Poll Watch: Washington Times/Zogby 2012 Presidential Survey

Washington Times/Zogby 2012 Presidential Poll

• Barack Obama (D) 49.7% (44.5%) [49.7%] {45.7%} (42.0%) [43.2%]
• Mitt Romney (R) 47.3% (45.1%) [41.1%] {45.7%} (42.8%) [43.6%]
• Not sure 3.0% (10.4%) [9.2%] {5%} [13.0%]

(Among Obama Voters) Which of the following best describes why you are voting for Barack Obama?

• Want to see him re-elected 56% (66.6%) [61.3%]
• Really dislike Romney 14% (14.7%) [14.5%]
• He is the lesser of two evils 13.8% (8.2%) [11.7%]
• Simply voting for Democrat 11.4% (8.5%) [9.1%]
• Not sure 4.8% (2.0%) [3.4%]

(Among Romney Voters) Which of the following best describes why you are voting for Mitt Romney?

• Think he is the best candidate 70.5% (69.4%) [58.2%]
• Really dislike Obama 15.5% (13.4%) [16.0%]
• He is the lesser of two evils 11.1% (12.8%) [16.1%]
• Simply voting for GOP 1.7% (2.4%) [5.8%]
• Not sure 1.3% (2.1%) [3.9%]

Based on what you saw or read about the second presidential debate, who do you think won?

• Barack Obama 41.5% (14.4%)
• Mitt Romney 27.9% (64.9%)
• It was a tie 26.8% (13.0%)
• Not sure 3.9% (7.7%)

Note: Results from the poll conducted after the first presidential debate are in parentheses.

In the debate, Mitt Romney said he can cut tax rates across the board to boost jobs while still finding a way to balance the deficit. Barack Obama said the math doesn't add up, and
Romney cannot do both. Which do you think is correct?

• Romney's math adds up - he can cut taxes and balance the budget 41.1% (43.7%)
• Romney's math doesn't add up, and he cannot do both 49.0% (43.7%)
• Not sure 9.8% (12.6%)
  

Note: Results from the poll conducted after the first presidential debate are in parentheses.

 

Regardless of whom you support, who do you think will win November's presidential election?

• Barack Obama 49.4% (54.1%) [57.4%] {48%} (44.9%)
• Mitt Romney 37.7% (32.4%) [29.9%] {37%} (32.8%)

Who do you think would make a better first lady?

• Michelle Obama 36.3%
• Ann Romney 25.9%
• Both equally suited 17.2%
• Don't prefer either 11.9%
• Not sure 8.8%

Who is to blame for mishandling the terrorist attack on the U.S. Consulate in Libya that left the ambassador and three other Americans dead?

• White House 29.2%
• State Dept. 16.1%
• Defense Dept. 5.2%
• Congress 3.1%
• No one -- the attack was not mishandled 30.3%
• Not sure 16.1%
  

Survey of 800 likely voters was conducted October 18-20, 2012.  The margin of error is +/- 3.5 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted October 5-7, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted September 27-29, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 23-25, 2012 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted July 6-8, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted May 11-12, 2012 are in square brackets. 

Inside the numbers:

Mr. Romney holds a slight lead among independents (49%-42%) and the two candidates are nearly tied among women, with Mr. Obama polling 50% to Mr. Romney’s 47%. On the other hand, the two are pretty much tied among men now (Obama 49% to Romney’s 47%). Thus, the real gap, as noted before in this column, is the marriage gap – especially married women vs. single women.

Mr. Romney now hits 58% among white voters, his best performance yet, but Mr. Obama is outperforming his 2008 showing by polling 40%. As I have written before, the former Massachusetts Governor must get an even larger share of whites to offset what will be a declining share of the total vote in 2012. Mr. Obama continues to consolidate his leads among Hispanics (74%-26%, larger than his 67%-31% victory in 2008) and African Americans (89%-6%, compared with 95%-5% in 2008).

Adding Libertarian Party nominee Gary Johnson and other third-party candidates into the mix doesn’t change the race much. Mr. Johnson collects 3 percent of the vote, and others get less — and Mr. Obama still leads Mr. Romney by 2 percentage points.

Mr. Obama was seen as the winner of last week’s second presidential debate, 42 percent to 28 percent, over Mr. Romney, according to the 80 percent of likely voters who watched at least part of it. But the debate didn’t move the needle much — about 6 percent said it swayed them toward Mr. Obama, and 7 percent said they moved toward Mr. Romney.