Poll Watch: PPP (D) South Carolina 2012 Republican Primary Survey

PPP (D) South Carolina 2012 GOP Primary Poll

• Newt Gingrich 35% (34%) {24%} [23%] (8%) {15%}
• Mitt Romney 29% (28%) {29%} [30%] (16%) {30%}
• Ron Paul 15% (15%) {15%} [9%] (5%) {10%}
• Rick Santorum 15% (14%) {14%} [19%] (4%)
• Someone else/Not sure 5% (2%) {6%} [9%] (7%) {11%}

Among Men

• Newt Gingrich 39%
• Mitt Romney 27%
• Ron Paul 16%
• Rick Santorum 14%
• Someone else/Not sure 4%

Among Women

• Mitt Romney 32%
• Newt Gingrich 31%
• Rick Santorum 17%
• Ron Paul 14%
• Someone else/Not sure 6%

Would you say you are strongly committed to that candidate, or might you end up supporting someone else?

• Strongly committed to that candidate 77% (80%) {65%} [59%]
• Might end up supporting someone else 23% (20%) {35%} [41%]

Among Those Strongly Committed to Candidate

• Newt Gingrich 39%
• Mitt Romney 32%
• Ron Paul 15%
• Rick Santorum 14%

Second Choice

• Rick Santorum 20% (16%) {17%} [21%]
• Newt Gingrich 17% (17%) {20%} [14%]
• Mitt Romney 16% (18%) {17%} [16%]
• Ron Paul 10% (11%) {9%} [7%]
• Someone else/Not sure 37% (22%) {16%} [26%]

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Rick Santorum 54% (53%) {53%} [63%] (34%) {31%} [25%] / 35% (41%) {30%} [21%] (19%) {16%} [7%] {+19%} 
• Newt Gingrich 53% (54%) {51%} [49%] (42%) {37%} [54%] / 38% (38%) {37%} [39%] (40%) {44%} [25%] {+15%}
• Mitt Romney 51% (54%) {57%} [60%] (52%) {56%} [60%] / 40% (41%) {33%} [29%] (32%) {27%} [22%] {+11%}
• Ron Paul 39% (40%) {38%} [33%] (35%) {38%} [47%] / 51% (49%) {52%} [54%] (35%) {31%} [19%] {-12%}

Do you consider yourself to be a member of the Tea Party?

• Yes 25% (28%) {30%} [31%]
• No 66% (65%) {57%} [57%]

Among Tea Party Members

• Newt Gingrich 46%
• Mitt Romney 21%
• Rick Santorum 17%
• Ron Paul 14%
• Someone else/Not sure 1%

Are you an Evangelical Christian, or not?

• Are 56% (52%) {56%} [57%]
• Are not 44% (48%) {44%} [43%]

Among Evangelical Christians

• Newt Gingrich 40%
• Mitt Romney 22%
• Rick Santorum 19%
• Ron Paul 14%
• Someone else/Not sure 6%

Survey of 836 likely South Carolina Republican primary voters was conducted January 18-19, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 3.4 percentage points. Party ID breakdown: 76% (77%) {80%} [82%] (80%) {78%} [81%] Republican; 20% (16%) {17%} [14%] (18%) {19%} [18%] Independent/Other; 4%  (7%) {3%} [3%] (1%) {3%} [0%] Democrat. Political ideology: 41% (43%) {40%} [41%] (40%) {41%} Very conservative; 36% (35%) {37%} [38%] (39%) {36%} Somewhat conservative; 17% (15%) {18%} [15%] (16%) {17%} Moderate; 4% (5%) {2%} [4%] (4%) {3%} Somewhat liberal; 2% (2%) {2%} [3%] (1%) {3%} Very liberal.  Results from the poll conducted January 18, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted January 11-13, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 5-7, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 25-28, 2011 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted June 2-5, 2011 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted January 28-30, 2011 are in square brackets.