Tuesday, September 20, 2011

Poll Watch: Gallup 2012 GOP Favorability Survey

Gallup 2012 GOP Favorability Survey

Among Republicans/GOP-Leaning Independents Who Recognize Candidate


Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}
  • Rudy Giuliani 81% (77%) [74%] {75%} (77%) [76%] {78%} (78%) [78%] {79%} / 15% (18%) [20%] {19%} (18%) [16%] {16%} (16%) [17%] {16%} {+66%}
  • Herman Cain 76% (73%) [73%] {74%} (74%) [74%] {77%} (76%) [77%] {72%} / 15% (13%) [14%] {13%} (14%) [13%] {13%} (13%) [12%] {16%} {+61%}
  • Rick Perry 74% (73%) [73%] {71%} (69%) [70%] {70%} (74%) [73%] {67%} / 15% (16%) [13%] {14%} (15%) [13%] {15%} (15%) [15%] {17%} {+59%}
  • Mitt Romney 74% (71%) [71%] {70%} (73%) [74%] {72%} (73%) [74%] {73%} / 18% (20%) [19%] {20%} (19%) [17%] {18%} (18%) [16%] {16%} {+56%}
  • Rick Santorum 65% (60%) [63%] {62%} (62%) [64%] {62%} (62%) [67%] {69%} / 21% (22%) [23%] {23%} (20%) [19%] {20%} (20%) [18%] {15%} {+44%}
  • Michele Bachmann 65% (64%) [67%] {68%} (67%) [70%] {69%} (64%) [67%] {74%} / 29% (27%) [24%] {23%} (21%) [20%] {21%} (24%) [20%] {15%} {+36%}
  • Sarah Palin 67% (67%) [69%] {69%} (69%) [71%] {69%} (68%) [73%] {73%} / 31% (30%) [27%] {29%} (28%) [26%] {28%} (28%) [25%] {24%} {+36%}
  • Newt Gingrich 61% (61%) [61%] {60%} (57%) [53%] {56%} (57%) [56%] {55%} / 31% (33%) [31%] {34%} (35%) [36%] {34%} (34%) [36%] {36%} {+30%}
  • Ron Paul 57% (59%) [61%] {60%} (61%) [63%] {65%} (65%) [61%] {62%} / 34% (30%) [27%] {28%} (27%) [25%] {24%} (24%) [25%] {25%} {+23%}
  • Jon Huntsman 53% (53%) [50%] {48%} (50%) [51%] {50%} (55%) [55%] {55%} / 32% (34%) [34%] {35%} (31%) [27%] {28%} (25%) [24%] {26%} {+21%}
Rudy Giuliani
  • Strongly Favorable 23% (21%) [19%] {21%} (23%) [22%] {22%} (21%) [22%] {22%}
  • Favorable 58% (56%) [55%] {54%} (54%) [54%] {56%} (57%) [56%] {57%}
  • Unfavorable 13% (15%) [16%] {15%} (14%) [13%] {14%} (14%) [14%] {14%}
  • Strongly Unfavorable 2% (3%) [4%] {4%} (4%) [3%] {2%} (2%) [3%] {2%}
Herman Cain
  • Strongly Favorable 25% (24%) [26%] {28%} (29%) [26%] {24%} (27%) [29%] {26%}
  • Favorable 51% (49%) [47%] {46%} (45%) [48%] {53%} (49%) [48%] {46%}
  • Unfavorable 13% (11%) [12%] {12%} (13%) [12%] {12%} (11%) [10%] {15%}
  • Strongly Unfavorable 2% (2%) [2%] {1%} (1%) [1%] {1%} (2%) [2%] {1%}
Rick Perry
  • Strongly Favorable 27% (27%) [29%] {27%} (25%) [25%] {24%} (26%) [26%] {23%}
  • Favorable 47% (46%) [44%] {44%} (44%) [45%] {46%} (48%) [47%] {44%}
  • Unfavorable 12% (12%) [10%] {12%} (13%) [11%] {14%} (13%) [12%] {14%}
  • Strongly Unfavorable 3% (4%) [3%] {2%} (2%) [2%] {1%} (2%) [3%] {3%}
Mitt Romney
  • Strongly Favorable 19% (19%) [15%] {15%} (18%) [17%] {17%} (18%) [21%] {19%}
  • Favorable 55% (52%) [56%] {55%} (55%) [57%] {55%} (55%) [53%] {54%}
  • Unfavorable 15% (17%) [16%] {16%} (15%) [14%] {15%} (15%) [13%] {14%}
  • Strongly Unfavorable 3% (3%) [3%] {4%} (4%) [3%] {3%} (3%) [3%] {2%}
Rick Santorum
  • Strongly Favorable 12% (11%) [13%] {13%} (9%) [9%] {9%} (11%) [13%] {13%}
  • Favorable 53% (49%) [50%] {49%} (53%) [55%] {53%} (51%) [54%] {56%}
  • Unfavorable 19% (19%) [20%] {20%} (18%) [17%] {16%} (16%) [16%] {14%}
  • Strongly Unfavorable 2% (3%) [3%] {3%} (2%) [2%] {4%} (4%) [2%] {1%}
Michele Bachmann
  • Strongly Favorable 17% (17%) [17%] {19%} (21%) [24%] {22%} (20%) [23%] {24%}
  • Favorable 48% (47%) [50%] {49%} (46%) [46%] {47%} (44%) [44%] {50%}
  • Unfavorable 23% (21%) [18%] {17%} (16%) [16%] {17%} (18%) [15%] {12%}
  • Strongly Unfavorable 6% (6%) [6%] {6%} (5%) [4%] {4%} (6%) [5%] {3%}
Sarah Palin
  • Strongly Favorable 21% (20%) [21%] {25%} (24%) [24%] {26%} (25%) [26%] {26%}
  • Favorable 46% (47%) [48%] {44%} (45%) [47%] {43%} (43%) [47%] {47%}
  • Unfavorable 21% (20%) [19%] {20%} (18%) [17%] {20%} (19%) [17%] {16%}
  • Strongly Unfavorable 10% (10%) [8%] {9%} (10%) [9%] {8%} (9%) [8%] {8%}
Newt Gingrich
  • Strongly Favorable 15% (13%) [13%] {15%} (12%) [10%] {9%} (8%) [10%] {11%}
  • Favorable 46% (48%) [48%] {45%} (45%) [43%] {47%} (49%) [46%] {44%}
  • Unfavorable 25% (27%) [25%] {26%} (27%) [29%] {27%} (27%) [29%] {29%}
  • Strongly Unfavorable 6% (6%) [6%] {8%} (8%) [7%] {7%} (7%) [7%] {7%}
Ron Paul
  • Strongly Favorable 13% (12%) [11%] {11%} (14%) [15%] {13%} (13%) [12%] {11%}
  • Favorable 44% (47%) [50%] {49%} (47%) [48%] {52%} (52%) [49%] {51%}
  • Unfavorable 28% (25%) [23%] {23%} (22%) [21%] {20%} (20%) [21%] {22%}
  • Strongly Unfavorable 6% (5%) [4%] {5%} (5%) [4%] {4%} (4%) [4%] {3%}
Jon Huntsman
  • Strongly Favorable 6% (5%) [5%] {6%} (6%) [7%] {8%} (8%) [6%] {7%}
  • Favorable 47% (48%) [45%] {42%} (44%) [44%] {42%} (47%) [49%] {48%}
  • Unfavorable 28% (28%) [28%] {30%} (27%) [24%] {26%} (22%) [20%] {21%}
  • Strongly Unfavorable 4% (6%) [6%] {5%} (4%) [3%] {2%} (3%) [4%] {5%}
    Positive Intensity Score (Strongly Favorable minus Strongly Unfavorable)
    • Herman Cain +24% (+22%) [+24%] {+27%} (+28%) [+25%] {+22%} (+25%) [+27%] {+25%}
    • Rick Perry +24% (+24%) [+25%] {+25%} (+22%) [+23%] {+23%} (+24%) [+23%] {+21%}
    • Rudy Giuliani +21% (+18%) [+15%] {+17%} (+19%) [+19%] {+20%} (+19%) [+20%] {+20%}
    • Mitt Romney +15% (+16%) [+12%] {+11%} (+14%) [+15%] {+14%} (+15%) [18%] {+17%}
    • Michele Bachmann +11% (+10%) [+11%] {+13%} (+16%) [+20%] {+18%} (+14%) [+18%] {+21%}
    • Sarah Palin +11% (+10%) [+13%] {+16%} (+14%) [+15%] {+18%} (+16%) [+18%] {+18%}
    • Newt Gingrich +10% (+7%) [+7%] {+7%} (+4%) [+3%] {+2%} (+1%) [+3%] {+4%}
    • Rick Santorum +10% (+8%) [+10%] {+10%} (+7%) [+6%] {+5%} (+7%) [+11%] {+12%}
    • Ron Paul +7% (+7%) [+6%] {+6%} (+9%) [+11%] {+9%} (+8%) [+9%] {+8%}
    • Jon Huntsman +2% (-1%) [-2%] {+1%} (+2%) [+4%] {+6%} (+5%) [+3%] {+2%}
      Name Recognition
      • Sarah Palin 95% (97%) [97%] {97%} (97%) [97%] {95%} (96%) [96%] {95%}
      • Rudy Giuliani 90% (89%) [90%] {91%} (91%) [91%] {90%} (89%) [87%] {86%}
      • Newt Gingrich 86% (86%) [86%] {85%} (85%) [86%] {85%} (84%) [85%] {85%}
      • Mitt Romney 85% (86%) [88%] {88%} (86%) [86%] {86%} (84%) [85%] {86%}
      • Michele Bachmann 84% (84%) [84%] {85%} (83%) [81%] {78%} (76%) [78%] {77%}
      • Ron Paul 82% (81%) [79%] {78%} (78%) [78%] {78%} (77%) [78%] {77%}
      • Rick Perry 76% (75%) [74%] {75%} (67%) [59%] {54%} (54%) [56%] {55%}
      • Rick Santorum 53% (54%) [52%] {52%} (51%) [51%] {51%} (50%) [50%] {49%}
      • Herman Cain 50% (48%) [48%] {50%} (47%) [45%] {45%} (46%) [47%] {44%}
      • Jon Huntsman 45% (46%) [46%] {43%} (40%) [38%] {39%} (40%) [40%] {41%}
      Survey Methods
      Results are based on telephone interviews conducted as part of Gallup Daily tracking September 5-18, 2011, with random samples of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia. Questions asking about the 10 potential candidates measured in this research were rotated among randomly selected samples of Republicans each night; over the 14-day period (with no interviewing on Labor Day, Sep. 5), each candidate was rated by a minimum of 1,400 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents.

      For the overall ratings of each potential candidate among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, including recognition scores, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.  
       
      Results from the poll conducted August 29 - September 11, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted August 22 - September 4, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 15-28, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 8-21, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted August 1-14, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 25 - August 7, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 18-31, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted July 11-24, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 4-17, 2011 are in curly brackets.

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