Poll Watch: Rasmussen 2012 Presidential Survey

Rasmussen 2012 Presidential Survey

• Barack Obama 47% [50%] (47%) {48%} [49%] (46%)
• Sarah Palin 35% [33%] (38%) {38%} [38%] (43%)

Among Independents

• Barack Obama 45% [51%]
• Sarah Palin 32% [30%]

Survey of 1,000 likely voters was conducted August 31 - September 1, 2011.  The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted August 11-12, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted July 16-17, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted between March 10-13, 2011 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted between January 7-10, 2011 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted November 24, 2009 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

Palin is scheduled to make a major appearance at a Tea Party gathering in Iowa today with many speculating about what she might announce. Voters aren’t really sure if she’ll run for president, but 60% think it would be bad for the GOP if Palin enters the race. Even most Republicans (52%) feel that way.

Obama now picks up 83% of the Democratic voter against Palin and leads among voters not affiliated with either major party by a 45% to 32% margin. Palin captures 66% of the Republican vote, with nearly one-in-four GOP voters (22%) favoring another candidate or undecided.  

Eighty-four percent (84%) of Tea Party voters prefer Palin. Sixty percent (60%) of those who are not members of the grass roots movement opt for the president.

Obama leads by six points among male voters and 18 points among female voters. Voters under 40 strongly prefer the president, but the gap between the two is narrower among older voters.