Poll Watch: Rasmussen New Hampshire 2012 Republican Primary Survey

Rasmussen New Hampshire 2012 GOP Primary Survey

• Mitt Romney 33% {34%} [41%] (39%)
• Newt Gingrich 22% {24%} [8%] (4%) 
• Ron Paul 18% {14%} [11%] (13%)
• Jon Huntsman 10% {11%} [7%] (7%)
• Rick Perry 3% {2%} [4%] (18%)
• Michele Bachmann 3% {2%} [3%] (5%)
• Rick Santorum 3% {1%} [1%] (2%)

Would it be good or bad for the Republican Party for Mitch Daniels to enter the presidential race at this time?

• Good 10%
• Bad 44%
• No impact 23%
• Not sure 23%

Would it be good or bad for the Republican Party for Sarah Palin to enter the presidential race at this time?

• Good 15%
• Bad 70%
• No impact 10%
• Not sure 6%

If Mitch Daniels enters the Republican Primary for President how likely is it that you would vote for him?

• Very likely 3%
• Somewhat likely 10%

If Sarah Palin enters the Republican Primary for President how likely is it that you would vote for her?

• Very likely 9%
• Somewhat likely 14%

Survey of 721 likely Republican primary voters was conducted December 12, 2011. The margin of error is ± 4 percentage points.  Results from the poll conducted November 28, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted October 25, 2011 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted September 21, 2011 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

Forty-seven percent (47%) of New Hampshire GOP primary voters are now certain of how they will vote, up from 42% two weeks ago. Just over half (53%) say they could change their minds between now and the January 10 primary. 

Romney also remains the candidate best-liked by New Hampshire GOP primary voters: 27% share a Very Favorable opinion of him. Nineteen percent (19%) view Paul Very Favorably, while 16% hold a Very Favorable impression of Gingrich. Perry and Santorum are the least-liked with Very Favorables of four percent (4%) and nine percent (9%) respectively. 

A plurality of New Hampshire Republican voters (45%) thinks Romney would be the strongest opponent against President Obama in the general election, while 29% say that of Gingrich and 10% of Paul. Thirty-one percent (31%) view Bachmann as the weakest general election candidate, but 20% say that of Paul. On the national level, Gingrich is the clear favorite among GOP voters as the strongest opponent to Obama. 

Eighty-one percent (81%) of New Hampshire GOP primary voters believe the candidates’ performances in debates are at least somewhat important to how they vote, but just 27% see them as Very Important. Thirty-one percent (31%) believe there have been too many debates so far, but 52% say there’s been about the right amount.