Monday, September 26, 2011

Poll Watch: CNN/ORC 2012 Republican Nomination Survey

CNN/ORC 2012 Republican Nomination Survey 
  • Rick Perry 28% (30%) {27%} [15%] (14%)
  • Mitt Romney 21% (18%) {14%} [17%] (16%)
  • Newt Gingrich 10% (5%) {6%} [5%] (4%)
  • Herman Cain 7% (5%) {2%} [4%] (6%)
  • Sarah Palin 7% (15%) {10%} [12%] (13%)
  • Ron Paul 7% (12%) {6%} [12%] (8%)
  • Michele Bachmann 4% (4%) {9%} [7%] (12%)
  • Rick Santorum 3% (2%) {1%} [2%] (2%)
  • Jon Huntsman 1% (2%) {1%} [4%] (1%)
  • Someone else (vol.) 3% (2%) {3%} [2%] (1%)
  • None/No one (vol.) 4% (4%) {5%} [4%] (8%)
  • No opinion 2% (2%) {3%} [2%] (1%)
Among Republicans (MoE: +/-6.0%)
  • Rick Perry 33% (35%) {29%} [21%] (15%)
  • Mitt Romney 22% (17%) {16%} [17%] (18%)
  • Newt Gingrich 8% (7%) {3%} [4%] (4%)
  • Herman Cain 8% (4%) {2%} [3%] (4%)
  • Ron Paul 6% (6%) {5%} [10%] (8%)
  • Michele Bachmann 5% (6%) {11%} [6%] (9%)
  • Sarah Palin 5% (16%) {8%} [15%] (14%)
  • Rick Santorum 2% (2%) {1%} [2%] (2%)
  • Jon Huntsman 0% (2%) {2%} [4%] (1%)
Among GOP-Leaning Independents (MoE: +/-7.0%)
  • Rick Perry 22% (23%) {26%} [7%] (14%)
  • Mitt Romney 20% (19%) {13%} [16%] (12%)
  • Newt Gingrich 13% (3%) {9%} [6%] (4%)
  • Sarah Palin 11% (13%) {14%} [9%] (10%)
  • Ron Paul 8% (19%) {6%} [14%] (9%)
  • Herman Cain 7% (6%) {3%} [6%] (8%)
  • Michele Bachmann 4% (2%) {6%} [7%] (15%)
  • Rick Santorum 4% (1%) {1%} [2%] (0%)
  • Jon Huntsman 3% (3%) {1%} [4%] (0%)
Tea Party Supporter (MoE: +/-6.5%)
  • Rick Perry 36% (38%) {37%} [20%] (22%)
  • Mitt Romney 18% (16%) {11%} [15%] (12%)
  • Herman Cain 14% (7%) {2%} [4%] (10%)
  • Newt Gingrich 9% (5%) {6%} [5%] (3%)
  • Ron Paul 5% (8%) {5%} [12%] (9%)
  • Sarah Palin 4% (14%) {6%} [11%] (10%)
  • Michele Bachmann 3% (4%) {14%} [11%]
  • Rick Santorum 2% (1%) {2%} [1%] (1%)
  • Jon Huntsman 1% (2%) {2%} [4%] (1%)
Tea Party Neutral (MoE: +/-8.0%)
  • Mitt Romney 24% (18%) {16%} [18%] (22%)
  • Rick Perry 22% (22%) {18%} [9%] (5%)
  • Newt Gingrich 11% (7%) {5%} [5%] (4%)
  • Sarah Palin 11% (18%) {14%} [13%] (13%)
  • Ron Paul 7% (13%) {6%} [12%] (6%)
  • Michele Bachmann 4% (4%) {6%} [3%] (5%)
  • Rick Santorum 4% (2%) {1%} [3%] (2%)
  • Herman Cain 3% (3%) {3%} [3%] (2%)
  • Jon Huntsman 2% (2%) {0%} [2%] (0%)
Among Men (MoE: +/-6.5%)
  • Rick Perry 35% (30%) {32%} [13%] (20%)
  • Mitt Romney 18% (19%) {14%} [12%] (17%)
  • Herman Cain 9% (4%) {2%} [5%] (8%)
  • Newt Gingrich 9% (6%) {6%} [7%] (4%)
  • Sarah Palin 9% (14%) {8%} [10%] (9%)
  • Ron Paul 6% (12%) {6%} [17%] (8%)
  • Michele Bachmann 2% (5%) {8%} [9%] (13%)
  • Jon Huntsman 2% (2%) {2%} [4%] (0%)
  • Rick Santorum 2% (0%) {1%} [3%] (1%)
Among Women (MoE: +/-7.0%)
  • Mitt Romney 26% (16%) {15%} [22%] (15%)
  • Rick Perry 22% (30%) {23%} [16%] (8%)
  • Newt Gingrich 11% (5%) {5%} [3%] (4%)
  • Ron Paul 8% (10%) {5%} [5%] (8%)
  • Michele Bachmann 7% (3%) {10%} [4%] (9%)
  • Herman Cain 6% (5%) {2%} [3%] (4%)
  • Sarah Palin 6% (15%) {13%} [15%] (17%)
  • Rick Santorum 4% (3%) {1%} [1%] (2%)
  • Jon Huntsman 0% (3%) {0%} [4%] (1%)
If Sarah Palin doesn't run
  • Rick Perry 30% (32%) {32%} [18%] (17%)
  • Mitt Romney 22% (21%) {18%} [23%] (22%)
  • Newt Gingrich 11% (7%) {7%} [8%] (5%)
  • Herman Cain 9% (6%) {3%} [5%] (7%)
  • Ron Paul 7% (13%) {6%} [14%] (12%)
  • Michele Bachmann 6% (7%) {12%} [9%] (14%)
  • Rick Santorum 3% (2%) {1%} [3%] (2%)
  • Jon Huntsman 1% (2%) {1%} [5%] (1%)
  • Someone else (vol.) 3% (2%) {4%} [2%] (3%)
  • None/No one (vol.) 5% (4%) {6%} [5%] (10%)
  • No opinion 3% (3%) {4%} [4%] (2%)
Survey of 447 Republicans and Republican-leaning Independents was conducted September 23-25, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted September 9-11, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted August 24-25, 2011are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 5-7, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 18-20, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted June 3-7, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 24-26, 2011 are in square brackets.

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