Friday, September 16, 2011

Poll Watch: PPP (D) North Carolina Survey on the Tea Party

PPP (D) North Carolina Survey on the Tea Party

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the Tea Party?
  • Favorable 40%
  • Unfavorable 48%
Among Democrats
  • Favorable 13%
  • Unfavorable 75%
Among Republicans
  • Favorable 68%
  • Unfavorable 18%
Among Independents
  • Favorable 55%
  • Unfavorable 38%
Among Men
  • Favorable 47%
  • Unfavorable 46%
Among Women
  • Favorable 34%
  • Unfavorable 50%
Very Conservative
  • Favorable 80%
  • Unfavorable 4%
Somewhat Conservative
  • Favorable 63%
  • Unfavorable 22%
Moderate
  • Favorable 24%
  • Unfavorable 62%
Somewhat Liberal
  • Favorable 4%
  • Unfavorable 90%
Very Liberal
  • Favorable 6%
  • Unfavorable 89%
Survey of 520 North Carolina voters was conducted September 1-4, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 4.3 percentage points. Party ID breakdown: 46% Democrat; 34% Republican; 19% Independent/Other. Political ideology: 28% Moderate; 22% Somewhat conservative; 22% Very conservative; 16% Somewhat liberal; 11% Very liberal.

Inside the numbers:
We're finding in swing state after swing state after swing state that the Tea Party brand is probably not one Republican candidates want to embrace next year, at least if they want to win. It's not a turnoff with independent voters in North Carolina but where it hurts is with conservative Democrats. A Republican generally needs to win in the neighborhood of 25% of the Democratic vote to be successful statewide- but only 13% of Democrats respond positively to the Tea Party label while 75% consider it a negative. Just another data point showing that movement may have peaked in 2010.

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