Poll Watch: Rasmussen (R) North Carolina 2012 Presidential Survey

Rasmussen (R) North Carolina 2012 Presidential Poll

• Mitt Romney 51% [51%] (49%) {47%} [51%] (46%) 
• Barack Obama 47% [45%] (44%) {44%} [43%] (44%)
• Some other candidate 1% [1%] (3%) {3%} [2%] (4%)
• Undecided 1% [3%] (4%) {6%} [4%] (6%) 

Among Men

• Mitt Romney 59%
• Barack Obama 41%

Among Women

• Barack Obama 52%
• Mitt Romney 44%

Do you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or very unfavorable impression of Mitt Romney?

• Very favorable 31% [33%] (23%) {22%} [23%] (16%)
• Somewhat favorable 20% [21%] (27%) {28%} [31%] (36%)
• Somewhat unfavorable 11% [16%] (17%) {23%} [20%] (24%)
• Very unfavorable 36% [26%] (30%) {23%} [23%] (18%)

How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as president?

• Strongly approve 35% [34%] (31%) {29%} [28%] (31%)
• Somewhat approve 14% [14%] (16%) {16%} [18%] (17%)
• Somewhat disapprove 6% [6%] (5%) {10%} [9%] (7%)
• Strongly disapprove 44% [45%] (46%) {44%} [45%] (43%)

Survey of 500 likely voters was conducted October 2, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted September 13, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted August 1, 2012 are in parentheses.  Results from the poll conducted June 25, 2012 are in curly brackets.  Results from the poll conducted May 14, 2012 are in square brackets.  Results from the poll conducted April 10, 2012 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

Overall, 95% of North Carolina voters are certain they will vote this election. Among those who are certain to vote, 51% prefer Romney, while 48% support Obama.

Romney draws support from 82% of Republicans and 22% of Democrats in North Carolina. Obama earns the support from 76% of voters in his own party. Among voters not affiliated with either political party, it’s Romney 60%, Obama 36%.

Most voters under 40 support the president, while their elders favor Romney.

Forty-five percent (45%) of voters in the state believe if Romney is elected president and Republicans win control of Congress, the U.S. economy will get better. That's not much more confidence than the 41% who believe the same if Obama is reelected and Democrats regain control of Congress. Still, 50% feel the economy will get worse if Obama wins a second term, while just 38% think that if Romney wins the election.

Perhaps that helps explain why voters trust Romney slightly more than Obama – 50% to 47% - to handle the economy, the most important issue this election. The two are nearly tied in North Carolina when it comes to national security issues: 49% trust the former Massachusetts governor more, while 47% have more faith in the incumbent.