Tuesday, September 13, 2011

Poll Watch: PPP (D) 2012 Presidential Survey

PPP (D) 2012 Presidential Survey
  • Barack Obama 49% (45%) {45%} [47%] (49%) {47%} [47%] (47%) {46%} [48%] (47%) {46%} [45%] (43%) {45%} [46%] (44%) {44%} [45%] (44%) {47%} [48%] (48%) {48%} [47%] (49%) {48%} [53%] (50%)
  • Mitt Romney 45% (45%) {45%} [45%] (42%) {42%} [41%] (42%) {41%} [43%] (46%) {43%} [42%] (46%) {42%} [44%] (45%) {44%} [43%] (42%) {42%} [43%] (40%) {39%} [40%] (40%) {40%} [35%] (39%)
  • Barack Obama 52% (49%)
  • Rick Perry 41% (43%)
  • Barack Obama 53% [52%] (51%) {52%} [52%] (50%) {49%} [51%] (49%) {47%} [49%] (45%) {47%} [49%] (45%) [49%] (50%) {49%} [53%] (52%)
  • Newt Gingrich 41% [39%] (37%) {38%} [38%] (39%) {40%} [39%] (43%) {43%} [42%] (46%) {39%} [42%] (45%) [41%] (42%) {41%} [36%] (39%)
  • Barack Obama 53% (50%) {48%}
  • Michele Bachmann 39% (42%) {41%}
    Among Independents
    • Mitt Romney 44% (39%) {46%} [35%] (39%) {36%} [36%] (36%) {39%} [46%] (43%) {38%} [40%] (48%) {43%} [44%] (43%) {45%} [43%] (44%) {37%} [42%] (40%) {35%} [41%] (43%) {42%} [30%] (35%)
    • Barack Obama 42% (48%) {37%} [52%] (45%) {40%} [46%] (44%) {46%} [43%] (43%) {41%} [41%] (35%) {33%} [41%] (40%) {38%} [38%] (37%) {47%} [44%] (41%) {46%} [41%] (42%) {35%} [55%] (52%)
    • Barack Obama 48% (56%)
    • Rick Perry 38% (32%)
    • Barack Obama 50% (57%) {45%}
    • Michele Bachmann 33% (33%) {39%}
    • Barack Obama 53% [59%] (47%) {49%} [53%] (53%) {50%} [46%] (47%) {46%} [49%] (39%) {34%} [48%] (44%) [45%] (46%) {41%} [54%] (54%)
    • Newt Gingrich 33% [25%] (34%) {33%} [35%] (32%) {35%} [40%] (44%) {37%} [36%] (50%) {42%} [34%] (40%) [38%] (39%) {42%} [31%] (38%)
    Note: In 2008, John McCain received 44% of the Independent vote (29% of the electorate). In 2004, George W. Bush received 48% of the Independent vote. 

    Among Republicans
    • Mitt Romney 87% (83%) {83%} [86%] (77%) {81%} [81%] (77%) {77%} [78%] (87%) {82%} [80%] (82%) {79%} [78%] (82%) {80%} [80%] (77%) {78%} [83%] (77%) {72%} [74%] (71%) {74%} [66%] (71%)
    • Barack Obama 9% (5%) {8%} [9%] (13%) {10%} [7%] (9%) {7%} [12%] (9%) {7%} [5%] (7%) {8%} [9%] (6%) {7%} [10%] (9%) {8%} [6%] (10%) {14%} [11%] (18%) {19%} [18%] (16%)
    • Newt Gingrich 85% [80%] (70%) {75%} [75%] (75%) {77%} [72%] (81%) {80%} [84%] (83%) {73%} [82%] (82%) [76%] (80%) {76%} [73%] (75%)
    • Barack Obama 9% [11%] (16%) {14%} [13%] (10%) {9%} [14%] (10%) {9%} [7%] (6%) {11%} [10%] (6%) [13%] (11%) {16%} [16%] (14%)
    • Rick Perry 82% (82%)
    • Barack Obama 11% (10%)
    • Michele Bachmann 78% (81%) {79%}
    • Barack Obama 11% (9%) {8%}
    Note: In 2008, John McCain received 90% of the Republican vote (32% of the electorate). In 2004, George W. Bush received 93% of the Republican vote.

    Among Democrats 
    • Barack Obama 85% (80%) {80%} [78%] (84%) {83%} [83%] (82%) {82%} [86%] (83%) {82%} [83%] (80%) {82%} [80%] (86%) {76%} [78%] (82%) {80%} [86%] (82%) {78%} [81%] (77%) {79%} [81%] (77%) 
    • Mitt Romney 11% (13%) {13%} [14%] (12%) {12%} [9%] (13%) {10%} [8%] (12%) {12%} [9%] (14%) {12%} [13%] (10%) {16%} [13%] (7%) {14%} [11%] (12%) {14%} [11%] (13%) {13%} [11%] (14%)
    • Barack Obama 88% (83%) {82%}
    • Michele Bachmann 10% (11%) {11%}
    • Barack Obama 89% (81%)
    • Rick Perry 9% (13%)
    • Barack Obama 89% [84%] (86%) {86%} [87%] (85%) {86%} [88%] (84%) {81%} [86%] (83%) {83%} [82%] (86%) [82%] (84%)
    • Newt Gingrich 8% [11%] (10%) {11%} [6%] (10%) {8%} [8%] (10%) {15%} [8%] (12%) {10%} [12%] (11%) [12%] (12%)
    Note: In 2008, John McCain received 10% of the Democratic vote (39% of the electorate). In 2004, George W. Bush received 11% of the Democratic vote.

    Among Moderates
    • Barack Obama 63% (59%) {54%} [60%] (59%) {60%} [58%] (57%) {63%} [62%] (60%) {59%} [55%] (55%) {58%} [59%] (62%) {55%} [54%] (58%) {65%} [59%] (60%) {57%} [57%] (56%) {57%} [64%] (63%)
    • Mitt Romney 26% (24%) {33%} [30%] (28%) {27%} [26%] (28%) {21%} [28%] (33%) {31%} [29%] (33%) {26%} [30%] (27%) {31%} [31%] (26%) {24%} [31%] (28%) {30%} [30%] (32%) {28%} [24%] (26%)
    • Barack Obama 70% (66%)
    • Rick Perry 23% (18%)

    • Barack Obama 72% [69%] (64%) {66%} [66%] (65%) {68%} [66%] (64%) {62%} [62%] (58%) {61%} [65%] (66%) [60%] (61%)
    • Newt Gingrich 21% [17%] (22%) {20%} [24%] (24%) {19%} [22%] (26%) {28%} [25%] (31%) {25%} [25%] (25%) [28%] (30%)
      • Barack Obama 71% (67%) {63%}
      • Michele Bachmann 19% (22%) {22%}
      Note: In 2008, John McCain received 39% of the Moderate vote (44% of the electorate). In 2004, George W. Bush received 45% of the Moderate vote.

      Among Men
      • Mitt Romney 52% (51%) {52%} [49%] (48%) {46%} [42%] (47%) {47%} [46%] (49%) {48%} [47%] (45%) {44%} [46%] (46%) {49%} [45%] (45%) {49%} [42%] (46%) {46%} [44%] (46%) {44%} [38%] (44%)
      • Barack Obama 42% (40%) {38%} [41%] (44%) {42%} [48%] (41%) {42%} [44%] (43%) {40%} [40%] (43%) {43%} [44%] (46%) {39%} [45%] (44%) {42%} [48%] (46%) {44%} [44%] (46%{46%} [49%] (49%)
      • Rick Perry 48% (47%)
      • Barack Obama 47% (45%)

      • Newt Gingrich 47% [42%] (43%) {44%} [41%] (44%) {44%} [44%] (50%) {49%} [46%] (46%) {42%} [44%] (46%) [46%] (49%) {46%} [40%] (44%)
      • Barack Obama 47% [48%] (45%) {44%} [52%] (45%) {45%} [45%] (44%) {41%} [44%] (47%) {44%} [48%] (46%) [45%] (44%) {46%} [50%] (48%)

      • Barack Obama 47% (46%) {41%}
      • Michele Bachmann 45% (47%) {48%}
        Note: In 2008, John McCain received 48% of the Male vote (47% of the electorate). In 2004, George W. Bush received 55% of the Male vote.

        Among Women
        • Barack Obama 54% (50%) {52%} [53%] (53%) {52%} [46%] (53%) {51%} [54%] (51%) {50%} [50%] (42%) {48%} [47%] (43%) {49%} [45%] (43%) {50%} [47%] (50%) {52%} [50%] (51%) {50%} [56%] (52%)
        • Mitt Romney 38% (39%) {38%} [41%] (37%) {38%} [41%] (36%) {36%} [39%] (42%) {39%} [38%] (48%) {39%} [41%] (44%) {39%} [42%] (39%) {35%} [44%] (36%) {34%} [36%] (35%) {37%} [31%] (34%)
        • Barack Obama 58% [56%] (56%) {59%} [52%] (56%) {53%} [57%] (54%) {52%} [52%] (43%) {50%} [49%] (45%) [53%] (54%) {53%} [56%] (56%)
        • Newt Gingrich 35% [36%] (32%) {33%} [35%] (33%) {36%} [34%] (37%) {38%} [38%] (47%) {35%} [39%] (43%) [35%] (35%) {36%} [32%] (33%)
        • Barack Obama 57% (54%) {55%}
        • Michele Bachmann 34% (38%) {34%}
        • Barack Obama 57% (53%)
        • Rick Perry 34% (39%)
          Note: In 2008, John McCain received 43% of the Female vote (53% of the electorate). In 2004, George W. Bush received 48% of the Female vote.
            Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}
            • Mitt Romney 37% (35%) {36%} [37%] (35%) {32%} [32%] (32%) {33%} [36%] (36%) {33%} [35%] (32%) {31%} [33%] (33%) {32%} [37%] (36%) {32%} [30%] (34%) {33%} [37%] (37%) {41%} [40%] (40%) / 44% (48%) {42%} [47%] (48%) {41%} [43%] (44%) {42%} [40%] (42%) {35%} [37%] (33%) {36%} [36%] (42%) {39%} [28%] (32%) {36%} [39%] (34%) {38%} [34%] (37%){36%} [36%] (35%) {-7%}
            • Rick Perry 30% (33%) / 50% (47%) {-20%}
            • Michele Bachmann 30% (34%) {29%} / 53% (52%) {45%} {-23%}
            • Newt Gingrich 28% [16%] (19%) {29%} [28%] (26%) {27%} [31%] (33%) {30%} [31%] (32%) {28%} [29%] (34%) [33%] (36%) {35%} [30%] (36%) / 57% [68%] (64%) {53%} [55%] (57%) {52%} [52%] (53%) {50%} [48%] (42%) {46%} [48%] (47%) [42%] (42%) {46%} [47%] (44%) {-29%}
            Among Independents
            • Mitt Romney 44% (35%) {45%} [37%] (39%) {29%} [27%] (33%) {28%} [43%] (33%) {31%} [34%] (30%) {34%} [32%] (30%) {37%} [44%] (41%) {28%} [31%] (38%) {38%} [40%] (45%) {40%} [37%] (36%) / 39% (47%) {39%} [49%] (45%) {40%} [44%] (45%) {42%} [31%] (46%) {36%} [40%] (34%) {32%} [35%] (41%) {34%} [22%] (32%) {39%} [37%] (28%) {33%} [31%] (28%) {33%} [42%] (39%) {+5%}
            • Rick Perry 23% (29%) / 51% (55%) {-28%}
            • Michele Bachmann 23% (26%) {28%} / 58% (60%) {47%} {-35%}
            • Newt Gingrich 22% [10%] (12%) {24%} [29%] (20%) {20%} [28%] (31%) {21%} [24%] (32%) {27%} [27%] (29%) [34%] (31%) / 60% [76%] (68%) {58%} [56%] (65%) {60%} [51%] (54%) {56%} [51%] (40%) {43%} [51%] (51%) [45%] (44%) {-38%}
            Among Republicans
            • Rick Perry 61% (62%) / 21% (16%) {+40%}
            • Mitt Romney 59% (51%) {49%} [53%] (50%) {48%} [50%] (47%) {54%} [50%] (59%) {56%} [57%] (54%) {49%} [55%] (52%) {57%} [58%] (56%) {51%} [48%] (54%) {50%} [52%] (54%) {63%} [67%] (60%) / 26% (35%) {31%} [32%] (32%) {30%} [24%] (26%) {23%} [30%] (21%) {20%} [18%] (18%) {18%} [17%] (25%) {20%} [14%] (17%) {15%} [19%] (20%) {21%} [18%] (25%) {21%} [17%] (21%) {+33%}
            • Newt Gingrich 53% [32%] (38%) {52%} [52%] (49%) {54%} [55%] (58%) {54%} [61%] (60%) {50%} [55%] (62%) [56%] (65%) / 34% [50%] (45%) {32%} [28%] (30%) {23%} [26%] (27%) {23%} [21%] (17%) {22%} [19%] (17%) [21%] (17%) {+19%}
            • Michele Bachmann 45% (57%) {45%} / 39% (28%) {27%} {+6%}
            Among Democrats
            • Michele Bachmann 21% (16%) {16%} / 62% (69%) {58%} {-41%}
            • Mitt Romney 15% (20%) {20%} [23%] (18%) {20%} [19%] (17%) {16%} [20%] (19%) {15%} [16%] (14%) {16%} [16%] (15%) {10%} [15%] (12%) {18%} [14%] (15%) {15%} [23%] (20%) {24%} [20%] (27%) / 63% (61%) {52%} [60%] (64%) {51%} [60%] (60%) {58%} [55%] (59%) {49%} [53%] (45%) {53%} [51%] (60%) {56%} [44%] (47%) {53%} [56%] (48%) {55%} [49%] (52%) {49%} [49%] (45%) {-48%}
            • Newt Gingrich 10% [6%] (7%) {13%} [5%] (9%) {6%} [11%] (13%) {13%} [9%] (8%) {10%} [7%] (9%) [13%] (13%) / 74% [78%] (80%){67%} [79%] (77%) {76%} [75%] (74%) {71%} [71%] (66%) {66%} [72%] (74%) [57%] (61%) {-64%}
            • Rick Perry 9% (10%) / 74% (71%) {-65%}
              Among Moderates
              • Mitt Romney 30% (32%) {36%} [35%] (34%) {27%} [31%] (30%) {23%} [31%] (33%) {30%} [29%] (26%) {26%} [29%] (25%) {22%} [37%] (30%) {23%} [26%] (29%) {32%} [34%] (33%) {35%} [35%] (34%) / 46% (51%) {39%} [47%] (45%) {45%} [44%] (45%) {41%} [42%] (45%) {39%} [42%] (34%) {42%} [36%] (49%) {48%} [29%] (38%) {44%} [37%] (37%) {41%} [36%] (39%) {40%} [42%] (44%) {-16%}
              • Michele Bachmann 19% (19%) {17%} / 58% (66%) {53%} {-39%}
              • Rick Perry 19% (17%) / 58% (60%) {-39%}
              • Newt Gingrich 14% [7%] (11%) {15%} [23%] (15%) {10%} [18%] (18%) {17%} [19%] (19%) {19%} [18%] (18%) [24%] (24%) {23%} [21%] (23%) / 66% [81%] (76%) {65%} [63%] (69%) {63%} [65%] (67%) {63%} [59%] (53%) {55%} [59%] (64%) [49%] (52%) {53%} [58%] (60%) {-52%}
              Among Men
              • Mitt Romney 40% (38%) {40%} [41%] (40%) {32%} [29%] (34%) {39%} [40%] (39%) {37%} [40%] (31%) {33%} [34%] (34%) {37%} [40%] (42%) {37%} [32%] (39%) {34%} [42%] (42%) {44%} [45%] (45%) / 46% (48%) {43%} [48%] (46%) {42%} [46%] (47%) {43%} [42%] (43%) {40%} [37%] (36%) {39%} [41%] (49%) {38%} [29%] (35%) {37%} [41%] (35%) {43%} [37%] (38%) {38%} [34%] (39%) {-6%}
              • Rick Perry 36% (38%) / 51% (47%) {-15%}
              • Newt Gingrich 31% [18%] (20%) {31%} [32%] (32%) {34%} [36%] (40%) {36%} [37%] (32%) {32%} [30%] (37%) [38%] (44%) / 55% [70%] (65%) {52%} [56%] (55%) {51%} [50%] (47%) {46%} [47%] (45%) {46%} [50%] (51%) [41%] (37%) {-24%}
              • Michele Bachmann 31% (37%) {32%} / 55% (50%) {48%} {-24%}
              Among Women
              • Mitt Romney 35% (32%) {32%} [34%] (30%) {32%} [34%] (30%) {27%} [32%] (34%) {31%} [30%] (34%) {30%} [33%] (31%) {27%} [35%] (31%) {27%} [28%] (29%) {31%} [33%] (34%) {39%} [36%] (36%) / 43% (48%) {41%} [47%] (49%) {40%} [40%] (41%) {40%} [38%] (42%) {32%} [38%] (29%) {34%} [31%] (35%) {40%} [27%] (30%) {35%} [35%] (32%) {33%} [32%] (36%) {34%} [38%] (32%) {-8%}
              • Michele Bachmann 28% (31%) {26%} / 51% (53%) {42%} {-23%}
              • Rick Perry 25% (29%) / 49% (48%) {-24%}
              • Newt Gingrich 24% [15%] (19%) {26%} [24%] (20%) {21%} [26%] (26%) {25%} [26%] (32%) {23%} [28%] (31%) [28%] (28%) / 58% [65%] (64%) {54%} [54%] (60%) {54%} [53%] (57%) {53%} [49%] (39%) {46%} [47%] (43%) [42%] (46%) {-34%}
                  If you could redo the 2008 election for President, would you vote for Democrat Barack Obama or Republican John McCain?
                  • Barack Obama 51%
                  • John McCain 46%
                  Do you believe in global warming or not?
                  • Believe in global warming 54%
                  • Do not 37%
                  Do you believe in evolution or not?
                  • Believe in evolution 51%
                  • Do not 37%
                  Would you support eliminating Social Security or not?
                  • Would support eliminating Social Security 10%
                  • Would not 82%
                  Do you agree or disagree with the following statement? “Social Security is a Ponzi Scheme.”
                  • Agree 20%
                  • Disagree 70%
                  Survey of 665 registered voters was conducted September 8-11, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 3.8 percentage points. Party ID breakdown: 41% (41%) {42%} [40%] (39%) {40%} [38%] (40%) {42%} [40%] (42%) {41%} [39%] (39%) {43%} [41%] (38%) {43%} [40%] {38%} (36%) [39%] Democrat; 34% (37%) {33%} [35%] (35%) {34%} [34%] (36%) {38%} [37%] (35%) {36%} [35%] (34%) {34%} [35%] (38%) {33%} [34%] {34%} (35%) [34%] Republican; 25% (21%) {25%} [25%] (25%) {27%} [28%] (24%) {20%} [23%] (23%) {23%} [25%] (27%) {24%} [24%] (24%) {24%} [26%] {28%} (29%) [27%] Independent/Other. Political views: 31% (31%) {36%} [31%] (31%) {33%} [34%] (33%) {30%} Moderate; 24% (25%) {21%} [23%] (24%) {22%} [27%] (25%) {25%} Somewhat conservative; 17% (18%) {15%} [19%] (17%) {18%} [18%] (17%) {18%} Somewhat liberal; 16% (17%) {17%} [18%] (18%) {18%} [14%] (17%) {19%} Very conservative; 12% (9%) {10%} [9%] (9%) {9%} [8%] (8%) {8%} Very liberal.  Results from the poll conducted August 18-21, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted July 15-17, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted June 9-12, 2011 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted May 23-25, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted May 5-8, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 7-10, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 31 - April 3, 2011 are in angle brackets.  Results from the poll conducted March 10-13, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted February 11-14, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conductedJanuary 14-16, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted November 19-21, 2010 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted September 10-13, 2010 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 6-9, 2010 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted July 9-12, 2010 are in parentheses.Results from the poll conducted June 4-7, 2010 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted May 7-9, 2010 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted April 9-11, 2010 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted March 12-14, 2010 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted February 13-15, 2010 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted January 18-19, 2010 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted December 4-7,2009 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted November 13-15, 2009 are in square brackets. Results from the poll onducted October 16-19, 2009 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted September 18-21, 2009 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conductedAugust 14-17, 2009 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted July 15-16, 2009 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted June 12-16,2009 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted May 14-18, 2009 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted April 17-19, 2009 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted March 13-15, 2009 are in angle brackets.

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