack Obama 44% [45%] {46%}
  • Barack Obama 46% [52%] {55%} (52%)
  • Sarah Palin 45% [38%] {34%} (39%)
  • Barack Obama 50% [49%] {48%}
  • Michele Bachmann 43% [39%] {40%}
  • Barack Obama 51% [49%] {42%}
  • Rick Perry 42% [38%] {43%}
Household Income $50K+
  • Rudy Giuliani 52% [48%] {40%}
  • Barack Obama 43% [45%] {52%}
  • Mitt Romney 48% [38%] {45%}
  • Barack Obama 42% [49%] {49%}
  • Barack Obama 47% [57%] {53%}
  • Rick Perry 45% [29%] {37%}
  • Barack Obama 52% [52%] {59%}
  • Sarah Palin 44% [39%] {28%}
  • Barack Obama 52% [54%] {53%}
  • Michele Bachmann 43% [32%] {35%}
Household Income Less Than $50K
  • Barack Obama 46% [58%] {48%}
  • Rudy Giuliani 43% [34%] {43%}
  • Barack Obama 51% [64%] {56%}
  • Sarah Palin 42% [27%] {33%}
  • Barack Obama 50% [47%] {41%}
  • Mitt Romney 40% [41%] {42%}
  • Barack Obama 55% [51%] {41%}
  • Rick Perry 35% [37%] {42%}
  • Barack Obama 56% [53%] {44%}
  • Michele Bachmann 35% [36%] {41%}
Among Whites
  • Rudy Giuliani 58% [48%] {50%}
  • Barack Obama 34% [42%] {43%}
  • Sarah Palin 52% [49%] {37%}
  • Barack Obama 42% [40%] {51%}
  • Mitt Romney 50% [48%] {47%}
  • Barack Obama 41% [40%] {44%}
  • Rick Perry 50% [37%] {44%}
  • Barack Obama 43% [48%] {44%}
  • Michele Bachmann 47% [39%] {43%}
  • Barack Obama 45% [48%] {46%}
Among Non-Whites
  • Barack Obama 55% [66%] {53%}
  • Mitt Romney 30% [21%] {29%}
  • Barack Obama 61% [63%] {61%}
  • Rudy Giuliani 29% [31%] {21%}
  • Barack Obama 67% [71%] {69%}
  • Sarah Palin 26% [24%] {16%}
  • Barack Obama 71% [67%] {56%}
  • Michele Bachmann 23% [22%] {20%}
  • Barack Obama 68% [68%] {61%}
  • Rick Perry 20% [22%] {23%}
Do you definitely plan to vote for Barack Obama for re-election as president, or do you definitely plan to vote against him?
  • Definitely for Obama 36% [40%] {36%}
  • Definitely against Obama 49% [40%] {43%}
Among Independents
  • Definitely for Obama 28%
  • Definitely against Obama 53%
Regardless of whom you support, who do you think will win the 2012 presidential election: President Obama or the Republican candidate?
  • Republican candidate 52%
  • Barack Obama 38%
Do you consider yourself to be a supporter of the Tea Party Movement?
  • Strongly support Tea Party 8%
  • Support Tea Party 19%
  • Do not support Tea Party 64%
Survey of 825 registered voters, including a subsample of 317 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, was conducted September 13-14, 2011. The margin of error is ± 3.5 percentage points among all voters; ± 5.5 percentage points among Republicans and GOP-leaning independents. Party ID breakdown: 34% [37%] {34%} (35%) [35%] (37%) Democrat; 26% [25%] {27%} (27%) [28%] (28%) Republican; 39% [37%] {38%} (36%) [36%] (33%) Independent. Political ideology: 42% [43%] {36%} (39%) [34%] (34%) Moderate; 38% [37%] {43%} (40%) [42%] (46%) Conservative; 20% [20%] {21%} (21%) [23%] (19%) Liberal.  Results from the poll conducted August 2-4, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted June 15-23, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 10-14, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted January 6-10, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted December 2-8, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted November 15-18, 2010 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 14-16, 2010 are in curly brackets.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Perry does not do well with women in this poll...